Under new Chair Warsh, the Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% but the dot plot shifted hawkishly: median 2025 dot moved to 3.75%, nine members see at least one hike this year, and PCE inflation forecasts were revised sharply higher to 3.6% (from 2.7%). The statement was shortened, removed balance-of-risks language, and cited Middle East conflict and energy supply shocks as inflation drivers. Growth was revised down, unemployment up slightly.
implicit
inferred
explicit
inferred
inferred
Federal funds rate cautious up
Bloomberg
7.0
Financial Media
Michael McKee 4.0
Financial Media
Michael McKee 4.0
US rates; US 10y
6/17/2026 9:19:02 PM
dxy
A more hawkish Fed dot plot and higher inflation forecasts relative to other major economies would support the US dollar in the near term.
metals
Higher real yields from a hawkish Fed typically pressure non-yielding assets like gold, but elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty provide support. The net effect is likely rangebound.
ndx
Higher rates and sticky inflation are negative for growth/tech valuations. The Nasdaq 100 is rate-sensitive and would likely face headwinds from a more hawkish Fed stance.
rut
Small caps (Russell 2000) are more sensitive to domestic economic conditions and higher borrowing costs. With GDP revised down and rates expected to stay higher, the RUT faces headwinds.
wti
Inflation remains elevated relative to the committee's 2% goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy.
| 6/11/2026 11:22:23 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -9.53% | +9.53% |
| 6/11/2026 7:18:14 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -9.53% | -14.30% |
| 6/11/2026 12:53:42 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -9.53% | -4.77% |
| 6/10/2026 5:50:32 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -13.29% | -13.29% |
| 6/10/2026 10:48:17 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -13.29% | -13.29% |
| 6/9/2026 11:22:48 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -10.31% | +10.31% |
| 6/9/2026 9:20:32 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -10.31% | +10.31% |
| 6/9/2026 7:27:16 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -10.31% | +5.15% |
| 6/9/2026 12:30:31 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -10.31% | -5.15% |
| 6/9/2026 12:20:16 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -10.31% | -5.15% |
| 6/8/2026 10:05:14 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -8.45% | -8.45% |
| 6/8/2026 10:20:39 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -8.45% | -8.45% |
| 6/8/2026 9:51:40 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -8.45% | -8.45% |
| 6/8/2026 9:51:40 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -8.45% | -8.45% |
| 6/8/2026 9:51:40 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -8.45% | -8.45% |
| 6/8/2026 6:24:18 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -8.45% | -8.45% |
| 6/6/2026 7:18:41 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -11.56% | +11.56% |
| 6/6/2026 3:08:02 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -11.56% | +11.56% |
| 6/6/2026 3:07:25 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -11.56% | +11.56% |
| 6/6/2026 2:06:18 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -11.56% | -11.56% |
| 6/5/2026 8:54:13 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -11.56% | -11.56% |
| 6/4/2026 11:18:49 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.56% | -0.56% |
| 6/4/2026 5:20:52 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.56% | -0.56% |
| 6/3/2026 11:19:38 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -5.20% | -5.20% |
| 6/3/2026 9:39:30 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -5.20% | -5.20% |
| 6/3/2026 7:33:05 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -5.20% | -5.20% |
| 6/2/2026 6:59:57 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -4.92% | +4.92% |
| 6/1/2026 6:48:51 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -2.62% | -3.94% |
| 6/1/2026 5:46:26 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -2.62% | -2.62% |
| 6/1/2026 2:25:48 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -2.62% | +1.31% |
| 6/1/2026 10:44:42 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -2.62% | +1.31% |
| 6/1/2026 9:51:17 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -2.62% | -2.62% |
| 5/31/2026 7:26:33 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.93% | -0.93% |
| 5/28/2026 8:10:10 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | -12.32% | +12.32% |
| 5/28/2026 9:27:53 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +9.91% | -9.91% |
| 5/28/2026 12:59:08 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +9.91% | -9.91% |
| 5/27/2026 11:48:14 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -13.62% | -13.62% |
| 5/27/2026 9:44:17 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +5.47% | +5.47% |
| 5/27/2026 8:38:39 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +5.47% | -5.47% |
| 5/27/2026 12:06:13 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.47% | -2.73% |
| 5/27/2026 12:03:14 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +5.47% | -5.47% |
| 5/26/2026 6:15:06 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.92% | +3.92% |
| 5/26/2026 4:16:23 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.92% | +3.92% |
| 5/26/2026 9:27:20 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -14.24% | -14.24% |
| 5/25/2026 9:42:20 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 5/25/2026 9:42:20 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 5/25/2026 7:41:50 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 5/25/2026 7:41:50 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 5/25/2026 7:41:50 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 5/21/2026 9:08:20 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.20% | -8.20% |
| 5/21/2026 8:16:00 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | -9.20% | +9.20% |
| 5/21/2026 6:44:38 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.20% | -8.20% |
| 5/20/2026 11:58:17 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +3.83% |
| 5/20/2026 11:06:22 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +2.55% |
| 5/20/2026 9:19:43 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +3.83% |
| 5/20/2026 12:22:59 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +2.55% |
| 5/19/2026 11:25:08 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -2.53% |
| 5/19/2026 1:26:20 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -1.69% |
| 5/19/2026 10:44:11 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.69% | +1.69% |
| 5/19/2026 8:29:51 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -10.24% | -5.12% |
| 5/19/2026 1:59:18 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -1.69% |
| 5/18/2026 11:32:06 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -15.28% | -15.28% |
| 5/15/2026 10:45:02 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -15.98% | -15.98% |
| 5/13/2026 9:18:02 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +6.52% | -3.26% |
| 5/13/2026 9:05:11 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +6.52% |
| 5/13/2026 4:02:01 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +6.52% |
| 5/13/2026 2:30:46 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +6.52% |
| 5/13/2026 8:05:25 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +3.26% |
| 5/12/2026 6:29:30 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +11.34% |
| 5/12/2026 3:58:46 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +7.56% |
| 5/12/2026 9:34:37 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +7.56% |
| 5/11/2026 3:42:16 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 2:37:40 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 2:21:17 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 2:21:17 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 10:21:17 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 10:21:17 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -9.81% | -9.81% |
| 5/11/2026 10:08:16 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 10:08:16 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 7:45:07 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/8/2026 10:50:00 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +5.40% |
| 5/8/2026 10:50:00 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -6.03% | -3.01% |
| 5/8/2026 7:51:14 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +5.40% |
| 5/8/2026 6:45:11 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +5.40% |
| 5/8/2026 10:34:17 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +10.80% |
| 5/8/2026 10:33:30 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +10.80% |
| 5/8/2026 9:39:28 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +16.20% |
| 5/8/2026 8:52:09 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +10.80% |
| 5/7/2026 10:07:01 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -6.83% | +3.42% |
| 5/7/2026 9:40:03 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +5.87% | +5.87% |
| 5/7/2026 9:26:20 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +5.87% | +5.87% |
| 5/7/2026 8:09:28 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -6.83% | +3.42% |
| 5/7/2026 7:11:49 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -5.87% |
| 5/7/2026 2:41:58 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 5/7/2026 10:02:35 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -5.87% |
| 5/7/2026 7:06:33 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 5/6/2026 11:23:07 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +7.77% | +3.89% |
| 5/2/2026 3:08:03 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 5/1/2026 3:08:28 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 5/1/2026 3:05:47 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 5/1/2026 11:35:10 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 5/1/2026 9:53:00 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 4/30/2026 11:36:17 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.48% | +2.74% |
| 4/30/2026 3:40:05 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.48% | -8.23% |
| 4/27/2026 7:39:37 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +8.74% | -8.74% |
| 4/27/2026 1:02:38 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +3.25% |
| 4/27/2026 10:29:21 AM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +3.25% |
| 4/24/2026 3:07:59 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 1:23:43 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 1:18:06 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 11:16:33 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +10.43% |
| 4/24/2026 11:01:37 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 12:09:41 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/20/2026 11:58:40 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +4.60% | -4.60% |
| 4/20/2026 7:06:15 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +4.60% | -4.60% |
| 4/20/2026 7:38:52 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +4.60% | +4.60% |
| 4/18/2026 2:40:06 AM | medium term down | 21 days later | +9.44% | -9.44% |
| 4/18/2026 2:18:29 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -11.32% |
| 4/18/2026 12:01:38 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -11.32% |
| 4/17/2026 4:22:48 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/17/2026 1:11:58 PM | long term cautious up | 60 days later | -14.59% | -7.29% |
| 4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -2.74% |
| 4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/13/2026 7:00:27 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/13/2026 2:27:08 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -2.74% |
| 4/12/2026 7:34:52 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -14.34% |
| 4/12/2026 3:41:23 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -9.56% |
| 4/12/2026 3:41:14 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -9.56% |
| 4/10/2026 10:10:32 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -9.56% |
| 4/10/2026 3:55:23 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +7.41% | +7.41% |
| 4/10/2026 1:31:13 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +7.41% | +7.41% |
| 4/10/2026 12:31:57 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -4.78% |
| 4/6/2026 10:30:45 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -14.68% | +7.34% |
| 4/6/2026 7:54:23 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -14.68% | -14.68% |
| 4/4/2026 7:49:11 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -14.27% | +7.13% |
| 4/3/2026 3:02:21 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 4/3/2026 12:36:51 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 3/30/2026 3:30:54 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +10.88% | +5.44% |
| 3/30/2026 2:09:27 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -11.61% | -17.41% |
| 3/30/2026 2:04:13 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +10.88% | +16.32% |
| 3/30/2026 8:40:46 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +10.88% | +16.32% |
| 3/29/2026 5:07:24 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/28/2026 6:03:36 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/27/2026 11:07:21 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +13.89% |
| 3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +13.89% |
| 3/27/2026 2:00:21 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +13.89% |
| 3/25/2026 10:52:54 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +7.30% | -7.30% |
| 3/23/2026 9:56:47 AM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +11.40% | +5.70% |
| 3/21/2026 1:47:39 AM | long term sharp down | 60 days later | +9.61% | -14.42% |
| 3/20/2026 4:06:06 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +16.74% | +25.10% |
| 3/20/2026 2:30:40 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +16.74% | +16.74% |
| 3/13/2026 9:25:35 PM | medium term sharp up | 21 days later | +20.22% | +30.34% |
| 3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -5.74% | -2.87% |
| 3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -5.74% | -2.87% |
| 3/13/2026 9:59:21 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -5.74% | -8.61% |
| 3/11/2026 10:09:41 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +0.50% | +0.75% |
| 3/10/2026 9:18:14 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +16.19% | +16.19% |
| 3/10/2026 2:38:02 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +16.19% | -16.19% |
| 3/10/2026 12:08:58 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.16% | +7.16% |
| 3/9/2026 6:46:13 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +23.28% | +34.93% |
| 3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +18.06% |
| 3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +18.06% |
| 3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/9/2026 8:28:21 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +18.06% |
| 3/9/2026 6:55:49 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +18.06% |
| 3/8/2026 3:01:00 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.34% | -1.34% |
| 3/5/2026 10:50:58 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -6.02% |
| 3/5/2026 2:02:48 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 3/4/2026 2:05:06 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.01% | +4.52% |
| 3/4/2026 5:43:12 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +3.01% | -1.51% |
| 3/3/2026 10:53:30 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +26.94% |
| 3/3/2026 8:39:08 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +40.40% |
| 3/2/2026 8:34:28 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +18.20% | -18.20% |
| 2/25/2026 9:27:27 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +14.34% | +7.17% |
| 2/20/2026 2:32:12 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +7.42% | +3.71% |
| 2/20/2026 10:59:11 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +7.42% | +7.42% |
| 2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.46% | -0.73% |
| 2/19/2026 10:55:34 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +44.19% | -22.10% |
| 2/11/2026 10:46:14 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.82% | -1.82% |
| 2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.82% | -1.82% |
| 1/30/2026 6:19:23 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +3.57% | +1.79% |
| 1/29/2026 9:02:44 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.87% | -0.94% |
| 1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.02% | +0.02% |
| 1/16/2026 7:33:17 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +2.02% | +3.03% |
| 1/12/2026 6:04:30 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +1.62% | -1.62% |
| 1/10/2026 2:50:05 AM | medium term down | 21 days later | +4.44% | -4.44% |
| 1/9/2026 6:25:43 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.12% | +0.06% |
| 1/7/2026 9:00:08 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 12/22/2025 11:02:38 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -0.51% | +0.26% |
| 12/22/2025 9:48:16 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.51% | -0.51% |
| 12/22/2025 7:55:54 AM | long term down | 62 days later | +13.58% | -13.58% |
| 12/19/2025 10:53:44 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | +2.57% | -2.57% |
| 12/19/2025 9:48:49 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.12% | +0.12% |
| 12/18/2025 9:42:38 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.98% | -2.98% |
| 12/18/2025 1:08:16 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +2.98% | +1.49% |
| 12/17/2025 2:09:01 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +3.97% | -1.99% |
| 12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | +3.70% | -5.55% |
| 12/16/2025 11:22:24 PM | medium term sharp down | 20 days later | +2.13% | -3.19% |
| 11/24/2025 10:29:53 AM | long term cautious down | 62 days later | +4.62% | -2.31% |
| 10/23/2025 2:05:44 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -1.66% | -2.49% |
| 10/22/2025 11:01:29 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.65% | +1.33% |
| 10/21/2025 9:16:26 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +4.80% | -2.40% |
| 10/20/2025 6:00:17 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +6.04% | -3.02% |
| 9/30/2025 11:07:33 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.15% | +0.15% |
| 9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.15% | +0.07% |
| 9/29/2025 7:07:25 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -1.09% | +0.55% |
| 9/29/2025 7:07:25 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.09% | +1.09% |
| 9/24/2025 7:52:42 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +1.29% | -1.29% |
| 9/9/2025 8:33:16 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.58% | -0.58% |
| 9/8/2025 11:19:17 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +1.07% | +1.07% |
| 9/8/2025 11:11:54 AM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +1.07% | +0.53% |
| 9/8/2025 8:18:05 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.07% | -1.07% |
| 9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +1.67% | -1.67% |
| 9/5/2025 7:27:44 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +1.91% | -0.96% |
| 9/4/2025 11:19:15 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.91% | -2.91% |
| 8/18/2025 11:10:24 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.93% | +3.93% |
| 8/15/2025 11:21:59 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +2.18% | -2.18% |
| 8/14/2025 11:46:57 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.65% | +0.65% |
| 8/11/2025 10:07:32 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.40% | -0.20% |
| 8/8/2025 8:23:48 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.84% | +0.84% |
| 8/8/2025 10:13:14 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | -0.84% | +1.27% |
| 8/5/2025 10:44:07 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.61% | +0.61% |
| 8/4/2025 11:29:13 PM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 8/4/2025 9:08:09 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +0.92% |
yields
The median dot moved higher to 3.75% from 3.375%, nine members see at least one hike this year, and PCE inflation forecasts were revised sharply higher. This implies upward pressure on yields as the market prices a higher-for-longer rate path.
