AI-driven bond market dynamics and fixed income outlook (with Haslinda Amin)

Hyperscalers have raised over $150B this year, ~1/3 in non-USD currencies. Investment grade yields at 5.25%+ are attractive historically. No indigestion risk seen - higher issuance correlated with positive returns. Front-end rates likely higher for longer. Favor IG credit for safety+carry, Asia high yield for 8%+ returns, and EM for growth diversification.

explicit

implicit

RUT

implicit

Metals

explicit

Goldman Sachs 9.0
Investment Bank $2500.00B
Samuel T. S. 9.0

AI-driven bond market dynamics and fixed income outlook (with Haslinda Amin)

dxy

Once the markets get past this energy shock, the fiscal funding needs are likely to put more pressure on the dollar. And that's a tailwind to be in emerging markets.

8 calls

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

3/24/2026 3:04:57 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-1.49%	+0.74%
3/4/2026 2:04:00 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.49%	-0.49%
12/3/2025 6:14:08 PM	medium term down	20 days later	-1.02%	+1.02%
12/2/2025 3:26:12 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.92%	+0.46%
11/12/2025 4:28:43 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.33%	+0.17%
10/15/2025 9:58:39 AM	long term cautious down	60 days later	-0.24%	+0.12%
9/29/2025 2:12:26 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.35%	-0.17%

Show all 7 dxy results

ndx

Hyperscalers continue to raise massive amounts for AI CapEx ($725B planned this year), with strong demand for their bonds. The guest notes 'the market is really excited about these issuances' and companies have significant leverage capacity. This implies continued strength in tech/AI-related equities.

wti

The guest notes 'energy shock' as a key uncertainty and that inflation from energy shock is 'worth watching.' The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked with no definitive end, creating ongoing supply pressure.

yields

Front-end rates stay higher for longer until it becomes very clear that the policy is restrictive and the inflation from energy shock and tariffs is not leading to second-order effects.

27 calls

-2

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

5/5/2026 1:43:30 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+1.24%	+0.62%
4/20/2026 7:09:00 AM	medium term up	20 days later	+2.75%	+2.75%
3/4/2026 2:04:00 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.24%	-0.24%
2/12/2026 6:36:08 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+2.22%	-1.11%
1/30/2026 6:19:23 AM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-5.75%	+2.88%
12/9/2025 6:20:53 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.82%	+0.41%
11/28/2025 6:04:11 PM	medium term down	21 days later	+1.78%	-1.78%
11/13/2025 8:45:53 PM	short term down	5 days later	-0.36%	+0.36%
11/7/2025 7:28:39 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-0.34%	+0.17%
10/29/2025 5:37:32 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.98%	-0.49%
10/28/2025 6:42:40 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.60%	-0.80%
10/28/2025 1:59:32 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.18%	-0.59%
10/24/2025 6:55:30 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+3.40%	-1.70%
10/15/2025 9:58:39 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+4.55%	-2.28%
10/7/2025 1:51:58 PM	short term up	5 days later	-1.89%	-1.89%
9/29/2025 2:12:26 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.34%	-0.17%
9/16/2025 4:19:00 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.25%	-0.63%
9/11/2025 1:30:06 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.37%	-0.18%
9/9/2025 10:35:22 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.05%	-0.02%
9/5/2025 6:25:27 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+2.35%	-1.17%
9/3/2025 7:20:32 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-2.44%	+1.22%
9/2/2025 1:47:03 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-3.92%	-5.88%
8/12/2025 11:12:01 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+2.43%	-1.22%
8/6/2025 7:05:41 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.14%	+0.07%
8/1/2025 6:12:49 PM	short term down	7 days later	+1.74%	-1.74%

Show all 25 yields results

Haslinda Amin

Alphabet sold its biggest tranche of Euro-denominated bonds and first Canadian dollar notes, raising nearly $17 billion. Hyperscalers plan to spend as much as $725 billion this year on AI data center equipment and other CapEx.
Samuel T. S.

Hyperscalers have raised north of $150 billion this year, about a third in non-USD currencies. They're tapping various funding sources because their buildout is global. The investment grade market is digesting this fine - yields at 5.25%+ are historically attractive. In the last 25 years, every time IG yields were above 4%, only one year had negative 12-month returns. Higher net issuance has no negative correlation with excess returns.
Haslinda Amin

Is there any risk of indigestion? Are we too complacent?
Samuel T. S.

From a credit standpoint, not yet worried. Even without growth from AI CapEx ROI, the IG companies still have strong capital structures. Front-end rates likely stay higher for longer until it's clear inflation from energy shock and tariffs is not leading to second-order effects.
Haslinda Amin

Is piling into investment grade getting crowded? Is this herd mentality?
Samuel T. S.

The rate market has capacity to protect against growth shocks - potentially up to 200bps of growth protection. IG with 5-year duration fits nicely: 5.25-5.5% carry balances risk. Fixed income provides stability in portfolio core, not excitement.
Haslinda Amin

What are government bond yields saying? Still quite high.
Samuel T. S.

By historic standards yields are high. Inflation risk plus term premium for fiscal deficits are being priced in. The market has shifted from pricing 3 rate cuts earlier in the year to potentially one hike over the next 12 months. The curve has flattened suggesting near-term inflationary shock.
Haslinda Amin

What yield trajectory are you forecasting for the next 12 months?
Samuel T. S.

Rather than directional rate views, conviction is across markets. Front-end rates stay higher for longer. Favor: 1) higher quality floating rate markets (securitized, bank loans) - stay in quality as growth risk premium not attractively priced; 2) once past energy shock, fiscal funding needs pressure dollar - tailwind for EM; 3) Asia high yield where you can earn 8%+ with capital appreciation; 4) IG for safety plus carry.
Haslinda Amin

What about JGBs after the most hawkish BOJ meeting?
Samuel T. S.

Energy shock historically viewed as transient, but policymakers have fresh memory of 2021-22 where COVID supply disruption plus energy shock created well-beyond-expected inflation. Right for policymakers to watch closely. For Fed to hike is a very big step; for BOJ to hike is much smaller given inflationary pressures. They have to balance inflation vs growth with headwind from energy imports.
Haslinda Amin

How about JGBs? The most hawkish meeting from Bank of Japan still disappointed markets.
Samuel T. S.

Policymakers have a fresh memory of the 2021-2022 experience where COVID supply chain disruption plus an energy shock created an inflationary impulse well beyond what you'd expect. It's right for policymakers to watch closely. For the Fed to hike is a very big step; for the BOJ to hike is a much smaller step given inflationary pressures. They have to balance inflation versus growth given the headwind from energy imports.

SignalTube