Bond Market Repricing & Global Opportunities (with Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney)

Christina K observes a yield repricing with the front end selling off 5-7 basis points, noting the market flipped from easing to hiking bias post-Middle East shock. She sees value in front-end rates globally and prefers US over Europe in credit, with shorter higher quality paper. Markets are functioning but complacent given macro risks.

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Christina K 7.0

Bond Market Repricing & Global Opportunities (with Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney)

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Christina notes the market flipped to hiking bias and other central banks are hiking, which typically supports the dollar as US rates remain relatively attractive.

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We've seen a bit of a repricing across the front end... we keep chopping in these ranges... now retesting with a 5-7 basis point sell-off in the front end.

9 calls

-1

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

4/1/2026 12:46:07 PM	medium term down	20 days later	-0.44%	+0.44%
2/24/2026 2:28:00 AM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+3.80%	+1.90%
1/14/2026 1:54:47 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+2.76%	-1.38%
1/8/2026 2:35:08 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+1.34%	+0.67%
12/24/2025 2:45:53 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.58%	+0.29%
12/23/2025 1:51:56 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.48%	-0.48%
12/3/2025 9:18:48 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.90%	-0.95%
12/1/2025 10:51:32 AM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+2.10%	-1.05%
10/28/2025 3:52:51 PM	medium term down	20 days later	+1.60%	-1.60%

Show all 9 yields results

Tom Keene

Kevin mentioned Sir John Templeton. Are bonds on sale today?
Christina K

We've seen a bit of a repricing across the front end. We keep chopping in ranges: thought 4.50% would contain 10-year and 5%, pushed to 5.20% and 4.70%, then money quickly put back to work. Once we test those levels, we'll probably repush them. The narrative keeps changing.
Paul Sweeney

Traders fully price in a quarter-point Fed rate hike by year-end. That changes things.
Christina K

Post-Middle East shock, we flipped from easing bias pricing to hiking bias pricing, and it's very hard to go back. The market is grappling with other global central banks hiking (ECB, BOJ). We've priced more and taken out a little, now retesting with a 5-7 basis point sell-off in the front end.
Paul Sweeney

What do you think about opportunities globally in credit markets? Where do you see value?
Christina K

Credit remains really tight, so it's hard to get excited. Money is going into credit funds more than rates. Within credit, we have a bias for US over Europe and shorter higher quality paper. Within global rates, there is still value in the front end across curves, even in the US, because we're not convinced the Fed goes on a massive hiking cycle.
Tom Keene

Is your market functioning normally? Is the huge international bond space you're in charge of working?
Christina K

Markets themselves are functioning with liquidity. But with all the macroeconomic developments in the last 3 months and stocks where they are, it's a head-scratcher. There's a lot of complacency about the Middle East situation. The expectation was resolution in 3 weeks, but here we are 3 months later.

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