Geopolitical tensions (Iran/China) and rising oil prices are fueling inflation fears, pressuring yields higher. UK gilt yields face headwinds from fiscal concerns. Despite this, the Nasdaq is seen finding fair value at 30k driven by AI and earnings, though Fed rate cut expectations are challenged by sticky inflation. The path of least resistance for yields is up.
Yields
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
The Trump Organization, Inc 3.0
Real Estate
Donald Trump 9.0
Iran War: Trump Says Ceasefire on 'Life Support' Ahead of China Visit | Daybreak Europe 5/12/2026
5/12/2026 10:12:49 AM
ndx
the fair value of NASDAQ is 30,000 and I think NASDAQ will find that one or the other way to get to that level in a few months
32 calls
+3
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
5/1/2026 8:16:28 PM short term up 7 days later +6.04% +6.04%
4/24/2026 2:19:58 PM short term up 7 days later +1.27% +1.27%
4/23/2026 11:57:20 PM short term up 5 days later -0.43% -0.43%
4/17/2026 2:08:13 PM short term up 7 days later +2.69% +2.69%
4/8/2026 2:17:04 PM short term up 5 days later +3.03% +3.03%
4/2/2026 6:55:00 AM short term up 5 days later +3.57% +3.57%
4/1/2026 4:30:39 PM short term up 5 days later +0.65% +0.65%
3/26/2026 6:00:03 PM short term down 5 days later +3.84% -3.84%
1/21/2026 7:26:12 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later -1.24% -1.86%
1/21/2026 6:33:54 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.65% +2.48%
1/13/2026 7:24:32 PM short term up 5 days later +0.25% +0.25%
10/29/2025 12:29:34 PM short term up 5 days later -1.16% -1.16%
10/29/2025 9:51:12 AM short term up 5 days later -1.16% -1.16%
10/24/2025 2:17:33 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +0.59% +0.29%
10/24/2025 10:29:43 AM short term up 7 days later +0.59% +0.59%
10/20/2025 1:11:12 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.93% +0.96%
10/14/2025 10:09:14 AM short term up 5 days later +1.60% +1.60%
8/6/2025 7:02:59 PM short term up 5 days later +1.92% +1.92%
7/23/2025 9:26:43 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.38% +0.57%
Show all 19 ndx results
wti
Ven Ram notes oil prices are rising due to geopolitics and that this is feeding into inflation concerns, pressuring yields. He does not explicitly forecast oil direction but implies upward pressure.
yields
the path of least resistance is for yields to climb higher from here
14 calls
-5
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
4/24/2026 2:19:58 PM short term down 7 days later +2.54% -2.54%
4/10/2026 10:07:57 AM short term cautious up 7 days later -1.09% -0.55%
1/21/2026 5:03:46 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.61% +0.31%
1/14/2026 12:51:07 AM short term down 5 days later +3.25% -3.25%
11/19/2025 9:13:01 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.53% +1.27%
10/15/2025 10:20:54 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.33% +0.16%
10/1/2025 5:00:19 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.95% -0.48%
8/12/2025 5:24:13 PM short term down 5 days later +2.43% -2.43%
8/5/2025 4:44:03 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.26% -0.63%
7/22/2025 9:00:04 PM short term sharp down 5 days later +0.73% -1.09%
7/17/2025 8:55:47 AM medium term up 20 days later -4.24% -4.24%
7/17/2025 8:15:49 AM medium term down 20 days later -4.24% +4.24%
Show all 12 yields results

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