The narrative has flipped. The bond market is now in control, hiking rates on its own due to fiscal excess, not the Fed. This de facto tightening is a direct threat to the dangerously narrow AI rally. Market internals are poor (only 44% of stocks > 50dma), signaling a high probability of a 5-10% correction centered on tech. The equal-weight index is the only ballast, suggesting a painful range-bound market, not a systemic crash.
explicit
explicit
explicit
Metals
USD
CNBC
4.0
Financial Media
Joe Terranova 7.0
Financial Media
Joe Terranova 7.0
5/18/2026 8:57:56 PM
ndx
There's going to be a much bigger correction in the AI trade.
| 10/10/2025 6:54:59 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.46% | -2.46% |
| 10/1/2025 8:37:05 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.21% | -0.21% |
| 9/18/2025 3:05:09 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.50% | +0.25% |
| 9/6/2025 2:37:59 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +2.24% | -1.12% |
| 9/5/2025 2:48:48 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.24% | +2.24% |
| 9/2/2025 5:00:10 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.48% | -1.48% |
| 8/4/2025 4:22:01 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +2.21% | -2.21% |
rut
The equal-weight index hasn't moved as much, which will be the ballast keeping overall indices from going down further. Only 44% of stocks above 50-day MA shows weakness but not a crash.
wti
Oil prices will go higher as long as we keep with the blockade.
| 5/13/2026 10:53:45 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +6.52% |
| 5/6/2026 3:20:01 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +7.77% | -7.77% |
| 4/13/2026 8:34:50 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 3/3/2026 7:49:07 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +40.40% |
yields
The bond market is hiking itself. The deficit is conspiring to drive up rates. There is no off-ramp for rates.
| 5/13/2026 3:58:23 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.62% | +4.62% |
| 1/14/2026 4:01:24 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.76% | +2.76% |
| 12/26/2025 10:44:03 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +2.79% | +1.40% |
| 12/19/2025 9:52:12 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.27% | -1.27% |
| 12/12/2025 10:10:57 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.31% | -0.31% |
| 12/8/2025 8:08:40 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.10% | -0.10% |
| 12/2/2025 10:26:40 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.76% | +2.76% |
| 11/26/2025 5:09:32 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +2.20% | +1.10% |
| 11/14/2025 10:02:14 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -2.30% | -1.15% |
| 11/13/2025 9:40:00 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.36% | -0.36% |
| 10/31/2025 9:02:06 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +0.10% | +0.15% |
| 10/30/2025 1:11:10 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.37% | +0.68% |
| 10/28/2025 3:55:04 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.18% | -0.59% |
| 10/15/2025 9:48:44 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.33% | -0.16% |
| 10/10/2025 10:13:48 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.09% | +0.54% |
| 10/9/2025 8:36:27 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.12% | -0.06% |
| 10/2/2025 9:51:20 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.24% | -0.12% |
| 10/1/2025 7:40:01 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.95% | -0.95% |
| 9/26/2025 9:43:54 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +0.51% | +0.25% |
| 9/25/2025 9:42:20 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -1.93% | -2.90% |
| 9/12/2025 1:09:47 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +2.70% | +1.35% |
| 9/11/2025 9:43:20 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.37% | +0.37% |
| 9/11/2025 4:21:20 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.18% |
| 9/5/2025 8:42:13 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.30% | +0.30% |
| 9/2/2025 5:53:30 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -3.92% | +1.96% |
| 9/2/2025 5:00:10 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -3.92% | -1.96% |
| 8/26/2025 5:10:10 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.00% | +2.50% |
| 8/20/2025 6:15:09 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.66% | +0.83% |
| 8/20/2025 4:19:17 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.66% | +0.83% |
| 8/15/2025 9:51:48 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.52% | -1.52% |
| 8/14/2025 3:53:08 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.74% | -1.11% |
| 8/7/2025 6:28:51 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.10% | +0.55% |
| 8/6/2025 10:00:41 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.15% | -0.58% |
| 8/6/2025 12:29:47 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.15% | -0.58% |
| 8/4/2025 4:22:01 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.88% | -0.94% |
| 7/21/2025 5:52:01 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.94% | -1.94% |
