Emma Courts explains that extreme heat disrupts agricultural production, raising food prices and overall inflation. The 2022 European heatwave raised food prices by 0.7% and overall inflation by 0.3%. The ECB leads on studying 'climate inflation', but central banks globally are grappling with it. The net effect on prices is expected to be upward, though adaptation may blunt some impacts.

explicit

implicit
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Bloomberg 7.0
Financial Media
Emma Courts 3.5
6/27/2026 3:27:45 PM
ndx
Persistent climate-driven inflation could force central banks to maintain or tighten monetary policy, which would pressure growth-sensitive tech stocks (NDX) over the medium term.
yields
Climate inflation is expected to raise prices, and central banks are studying it. The 2022 heatwave raised overall inflation by 0.3%.
208 calls
-1
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
6/16/2026 9:27:49 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.27% +0.13%
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6/12/2026 11:32:25 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -0.40% -0.20%
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6/11/2026 10:44:04 AM short term up 5 days later -0.53% -0.53%
6/10/2026 10:48:17 AM short term up 5 days later -0.78% -0.78%
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6/9/2026 11:22:48 PM short term down 5 days later -1.61% +1.61%
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6/1/2026 5:46:26 PM short term up 6 days later +2.18% +2.18%
6/1/2026 10:39:53 AM medium term up 20 days later -0.09% -0.09%
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5/28/2026 10:34:44 AM short term up 5 days later +0.85% +0.85%
5/26/2026 8:31:32 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.18% -0.59%
5/26/2026 6:57:45 PM medium term up 20 days later -1.18% -1.18%
5/26/2026 6:15:06 PM short term up 5 days later -0.13% -0.13%
5/26/2026 10:05:40 AM short term up 5 days later -0.13% -0.13%
5/25/2026 10:15:34 AM medium term up 20 days later -0.53% -0.53%
5/23/2026 3:12:45 AM medium term up 22 days later -1.95% -1.95%
5/22/2026 11:48:41 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.30% -1.15%
5/22/2026 9:17:41 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -2.30% +3.46%
5/22/2026 4:48:45 PM short term up 5 days later -2.30% -2.30%
5/22/2026 10:35:21 AM medium term up 22 days later -1.95% -1.95%
5/22/2026 10:35:21 AM medium term up 22 days later -1.95% -1.95%
5/21/2026 9:08:20 PM short term up 5 days later -1.69% -1.69%
5/20/2026 12:04:34 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -2.03% -3.04%
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5/19/2026 11:25:08 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.31% -0.46%
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5/19/2026 8:42:26 AM medium term up 20 days later -0.96% -0.96%
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5/18/2026 7:27:09 PM short term up 5 days later -2.34% -2.34%
5/18/2026 4:03:29 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -2.34% +3.50%
5/18/2026 2:18:22 PM short term up 5 days later -2.34% -2.34%
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5/15/2026 4:01:38 PM short term cautious up 6 days later -1.41% -0.70%
5/15/2026 2:16:51 PM short term up 6 days later -1.41% -1.41%
5/15/2026 10:06:02 AM short term up 6 days later -1.41% -1.41%
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5/14/2026 10:22:14 AM medium term up 20 days later -2.57% -2.57%
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5/13/2026 2:30:46 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.67% +0.67%
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5/12/2026 9:34:37 AM short term up 5 days later +3.17% +3.17%
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5/11/2026 3:42:16 PM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/11/2026 3:12:21 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.27% +0.27%
5/11/2026 2:37:40 PM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/11/2026 10:33:48 AM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
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5/8/2026 10:34:17 AM medium term up 21 days later +1.47% +1.47%
5/8/2026 8:52:09 AM short term up 7 days later +4.83% +4.83%
5/7/2026 11:14:07 AM medium term up 20 days later +2.09% +2.09%
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5/5/2026 9:59:09 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.24% +1.86%
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5/1/2026 4:44:32 PM short term up 7 days later -0.81% -0.81%
4/30/2026 2:14:39 PM short term up 5 days later -0.50% -0.50%
4/30/2026 8:02:59 AM short term up 5 days later -0.50% -0.50%
4/22/2026 12:50:22 AM short term up 5 days later +0.72% +0.72%
4/21/2026 4:08:13 PM short term up 5 days later +0.98% +0.98%
4/18/2026 12:01:38 AM short term sharp down 7 days later +2.02% -3.04%
4/17/2026 12:08:37 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later +3.76% +1.88%
4/15/2026 12:05:32 AM short term down 5 days later -0.39% +0.39%
4/14/2026 10:13:21 AM long term up 61 days later +4.37% +4.37%
4/13/2026 7:00:27 PM short term up 6 days later -0.14% -0.14%
4/9/2026 11:01:58 PM short term up 5 days later -0.81% -0.81%
4/3/2026 12:36:51 AM short term down 7 days later -0.88% +0.88%
4/2/2026 4:45:47 PM short term up 5 days later -0.51% -0.51%
4/2/2026 10:09:57 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.51% -0.77%
4/1/2026 11:17:06 AM short term down 5 days later +0.70% -0.70%
4/1/2026 10:17:51 AM short term down 5 days later +0.70% -0.70%
3/31/2026 10:09:41 AM short term up 5 days later +0.37% +0.37%
3/30/2026 2:09:27 PM short term up 6 days later +0.56% +0.56%
3/30/2026 10:29:13 AM short term down 6 days later +0.56% -0.56%
3/30/2026 8:40:46 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.56% -0.28%
3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -0.16% -0.24%
3/27/2026 10:05:53 AM medium term up 21 days later -2.12% -2.12%
3/27/2026 2:00:21 AM short term up 7 days later -0.16% -0.16%
3/25/2026 10:19:55 AM medium term up 20 days later -3.03% -3.03%
3/23/2026 7:21:12 AM short term up 6 days later -1.14% -1.14%
3/20/2026 2:30:40 AM short term up 7 days later +0.18% +0.18%
3/13/2026 9:58:26 PM short term up 7 days later +2.70% +2.70%
3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM short term down 7 days later +2.70% -2.70%
3/13/2026 4:40:53 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later +2.73% -1.36%
3/13/2026 9:59:21 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +2.70% +4.05%
3/13/2026 6:44:24 AM short term up 7 days later +2.70% +2.70%
3/11/2026 10:02:21 AM short term down 5 days later -1.66% +1.66%
3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM short term up 6 days later +2.03% +2.03%
3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM short term up 6 days later +2.03% +2.03%
3/6/2026 3:54:59 PM short term down 5 days later +3.68% -3.68%
3/6/2026 10:25:51 AM short term up 5 days later +3.68% +3.68%
3/3/2026 9:47:37 PM short term up 5 days later +1.37% +1.37%
3/3/2026 10:53:30 AM short term up 5 days later +1.37% +1.37%
2/28/2026 1:02:34 AM medium term sharp down 21 days later +7.07% -10.60%
2/20/2026 5:23:54 PM short term up 7 days later +0.47% +0.47%
2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM short term up 5 days later -0.93% -0.93%
2/19/2026 2:30:40 PM short term up 5 days later -0.93% -0.93%
2/19/2026 8:04:55 AM medium term up 20 days later +4.58% +4.58%
2/18/2026 11:17:07 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.26% +1.63%
2/18/2026 9:44:49 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.26% +1.63%
2/13/2026 9:18:42 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -0.67% -0.33%
2/6/2026 11:41:39 PM short term up 7 days later -3.38% -3.38%
2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM medium term up 20 days later -5.73% -5.73%
1/30/2026 10:19:09 AM short term up 7 days later -1.80% -1.80%
1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM short term up 5 days later +1.11% +1.11%
1/21/2026 3:54:53 PM long term up 60 days later +2.00% +2.00%
1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM short term up 5 days later -0.94% -0.94%
1/20/2026 3:56:13 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later -2.49% -3.74%
1/20/2026 5:25:20 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.94% -1.41%
1/12/2026 3:24:56 PM short term up 6 days later +1.44% +1.44%
1/12/2026 2:06:59 PM short term up 6 days later +1.44% +1.44%
1/12/2026 2:06:59 PM short term cautious up 6 days later +1.44% +0.72%
12/24/2025 2:57:09 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.58% +0.29%
12/19/2025 10:45:28 AM medium term up 21 days later +0.43% +0.43%
12/19/2025 8:37:44 AM medium term up 21 days later +0.43% +0.43%
12/18/2025 11:18:27 PM short term down 5 days later -0.36% +0.36%
12/18/2025 1:08:16 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.77% +0.77%
12/17/2025 7:04:39 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.53% +0.27%
12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM short term down 5 days later +0.43% -0.43%
12/11/2025 10:26:28 AM short term down 5 days later -1.03% +1.03%
12/11/2025 10:09:14 AM short term up 5 days later -1.03% -1.03%
12/9/2025 10:44:30 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.43% +0.65%
12/9/2025 6:08:48 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -0.82% -1.22%
12/8/2025 7:49:51 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.67% -0.84%
12/4/2025 5:57:16 AM short term down 5 days later +0.60% -0.60%
12/1/2025 5:28:31 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +2.10% -1.05%
11/28/2025 12:53:14 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +1.86% +0.93%
11/12/2025 2:18:30 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.27% -0.13%
11/12/2025 10:01:21 AM short term sharp down 5 days later +0.27% -0.40%
11/12/2025 7:56:58 AM short term sharp down 5 days later +0.27% -0.40%
11/11/2025 3:01:41 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.67% -0.84%
11/6/2025 2:13:19 PM short term down 5 days later -0.68% +0.68%
11/4/2025 12:00:38 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -1.13% -0.57%
10/21/2025 10:46:09 AM medium term up 20 days later +4.22% +4.22%
10/17/2025 10:27:37 AM short term down 5 days later -0.25% +0.25%
10/8/2025 9:34:41 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -3.04% +1.52%
10/2/2025 3:40:39 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.24% -0.12%
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10/1/2025 10:52:02 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.95% -0.48%
9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM short term down 5 days later +1.36% -1.36%
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9/12/2025 7:15:05 AM short term down 7 days later +2.70% -2.70%
9/10/2025 8:24:03 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
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8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.13% +1.57%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -3.13% -4.70%
8/28/2025 1:17:57 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.38% -0.19%
8/28/2025 7:11:09 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -2.91% -4.36%
8/27/2025 10:15:27 AM short term cautious up 5 days later +1.66% +0.83%
8/27/2025 6:53:39 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later -3.11% -1.56%
8/26/2025 7:44:57 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/25/2025 12:19:20 PM short term down 7 days later +0.45% -0.45%
8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.66% +0.83%
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8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.17% +2.58%
8/15/2025 10:20:21 AM short term cautious up 7 days later -1.52% -0.76%
8/5/2025 10:44:07 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.26% -0.63%
8/4/2025 10:45:50 AM short term sharp down 6 days later +1.84% -2.75%
7/22/2025 6:22:47 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.73% -0.36%
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