Tom White analyzes the Fed's decision to hold rates steady, noting that 9 of 18 FOMC participants penciled in a rate hike for 2026, and the median 2026 GDP forecast was lowered to 2.2%. He expects new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to face hardball questions in his first press conference, potentially signaling a shift toward less transparency and more internal debate. White sees a bifurcated outlook: resilient consumer spending and strong earnings support risk assets, while falling crude oil prices may ease inflation, but the Fed's hawkish tilt could push yields higher.
implicit
implicit
explicit
Metals
USD
Bitcoin cautious down
Charles Schwab
7.8
Asset Manager $890.00B
Tom White 4.0
Asset Manager $890.00B
Tom White 4.0
6/17/2026 9:13:17 PM
ndx
Tom White states that robust retail sales and blowout earnings support a 'risk on aspect into the equity market,' implying a positive near-term outlook for equities including NDX.
rut
The positive risk-on sentiment driven by strong earnings and consumer spending supports small-cap equities (RUT) in the near term.
wti
Crude oil that's falling with the potential deal getting signed this week.
| 6/11/2026 1:00:34 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -9.53% | -9.53% |
| 6/9/2026 9:27:50 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -10.31% | -5.15% |
| 6/9/2026 7:27:19 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -10.31% | -5.15% |
| 6/4/2026 4:40:40 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.56% | +0.56% |
| 6/3/2026 7:30:39 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -5.20% | -5.20% |
| 6/3/2026 4:30:25 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -5.20% | -5.20% |
| 6/1/2026 6:00:30 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -2.62% | -3.94% |
| 6/1/2026 3:30:31 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -2.62% | -2.62% |
| 5/29/2026 4:00:33 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.93% | +0.47% |
| 5/28/2026 3:30:30 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +9.91% | +4.96% |
| 5/27/2026 7:19:54 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +5.47% | -5.47% |
| 5/27/2026 7:00:32 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -13.62% | +6.81% |
| 5/26/2026 4:30:11 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +3.92% | -3.92% |
| 5/21/2026 7:00:03 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -9.20% | -4.60% |
| 5/21/2026 4:30:11 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -8.20% | -4.10% |
| 5/20/2026 3:30:13 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +2.55% |
| 5/19/2026 4:00:55 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -0.84% |
| 5/19/2026 1:00:18 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -10.24% | +5.12% |
| 5/15/2026 7:01:24 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -15.98% | -7.99% |
| 5/13/2026 4:07:44 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +9.79% |
| 5/12/2026 6:01:10 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +3.78% |
| 5/12/2026 3:43:59 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +7.56% |
| 5/11/2026 6:01:37 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 4:33:03 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +3.17% |
| 5/11/2026 3:30:59 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +3.17% |
| 5/6/2026 7:01:28 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.77% | +7.77% |
| 5/6/2026 6:30:38 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +7.77% | -3.89% |
| 5/1/2026 6:30:15 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -7.85% | +3.92% |
| 5/1/2026 5:30:10 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -7.85% | +3.92% |
| 5/1/2026 4:30:29 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 4/27/2026 6:00:43 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +6.49% |
| 4/27/2026 4:30:46 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +6.49% |
| 4/27/2026 3:45:31 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +3.25% |
| 4/24/2026 7:01:37 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +12.75% | +6.38% |
| 4/24/2026 3:30:34 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +10.43% | -5.21% |
| 4/17/2026 7:15:05 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/17/2026 6:00:59 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/17/2026 3:32:53 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -3.77% |
| 4/17/2026 1:00:06 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/13/2026 4:31:01 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/11/2026 2:00:47 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | -9.56% | +14.34% |
| 4/3/2026 2:00:27 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 4/3/2026 12:14:01 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 3/27/2026 6:00:24 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/24/2026 6:00:01 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +0.53% |
| 3/24/2026 4:30:32 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +13.91% | +6.95% |
| 3/24/2026 2:00:29 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +13.91% | -6.95% |
| 3/23/2026 6:00:33 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +7.29% | +3.64% |
| 3/20/2026 7:58:07 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +16.74% | +16.74% |
| 3/19/2026 3:39:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -8.14% |
| 3/19/2026 2:34:25 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -4.07% |
| 3/18/2026 5:00:40 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -5.91% |
| 3/17/2026 6:01:27 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.50% | -8.50% |
| 3/17/2026 2:31:24 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.50% | -8.50% |
| 3/13/2026 1:00:26 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -5.74% | -5.74% |
| 3/9/2026 6:15:03 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/9/2026 5:30:33 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/3/2026 7:15:05 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +40.40% |
| 1/7/2026 6:30:03 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 12/30/2025 10:30:10 PM | long term down | 61 days later | +24.05% | -24.05% |
| 12/22/2025 5:01:11 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.51% | -0.51% |
| 12/17/2025 4:30:43 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.97% | +3.97% |
| 12/11/2025 7:30:17 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.61% | +2.61% |
| 10/14/2025 5:34:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.29% | +0.64% |
| 9/25/2025 6:01:25 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -6.00% | -6.00% |
| 8/7/2025 12:00:18 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.93% | -1.93% |
yields
Tom White notes ten-year yield ticked up 2 bps to 4.46% and that the medium-term rate forecast was raised, implying upward pressure on yields in the near term.
