Jim Bianco argues the market is dangerously complacent about the Strait of Hormuz closure. He believes time is not on the US side, inventories are running low, and a supply crisis could push oil to $200 by summer. He warns that financial engineering or Fed rate cuts would backfire, and the only fix is more supply.
explicit
implicit
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
Bianco Research
7.2
Investment Research Firm
Jim Bianco 9.0
Investment Research Firm
Jim Bianco 9.0
5/28/2026 6:00:30 PM
ndx
Bianco says AI is the dominant theme and will continue to dominate over the oil story for the near term, implying no major directional move in NDX despite oil risk.
| 12/8/2025 11:42:33 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -0.56% | -0.56% |
| 10/21/2025 9:30:34 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.79% | +3.79% |
| 10/14/2025 3:53:14 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.60% | +1.60% |
| 8/14/2025 2:49:30 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.33% | +0.17% |
wti
I think we've got $200 oil within 60 days if we don't get the straight opened.
| 4/30/2026 8:14:17 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -6.73% | -10.09% |
| 4/30/2026 3:58:58 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.48% | -8.23% |
| 4/30/2026 12:35:50 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.48% | -8.23% |
| 4/29/2026 11:56:07 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -6.48% | -9.72% |
| 4/29/2026 11:12:18 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -6.48% | -9.72% |
| 4/10/2026 3:53:15 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -9.56% |
| 4/9/2026 5:24:14 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +8.80% | +8.80% |
| 3/20/2026 1:25:20 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM | long term cautious down | 60 days later | +13.02% | -6.51% |
| 3/12/2026 8:50:04 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.42% | -3.63% |
| 3/4/2026 3:33:17 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.01% | +3.01% |
| 2/20/2026 3:49:52 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +7.42% | +7.42% |
| 1/6/2026 7:30:15 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +11.43% | +11.43% |
| 1/6/2026 4:06:05 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +11.43% | +11.43% |
yields
That's why we've seen interest rates since the war started drifting higher and we could continue to see interest rates drift higher.
| 4/30/2026 3:58:58 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +4.75% | +7.13% |
| 4/29/2026 11:56:07 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.59% | +0.59% |
| 4/29/2026 10:58:55 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +0.59% | +0.89% |
| 4/15/2026 5:00:11 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.09% | +1.09% |
| 4/9/2026 5:41:19 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.41% |
| 4/9/2026 5:36:25 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 4/9/2026 5:32:18 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 4/9/2026 3:55:52 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 4/7/2026 9:39:37 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.47% | +1.47% |
| 3/30/2026 5:18:49 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -1.41% | -2.12% |
| 3/30/2026 5:17:13 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +0.56% | +0.56% |
| 3/29/2026 4:56:43 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -2.12% | -2.12% |
| 3/20/2026 4:32:31 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.85% | -0.85% |
| 3/20/2026 1:25:20 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.85% | -0.85% |
| 3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.23% | +0.12% |
| 3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +2.59% | +1.30% |
| 3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.23% | -0.12% |
| 3/12/2026 8:50:04 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.61% | -0.91% |
| 3/9/2026 3:08:20 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +4.98% | +4.98% |
| 3/4/2026 4:03:19 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.24% | -0.24% |
| 3/4/2026 3:33:17 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.24% | -0.24% |
| 2/20/2026 3:49:52 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +4.74% | +2.37% |
| 1/6/2026 10:41:18 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.05% | +2.05% |
| 1/6/2026 7:30:15 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.05% | +2.05% |
| 1/6/2026 4:06:05 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.05% | +2.05% |
| 1/5/2026 3:34:19 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.81% | +0.81% |
| 11/14/2025 5:39:52 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -2.30% | -2.30% |
| 11/13/2025 11:11:01 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -0.96% | -0.48% |
| 10/21/2025 10:16:55 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.11% | -0.56% |
| 10/14/2025 3:56:23 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +1.06% |
| 9/29/2025 3:25:33 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.34% | -0.17% |
| 9/17/2025 1:26:35 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.39% |
| 9/15/2025 3:58:32 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +2.91% | -1.45% |
| 9/4/2025 11:05:46 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.10% | +1.05% |
| 9/4/2025 9:35:50 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.10% | +1.05% |
| 8/28/2025 4:47:53 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -2.91% | +1.45% |
| 8/26/2025 4:19:00 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/26/2025 4:05:31 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.00% | -7.50% |
| 8/26/2025 1:00:15 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.00% | -7.50% |
| 8/25/2025 3:41:18 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +0.45% | -0.22% |
| 8/20/2025 6:53:54 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -6.88% | -3.44% |
| 8/19/2025 5:49:35 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.49% | +0.24% |
| 8/14/2025 2:49:30 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.51% | +1.76% |
| 8/7/2025 2:21:54 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.82% | +0.91% |
| 8/5/2025 3:48:43 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +0.90% | +1.35% |
| 8/4/2025 3:58:24 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.88% | +0.94% |
| 7/19/2025 1:58:49 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -2.26% | +1.13% |
