Dudley warns that Kevin Warsh's shift away from Fed communication is a mistake, creating policy indeterminacy. Despite near-term disinflation from lower oil, persistent price pressures (chips) and a strong labor market mean monetary policy may not be restrictive enough, potentially requiring further tightening.
implicit
implicit
explicit
Metals
USD
semiconductors cautious up
Federal Reserve
9.0
Central Bank
Bill Dudley 8.0
Central Bank
Bill Dudley 8.0
US 10y; Fed funds
6/23/2026 6:33:38 PM
ndx
Dudley warns of persistent price pressures (chip prices rising rapidly) and potential Fed tightening, which would weigh on growth-sensitive tech stocks.
rut
Small caps are sensitive to tighter monetary policy and economic uncertainty; Dudley's hawkish lean suggests headwinds for RUT.
wti
Oil prices and gasoline prices have come down this month. There's going to be disinflation next month.
| 6/16/2026 5:26:07 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.57% | +2.57% |
| 5/22/2026 11:46:36 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -9.57% | +9.57% |
| 5/22/2026 4:30:38 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -9.57% | +14.35% |
| 5/21/2026 7:50:07 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -9.20% | -13.80% |
| 5/21/2026 12:18:28 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -9.20% | -9.20% |
| 5/15/2026 9:33:59 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -15.98% | -7.99% |
| 5/14/2026 6:15:43 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -6.79% | -6.79% |
| 5/12/2026 11:55:09 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +11.34% |
| 5/12/2026 8:03:12 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +11.34% |
| 4/30/2026 1:27:38 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -6.73% | -3.36% |
| 4/29/2026 9:59:50 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/29/2026 8:25:38 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/22/2026 1:15:04 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +4.26% | +6.38% |
| 4/21/2026 10:56:53 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +5.50% |
| 4/21/2026 10:53:54 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +5.50% |
| 4/21/2026 9:02:49 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +3.67% |
| 4/7/2026 4:38:39 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.95% | +4.95% |
| 4/7/2026 4:34:26 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.95% | +4.95% |
| 3/23/2026 3:29:56 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +7.29% | +7.29% |
| 3/23/2026 3:17:02 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +11.40% | +11.40% |
| 3/20/2026 5:36:27 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/20/2026 4:29:36 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/19/2026 12:11:26 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -12.21% |
| 3/18/2026 11:29:30 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -5.91% |
| 3/18/2026 9:30:00 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 3/18/2026 8:57:23 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 3/9/2026 4:35:07 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/6/2026 9:15:32 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +8.59% | +8.59% |
| 3/6/2026 3:21:26 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +8.59% | +12.89% |
| 3/5/2026 5:39:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 3/5/2026 4:38:35 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 9/23/2025 11:29:28 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.37% | -2.37% |
| 9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.45% | +3.45% |
| 8/28/2025 10:35:20 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.06% | +0.06% |
| 8/20/2025 10:17:30 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.43% |
yields
Dudley says monetary policy may not be restrictive enough and the Fed could need to tighten if labor market stays strong, implying upward pressure on yields.
