US and Iran still diverging on key terms: Iran says no tolls for 60 days, US says no tolls ever. Blocked assets dispute: Iran says US willing to negotiate $24B, US says no dime. Even if Strait opens Friday, weeks/months needed for pre-war flow levels. 60-day ceasefire period for nuclear negotiations, but Trump document suggests he could return to military strikes if Iran stalls.
Yields
NDX
RUT

explicit
Metals
USD
Bloomberg 7.0
Financial Media
Nabih Abu Omar 4.0
US-Iran deal details and uncertainty (with Lizzie Verde)
6/16/2026 9:53:44 AM
wti
Even if the strait were to open in theory on Friday, it would take weeks if not months for pre-war movement across the waterway to go back to what it was.
227 calls
+2
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
6/11/2026 11:22:23 PM short term down 5 days later -9.53% +9.53%
6/11/2026 7:18:14 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -9.53% -14.30%
6/11/2026 12:53:42 AM short term cautious up 5 days later -9.53% -4.77%
6/10/2026 5:50:32 PM short term up 5 days later -13.29% -13.29%
6/10/2026 10:48:17 AM short term up 5 days later -13.29% -13.29%
6/9/2026 9:20:32 PM short term down 5 days later -10.31% +10.31%
6/9/2026 7:27:16 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -10.31% +5.15%
6/9/2026 12:30:31 AM short term cautious up 5 days later -10.31% -5.15%
6/9/2026 12:20:16 AM short term cautious up 5 days later -10.31% -5.15%
6/8/2026 10:05:14 PM short term up 6 days later -8.45% -8.45%
6/8/2026 10:20:39 AM short term up 6 days later -8.45% -8.45%
6/8/2026 9:51:40 AM short term up 6 days later -8.45% -8.45%
6/8/2026 9:51:40 AM short term up 6 days later -8.45% -8.45%
6/8/2026 9:51:40 AM short term up 6 days later -8.45% -8.45%
6/8/2026 6:24:18 AM short term up 6 days later -8.45% -8.45%
6/6/2026 7:18:41 PM short term down 7 days later -11.56% +11.56%
6/6/2026 3:08:02 PM short term down 7 days later -11.56% +11.56%
6/6/2026 3:07:25 PM short term down 7 days later -11.56% +11.56%
6/6/2026 2:06:18 AM short term up 7 days later -11.56% -11.56%
6/5/2026 8:54:13 PM short term up 7 days later -11.56% -11.56%
6/4/2026 11:18:49 PM short term up 5 days later -0.56% -0.56%
6/4/2026 5:20:52 AM short term up 5 days later -0.56% -0.56%
6/3/2026 11:19:38 PM short term up 5 days later -5.20% -5.20%
6/3/2026 9:39:30 PM short term up 5 days later -5.20% -5.20%
6/3/2026 7:33:05 PM short term up 5 days later -5.20% -5.20%
6/2/2026 6:59:57 PM short term down 5 days later -4.92% +4.92%
6/1/2026 6:48:51 PM short term sharp up 6 days later -2.62% -3.94%
6/1/2026 5:46:26 PM short term up 6 days later -2.62% -2.62%
6/1/2026 2:25:48 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -2.62% +1.31%
6/1/2026 10:44:42 AM short term cautious down 6 days later -2.62% +1.31%
6/1/2026 9:51:17 AM short term up 6 days later -2.62% -2.62%
5/31/2026 7:26:33 PM short term up 7 days later -0.93% -0.93%
5/28/2026 8:10:10 PM medium term down 20 days later -13.55% +13.55%
5/28/2026 9:27:53 AM short term down 5 days later +9.91% -9.91%
5/28/2026 12:59:08 AM short term down 5 days later +9.91% -9.91%
5/27/2026 11:48:14 PM medium term up 20 days later -13.62% -13.62%
5/27/2026 9:44:17 PM short term up 5 days later +5.47% +5.47%
5/27/2026 8:38:39 PM short term down 5 days later +5.47% -5.47%
5/27/2026 12:06:13 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +5.47% -2.73%
5/27/2026 12:03:14 AM short term down 5 days later +5.47% -5.47%
5/26/2026 6:15:06 PM short term up 5 days later +3.92% +3.92%
5/26/2026 4:16:23 PM short term up 5 days later +3.92% +3.92%
5/26/2026 9:27:20 AM medium term up 20 days later -14.24% -14.24%
5/25/2026 9:42:20 AM short term down 6 days later -1.84% +1.84%
5/25/2026 9:42:20 AM short term down 6 days later -1.84% +1.84%
5/25/2026 7:41:50 AM short term down 6 days later -1.84% +1.84%
5/25/2026 7:41:50 AM short term down 6 days later -1.84% +1.84%
5/25/2026 7:41:50 AM short term down 6 days later -1.84% +1.84%
5/21/2026 9:08:20 PM short term up 5 days later -8.20% -8.20%
5/21/2026 8:16:00 PM medium term down 20 days later -9.20% +9.20%
5/21/2026 6:44:38 PM short term up 5 days later -8.20% -8.20%
5/20/2026 11:58:17 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -2.55% +3.83%
5/20/2026 11:06:22 PM short term down 5 days later -2.55% +2.55%
5/20/2026 9:19:43 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -2.55% +3.83%
5/20/2026 12:22:59 AM short term down 5 days later -2.55% +2.55%
5/19/2026 11:25:08 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -1.69% -2.53%
5/19/2026 1:26:20 PM short term up 5 days later -1.69% -1.69%
5/19/2026 10:44:11 AM short term down 5 days later -1.69% +1.69%
5/19/2026 8:29:51 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later -10.24% -5.12%
5/19/2026 1:59:18 AM short term up 5 days later -1.69% -1.69%
5/18/2026 11:32:06 AM medium term up 20 days later -15.28% -15.28%
5/15/2026 10:45:02 PM medium term up 21 days later -15.98% -15.98%
5/13/2026 9:18:02 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +6.52% -3.26%
5/13/2026 9:05:11 PM short term up 5 days later +6.52% +6.52%
5/13/2026 4:02:01 PM short term up 5 days later +6.52% +6.52%
5/13/2026 2:30:46 PM short term up 5 days later +6.52% +6.52%
5/13/2026 8:05:25 AM short term cautious up 5 days later +6.52% +3.26%
5/12/2026 6:29:30 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +7.56% +11.34%
5/12/2026 3:58:46 PM short term up 5 days later +7.56% +7.56%
5/12/2026 9:34:37 AM short term up 5 days later +7.56% +7.56%
5/11/2026 3:42:16 PM short term up 6 days later +6.34% +6.34%
5/11/2026 2:37:40 PM short term up 6 days later +6.34% +6.34%
5/11/2026 2:21:17 PM short term up 6 days later +6.34% +6.34%
5/11/2026 2:21:17 PM short term up 6 days later +6.34% +6.34%
5/11/2026 10:21:17 AM short term up 6 days later +6.34% +6.34%
5/11/2026 10:21:17 AM medium term up 20 days later -9.81% -9.81%
5/11/2026 10:08:16 AM short term up 6 days later +6.34% +6.34%
5/11/2026 10:08:16 AM short term up 6 days later +6.34% +6.34%
5/11/2026 7:45:07 AM short term up 6 days later +6.34% +6.34%
5/8/2026 10:50:00 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +10.80% +5.40%
5/8/2026 10:50:00 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later -6.03% -3.01%
5/8/2026 7:51:14 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +10.80% +5.40%
5/8/2026 6:45:11 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +10.80% +5.40%
5/8/2026 10:34:17 AM short term up 7 days later +10.80% +10.80%
5/8/2026 10:33:30 AM short term up 7 days later +10.80% +10.80%
5/8/2026 9:39:28 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +10.80% +16.20%
5/8/2026 8:52:09 AM short term up 7 days later +10.80% +10.80%
5/7/2026 10:07:01 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -6.83% +3.42%
5/7/2026 9:40:03 PM short term up 5 days later +5.87% +5.87%
5/7/2026 9:26:20 PM short term up 5 days later +5.87% +5.87%
5/7/2026 8:09:28 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -6.83% +3.42%
5/7/2026 7:11:49 PM short term down 5 days later +5.87% -5.87%
5/7/2026 2:41:58 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +5.87% -2.93%
5/7/2026 10:02:35 AM short term down 5 days later +5.87% -5.87%
5/7/2026 7:06:33 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +5.87% -2.93%
5/6/2026 11:23:07 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +7.77% +3.89%
5/2/2026 3:08:03 PM short term sharp up 7 days later -7.85% -11.77%
5/1/2026 3:08:28 PM short term sharp up 7 days later -7.85% -11.77%
5/1/2026 3:05:47 PM short term sharp up 7 days later -7.85% -11.77%
5/1/2026 11:35:10 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -7.85% -11.77%
5/1/2026 9:53:00 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -7.85% -11.77%
4/30/2026 11:36:17 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.48% +2.74%
4/30/2026 3:40:05 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later -5.48% -8.23%
4/27/2026 7:39:37 PM medium term down 20 days later +8.74% -8.74%
4/27/2026 1:02:38 PM short term cautious up 6 days later +6.49% +3.25%
4/27/2026 10:29:21 AM short term cautious up 6 days later +6.49% +3.25%
4/24/2026 3:07:59 PM short term sharp up 7 days later +10.43% +15.64%
4/24/2026 1:23:43 PM short term sharp up 7 days later +10.43% +15.64%
4/24/2026 1:18:06 PM short term sharp up 7 days later +10.43% +15.64%
4/24/2026 11:16:33 AM short term up 7 days later +10.43% +10.43%
4/24/2026 11:01:37 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +10.43% +15.64%
4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +10.43% +15.64%
4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +10.43% +15.64%
4/24/2026 12:09:41 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +10.43% +15.64%
4/20/2026 11:58:40 PM short term down 6 days later +4.60% -4.60%
4/20/2026 7:06:15 PM short term down 6 days later +4.60% -4.60%
4/20/2026 7:38:52 AM short term up 6 days later +4.60% +4.60%
4/18/2026 2:40:06 AM medium term down 21 days later +9.44% -9.44%
4/18/2026 2:18:29 AM short term sharp down 7 days later +7.54% -11.32%
4/18/2026 12:01:38 AM short term sharp down 7 days later +7.54% -11.32%
4/17/2026 4:22:48 PM short term down 7 days later +7.54% -7.54%
4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM short term up 6 days later -1.83% -1.83%
4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM short term sharp up 6 days later -1.83% -2.74%
4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM short term up 6 days later -1.83% -1.83%
4/13/2026 7:00:27 PM short term up 6 days later -1.83% -1.83%
4/13/2026 2:27:08 PM short term sharp up 6 days later -1.83% -2.74%
4/12/2026 7:34:52 PM short term sharp up 7 days later -9.56% -14.34%
4/12/2026 3:41:23 PM short term up 7 days later -9.56% -9.56%
4/12/2026 3:41:14 PM short term up 7 days later -9.56% -9.56%
4/10/2026 10:10:32 PM short term up 7 days later -9.56% -9.56%
4/10/2026 3:55:23 PM medium term up 21 days later +7.41% +7.41%
4/10/2026 1:31:13 PM medium term up 21 days later +7.41% +7.41%
4/10/2026 12:31:57 AM short term cautious up 7 days later -9.56% -4.78%
4/6/2026 10:30:45 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -14.68% +7.34%
4/6/2026 7:54:23 PM medium term up 20 days later -14.68% -14.68%
4/4/2026 7:49:11 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -14.27% +7.13%
4/3/2026 3:02:21 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -11.86% -17.79%
4/3/2026 12:36:51 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -11.86% -17.79%
3/30/2026 3:30:54 PM short term cautious up 6 days later +10.88% +5.44%
3/30/2026 2:09:27 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later -11.61% -17.41%
3/30/2026 2:04:13 PM short term sharp up 6 days later +10.88% +16.32%
3/30/2026 8:40:46 AM short term sharp up 6 days later +10.88% +16.32%
3/29/2026 5:07:24 PM short term up 7 days later +9.26% +9.26%
3/28/2026 6:03:36 PM short term up 7 days later +9.26% +9.26%
3/27/2026 11:07:21 PM short term sharp up 7 days later +9.26% +13.89%
3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +9.26% +13.89%
3/27/2026 2:00:21 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +9.26% +13.89%
3/25/2026 10:52:54 AM short term down 5 days later +7.30% -7.30%
3/23/2026 9:56:47 AM short term cautious up 6 days later +11.40% +5.70%
3/21/2026 1:47:39 AM long term sharp down 60 days later +9.61% -14.42%
3/20/2026 4:06:06 PM short term sharp up 7 days later +16.74% +25.10%
3/20/2026 2:30:40 AM short term up 7 days later +16.74% +16.74%
3/13/2026 9:25:35 PM medium term sharp up 21 days later +20.22% +30.34%
3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -5.74% -2.87%
3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -5.74% -2.87%
3/13/2026 9:59:21 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -5.74% -8.61%
3/11/2026 10:09:41 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.50% +0.75%
3/10/2026 9:18:14 AM medium term up 20 days later +16.19% +16.19%
3/10/2026 2:38:02 AM medium term down 20 days later +16.19% -16.19%
3/10/2026 12:08:58 AM short term up 5 days later +7.16% +7.16%
3/9/2026 6:46:13 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later +23.28% +34.93%
3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM short term sharp up 6 days later +12.04% +18.06%
3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM short term sharp up 6 days later +12.04% +18.06%
3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM short term up 6 days later +12.04% +12.04%
3/9/2026 8:28:21 AM short term sharp up 6 days later +12.04% +18.06%
3/9/2026 6:55:49 AM short term sharp up 6 days later +12.04% +18.06%
3/8/2026 3:01:00 AM short term up 7 days later -1.34% -1.34%
3/5/2026 10:50:58 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -4.02% -6.02%
3/5/2026 2:02:48 PM short term up 5 days later -4.02% -4.02%
3/4/2026 2:05:06 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +3.01% +4.52%
3/4/2026 5:43:12 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +3.01% -1.51%
3/3/2026 10:53:30 AM short term up 5 days later +26.94% +26.94%
3/3/2026 8:39:08 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +26.94% +40.40%
3/2/2026 8:34:28 PM medium term down 20 days later +18.20% -18.20%
2/25/2026 9:27:27 AM short term cautious up 5 days later +14.34% +7.17%
2/20/2026 2:32:12 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +7.42% +3.71%
2/20/2026 10:59:11 AM short term up 7 days later +7.42% +7.42%
2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -1.46% -0.73%
2/19/2026 10:55:34 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +44.19% -22.10%
2/11/2026 10:46:14 PM short term up 5 days later -0.81% -0.81%
2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM short term down 6 days later +1.82% -1.82%
2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM short term down 6 days later +1.82% -1.82%
1/30/2026 6:19:23 AM short term cautious up 7 days later +3.57% +1.79%
1/29/2026 9:02:44 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +1.87% -0.94%
1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM short term up 5 days later +0.02% +0.02%
1/16/2026 7:33:17 PM short term sharp up 7 days later +2.02% +3.03%
1/12/2026 6:04:30 PM medium term down 20 days later +1.62% -1.62%
1/10/2026 2:50:05 AM medium term down 21 days later +4.44% -4.44%
1/9/2026 6:25:43 AM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.12% +0.06%
1/7/2026 9:00:08 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +5.87% -2.93%
12/22/2025 11:02:38 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -0.51% +0.26%
12/22/2025 9:48:16 PM short term up 6 days later -0.51% -0.51%
12/22/2025 7:55:54 AM long term down 62 days later +13.58% -13.58%
12/19/2025 10:53:44 PM medium term down 21 days later +2.57% -2.57%
12/19/2025 9:48:49 PM short term up 7 days later +0.12% +0.12%
12/18/2025 9:42:38 PM short term down 5 days later +2.98% -2.98%
12/18/2025 1:08:16 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +2.98% +1.49%
12/17/2025 2:09:01 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +3.97% -1.99%
12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM short term sharp down 5 days later +3.70% -5.55%
12/16/2025 11:22:24 PM medium term sharp down 20 days later +2.13% -3.19%
11/24/2025 10:29:53 AM long term cautious down 62 days later +4.62% -2.31%
10/23/2025 2:05:44 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -1.66% -2.49%
10/22/2025 11:01:29 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.65% +1.33%
10/21/2025 9:16:26 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +4.80% -2.40%
10/20/2025 6:00:17 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +6.04% -3.02%
9/30/2025 11:07:33 PM short term down 5 days later -0.15% +0.15%
9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.15% +0.07%
9/29/2025 7:07:25 AM short term cautious down 6 days later -1.09% +0.55%
9/29/2025 7:07:25 AM short term down 6 days later -1.09% +1.09%
9/24/2025 7:52:42 AM short term up 5 days later -4.02% -4.02%
9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM short term down 7 days later +1.29% -1.29%
9/9/2025 8:33:16 PM short term up 5 days later -0.58% -0.58%
9/8/2025 11:19:17 PM short term up 6 days later +1.07% +1.07%
9/8/2025 11:11:54 AM short term cautious up 6 days later +1.07% +0.53%
9/8/2025 8:18:05 AM short term down 6 days later +1.07% -1.07%
9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM short term down 7 days later +1.67% -1.67%
9/5/2025 7:27:44 AM medium term cautious down 21 days later +1.91% -0.96%
9/4/2025 11:19:15 AM short term down 5 days later +2.91% -2.91%
8/18/2025 11:10:24 PM short term up 6 days later +3.93% +3.93%
8/15/2025 11:21:59 PM short term down 7 days later +2.18% -2.18%
8/14/2025 11:46:57 PM short term up 5 days later +0.65% +0.65%
8/11/2025 10:07:32 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.40% -0.20%
8/8/2025 8:23:48 PM short term down 7 days later -0.84% +0.84%
8/8/2025 10:13:14 AM short term sharp down 7 days later -0.84% +1.27%
8/5/2025 10:44:07 AM short term down 5 days later -0.61% +0.61%
8/4/2025 11:29:13 PM short term down 6 days later -1.84% +1.84%
8/4/2025 9:08:09 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -1.84% +0.92%
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