Justina Lee analyzes the market reaction to Keir Starmer's resignation, noting the pound's initial slide and recovery, FTSE 250 declines, and gilt yield rise. She attributes some pound weakness to broader dollar strength and emphasizes uncertainty over Andy Burnham's fiscal policy and choice of chancellor.

implicit
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals

explicit
Bloomberg 7.0
Financial Media
Justina Lee 3.5
6/22/2026 2:31:49 PM
dxy
generally a day of dollar strength
75 calls
-1
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
6/19/2026 6:22:05 AM short term up 7 days later +0.10% +0.10%
6/18/2026 10:05:22 AM short term up 5 days later +0.75% +0.75%
6/17/2026 10:47:56 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.56% -0.28%
6/15/2026 6:39:51 AM short term down 6 days later +1.49% -1.49%
6/15/2026 6:06:57 AM short term down 6 days later +1.49% -1.49%
6/11/2026 7:18:14 AM short term up 5 days later +0.34% +0.34%
6/4/2026 5:20:52 AM short term up 5 days later -0.12% -0.12%
6/1/2026 9:55:28 AM short term cautious up 6 days later +0.84% +0.42%
5/29/2026 1:15:10 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +0.86% -0.43%
5/29/2026 12:40:23 PM medium term down 21 days later +1.83% -1.83%
5/29/2026 10:33:35 AM medium term down 21 days later +1.83% -1.83%
5/28/2026 7:57:05 AM short term up 5 days later +0.63% +0.63%
5/26/2026 7:28:47 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.04% +0.02%
5/25/2026 9:42:20 AM short term down 6 days later -0.04% +0.04%
5/25/2026 9:42:20 AM short term down 6 days later -0.04% +0.04%
5/22/2026 9:17:41 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -0.41% +0.62%
5/15/2026 10:06:02 AM short term up 6 days later +0.35% +0.35%
5/15/2026 7:54:32 AM short term up 6 days later +0.35% +0.35%
5/14/2026 8:54:29 AM medium term down 20 days later +0.14% -0.14%
5/11/2026 2:37:40 PM short term up 6 days later +0.69% +0.69%
5/7/2026 11:14:07 AM short term down 5 days later +0.65% -0.65%
5/7/2026 10:02:35 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.65% -0.33%
5/7/2026 10:02:35 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +1.21% -0.60%
5/7/2026 9:41:16 AM short term down 5 days later +0.65% -0.65%
5/6/2026 7:07:04 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.04% -0.02%
4/30/2026 8:02:59 AM short term up 5 days later -0.19% -0.19%
4/23/2026 1:31:31 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.38% +0.38%
4/22/2026 7:34:33 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.18% +0.09%
4/2/2026 10:09:57 AM short term up 5 days later -1.05% -1.05%
4/1/2026 10:17:51 AM short term up 5 days later -0.39% -0.39%
3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -0.53% -0.79%
3/23/2026 9:48:17 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -1.07% -1.60%
3/23/2026 7:21:12 AM short term up 6 days later +1.09% +1.09%
3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM short term up 6 days later +0.89% +0.89%
3/9/2026 8:28:21 AM short term up 6 days later +0.89% +0.89%
3/6/2026 10:25:51 AM short term up 5 days later +1.52% +1.52%
2/23/2026 2:15:21 PM short term down 6 days later +0.51% -0.51%
2/13/2026 9:47:08 AM short term down 7 days later +0.62% -0.62%
2/11/2026 10:51:35 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.24% -0.12%
2/6/2026 5:34:10 AM short term up 7 days later +0.28% +0.28%
1/29/2026 9:02:44 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.97% -0.48%
1/29/2026 9:23:52 AM short term down 5 days later +0.65% -0.65%
1/29/2026 9:18:07 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.97% -0.48%
1/29/2026 9:02:17 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.97% -0.48%
1/28/2026 7:33:33 AM short term down 5 days later +1.20% -1.20%
1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM short term sharp down 5 days later +1.20% -1.81%
1/27/2026 11:03:03 PM short term down 5 days later +1.20% -1.20%
1/26/2026 4:46:43 AM short term down 6 days later +1.44% -1.44%
1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM short term down 5 days later -1.74% +1.74%
1/20/2026 5:25:20 AM short term down 5 days later -1.74% +1.74%
1/14/2026 6:48:56 AM medium term down 20 days later -1.71% +1.71%
1/12/2026 3:24:56 PM short term down 6 days later +0.27% -0.27%
1/12/2026 2:06:59 PM short term down 6 days later +0.27% -0.27%
12/23/2025 10:14:37 AM medium term up 20 days later +1.17% +1.17%
12/11/2025 6:13:10 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.03% +0.02%
12/4/2025 6:49:20 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.20% +0.10%
12/1/2025 5:28:31 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.08% +0.54%
11/4/2025 12:00:38 PM long term up 61 days later -1.93% -1.93%
10/17/2025 10:27:37 AM short term down 5 days later +0.43% -0.43%
10/1/2025 10:52:02 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.75% -0.37%
10/1/2025 8:12:58 AM short term down 5 days later +0.75% -0.75%
10/1/2025 8:12:58 AM medium term down 20 days later +1.07% -1.07%
9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.41% -0.20%
9/25/2025 1:14:48 PM short term up 5 days later -0.45% -0.45%
9/17/2025 10:11:21 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.09% +0.05%
9/17/2025 8:33:28 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.09% +0.05%
9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM short term down 7 days later -0.15% +0.15%
8/26/2025 8:35:09 AM short term down 6 days later +0.17% -0.17%
8/1/2025 2:29:07 PM short term up 7 days later -0.26% -0.26%
8/1/2025 12:29:01 PM short term up 7 days later -0.26% -0.26%
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yields
Gilt yields rose 1bp despite falling European bond yields, indicating uncertainty over UK fiscal policy under a new leader.

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