Bank of America strategist on rates, oil, and Fed outlook (with Katie Grifeld)

Bank of America strategist Meghan Swiber is "long rates," anticipating a Fed pivot driven by a temporary oil shock and a K-shaped economy that will pressure lower-income cohorts. She favors the front-end and curve steepeners, viewing the Strait of Hormuz reopening as validation. Concerns are shifting to the back-end of the curve due to rising Treasury supply risks and potential auction size increases, a key focus for the May refunding.

yields

We are long rates Position is based on view that oil shock is temporary, Fed will cut, and K-shaped economy creates vulnerability.

16 calls

-1

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

3/20/2026 4:47:05 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-0.85%	+0.43%
3/19/2026 9:36:59 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-2.23%	+1.12%
2/17/2026 12:42:30 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-1.23%	+0.61%
12/12/2025 2:11:07 PM	short term down	7 days later	-0.31%	+0.31%
12/5/2025 12:40:03 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-1.34%	+0.67%
12/1/2025 6:33:31 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+2.10%	-1.05%
11/13/2025 8:45:37 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.96%	+0.48%
10/29/2025 1:10:31 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.10%	+0.05%
10/15/2025 6:53:52 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+4.55%	-2.28%
9/18/2025 10:17:17 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.19%	-0.10%
9/17/2025 6:36:22 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+0.39%	+0.19%
9/17/2025 4:38:45 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.61%	-0.30%
9/5/2025 10:40:41 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+2.35%	-1.17%
9/3/2025 5:31:38 PM	medium term sharp down	20 days later	-0.69%	+1.04%
8/14/2025 9:14:07 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.74%	+0.37%

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