Collins signals Fed's hawkish bias persists despite dissent. Energy shock pushes inflation higher for longer, supporting USD, pressuring NDX/RUT. US net oil exporter status tempers some downside. Fed's credibility on 2% target is questioned. Warsh's nomination viewed with cautious optimism on Fed independence.
Yields
NDX
Oil
Metals
USD
inflation cautious up
Federal Reserve
9.5
Central Bank
Susan Collins 7.0
Central Bank
Susan Collins 7.0
5/8/2026 2:16:47 AM
dxy
The US being a net oil exporter offsets some negative impacts from the energy shock, and the Fed's hawkish stance (no cuts, removing easing bias) relative to other central banks could support the dollar cautiously higher.
ndx
Collins expects inflation to rise and rates to stay higher for longer, which typically pressures growth stocks (NDX). She also notes increased downside risks to the economy from the war, though less than inflation risks, suggesting cautious downside for equities.
rut
Collins notes high youth unemployment and fragility in the labor market, which disproportionately affects small caps (RUT). Higher energy costs and inflation also weigh on smaller domestic companies, suggesting cautious downside.
wti
We have seen certainly already a surge in energy prices. There is an expectation that higher food prices are likely to follow. The energy shock is a similar magnitude to the 1973 oil shock.
| 5/7/2026 9:32:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 5/7/2026 8:36:03 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 5/7/2026 8:22:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 4/30/2026 1:27:38 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -6.73% | -3.36% |
| 4/29/2026 9:59:50 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/29/2026 8:25:38 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/22/2026 1:15:04 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +4.26% | +6.38% |
| 4/21/2026 10:56:53 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +5.50% |
| 4/21/2026 10:53:54 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +5.50% |
| 4/21/2026 10:49:31 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +1.83% |
| 4/21/2026 9:02:49 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +3.67% |
| 4/7/2026 4:38:39 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.95% | +4.95% |
| 4/7/2026 4:34:26 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.95% | +4.95% |
| 4/2/2026 1:24:49 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -15.36% | -7.68% |
| 3/23/2026 4:18:40 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +11.40% | +11.40% |
| 3/23/2026 3:29:56 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +7.29% | +7.29% |
| 3/23/2026 3:17:02 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +11.40% | +11.40% |
| 3/20/2026 5:36:27 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/20/2026 4:29:36 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/19/2026 12:11:26 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -12.21% |
| 3/18/2026 11:29:30 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -5.91% |
| 3/18/2026 9:30:00 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 3/18/2026 8:57:23 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 3/17/2026 12:28:12 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.50% | -8.50% |
| 3/9/2026 4:35:07 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/7/2026 5:57:18 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +8.59% | +8.59% |
| 3/6/2026 9:15:32 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +8.59% | +8.59% |
| 3/6/2026 3:21:26 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +8.59% | +12.89% |
| 3/5/2026 5:39:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 3/5/2026 4:38:35 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 9/23/2025 11:29:28 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.37% | -2.37% |
| 9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.45% | +3.45% |
| 8/28/2025 10:35:20 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.06% | +0.06% |
| 8/20/2025 10:17:30 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.43% |
yields
Collins strongly supported holding rates steady and preferred removing easing bias language, signaling no near-term cuts. She expects inflation to rise further before declining, implying rates will stay higher for longer, pushing yields up cautiously in the medium term.
