Market impact of Iran oil shock (with Vonnie Quinn)

dxy

the US dollar in particular is a major gainer, relative to say Europe and Asia. Trivedi explicitly states the dollar is a beneficiary of the oil shock due to terms-of-trade effects, indicating upward pressure.

12/3/2025 6:14:08 PM	medium term down	20 days later	-1.02%	+1.02%
12/2/2025 3:26:12 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.92%	+0.46%
11/12/2025 4:28:43 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.33%	+0.17%
10/15/2025 9:58:39 AM	long term cautious down	60 days later	-0.24%	+0.12%
9/29/2025 2:12:26 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.35%	-0.17%

yields

The direction of travel is justified. It's an inflationary shock from higher oil prices. Trivedi explicitly validates the recent yield increase as a justified reaction to the inflationary oil shock, implying continued upward pressure in the short term as the shock unfolds.

2/12/2026 6:36:08 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+2.22%	-1.11%
1/30/2026 6:19:23 AM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-5.75%	+2.88%
12/9/2025 6:20:53 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.82%	+0.41%
11/28/2025 6:04:11 PM	medium term down	21 days later	+1.78%	-1.78%
11/13/2025 8:45:53 PM	short term down	5 days later	-0.36%	+0.36%
11/7/2025 7:28:39 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-0.34%	+0.17%
10/29/2025 5:37:32 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.98%	-0.49%
10/28/2025 6:42:40 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.60%	-0.80%
10/28/2025 1:59:32 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.18%	-0.59%
10/24/2025 6:55:30 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+3.40%	-1.70%
10/15/2025 9:58:39 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+4.55%	-2.28%
10/7/2025 1:51:58 PM	short term up	5 days later	-1.89%	-1.89%
9/29/2025 2:12:26 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.34%	-0.17%
9/16/2025 4:19:00 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.25%	-0.63%
9/11/2025 1:30:06 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.37%	-0.18%
9/9/2025 10:35:22 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.05%	-0.02%
9/5/2025 6:25:27 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+2.35%	-1.17%
9/3/2025 7:20:32 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-2.44%	+1.22%
9/2/2025 1:47:03 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-3.92%	-5.88%
8/12/2025 11:12:01 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+2.43%	-1.22%
8/6/2025 7:05:41 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.14%	+0.07%
8/1/2025 6:12:49 PM	short term down	7 days later	+1.74%	-1.74%

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