yields

I do believe that's going to lead to a steeper yield curve. Justification is deflationary trends from AI and China's trade surplus creating conditions for lower policy rates, which historically steepen the curve. The risk of elevated rates due to fiscal deficits and potential loss of foreign confidence in US Treasuries provides a secondary, longer-term bullish argument for yields.

dxy

The dollar is now trading at 3% risk premium discount to its model values... If we see this escalate tensions with the Fed, I think that premium will widen and the dollar will continue to trade at the discount.

metals

Gold has many tailwinds... Next 10% for gold should be easier from here because there's just so many tailwinds propelling the gold higher.

yields

One of the most important aspects of the news and as reflected in the market, it's simply a steepening of the yield curve in the U.S. when people are concerned about Fed independence... People get worried about long-term inflation and you're seeing reflected in gold prices rising, but you're also seeing it reflected in long-term yields going up relative to short-term yields.

metals

Gold and silver prices, they are heading in one direction from here. And that of course is a lot higher... The year of hard assets is only just warming up... Gold and silver... they're now positioned for breakout runs. Catalysts cited: years of underinvestment, tightening supply, accelerating industrial demand, rotation from overvalued equities/soft currencies, geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of easing real interest rates. Record price action and momentum in early 2026 supports the short-term 'sharp up' call.

ndx

Pricing is going up in cloud. Spot pricing is starting to go up. That tells you about the demand being generated all over the world. All told, we should have a very good year. Strong cloud pricing and demand growth indicates continued bullish outlook for tech/AI sector through 2026.

wti

We're going to get the oil flowing the way it should be... we'll be selling oil probably in much larger doses because they couldn't produce very much because their infrastructure was so bad so we'll be selling large amounts of oil to other countries Trump explicitly states US oil companies will invest billions to fix Venezuela's broken oil infrastructure, which currently produces at minimal levels ('4% and 5% of the energy out of the ground'), forecasting a dramatic increase in oil production and sales over the next year.

metals

"2026 is going to be explosive as well." "The journey is just going to be up and to the right for the most part." "[Gold] could we get to a 35,000... through 2032." Structural drivers: government/bank 'hidden hand' buying, geopolitical resource war (US vs. China/BRIX), export controls, refinery/credit bottlenecks, and a multi-year decoupling from monetary policy.

yields

It's important that we keep on adjusting our policy rate down... we ultimately will end up adjusting, continuing to adjust interest rates down. Miron argues that failing to cut rates in response to cooler inflation and a higher unemployment rate risks causing a recession. His base case is that the Fed will continue cutting.

yields

I think I do see eventually rates coming down lower because as inflation comes down all the way to 2% we'll need to have an interest rate that's consistent with that and also I think we're a little bit above neutral so we'll I think eventually we get there. The direction is conditional on inflation returning to 2% and the policy stance moving from 'mildly restrictive' towards neutral. There is no urgency or specific timeline, implying a gradual, cautious move over the medium term.

yields

the Fed will be looking to push against with further rate cuts, more than the market is pricing in for 2026 Labor market weakness (reasonable growth without job/wage gains) will be the Fed's sole focus, leading to more cuts than expected.

ndx

Tech stocks are gonna continue to rip into next year Based on view of early days in AI buildout (3% adoption), multi-year cycle, and spreading beyond mega-caps.

metals

We added a little bit more gold support fully the last week... We think it will. In fact, we added a little bit more gold... we've also been constructive of commodities. Action of adding gold to portfolios and explicit constructive view on commodities, driven by inflation expectations and portfolio resilience needs.

dxy

A major bear market in the US dollar will probably be one of the most important drivers for the gold market in the next year. Driven by Fed easing, fiscal dominance, and a shift in the global monetary system away from dollar hegemony towards a bifurcated system.

metals

We're in a really really strong bull market... We still have a couple of good years ahead... We'll see triple digit silver, I think that's pretty much a certainty. Based on monetary reorganization, fiscal dominance, central bank demand, silver supply deficits, and Western investor rediscovery. Position is 'aggressively overweight'.

yields

Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.5 to 3.75%... With today's decision, we have lowered our policy rate three quarters of a percentage point over our last three meetings. Rate cuts imply lower policy rates, which typically put downward pressure on short-term yields and influence the yield curve; explicit action taken to lower rates.

ndx

When bubbles are inflating, you want to be long. Go buy them. It's pretty straightforward. Guest explicitly states we are in the early innings of a potential AI bubble and advises to be long, not fight it. This is a direct bullish call on the tech/AI-heavy NDX.

yields

we judged it appropriate at this meeting to lower our policy rate by a quarter percentage point Rate cut decision based on shifted risk balance: upside inflation risks vs increased downside employment risks, with tariffs seen as temporary price shock rather than persistent inflation driver.

yields

Committee decided to lower the target range for the Federal Funds rate by a quarter percentage point Rate cut decision implemented; forward guidance suggests policy now in neutral range with data-dependent approach for future moves, implying cautious downward pressure on short-term yields.

yields

Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. Rate cut decision indicates Fed is actively lowering short-term policy rates, which typically puts downward pressure on yields across the curve in the near term.

yields

the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point Rate cut decision based on cooling labor market, elevated inflation, and increased downside risks to employment

yields

I hope they pause for a while and really assess where the economy is going... They're getting very close to neutral... continuing cutting is really moving policy into accommodation... they cannot continue to do that and move policy into a... accommodative stance. After the expected near-term cut, she advocates for a pause, implying policy rates (and thus yields) should stabilize as the Fed assesses the economy and maintains a somewhat restrictive stance to combat inflation.

metals

Gold will do better as a diversifier. So it has the effect in such times of raising the returns and diversifying the portfolio. His bullish view is conditional on the macro risks he outlines (debt, currency devaluation, political/geopolitical conflict). He sees gold as a hedge that will appreciate when these risks materialize and hurt other assets.

ndx

this is a tech bull market that goes on... for another few years

ndx

We said we have to cancel that forecast for November. November is going to be a big down the downward correction in the market. All the people and the hot stocks are going to have a big nasty surprise and we're going to have a big correction. We have we we're having the correction now you know many stocks are down 20% 30% He explicitly forecasts a November correction for 'hot stocks' (tech/AI). Also warns of a larger downturn in 2026. The short-term view is bearish.