Bond Market Repricing and Global Opportunities (with Tom, Paul)

Christina Campanny sees bonds as repricing higher after strong jobs data, with the 10-year testing 4.52%. She notes markets have flipped from pricing Fed easing to hiking, but conviction is low. She sees value in front-end US rates and prefers US credit over Europe, with shorter higher-quality paper.

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Invesco 8.5
Asset Manager $1000.00B
Christina Campanny 8.5

Bond Market Repricing and Global Opportunities (with Tom, Paul)

dxy

Strong jobs data and Fed hiking bias support the dollar, while other central banks are also hiking, limiting downside.

yields

We've seen a reprice across the front end. We keep chopping in ranges. Once we've tested those levels, we'll probably repush them.

9 calls

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no reliable edge (random outcomes)

4/1/2026 12:46:07 PM	medium term down	20 days later	-0.44%	+0.44%
2/24/2026 2:28:00 AM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+3.80%	+1.90%
1/14/2026 1:54:47 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+2.76%	-1.38%
1/8/2026 2:35:08 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+1.34%	+0.67%
12/24/2025 2:45:53 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.58%	+0.29%
12/23/2025 1:51:56 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.48%	-0.48%
12/3/2025 9:18:48 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.90%	-0.95%
12/1/2025 10:51:32 AM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+2.10%	-1.05%
10/28/2025 3:52:51 PM	medium term down	20 days later	+1.60%	-1.60%

Show all 9 yields results

Yields are up: 10-year at 4.52%, 30-year at 5.01%. Are bonds on sale today?

Tom
Christina Campanny

We've seen a reprice across the front end. We keep chopping in ranges: tested 4.50% then pushed to 5.20% and 4.70%. Money gets put back to work at those levels. The narrative keeps changing.

With 170-180k payrolls plus positive revisions, it's hard to say there is weakness in the labor market. The consumer-led economy persists, but there is pain in the bottom half.
Traders are fully pricing in a quarter-point Fed rate hike by year-end.

Paul
Christina Campanny

After the Middle East shock, we flipped from easing to hiking bias. It's hard to go back. Other central banks (ECB, BOJ) are hiking. But no one has high conviction the Fed will hike—they don't want to repeat post-COVID mistakes.

We haven't seen wage pressures materialize broadly yet.
Where do you see value in global credit markets?

Paul
Christina Campanny

Credit spreads are tight, so it's hard to get excited. Money is flowing into credit funds more than rates. We prefer US over Europe, shorter higher-quality paper. In global rates, there is value in the front end across curves, including the US, Australia, Canada.

We're not convinced the Fed will go on a massive hiking cycle.
Is the international bond market functioning normally?

Tom
Christina Campanny

Markets are functioning with liquidity, but it's illogical how stocks are where they are given macro developments. There is complacency about the Middle East situation. AI capex spend may be overwhelming other factors, but it has to show up eventually.

We expected the Middle East situation to resolve in 3 weeks, but 3 months later we're still rolling forward expectations of a severe pressure point.

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