The primary catalyst for the selloff is the lack of resolution on the Strait of Hormuz post-summit. This dip will last a couple of weeks but won't derail the larger AI capex bubble. Nvidia matters less this time. The earnings rug pull for AI is at least next season away.

implicit

explicit
RUT

explicit
Metals
USD
Bloomberg 5.5
Financial Media
Mark Cudmore 4.5
5/18/2026 1:45:35 PM
ndx
This doesn't derail the larger AI capex bubble. We'll still probably see record highs later this year.
128 calls
-1
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
5/15/2026 4:01:38 PM medium term up 21 days later +1.45% +1.45%
5/14/2026 2:29:36 PM short term up 5 days later +0.59% +0.59%
5/14/2026 10:22:14 AM medium term down 20 days later +4.40% -4.40%
5/14/2026 12:00:33 AM short term up 5 days later +0.59% +0.59%
5/13/2026 11:31:04 PM short term up 5 days later -2.57% -2.57%
5/13/2026 10:10:31 PM short term up 5 days later -2.57% -2.57%
5/13/2026 9:18:02 PM short term up 5 days later -2.57% -2.57%
5/13/2026 5:46:04 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.57% -1.29%
5/13/2026 10:40:42 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.57% +1.29%
5/12/2026 10:17:11 PM short term down 5 days later -1.27% +1.27%
5/12/2026 9:45:39 PM short term down 5 days later -1.27% +1.27%
5/12/2026 6:29:30 PM short term down 5 days later -1.27% +1.27%
5/12/2026 5:44:45 PM short term down 5 days later -1.27% +1.27%
5/12/2026 2:49:50 AM short term up 5 days later -1.27% -1.27%
5/11/2026 8:32:50 PM short term up 6 days later -0.24% -0.24%
5/11/2026 3:12:21 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +4.99% +2.49%
5/11/2026 8:25:16 AM short term up 6 days later -0.24% -0.24%
5/10/2026 10:55:12 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later +4.07% +2.03%
5/8/2026 9:25:43 PM short term up 7 days later -1.11% -1.11%
5/8/2026 10:33:30 AM short term up 7 days later -1.11% -1.11%
5/8/2026 9:39:28 AM short term down 7 days later -1.11% +1.11%
5/8/2026 12:54:54 AM short term down 7 days later -1.11% +1.11%
5/6/2026 7:38:13 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +4.93% +2.47%
5/6/2026 4:25:04 PM short term up 5 days later +1.75% +1.75%
5/6/2026 7:59:28 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +4.93% -2.47%
5/6/2026 7:07:04 AM short term up 5 days later +1.75% +1.75%
5/5/2026 12:24:00 AM short term down 5 days later +2.52% -2.52%
3/19/2026 10:26:26 PM short term down 5 days later +1.11% -1.11%
3/13/2026 6:44:24 AM short term cautious down 7 days later -1.89% +0.95%
3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM short term down 6 days later -1.21% +1.21%
3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM short term down 6 days later -1.21% +1.21%
2/24/2026 7:11:54 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.17% +1.08%
2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM short term down 5 days later +1.27% -1.27%
2/11/2026 10:51:35 AM short term down 5 days later +0.06% -0.06%
2/5/2026 6:10:54 AM short term down 5 days later +0.50% -0.50%
1/29/2026 9:18:07 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.59% +1.29%
1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM short term up 5 days later -2.11% -2.11%
1/8/2026 11:03:52 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.17% +0.58%
1/8/2026 10:04:31 AM short term down 5 days later -1.17% +1.17%
12/24/2025 8:43:44 AM short term up 5 days later -1.54% -1.54%
12/24/2025 7:08:10 AM short term up 5 days later -1.54% -1.54%
12/23/2025 7:24:06 AM short term up 5 days later -0.51% -0.51%
12/22/2025 9:48:16 PM short term up 6 days later -0.24% -0.24%
12/22/2025 2:42:18 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -0.24% +0.12%
12/19/2025 9:48:49 PM short term up 7 days later +0.25% +0.25%
12/19/2025 10:45:28 AM short term up 7 days later +0.25% +0.25%
12/19/2025 1:45:14 AM medium term up 21 days later +1.28% +1.28%
12/18/2025 11:18:27 PM short term up 5 days later +1.22% +1.22%
12/18/2025 9:42:38 PM short term down 5 days later +1.22% -1.22%
12/18/2025 8:02:41 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.22% -0.61%
12/17/2025 11:36:40 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.27% -1.14%
12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM short term up 5 days later +3.30% +3.30%
12/11/2025 10:26:28 AM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.18% -1.09%
12/10/2025 11:45:39 PM short term up 5 days later -2.16% -2.16%
12/1/2025 2:08:24 PM short term down 6 days later +0.28% -0.28%
11/28/2025 12:53:14 PM long term up 60 days later +0.83% +0.83%
11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM short term up 5 days later +0.42% +0.42%
11/25/2025 4:59:14 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.42% -0.21%
11/25/2025 5:18:20 AM short term up 5 days later +0.42% +0.42%
11/24/2025 11:41:23 PM short term up 6 days later +1.30% +1.30%
11/21/2025 1:49:16 PM short term down 7 days later +1.89% -1.89%
11/21/2025 10:59:48 AM short term down 7 days later +1.89% -1.89%
11/19/2025 1:40:42 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +4.01% -2.00%
11/19/2025 1:30:46 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +4.01% -2.00%
11/18/2025 1:29:07 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.95% -0.47%
11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM short term down 5 days later +0.95% -0.95%
11/11/2025 7:51:50 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.81% +1.41%
11/11/2025 2:03:07 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.81% +1.41%
11/11/2025 2:03:07 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.81% +1.41%
11/11/2025 1:10:20 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.81% -1.41%
11/11/2025 10:07:03 AM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.81% -1.41%
11/10/2025 2:14:07 PM short term up 6 days later -2.87% -2.87%
11/10/2025 10:55:42 AM short term up 6 days later -2.87% -2.87%
11/10/2025 10:55:42 AM short term up 6 days later -2.87% -2.87%
11/7/2025 10:12:11 AM short term down 7 days later -3.17% +3.17%
11/6/2025 11:18:53 PM short term down 5 days later +1.83% -1.83%
11/5/2025 5:35:23 AM short term down 5 days later +1.61% -1.61%
11/4/2025 2:20:08 PM short term down 5 days later -0.03% +0.03%
10/27/2025 7:25:44 AM short term up 6 days later -0.15% -0.15%
10/2/2025 9:07:28 AM short term up 5 days later +1.42% +1.42%
10/2/2025 9:07:28 AM short term up 5 days later +1.42% +1.42%
10/1/2025 10:25:13 PM short term down 5 days later -0.21% +0.21%
9/26/2025 1:25:54 AM short term down 7 days later +1.49% -1.49%
9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM short term up 7 days later -0.60% -0.60%
9/19/2025 8:51:38 AM short term up 7 days later -0.60% -0.60%
9/19/2025 7:17:12 AM short term up 7 days later -0.60% -0.60%
9/12/2025 7:15:05 AM short term up 7 days later +1.92% +1.92%
9/11/2025 8:51:28 PM short term up 5 days later +0.55% +0.55%
9/10/2025 8:24:03 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.17% +1.76%
9/4/2025 9:41:48 AM short term up 5 days later +0.83% +0.83%
9/3/2025 12:19:28 AM short term up 5 days later +0.88% +0.88%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM short term up 6 days later +2.29% +2.29%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM short term up 6 days later +2.29% +2.29%
8/28/2025 7:11:09 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -+0.00% +0.00%
8/27/2025 1:15:21 AM short term up 5 days later -1.99% -1.99%
8/25/2025 12:19:20 PM short term up 7 days later -1.25% -1.25%
8/21/2025 7:19:44 AM short term down 5 days later +0.29% -0.29%
8/20/2025 11:22:19 PM short term down 5 days later +1.65% -1.65%
8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM short term down 5 days later +1.65% -1.65%
8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM short term down 5 days later +1.65% -1.65%
8/12/2025 8:37:14 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.57% +0.28%
8/7/2025 9:54:40 AM short term up 5 days later +1.01% +1.01%
8/5/2025 10:31:22 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.91% -0.45%
7/25/2025 12:39:07 PM short term up 7 days later -0.72% -0.72%
7/16/2025 9:14:41 AM short term up 5 days later -0.08% -0.08%
Show all 105 ndx results
rut
A broad stock market dip will hit small caps (RUT) harder due to higher sensitivity to rates and economic uncertainty.
wti
No progress on the Strait... the situation is broadening with attacks and drone interceptions.
193 calls
+5
slightly better than random
5/18/2026 11:32:06 AM medium term up 20 days later -15.26% -15.26%
5/15/2026 10:45:02 PM medium term up 21 days later -15.96% -15.96%
5/13/2026 9:18:02 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +6.52% -3.26%
5/13/2026 9:05:11 PM short term up 5 days later +6.52% +6.52%
5/13/2026 4:02:01 PM short term up 5 days later +6.52% +6.52%
5/13/2026 2:30:46 PM short term up 5 days later +6.52% +6.52%
5/13/2026 8:05:25 AM short term cautious up 5 days later +6.52% +3.26%
5/12/2026 6:29:30 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +7.56% +11.34%
5/12/2026 3:58:46 PM short term up 5 days later +7.56% +7.56%
5/12/2026 9:34:37 AM short term up 5 days later +7.56% +7.56%
5/11/2026 3:42:16 PM short term up 6 days later +6.34% +6.34%
5/11/2026 2:37:40 PM short term up 6 days later +6.34% +6.34%
5/11/2026 2:21:17 PM short term up 6 days later +6.34% +6.34%
5/11/2026 2:21:17 PM short term up 6 days later +6.34% +6.34%
5/11/2026 10:21:17 AM short term up 6 days later +6.34% +6.34%
5/11/2026 10:21:17 AM medium term up 20 days later -9.81% -9.81%
5/11/2026 10:08:16 AM short term up 6 days later +6.34% +6.34%
5/11/2026 10:08:16 AM short term up 6 days later +6.34% +6.34%
5/11/2026 7:45:07 AM short term up 6 days later +6.34% +6.34%
5/8/2026 10:50:00 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +10.80% +5.40%
5/8/2026 10:50:00 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later -6.03% -3.01%
5/8/2026 7:51:14 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +10.80% +5.40%
5/8/2026 10:34:17 AM short term up 7 days later +10.80% +10.80%
5/8/2026 10:33:30 AM short term up 7 days later +10.80% +10.80%
5/8/2026 9:39:28 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +10.80% +16.20%
5/8/2026 8:52:09 AM short term up 7 days later +10.80% +10.80%
5/7/2026 10:07:01 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -6.83% +3.42%
5/7/2026 9:40:03 PM short term up 5 days later +5.87% +5.87%
5/7/2026 9:26:20 PM short term up 5 days later +5.87% +5.87%
5/7/2026 8:09:28 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -6.83% +3.42%
5/7/2026 2:41:58 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +5.87% -2.93%
5/7/2026 10:02:35 AM short term down 5 days later +5.87% -5.87%
5/7/2026 7:06:33 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +5.87% -2.93%
5/6/2026 11:23:07 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +7.77% +3.89%
5/2/2026 3:08:03 PM short term sharp up 7 days later -7.85% -11.77%
5/1/2026 3:08:28 PM short term sharp up 7 days later -7.85% -11.77%
5/1/2026 3:05:47 PM short term sharp up 7 days later -7.85% -11.77%
5/1/2026 11:35:10 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -7.85% -11.77%
5/1/2026 9:53:00 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -7.85% -11.77%
4/30/2026 11:36:17 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.48% +2.74%
4/30/2026 3:40:05 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later -5.48% -8.23%
4/27/2026 7:39:37 PM medium term down 20 days later +8.74% -8.74%
4/27/2026 1:02:38 PM short term cautious up 6 days later +6.49% +3.25%
4/27/2026 10:29:21 AM short term cautious up 6 days later +6.49% +3.25%
4/24/2026 3:07:59 PM short term sharp up 7 days later +10.43% +15.64%
4/24/2026 1:23:43 PM short term sharp up 7 days later +10.43% +15.64%
4/24/2026 1:18:06 PM short term sharp up 7 days later +10.43% +15.64%
4/24/2026 11:16:33 AM short term up 7 days later +10.43% +10.43%
4/24/2026 11:01:37 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +10.43% +15.64%
4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +10.43% +15.64%
4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +10.43% +15.64%
4/24/2026 12:09:41 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +10.43% +15.64%
4/20/2026 11:58:40 PM short term down 6 days later +4.60% -4.60%
4/20/2026 7:06:15 PM short term down 6 days later +4.60% -4.60%
4/20/2026 7:38:52 AM short term up 6 days later +4.60% +4.60%
4/18/2026 2:40:06 AM medium term down 21 days later +9.44% -9.44%
4/18/2026 2:18:29 AM short term sharp down 7 days later +7.54% -11.32%
4/18/2026 12:01:38 AM short term sharp down 7 days later +7.54% -11.32%
4/17/2026 4:22:48 PM short term down 7 days later +7.54% -7.54%
4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM short term up 6 days later -1.83% -1.83%
4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM short term sharp up 6 days later -1.83% -2.74%
4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM short term up 6 days later -1.83% -1.83%
4/13/2026 7:00:27 PM short term up 6 days later -1.83% -1.83%
4/13/2026 2:27:08 PM short term sharp up 6 days later -1.83% -2.74%
4/12/2026 7:34:52 PM short term sharp up 7 days later -9.56% -14.34%
4/12/2026 3:41:23 PM short term up 7 days later -9.56% -9.56%
4/12/2026 3:41:14 PM short term up 7 days later -9.56% -9.56%
4/10/2026 10:10:32 PM short term up 7 days later -9.56% -9.56%
4/10/2026 3:55:23 PM medium term up 21 days later +7.41% +7.41%
4/10/2026 1:31:13 PM medium term up 21 days later +7.41% +7.41%
4/10/2026 12:31:57 AM short term cautious up 7 days later -9.56% -4.78%
4/6/2026 10:30:45 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -14.68% +7.34%
4/6/2026 7:54:23 PM medium term up 20 days later -14.68% -14.68%
4/4/2026 7:49:11 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -14.27% +7.13%
4/3/2026 3:02:21 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -11.86% -17.79%
4/3/2026 12:36:51 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -11.86% -17.79%
3/30/2026 3:30:54 PM short term cautious up 6 days later +10.88% +5.44%
3/30/2026 2:09:27 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later -11.61% -17.41%
3/30/2026 2:04:13 PM short term sharp up 6 days later +10.88% +16.32%
3/30/2026 8:40:46 AM short term sharp up 6 days later +10.88% +16.32%
3/29/2026 5:07:24 PM short term up 7 days later +9.26% +9.26%
3/28/2026 6:03:36 PM short term up 7 days later +9.26% +9.26%
3/27/2026 11:07:21 PM short term sharp up 7 days later +9.26% +13.89%
3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +9.26% +13.89%
3/27/2026 2:00:21 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +9.26% +13.89%
3/25/2026 10:52:54 AM short term down 5 days later +7.30% -7.30%
3/23/2026 9:56:47 AM short term cautious up 6 days later +11.40% +5.70%
3/21/2026 1:47:39 AM long term sharp down 60 days later +9.61% -14.42%
3/20/2026 4:06:06 PM short term sharp up 7 days later +16.74% +25.10%
3/20/2026 2:30:40 AM short term up 7 days later +16.74% +16.74%
3/13/2026 9:25:35 PM medium term sharp up 21 days later +20.22% +30.34%
3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -5.74% -2.87%
3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -5.74% -2.87%
3/13/2026 9:59:21 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -5.74% -8.61%
3/11/2026 10:09:41 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.50% +0.75%
3/10/2026 9:18:14 AM medium term up 20 days later +16.19% +16.19%
3/10/2026 2:38:02 AM medium term down 20 days later +16.19% -16.19%
3/10/2026 12:08:58 AM short term up 5 days later +7.16% +7.16%
3/9/2026 6:46:13 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later +23.28% +34.93%
3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM short term sharp up 6 days later +12.04% +18.06%
3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM short term sharp up 6 days later +12.04% +18.06%
3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM short term up 6 days later +12.04% +12.04%
3/9/2026 8:28:21 AM short term sharp up 6 days later +12.04% +18.06%
3/9/2026 6:55:49 AM short term sharp up 6 days later +12.04% +18.06%
3/8/2026 3:01:00 AM short term up 7 days later -1.34% -1.34%
3/5/2026 10:50:58 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -4.02% -6.02%
3/5/2026 2:02:48 PM short term up 5 days later -4.02% -4.02%
3/4/2026 2:05:06 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +3.01% +4.52%
3/4/2026 5:43:12 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +3.01% -1.51%
3/3/2026 10:53:30 AM short term up 5 days later +26.94% +26.94%
3/3/2026 8:39:08 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +26.94% +40.40%
3/2/2026 8:34:28 PM medium term down 20 days later +18.20% -18.20%
2/25/2026 9:27:27 AM short term cautious up 5 days later +14.34% +7.17%
2/20/2026 2:32:12 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +7.42% +3.71%
2/20/2026 10:59:11 AM short term up 7 days later +7.42% +7.42%
2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -1.46% -0.73%
2/19/2026 10:55:34 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +44.19% -22.10%
2/11/2026 10:46:14 PM short term up 5 days later -0.81% -0.81%
2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM short term down 6 days later +1.82% -1.82%
2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM short term down 6 days later +1.82% -1.82%
1/30/2026 6:19:23 AM short term cautious up 7 days later +3.57% +1.79%
1/29/2026 9:02:44 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +1.87% -0.94%
1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM short term up 5 days later +0.02% +0.02%
1/16/2026 7:33:17 PM short term sharp up 7 days later +2.02% +3.03%
1/12/2026 6:04:30 PM medium term down 20 days later +1.62% -1.62%
1/10/2026 2:50:05 AM medium term down 21 days later +4.44% -4.44%
1/9/2026 6:25:43 AM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.12% +0.06%
1/7/2026 9:00:08 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +5.87% -2.93%
12/22/2025 11:02:38 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -0.51% +0.26%
12/22/2025 9:48:16 PM short term up 6 days later -0.51% -0.51%
12/22/2025 7:55:54 AM long term down 62 days later +13.58% -13.58%
12/19/2025 10:53:44 PM medium term down 21 days later +2.57% -2.57%
12/19/2025 9:48:49 PM short term up 7 days later +0.12% +0.12%
12/18/2025 9:42:38 PM short term down 5 days later +2.98% -2.98%
12/18/2025 1:08:16 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +2.98% +1.49%
12/17/2025 2:09:01 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +3.97% -1.99%
12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM short term sharp down 5 days later +3.70% -5.55%
12/16/2025 11:22:24 PM medium term sharp down 20 days later +2.13% -3.19%
11/24/2025 10:29:53 AM long term cautious down 62 days later +4.62% -2.31%
10/23/2025 2:05:44 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -1.66% -2.49%
10/22/2025 11:01:29 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.65% +1.33%
10/21/2025 9:16:26 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +4.80% -2.40%
10/20/2025 6:00:17 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +6.04% -3.02%
9/30/2025 11:07:33 PM short term down 5 days later -0.15% +0.15%
9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.15% +0.07%
9/29/2025 7:07:25 AM short term cautious down 6 days later -1.09% +0.55%
9/29/2025 7:07:25 AM short term down 6 days later -1.09% +1.09%
9/24/2025 7:52:42 AM short term up 5 days later -4.02% -4.02%
9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM short term down 7 days later +1.29% -1.29%
9/9/2025 8:33:16 PM short term up 5 days later -0.58% -0.58%
9/8/2025 11:19:17 PM short term up 6 days later +1.07% +1.07%
9/8/2025 11:11:54 AM short term cautious up 6 days later +1.07% +0.53%
9/8/2025 8:18:05 AM short term down 6 days later +1.07% -1.07%
9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM short term down 7 days later +1.67% -1.67%
9/5/2025 7:27:44 AM medium term cautious down 21 days later +1.91% -0.96%
9/4/2025 11:19:15 AM short term down 5 days later +2.91% -2.91%
8/18/2025 11:10:24 PM short term up 6 days later +3.93% +3.93%
8/15/2025 11:21:59 PM short term down 7 days later +2.18% -2.18%
8/14/2025 11:46:57 PM short term up 5 days later +0.65% +0.65%
8/11/2025 10:07:32 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.40% -0.20%
8/8/2025 8:23:48 PM short term down 7 days later -0.84% +0.84%
8/8/2025 10:13:14 AM short term sharp down 7 days later -0.84% +1.27%
8/5/2025 10:44:07 AM short term down 5 days later -0.61% +0.61%
8/4/2025 11:29:13 PM short term down 6 days later -1.84% +1.84%
8/4/2025 9:08:09 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -1.84% +0.92%
Show all 165 wti results
yields
Bonds have already priced in the panic. Long-term debt buyers will come in to lock in higher yields, suggesting yields may stabilize.

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