Erdogan consolidates power via judicial fiat, throwing the main opposition into chaos. The market correctly reads this as a major risk-off event, dumping Turkish equities, bonds, and the lira. This move clears the path for an early election and an extension of his rule. The recent narrative of policy normalization under Simsek is now secondary to the repricing of Turkey's political risk premium. The 'un-investable' label is back on the table.

explicit
NDX
Oil
Metals

explicit
Turkish stocks sharp down
Bloomberg 7.0
Financial Media
Murat Oztaskin 3.0
5/22/2026 9:17:41 PM
dxy
The lira and bonds also came under sell-off pressure.
67 calls
-1
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
5/15/2026 10:06:02 AM short term up 6 days later +0.35% +0.35%
5/15/2026 7:54:32 AM short term up 6 days later +0.35% +0.35%
5/14/2026 8:54:29 AM medium term down 20 days later +0.14% -0.14%
5/11/2026 2:37:40 PM short term up 6 days later +0.69% +0.69%
5/7/2026 11:14:07 AM short term down 5 days later +0.65% -0.65%
5/7/2026 10:02:35 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.65% -0.33%
5/7/2026 10:02:35 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +1.21% -0.60%
5/7/2026 9:41:16 AM short term down 5 days later +0.65% -0.65%
5/6/2026 7:07:04 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.04% -0.02%
4/30/2026 8:02:59 AM short term up 5 days later -0.19% -0.19%
4/23/2026 1:31:31 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.38% +0.38%
4/22/2026 7:34:33 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.18% +0.09%
4/2/2026 10:09:57 AM short term up 5 days later -1.05% -1.05%
4/1/2026 10:17:51 AM short term up 5 days later -0.39% -0.39%
3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -0.53% -0.79%
3/23/2026 9:48:17 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -1.07% -1.60%
3/23/2026 7:21:12 AM short term up 6 days later +1.09% +1.09%
3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM short term up 6 days later +0.89% +0.89%
3/9/2026 8:28:21 AM short term up 6 days later +0.89% +0.89%
3/6/2026 10:25:51 AM short term up 5 days later +1.52% +1.52%
2/23/2026 2:15:21 PM short term down 6 days later +0.51% -0.51%
2/13/2026 9:47:08 AM short term down 7 days later +0.62% -0.62%
2/11/2026 10:51:35 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.24% -0.12%
2/6/2026 5:34:10 AM short term up 7 days later +0.28% +0.28%
1/29/2026 9:02:44 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.97% -0.48%
1/29/2026 9:23:52 AM short term down 5 days later +0.65% -0.65%
1/29/2026 9:18:07 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.97% -0.48%
1/29/2026 9:02:17 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.97% -0.48%
1/28/2026 7:33:33 AM short term down 5 days later +1.20% -1.20%
1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM short term sharp down 5 days later +1.20% -1.81%
1/27/2026 11:03:03 PM short term down 5 days later +1.20% -1.20%
1/26/2026 4:46:43 AM short term down 6 days later +1.44% -1.44%
1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM short term down 5 days later -1.74% +1.74%
1/20/2026 5:25:20 AM short term down 5 days later -1.74% +1.74%
1/14/2026 6:48:56 AM medium term down 20 days later -1.71% +1.71%
1/12/2026 3:24:56 PM short term down 6 days later +0.27% -0.27%
1/12/2026 2:06:59 PM short term down 6 days later +0.27% -0.27%
12/23/2025 10:14:37 AM medium term up 20 days later +1.17% +1.17%
12/11/2025 6:13:10 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.03% +0.02%
12/4/2025 6:49:20 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.20% +0.10%
12/1/2025 5:28:31 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.08% +0.54%
11/4/2025 12:00:38 PM long term up 61 days later -1.93% -1.93%
10/17/2025 10:27:37 AM short term down 5 days later +0.43% -0.43%
10/1/2025 10:52:02 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.75% -0.37%
10/1/2025 8:12:58 AM short term down 5 days later +0.75% -0.75%
10/1/2025 8:12:58 AM medium term down 20 days later +1.07% -1.07%
9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.41% -0.20%
9/25/2025 1:14:48 PM short term up 5 days later -0.45% -0.45%
9/17/2025 10:11:21 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.09% +0.05%
9/17/2025 8:33:28 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.09% +0.05%
9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM short term down 7 days later -0.15% +0.15%
8/26/2025 8:35:09 AM short term down 6 days later +0.17% -0.17%
8/1/2025 2:29:07 PM short term up 7 days later -0.26% -0.26%
8/1/2025 12:29:01 PM short term up 7 days later -0.26% -0.26%
Show all 54 dxy results
rut
The decision triggered a sharp sell-off in the benchmark stock index.
43 calls
+3
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
5/22/2026 10:35:21 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.75% -0.87%
5/19/2026 11:25:08 PM short term down 5 days later +1.84% -1.84%
5/18/2026 7:27:09 PM medium term up 20 days later +3.94% +3.94%
5/18/2026 8:51:01 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +4.45% -2.22%
5/16/2026 12:12:07 AM short term down 6 days later +3.39% -3.39%
5/15/2026 11:52:13 PM short term down 6 days later +3.39% -3.39%
5/7/2026 7:06:33 AM short term up 5 days later -0.60% -0.60%
5/7/2026 7:06:33 AM medium term up 20 days later +2.63% +2.63%
5/6/2026 10:11:25 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later +2.83% +1.41%
4/30/2026 11:53:22 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +2.63% +3.94%
4/23/2026 11:26:18 PM short term down 5 days later -1.71% +1.71%
4/22/2026 12:50:22 AM short term down 5 days later -0.69% +0.69%
4/15/2026 12:05:32 AM short term up 5 days later +1.67% +1.67%
4/10/2026 12:48:22 AM short term up 7 days later +4.59% +4.59%
4/3/2026 12:36:51 AM short term up 7 days later +5.11% +5.11%
3/20/2026 2:30:40 AM short term cautious up 7 days later -3.22% -1.61%
3/19/2026 10:26:26 PM short term up 5 days later +4.02% +4.02%
3/6/2026 3:54:59 PM short term down 5 days later -1.79% +1.79%
2/28/2026 1:02:34 AM medium term up 21 days later -6.09% -6.09%
2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM short term up 5 days later -0.02% -0.02%
2/13/2026 12:58:03 AM short term down 7 days later -0.97% +0.97%
2/6/2026 11:41:39 PM short term up 7 days later -1.57% -1.57%
1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM short term up 5 days later -0.24% -0.24%
12/22/2025 9:48:16 PM short term up 6 days later -0.84% -0.84%
12/19/2025 9:48:49 PM short term up 7 days later -1.52% -1.52%
12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM short term down 5 days later +2.67% -2.67%
12/15/2025 8:22:43 PM short term up 6 days later +1.57% +1.57%
Show all 27 rut results
yields
The lira and bonds also came under sell-off pressure.
208 calls
-1
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
5/22/2026 4:48:45 PM short term up 5 days later -2.30% -2.30%
5/22/2026 10:35:21 AM medium term up 22 days later -1.56% -1.56%
5/22/2026 10:35:21 AM medium term up 22 days later -1.56% -1.56%
5/21/2026 9:08:20 PM short term up 5 days later -1.69% -1.69%
5/20/2026 12:04:34 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -2.03% -3.04%
5/20/2026 10:29:52 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -2.03% -3.04%
5/20/2026 9:05:17 AM short term up 5 days later -2.03% -2.03%
5/19/2026 11:25:08 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.31% -0.46%
5/19/2026 8:14:25 PM short term up 5 days later -0.31% -0.31%
5/19/2026 5:57:57 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.31% -0.46%
5/19/2026 10:44:11 AM short term up 5 days later -0.31% -0.31%
5/19/2026 10:44:11 AM short term up 5 days later -0.31% -0.31%
5/19/2026 10:30:32 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.31% -0.46%
5/19/2026 8:42:26 AM medium term up 20 days later -0.96% -0.96%
5/19/2026 8:29:51 AM short term up 5 days later -0.31% -0.31%
5/18/2026 7:27:09 PM short term up 5 days later -2.34% -2.34%
5/18/2026 4:03:29 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -2.34% +3.50%
5/18/2026 2:18:22 PM short term up 5 days later -2.34% -2.34%
5/18/2026 11:32:06 AM medium term up 20 days later -2.46% -2.46%
5/18/2026 11:24:21 AM short term up 5 days later -2.34% -2.34%
5/18/2026 11:10:00 AM short term up 5 days later -2.34% -2.34%
5/18/2026 8:51:01 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -2.34% -3.50%
5/18/2026 8:47:22 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -2.34% -3.50%
5/18/2026 8:47:22 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -2.34% -3.50%
5/18/2026 8:47:22 AM short term up 5 days later -2.34% -2.34%
5/16/2026 12:12:07 AM short term sharp up 6 days later -1.41% -2.11%
5/15/2026 11:52:13 PM short term sharp down 6 days later -1.41% +2.11%
5/15/2026 6:52:37 PM short term sharp up 6 days later -1.41% -2.11%
5/15/2026 5:30:11 PM short term up 6 days later -1.41% -1.41%
5/15/2026 4:01:38 PM short term cautious up 6 days later -1.41% -0.70%
5/15/2026 2:16:51 PM short term up 6 days later -1.41% -1.41%
5/15/2026 10:06:02 AM short term up 6 days later -1.41% -1.41%
5/15/2026 8:54:12 AM short term sharp up 6 days later -1.41% -2.11%
5/15/2026 7:54:32 AM short term up 6 days later -1.41% -1.41%
5/14/2026 10:22:14 AM medium term up 20 days later -2.57% -2.57%
5/14/2026 8:48:58 AM short term up 5 days later -0.50% -0.50%
5/13/2026 2:30:46 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.67% +0.67%
5/13/2026 2:30:46 PM short term up 5 days later +4.62% +4.62%
5/13/2026 10:40:42 AM medium term up 20 days later +0.67% +0.67%
5/13/2026 7:39:00 AM short term up 5 days later +4.62% +4.62%
5/12/2026 9:34:37 AM short term up 5 days later +3.17% +3.17%
5/12/2026 2:49:50 AM short term up 5 days later +3.17% +3.17%
5/11/2026 3:42:16 PM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/11/2026 3:12:21 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.27% +0.27%
5/11/2026 2:37:40 PM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/11/2026 10:33:48 AM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/11/2026 10:21:17 AM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/8/2026 10:34:17 AM medium term up 21 days later +1.47% +1.47%
5/8/2026 8:52:09 AM short term up 7 days later +4.83% +4.83%
5/7/2026 11:14:07 AM medium term up 20 days later +2.09% +2.09%
5/5/2026 10:43:29 AM short term up 5 days later +1.24% +1.24%
5/5/2026 9:59:09 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.24% +1.86%
5/5/2026 6:19:06 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.24% +1.86%
5/1/2026 4:44:32 PM short term up 7 days later -0.81% -0.81%
4/30/2026 2:14:39 PM short term up 5 days later -0.50% -0.50%
4/30/2026 8:02:59 AM short term up 5 days later -0.50% -0.50%
4/22/2026 12:50:22 AM short term up 5 days later +0.72% +0.72%
4/21/2026 4:08:13 PM short term up 5 days later +0.98% +0.98%
4/18/2026 12:01:38 AM short term sharp down 7 days later +2.02% -3.04%
4/17/2026 12:08:37 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later +3.76% +1.88%
4/15/2026 12:05:32 AM short term down 5 days later -0.39% +0.39%
4/14/2026 10:13:21 AM long term up 61 days later +4.79% +4.79%
4/13/2026 7:00:27 PM short term up 6 days later -0.14% -0.14%
4/9/2026 11:01:58 PM short term up 5 days later -0.81% -0.81%
4/3/2026 12:36:51 AM short term down 7 days later -0.88% +0.88%
4/2/2026 4:45:47 PM short term up 5 days later -0.51% -0.51%
4/2/2026 10:09:57 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.51% -0.77%
4/1/2026 11:17:06 AM short term down 5 days later +0.70% -0.70%
4/1/2026 10:17:51 AM short term down 5 days later +0.70% -0.70%
3/31/2026 10:09:41 AM short term up 5 days later +0.37% +0.37%
3/30/2026 2:09:27 PM short term up 6 days later +0.56% +0.56%
3/30/2026 10:29:13 AM short term down 6 days later +0.56% -0.56%
3/30/2026 8:40:46 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.56% -0.28%
3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -0.16% -0.24%
3/27/2026 10:05:53 AM medium term up 21 days later -2.12% -2.12%
3/27/2026 2:00:21 AM short term up 7 days later -0.16% -0.16%
3/25/2026 10:19:55 AM medium term up 20 days later -3.03% -3.03%
3/23/2026 7:21:12 AM short term up 6 days later -1.14% -1.14%
3/20/2026 2:30:40 AM short term up 7 days later +0.18% +0.18%
3/13/2026 9:58:26 PM short term up 7 days later +2.70% +2.70%
3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM short term down 7 days later +2.70% -2.70%
3/13/2026 4:40:53 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later +2.73% -1.36%
3/13/2026 9:59:21 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +2.70% +4.05%
3/13/2026 6:44:24 AM short term up 7 days later +2.70% +2.70%
3/11/2026 10:02:21 AM short term down 5 days later -1.66% +1.66%
3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM short term up 6 days later +2.03% +2.03%
3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM short term up 6 days later +2.03% +2.03%
3/6/2026 3:54:59 PM short term down 5 days later +3.68% -3.68%
3/6/2026 10:25:51 AM short term up 5 days later +3.68% +3.68%
3/3/2026 9:47:37 PM short term up 5 days later +1.37% +1.37%
3/3/2026 10:53:30 AM short term up 5 days later +1.37% +1.37%
2/28/2026 1:02:34 AM medium term sharp down 21 days later +7.07% -10.60%
2/20/2026 5:23:54 PM short term up 7 days later +0.47% +0.47%
2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM short term up 5 days later -0.93% -0.93%
2/19/2026 2:30:40 PM short term up 5 days later -0.93% -0.93%
2/19/2026 8:04:55 AM medium term up 20 days later +4.58% +4.58%
2/18/2026 11:17:07 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.26% +1.63%
2/18/2026 9:44:49 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.26% +1.63%
2/13/2026 9:18:42 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -0.67% -0.33%
2/6/2026 11:41:39 PM short term up 7 days later -3.38% -3.38%
2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM medium term up 20 days later -5.73% -5.73%
1/30/2026 10:19:09 AM short term up 7 days later -1.80% -1.80%
1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM short term up 5 days later +1.11% +1.11%
1/21/2026 3:54:53 PM long term up 60 days later +2.00% +2.00%
1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM short term up 5 days later -0.94% -0.94%
1/20/2026 3:56:13 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later -2.49% -3.74%
1/20/2026 5:25:20 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.94% -1.41%
1/12/2026 3:24:56 PM short term up 6 days later +1.44% +1.44%
1/12/2026 2:06:59 PM short term up 6 days later +1.44% +1.44%
1/12/2026 2:06:59 PM short term cautious up 6 days later +1.44% +0.72%
12/24/2025 2:57:09 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.58% +0.29%
12/19/2025 10:45:28 AM medium term up 21 days later +0.43% +0.43%
12/19/2025 8:37:44 AM medium term up 21 days later +0.43% +0.43%
12/18/2025 11:18:27 PM short term down 5 days later -0.36% +0.36%
12/18/2025 1:08:16 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.77% +0.77%
12/17/2025 7:04:39 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.53% +0.27%
12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM short term down 5 days later +0.43% -0.43%
12/11/2025 10:26:28 AM short term down 5 days later -1.03% +1.03%
12/11/2025 10:09:14 AM short term up 5 days later -1.03% -1.03%
12/9/2025 10:44:30 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.43% +0.65%
12/9/2025 6:08:48 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -0.82% -1.22%
12/8/2025 7:49:51 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.67% -0.84%
12/4/2025 5:57:16 AM short term down 5 days later +0.60% -0.60%
12/1/2025 5:28:31 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +2.10% -1.05%
11/28/2025 12:53:14 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +1.86% +0.93%
11/12/2025 2:18:30 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.27% -0.13%
11/12/2025 10:01:21 AM short term sharp down 5 days later +0.27% -0.40%
11/12/2025 7:56:58 AM short term sharp down 5 days later +0.27% -0.40%
11/11/2025 3:01:41 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.67% -0.84%
11/6/2025 2:13:19 PM short term down 5 days later -0.68% +0.68%
11/4/2025 12:00:38 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -1.13% -0.57%
10/21/2025 10:46:09 AM medium term up 20 days later +4.22% +4.22%
10/17/2025 10:27:37 AM short term down 5 days later -0.25% +0.25%
10/8/2025 9:34:41 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -3.04% +1.52%
10/2/2025 3:40:39 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.24% -0.12%
10/2/2025 12:44:17 AM short term down 5 days later +0.24% -0.24%
10/1/2025 10:52:02 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.95% -0.48%
9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM short term down 5 days later +1.36% -1.36%
9/26/2025 2:08:35 PM medium term up 20 days later -3.24% -3.24%
9/26/2025 7:55:36 AM short term cautious up 7 days later +0.51% +0.25%
9/26/2025 1:25:54 AM short term cautious up 7 days later +0.51% +0.25%
9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM short term up 7 days later -0.05% -0.05%
9/19/2025 9:19:21 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later -2.22% -1.11%
9/17/2025 10:11:21 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/12/2025 7:15:05 AM short term down 7 days later +2.70% -2.70%
9/10/2025 8:24:03 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM short term down 7 days later -0.30% +0.30%
9/5/2025 8:47:44 AM short term down 7 days later -0.30% +0.30%
9/5/2025 8:47:44 AM short term down 7 days later -0.30% +0.30%
9/5/2025 7:27:44 AM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.30% +0.15%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.13% +1.57%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -3.13% -4.70%
8/28/2025 1:17:57 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.38% -0.19%
8/28/2025 7:11:09 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -2.91% -4.36%
8/27/2025 10:15:27 AM short term cautious up 5 days later +1.66% +0.83%
8/27/2025 6:53:39 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later -3.11% -1.56%
8/26/2025 7:44:57 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/25/2025 12:19:20 PM short term down 7 days later +0.45% -0.45%
8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.66% +0.83%
8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.49% +0.24%
8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.49% +0.24%
8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.17% +2.58%
8/15/2025 10:20:21 AM short term cautious up 7 days later -1.52% -0.76%
8/5/2025 10:44:07 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.26% -0.63%
8/4/2025 10:45:50 AM short term sharp down 6 days later +1.84% -2.75%
7/22/2025 6:22:47 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.73% -0.36%
Show all 166 yields results

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