Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist, sees three Fed camps: hawks (Logan) wanting hikes, those fearing stagflation from high energy, and centrists. He views new Chair Warsh as neutral, likely to unify the committee and prefer less communication. Given concentrated job growth and potential oil price drop from Iran war end, Jersey expects the Fed to pause and wait for clearer inflation/jobs signals before moving rates higher.
implicit
inferred
explicit
Metals
USD
Bloomberg
7.0
Financial Media
Ira Jersey 6.5
Financial Media
Ira Jersey 6.5
6/14/2026 4:49:24 PM
ndx
Jersey's expectation of a Fed pause and concentrated job market weakness suggests no strong catalyst for tech/growth stocks in the near term, implying a sideways NDX.
rut
Jersey notes job market strength is concentrated in only two sectors, implying broader small-cap weakness, but no explicit direction given; likely rangebound.
wti
If we do actually have a conclusion to the Iran War, you could see maybe a further reduction in oil prices
| 6/4/2026 11:18:49 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.56% | -0.56% |
| 6/4/2026 5:20:52 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.56% | -0.56% |
| 6/3/2026 11:19:38 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -5.20% | -5.20% |
| 6/3/2026 9:39:30 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -5.20% | -5.20% |
| 6/3/2026 7:33:05 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -5.20% | -5.20% |
| 6/2/2026 6:59:57 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -4.92% | +4.92% |
| 6/1/2026 6:48:51 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -2.62% | -3.94% |
| 6/1/2026 5:46:26 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -2.62% | -2.62% |
| 6/1/2026 2:25:48 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -2.62% | +1.31% |
| 6/1/2026 10:44:42 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -2.62% | +1.31% |
| 6/1/2026 9:51:17 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -2.62% | -2.62% |
| 5/31/2026 7:26:33 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.93% | -0.93% |
| 5/28/2026 9:27:53 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +9.91% | -9.91% |
| 5/28/2026 12:59:08 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +9.91% | -9.91% |
| 5/27/2026 9:44:17 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +5.47% | +5.47% |
| 5/27/2026 8:38:39 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +5.47% | -5.47% |
| 5/27/2026 12:06:13 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.47% | -2.73% |
| 5/27/2026 12:03:14 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +5.47% | -5.47% |
| 5/26/2026 6:15:06 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.92% | +3.92% |
| 5/26/2026 4:16:23 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.92% | +3.92% |
| 5/25/2026 9:42:20 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 5/25/2026 9:42:20 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 5/25/2026 7:41:50 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 5/25/2026 7:41:50 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 5/25/2026 7:41:50 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 5/21/2026 9:08:20 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.20% | -8.20% |
| 5/21/2026 8:16:00 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | -9.20% | +9.20% |
| 5/21/2026 6:44:38 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.20% | -8.20% |
| 5/20/2026 11:58:17 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +3.83% |
| 5/20/2026 11:06:22 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +2.55% |
| 5/20/2026 9:19:43 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +3.83% |
| 5/20/2026 12:22:59 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +2.55% |
| 5/19/2026 11:25:08 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -2.53% |
| 5/19/2026 1:26:20 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -1.69% |
| 5/19/2026 10:44:11 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.69% | +1.69% |
| 5/19/2026 8:29:51 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -10.24% | -5.12% |
| 5/19/2026 1:59:18 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -1.69% |
| 5/18/2026 11:32:06 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -15.28% | -15.28% |
| 5/15/2026 10:45:02 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -15.98% | -15.98% |
| 5/13/2026 9:18:02 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +6.52% | -3.26% |
| 5/13/2026 9:05:11 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +6.52% |
| 5/13/2026 4:02:01 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +6.52% |
| 5/13/2026 2:30:46 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +6.52% |
| 5/13/2026 8:05:25 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +3.26% |
| 5/12/2026 6:29:30 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +11.34% |
| 5/12/2026 3:58:46 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +7.56% |
| 5/12/2026 9:34:37 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +7.56% |
| 5/11/2026 3:42:16 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 2:37:40 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 2:21:17 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 2:21:17 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 10:21:17 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 10:21:17 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -9.81% | -9.81% |
| 5/11/2026 10:08:16 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 10:08:16 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 7:45:07 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/8/2026 10:50:00 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +5.40% |
| 5/8/2026 10:50:00 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -6.03% | -3.01% |
| 5/8/2026 7:51:14 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +5.40% |
| 5/8/2026 6:45:11 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +5.40% |
| 5/8/2026 10:34:17 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +10.80% |
| 5/8/2026 10:33:30 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +10.80% |
| 5/8/2026 9:39:28 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +16.20% |
| 5/8/2026 8:52:09 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +10.80% |
| 5/7/2026 10:07:01 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -6.83% | +3.42% |
| 5/7/2026 9:40:03 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +5.87% | +5.87% |
| 5/7/2026 9:26:20 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +5.87% | +5.87% |
| 5/7/2026 8:09:28 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -6.83% | +3.42% |
| 5/7/2026 7:11:49 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -5.87% |
| 5/7/2026 2:41:58 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 5/7/2026 10:02:35 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -5.87% |
| 5/7/2026 7:06:33 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 5/6/2026 11:23:07 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +7.77% | +3.89% |
| 5/2/2026 3:08:03 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 5/1/2026 3:08:28 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 5/1/2026 3:05:47 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 5/1/2026 11:35:10 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 5/1/2026 9:53:00 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 4/30/2026 11:36:17 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.48% | +2.74% |
| 4/30/2026 3:40:05 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.48% | -8.23% |
| 4/27/2026 7:39:37 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +8.74% | -8.74% |
| 4/27/2026 1:02:38 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +3.25% |
| 4/27/2026 10:29:21 AM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +3.25% |
| 4/24/2026 3:07:59 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 1:23:43 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 1:18:06 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 11:16:33 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +10.43% |
| 4/24/2026 11:01:37 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 12:09:41 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/20/2026 11:58:40 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +4.60% | -4.60% |
| 4/20/2026 7:06:15 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +4.60% | -4.60% |
| 4/20/2026 7:38:52 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +4.60% | +4.60% |
| 4/18/2026 2:40:06 AM | medium term down | 21 days later | +9.44% | -9.44% |
| 4/18/2026 2:18:29 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -11.32% |
| 4/18/2026 12:01:38 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -11.32% |
| 4/17/2026 4:22:48 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -2.74% |
| 4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/13/2026 7:00:27 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/13/2026 2:27:08 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -2.74% |
| 4/12/2026 7:34:52 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -14.34% |
| 4/12/2026 3:41:23 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -9.56% |
| 4/12/2026 3:41:14 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -9.56% |
| 4/10/2026 10:10:32 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -9.56% |
| 4/10/2026 3:55:23 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +7.41% | +7.41% |
| 4/10/2026 1:31:13 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +7.41% | +7.41% |
| 4/10/2026 12:31:57 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -4.78% |
| 4/6/2026 10:30:45 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -14.68% | +7.34% |
| 4/6/2026 7:54:23 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -14.68% | -14.68% |
| 4/4/2026 7:49:11 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -14.27% | +7.13% |
| 4/3/2026 3:02:21 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 4/3/2026 12:36:51 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 3/30/2026 3:30:54 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +10.88% | +5.44% |
| 3/30/2026 2:09:27 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -11.61% | -17.41% |
| 3/30/2026 2:04:13 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +10.88% | +16.32% |
| 3/30/2026 8:40:46 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +10.88% | +16.32% |
| 3/29/2026 5:07:24 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/28/2026 6:03:36 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/27/2026 11:07:21 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +13.89% |
| 3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +13.89% |
| 3/27/2026 2:00:21 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +13.89% |
| 3/25/2026 10:52:54 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +7.30% | -7.30% |
| 3/23/2026 9:56:47 AM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +11.40% | +5.70% |
| 3/21/2026 1:47:39 AM | long term sharp down | 60 days later | +9.61% | -14.42% |
| 3/20/2026 4:06:06 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +16.74% | +25.10% |
| 3/20/2026 2:30:40 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +16.74% | +16.74% |
| 3/13/2026 9:25:35 PM | medium term sharp up | 21 days later | +20.22% | +30.34% |
| 3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -5.74% | -2.87% |
| 3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -5.74% | -2.87% |
| 3/13/2026 9:59:21 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -5.74% | -8.61% |
| 3/11/2026 10:09:41 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +0.50% | +0.75% |
| 3/10/2026 9:18:14 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +16.19% | +16.19% |
| 3/10/2026 2:38:02 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +16.19% | -16.19% |
| 3/10/2026 12:08:58 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.16% | +7.16% |
| 3/9/2026 6:46:13 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +23.28% | +34.93% |
| 3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +18.06% |
| 3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +18.06% |
| 3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/9/2026 8:28:21 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +18.06% |
| 3/9/2026 6:55:49 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +18.06% |
| 3/8/2026 3:01:00 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.34% | -1.34% |
| 3/5/2026 10:50:58 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -6.02% |
| 3/5/2026 2:02:48 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 3/4/2026 2:05:06 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.01% | +4.52% |
| 3/4/2026 5:43:12 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +3.01% | -1.51% |
| 3/3/2026 10:53:30 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +26.94% |
| 3/3/2026 8:39:08 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +40.40% |
| 3/2/2026 8:34:28 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +18.20% | -18.20% |
| 2/25/2026 9:27:27 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +14.34% | +7.17% |
| 2/20/2026 2:32:12 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +7.42% | +3.71% |
| 2/20/2026 10:59:11 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +7.42% | +7.42% |
| 2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.46% | -0.73% |
| 2/19/2026 10:55:34 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +44.19% | -22.10% |
| 2/11/2026 10:46:14 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.82% | -1.82% |
| 2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.82% | -1.82% |
| 1/30/2026 6:19:23 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +3.57% | +1.79% |
| 1/29/2026 9:02:44 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.87% | -0.94% |
| 1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.02% | +0.02% |
| 1/16/2026 7:33:17 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +2.02% | +3.03% |
| 1/12/2026 6:04:30 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +1.62% | -1.62% |
| 1/10/2026 2:50:05 AM | medium term down | 21 days later | +4.44% | -4.44% |
| 1/9/2026 6:25:43 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.12% | +0.06% |
| 1/7/2026 9:00:08 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 12/22/2025 11:02:38 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -0.51% | +0.26% |
| 12/22/2025 9:48:16 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.51% | -0.51% |
| 12/22/2025 7:55:54 AM | long term down | 62 days later | +13.58% | -13.58% |
| 12/19/2025 10:53:44 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | +2.57% | -2.57% |
| 12/19/2025 9:48:49 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.12% | +0.12% |
| 12/18/2025 9:42:38 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.98% | -2.98% |
| 12/18/2025 1:08:16 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +2.98% | +1.49% |
| 12/17/2025 2:09:01 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +3.97% | -1.99% |
| 12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | +3.70% | -5.55% |
| 12/16/2025 11:22:24 PM | medium term sharp down | 20 days later | +2.13% | -3.19% |
| 11/24/2025 10:29:53 AM | long term cautious down | 62 days later | +4.62% | -2.31% |
| 10/23/2025 2:05:44 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -1.66% | -2.49% |
| 10/22/2025 11:01:29 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.65% | +1.33% |
| 10/21/2025 9:16:26 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +4.80% | -2.40% |
| 10/20/2025 6:00:17 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +6.04% | -3.02% |
| 9/30/2025 11:07:33 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.15% | +0.15% |
| 9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.15% | +0.07% |
| 9/29/2025 7:07:25 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -1.09% | +0.55% |
| 9/29/2025 7:07:25 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.09% | +1.09% |
| 9/24/2025 7:52:42 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +1.29% | -1.29% |
| 9/9/2025 8:33:16 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.58% | -0.58% |
| 9/8/2025 11:19:17 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +1.07% | +1.07% |
| 9/8/2025 11:11:54 AM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +1.07% | +0.53% |
| 9/8/2025 8:18:05 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.07% | -1.07% |
| 9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +1.67% | -1.67% |
| 9/5/2025 7:27:44 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +1.91% | -0.96% |
| 9/4/2025 11:19:15 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.91% | -2.91% |
| 8/18/2025 11:10:24 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.93% | +3.93% |
| 8/15/2025 11:21:59 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +2.18% | -2.18% |
| 8/14/2025 11:46:57 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.65% | +0.65% |
| 8/11/2025 10:07:32 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.40% | -0.20% |
| 8/8/2025 8:23:48 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.84% | +0.84% |
| 8/8/2025 10:13:14 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | -0.84% | +1.27% |
| 8/5/2025 10:44:07 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.61% | +0.61% |
| 8/4/2025 11:29:13 PM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 8/4/2025 9:08:09 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +0.92% |
yields
Jersey expects the Fed to 'sit on our hands' and do 'a little bit of nothing' until clarity on inflation and jobs, implying yields will remain rangebound in the near term.
