Limiting Oil Exports Would Be a Mistake, McNally Says

McNally warns export restrictions would backfire, calling them a 'mistake' with 35% probability if gasoline hits $5/gal. Iran blockade is effective, shut-ins expected in 1-2 months. Ceasefire only 20% likely. WTI upward pressure persists.

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Rapidan Energy Group 1.0
Industry Research Firm
Robert McNally 8.0

Limiting Oil Exports Would Be a Mistake, McNally Says

Oil

wti

Iran's strategy is just wait for those higher oil prices to soften up the president. Supply disruption of 15% of global supply ongoing, blockade effective, shut-ins expected in 1-2 months, all point to upward pressure on WTI.

12 calls

+18

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

4/18/2026 12:45:52 AM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+7.54%	-3.77%
4/16/2026 11:57:34 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+13.07%	-6.54%
3/30/2026 7:24:50 PM	short term sharp up	6 days later	+10.88%	+16.32%
3/14/2026 1:31:57 AM	short term sharp up	7 days later	-5.74%	-8.61%
3/14/2026 12:17:40 AM	medium term up	21 days later	+20.22%	+20.22%
2/26/2026 10:22:25 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+43.45%	+65.17%
1/9/2026 10:29:38 PM	long term up	60 days later	+65.90%	+65.90%
1/2/2026 9:58:07 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+3.96%	-1.98%
10/20/2025 10:01:23 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+6.04%	-3.02%
10/20/2025 9:50:44 PM	short term sharp down	6 days later	+6.04%	-9.05%
8/15/2025 10:37:13 PM	short term cautious up	7 days later	+2.18%	+1.09%

Show all 11 wti results

Asks if the 90-day waiver extension for gasoline is helping.

Annmarie
Robert McNally

The waiver helps marginally, but it's a drop in the bucket compared to the largest oil disruption in history (15% of global supply).

California and East Coast get easier gasoline movement from Gulf Coast, but it's only a few pennies.
Asks what else the US can do if prices rise further.

Annmarie
Robert McNally

Bad options include selling oil futures (folly) and export restrictions (counterproductive). 35% probability of export restrictions if gasoline hits $5/gallon.

Biden considered export restrictions in 2022 at $5/gallon. Trump administration currently says not on table, but desperation could change that.
Asks if midterm election year makes export restrictions more likely.

Annmarie
Robert McNally

Marginally yes, but any president would avoid owning record high gasoline prices. Desperate measures could work for weeks but backfire.

Trump likely to lose House, Senate in play would be alarming.
Asks about Strait of Hormuz blockade and if Iranian vessels are getting through.

Annmarie
Robert McNally

Blockade is across many oceans, not just Hormuz. Some boats may cross the line but will be picked up later by other assets.

CENTCOM tracking every boat from Iranian ports, example of one picked up in Bay of Bengal.
Asks when Iranian shut-ins could happen given Kharg Island storage.

Annmarie
Robert McNally

Shut-ins could take 1-2 months due to inland storage capacity. Iran is dug in, waiting for higher oil prices to soften Trump.

Kharg Island filling rapidly, but inland tank farms hard to measure. Iran buying empty vessels for floating storage.
Asks what US response will be if Iran stays dug in.

Annmarie
Robert McNally

Two ways to end: ceasefire permitting free navigation, or military forcible reopening (4 weeks minimum). 20% probability of ceasefire.

President has kill order on fast attack craft and mine layers. Iran still far apart on nukes and other issues.
Asks if ceasefire could happen this weekend given Iranian foreign minister in Islamabad.

Annmarie
Robert McNally

20% probability, can't rule out but sides still far apart.

Iran historically drags feet in negotiations.

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