Kaplan expects new Fed Chair Warsh to emphasize patience, less prognostication, and robust debate. He sees the current AI CapEx boom making inflation stickier, but the Strait of Hormuz opening and oil decline support a 'kick the can' approach. He warns of a divergence between affluent consumers and the bottom half of households losing purchasing power.
implicit
implicit
explicit
Metals
implicit
Goldman Sachs
9.0
Investment Bank $2500.00B
Robert Kaplan 8.8
Investment Bank $2500.00B
Robert Kaplan 8.8
6/17/2026 8:14:57 PM
dxy
Kaplan's discussion of a patient Fed and sticky inflation suggests no strong directional move for the dollar in the near term.
ndx
Kaplan describes a massive AI CapEx boom that is creating opportunities for Wall Street and driving M&A, which supports the Nasdaq, but he also warns of stickier inflation and consumer divergence, suggesting caution.
rut
Kaplan highlights that the bottom half of households are struggling with lost purchasing power, which would disproportionately affect small-cap, domestic-focused companies in the Russell 2000.
wti
The Strait of Hormuz being open, oil prices going down, that'll definitely help.
| 6/17/2026 6:24:11 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -4.43% | +4.43% |
| 6/16/2026 12:04:49 AM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -2.57% | +3.85% |
| 5/19/2026 3:31:58 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -10.24% | -5.12% |
| 5/18/2026 2:18:22 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -10.36% | -10.36% |
| 5/18/2026 1:45:35 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -10.36% | -10.36% |
| 4/29/2026 1:22:14 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/29/2026 1:16:02 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -6.48% | -6.48% |
| 4/28/2026 5:35:52 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.65% |
| 4/28/2026 4:05:03 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.65% |
| 4/28/2026 2:02:43 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.65% |
| 4/25/2026 1:12:14 AM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +12.75% | +6.38% |
| 4/23/2026 5:28:36 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +13.22% | +6.61% |
| 4/23/2026 5:25:28 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +13.22% | +19.83% |
| 4/9/2026 1:59:49 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -5.47% | -8.20% |
| 4/1/2026 6:40:33 PM | long term up | 60 days later | -17.37% | -17.37% |
| 3/27/2026 9:31:06 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/24/2026 3:04:57 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +1.06% |
| 3/24/2026 8:45:15 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +1.06% |
| 3/20/2026 4:06:06 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +16.74% | +25.10% |
| 3/19/2026 6:22:02 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -0.46% | -0.46% |
| 3/18/2026 10:29:20 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 3/7/2026 3:00:38 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +8.59% | +4.30% |
| 3/7/2026 2:01:06 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +8.59% | +4.30% |
| 3/6/2026 6:25:25 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +8.59% | +12.89% |
| 3/6/2026 3:21:00 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +8.59% | +8.59% |
| 1/30/2026 6:19:23 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +6.71% | -3.36% |
| 1/13/2026 10:26:30 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +1.92% | -1.92% |
| 12/19/2025 7:26:29 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | +2.57% | -2.57% |
| 11/26/2025 10:19:54 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.35% | +2.67% |
| 10/31/2025 3:16:06 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | -3.62% | +3.62% |
| 9/29/2025 2:12:26 PM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.09% | +1.09% |
yields
Kaplan expects Warsh to argue for patience and kick the can, implying no aggressive rate moves in the near term, keeping yields rangebound.
