Real yields are not yet restrictive enough to affect economic decisions. Schwab is favorable on credit risk (IG, HY, preferreds) as spreads are low for a reason—the economy is resilient. Long-term yields may move higher; we could be in a higher regime. Two-year Treasuries at 4.16% offer value; need Fed to hike 50bp to catch up. Fed likely holds steady through year-end, but hike risks have risen.

explicit

implicit
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Charles Schwab 8.0
Asset Manager $890.00B
Collin Martin 8.5
Fixed income strategy and yield curve outlook (with Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney)
6/8/2026 6:04:18 PM
ndx
Martin suggests financial conditions are not tight and the economy is resilient, which is supportive for equities, but higher yields could be a headwind, implying a sideways near-term outlook.
yields
We could be in somewhat of a higher regime. The 10-year might get back to that 5% area.
116 calls
+1
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
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6/1/2026 3:30:31 PM short term cautious up 6 days later +2.18% +1.09%
5/29/2026 7:00:03 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later +0.76% +0.38%
5/28/2026 7:00:37 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -0.04% -0.02%
5/26/2026 4:30:11 PM short term down 5 days later -0.13% +0.13%
5/24/2026 4:30:31 PM medium term up 21 days later -1.95% -1.95%
5/23/2026 1:00:14 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -2.30% -3.46%
5/22/2026 7:01:08 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.30% -1.15%
5/21/2026 7:00:03 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -2.08% -1.04%
5/21/2026 3:30:57 PM short term down 5 days later -1.69% +1.69%
5/20/2026 6:00:24 PM short term up 5 days later -2.03% -2.03%
5/20/2026 4:30:01 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.03% +1.01%
5/20/2026 1:00:35 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -2.03% -3.04%
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5/19/2026 5:39:53 PM medium term down 20 days later -0.96% +0.96%
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5/13/2026 6:00:58 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +4.62% +6.93%
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5/12/2026 6:01:10 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +3.17% +4.75%
5/12/2026 4:00:57 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.58% +0.29%
5/11/2026 7:00:43 PM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
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5/4/2026 7:00:25 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.22% +1.61%
5/1/2026 8:00:31 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +2.52% +1.26%
5/1/2026 5:30:10 PM short term down 7 days later -0.81% +0.81%
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4/22/2026 6:00:26 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.72% -0.36%
4/17/2026 7:00:31 PM medium term up 21 days later +3.76% +3.76%
4/10/2026 7:01:10 PM medium term up 21 days later +3.47% +3.47%
4/8/2026 7:30:12 PM short term down 5 days later -0.86% +0.86%
3/27/2026 10:22:16 PM short term sharp up 7 days later -0.16% -0.24%
3/27/2026 6:00:24 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -0.16% -0.08%
3/26/2026 6:15:02 PM short term up 5 days later -2.73% -2.73%
3/24/2026 3:30:35 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +0.32% +0.16%
3/23/2026 6:00:33 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -2.16% -1.08%
3/20/2026 4:35:56 PM medium term up 21 days later -0.85% -0.85%
3/17/2026 6:01:27 PM short term down 5 days later +1.76% -1.76%
3/16/2026 6:01:06 PM short term up 6 days later +3.14% +3.14%
2/23/2026 7:00:42 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +4.64% +2.32%
2/18/2026 7:00:31 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.26% +1.63%
2/13/2026 4:30:47 PM short term down 7 days later -0.67% +0.67%
2/11/2026 7:35:50 PM short term up 5 days later -1.27% -1.27%
2/11/2026 4:30:22 PM short term up 5 days later -1.27% -1.27%
2/9/2026 7:00:36 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -2.19% +1.10%
1/30/2026 7:01:03 PM short term up 7 days later -1.80% -1.80%
1/23/2026 8:46:35 PM long term cautious up 60 days later +5.39% +2.69%
1/20/2026 7:01:32 PM short term up 5 days later -0.94% -0.94%
1/7/2026 6:30:03 PM long term cautious up 60 days later -1.12% -0.56%
12/31/2025 5:47:14 PM short term up 5 days later -1.17% -1.17%
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12/11/2025 7:30:17 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.03% +0.51%
12/5/2025 8:31:08 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later -1.34% -0.67%
12/1/2025 7:17:24 PM medium term up 20 days later +2.03% +2.03%
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11/14/2025 6:01:14 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -2.30% -1.15%
11/11/2025 1:00:57 AM short term up 5 days later +1.67% +1.67%
11/5/2025 11:14:15 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.66% +0.99%
11/5/2025 6:00:18 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -2.32% -1.16%
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10/27/2025 5:01:01 PM short term up 6 days later +3.09% +3.09%
10/24/2025 8:41:31 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +2.73% -1.36%
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10/16/2025 10:47:56 PM short term down 5 days later -1.35% +1.35%
10/14/2025 6:01:25 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -1.48% -0.74%
10/14/2025 5:34:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.48% +0.74%
9/30/2025 5:42:26 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.36% -0.68%
9/29/2025 6:30:09 PM short term cautious up 6 days later +0.34% +0.17%
9/26/2025 6:27:34 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +0.51% -0.25%
9/22/2025 6:00:19 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.51% -0.25%
9/18/2025 5:45:03 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.22% -0.11%
9/17/2025 6:01:49 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/16/2025 11:52:11 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.64% -0.82%
9/15/2025 10:13:32 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +3.38% -1.69%
9/15/2025 6:00:38 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +2.91% -1.45%
9/12/2025 11:30:07 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +2.70% -1.35%
9/10/2025 11:30:15 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/5/2025 11:30:10 PM short term sharp down 7 days later -0.30% +0.44%
9/3/2025 11:30:04 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.69% +0.35%
9/2/2025 8:01:17 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -3.92% +1.96%
8/29/2025 11:22:31 PM medium term down 20 days later -3.13% +3.13%
8/28/2025 11:34:09 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.91% +1.45%
8/25/2025 11:30:06 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.26% +2.63%
8/25/2025 6:17:17 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +0.45% -0.22%
8/25/2025 6:17:17 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +0.45% -0.22%
8/22/2025 11:30:14 PM short term down 8 days later +0.05% -0.05%
8/21/2025 6:30:30 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.52% -0.26%
8/13/2025 11:30:57 PM short term down 5 days later +0.21% -0.21%
8/8/2025 11:30:04 PM long term cautious down 60 days later -5.20% +2.60%
8/7/2025 11:35:19 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.82% +0.91%
7/30/2025 1:54:24 AM short term up 5 days later -3.76% -3.76%
7/21/2025 11:30:17 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.45% +0.73%
7/16/2025 11:30:00 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.85% -1.42%
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