Rapidan's Bob McNally on oil price outlook and blockade resolution (with Jonathan Ferro, Annmarie Horden)

Bob McNally is cautiously optimistic the oil price rally will end before causing a recession, expecting either a ceasefire or US military action to degrade Iran's capabilities in coming weeks. He sees Iran's signal about Omani waters as an admission they can't be the long-term tollkeeper. China is weathering the storm with stockpiles. A full resolution requires a 'big deal' on nuclear and other issues.

Yields

NDX

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

Rapidan Energy Group 1.0
Industry Research Firm
Bob McNally 8.0

Rapidan's Bob McNally on oil price outlook and blockade resolution (with Jonathan Ferro, Annmarie Horden)

wti

I'm cautiously optimistic we maybe see the end of the oil price rally hopefully before it has to come to recession. His base case expects a resolution (ceasefire or US action) in the coming weeks, which would alleviate supply fears and cap the rally.

12 calls

+18

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

3/30/2026 7:24:50 PM	short term sharp up	6 days later	+10.88%	+16.32%
3/14/2026 1:31:57 AM	short term sharp up	7 days later	-5.74%	-8.61%
3/14/2026 12:17:40 AM	medium term up	21 days later	+20.22%	+20.22%
2/26/2026 10:22:25 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+43.45%	+65.17%
1/9/2026 10:29:38 PM	long term up	60 days later	+65.90%	+65.90%
1/2/2026 9:58:07 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+3.96%	-1.98%
10/20/2025 10:01:23 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+6.04%	-3.02%
10/20/2025 9:50:44 PM	short term sharp down	6 days later	+6.04%	-9.05%
8/15/2025 10:37:13 PM	short term cautious up	7 days later	+2.18%	+1.09%

Show all 9 wti results

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