St. Louis Fed President Musalem sees the balance of risks shifted towards inflation, making a rate hike possible if disinflation stalls. He views AI as currently a demand-side pressure on inflation, not a supply-side relief, and warns against relying on productivity gains to ease price pressures. He expects new Fed Chair Walsh to ask deep questions about operations and communications.

explicit

implicit

implicit

inferred

implicit
Federal Reserve 9.0
Central Bank
Alberto Musalem 8.5
Fed's Musalem on Possible Rate Hike, Balance Sheet and Warsh
5/28/2026 9:19:50 PM
dxy
Musalem's hawkish tilt (risk of rate hikes, higher neutral rate) and the resilience of the US economy relative to others would likely support the US dollar.
metals
No direct mention of metals. The overall macro picture of sticky inflation and potential rate hikes is generally neutral to negative for metals, which are sensitive to real rates and USD.
ndx
Musalem sees AI as a demand-side pressure on inflation in the short run, not a supply-side boost. This suggests no immediate positive catalyst for tech/growth stocks from lower rates or productivity gains, implying a neutral to cautious view on NDX in the near term.
rut
Musalem highlights challenged real incomes and corporate margins as a scenario that could weaken the economy. Small caps (RUT) are more sensitive to domestic economic weakness and higher rates, suggesting a cautious outlook.
wti
Musalem mentions oil prices as a risk on the supply side that could affect inflation and the policy outlook. The scenario where inflation remains high partly due to supply-side pressures (including oil) is a key risk, implying upward pressure on WTI.
yields
Forward real interest rates one and two years out have come up meaningfully. About three-quarters of the bond market move was an increase in the expected neutral policy rate.
5/6/2026 9:31:19 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +1.62% +0.81%
4/29/2026 9:59:50 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +0.59% +0.30%
4/21/2026 9:02:49 PM short term up 5 days later +0.98% +0.98%
4/1/2026 10:00:00 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.44% +0.22%
3/30/2026 9:16:07 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.41% +0.71%
3/18/2026 11:29:30 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.23% +0.12%
3/18/2026 8:57:23 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.23% -0.12%
3/5/2026 10:19:45 AM medium term down 20 days later +6.85% -6.85%
2/24/2026 5:28:52 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +3.80% -1.90%
1/31/2026 1:39:54 AM short term cautious down 7 days later -1.80% +0.90%
1/30/2026 4:06:49 PM short term up 7 days later -1.80% -1.80%
1/21/2026 10:03:18 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.81% -0.91%
1/8/2026 11:18:05 PM medium term down 20 days later +1.34% -1.34%
1/8/2026 5:00:02 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +1.34% -0.67%
12/23/2025 1:43:04 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.85% -0.42%
12/22/2025 6:49:39 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -1.27% +0.64%
12/19/2025 4:38:22 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later +0.43% -0.22%
12/17/2025 4:02:54 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.53% -0.27%
12/12/2025 11:35:37 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -0.41% +0.20%
12/11/2025 8:07:07 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -0.17% +0.08%
12/10/2025 11:45:00 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.19% -0.10%
12/10/2025 10:06:22 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.19% -0.10%
12/10/2025 9:59:59 PM short term down 5 days later +0.19% -0.19%
12/10/2025 9:58:25 PM short term down 5 days later +0.19% -0.19%
12/8/2025 4:22:22 PM short term down 6 days later -0.10% +0.10%
11/25/2025 1:10:38 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.45% -1.23%
11/25/2025 10:11:27 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.45% -1.23%
11/21/2025 4:18:30 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later +3.57% -1.78%
11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM short term down 5 days later -2.30% +2.30%
11/10/2025 7:15:17 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.58% +0.29%
11/10/2025 5:17:27 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.58% +0.29%
11/7/2025 10:50:35 PM medium term down 21 days later -0.34% +0.34%
11/4/2025 2:28:09 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.13% +0.57%
11/4/2025 2:28:09 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.13% +0.57%
11/3/2025 9:06:33 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.25% -0.62%
11/3/2025 7:15:45 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.51% -0.26%
11/3/2025 5:15:56 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.25% -0.62%
11/3/2025 3:04:15 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.25% +0.62%
10/30/2025 5:30:59 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.12% -0.06%
10/30/2025 1:30:10 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.37% -0.68%
10/30/2025 1:00:07 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.37% -0.68%
10/29/2025 11:38:10 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 10:44:00 PM short term down 5 days later -0.10% +0.10%
10/29/2025 10:11:32 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 10:00:33 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.98% -0.49%
10/29/2025 9:40:37 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.98% -0.49%
10/29/2025 9:34:46 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 9:30:01 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 9:19:58 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.98% +0.49%
10/29/2025 9:15:22 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.98% -0.49%
10/29/2025 9:15:00 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.98% +0.49%
10/29/2025 9:08:09 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.10% -0.05%
10/29/2025 9:05:01 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.98% -0.49%
10/29/2025 9:02:24 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 8:57:22 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/16/2025 6:04:41 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.35% +0.67%
10/16/2025 4:52:44 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +2.15% -1.07%
10/16/2025 4:01:47 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +2.15% -1.07%
10/15/2025 9:05:27 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +4.55% -2.28%
10/15/2025 8:00:24 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +4.55% -2.28%
10/15/2025 5:49:02 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.33% +0.16%
10/15/2025 1:03:55 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -0.33% +0.49%
10/15/2025 12:59:00 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -0.33% +0.49%
10/14/2025 11:49:39 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.06% +0.53%
10/14/2025 10:05:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.48% +0.74%
10/14/2025 9:31:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +1.06% -0.53%
10/14/2025 9:15:03 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.06% +0.53%
10/14/2025 7:56:12 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.06% +0.53%
10/3/2025 6:45:12 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later -3.96% -1.98%
10/3/2025 5:48:20 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -3.96% +1.98%
10/3/2025 5:24:31 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -3.96% +1.98%
9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.36% -0.68%
9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.36% -0.68%
9/25/2025 9:08:46 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.04% +2.52%
9/25/2025 6:06:52 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.04% +2.52%
9/25/2025 4:23:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.04% +2.52%
9/25/2025 2:39:06 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.93% +0.97%
9/23/2025 8:17:55 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.14% +0.07%
9/23/2025 4:45:06 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.14% +0.07%
9/22/2025 10:12:27 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.51% -0.25%
9/22/2025 7:01:00 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.51% -0.25%
9/19/2025 7:19:43 PM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.05% +0.02%
9/19/2025 3:30:59 PM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.05% +0.02%
9/18/2025 2:13:16 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.19% -0.10%
9/18/2025 2:00:01 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.22% -0.11%
9/17/2025 11:14:58 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.61% +0.30%
9/17/2025 10:48:21 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:45:01 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:16:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:12:22 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.61% -0.30%
9/17/2025 10:09:39 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:03:46 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:00:17 PM short term down 5 days later +0.39% -0.39%
9/16/2025 3:38:44 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.64% -0.82%
9/16/2025 3:30:44 PM short term down 5 days later +1.64% -1.64%
9/15/2025 4:08:28 PM short term down 6 days later +2.91% -2.91%
9/12/2025 2:49:43 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +2.70% -1.35%
9/10/2025 2:40:48 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/4/2025 5:58:21 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +2.10% +1.05%
9/3/2025 5:47:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.69% +0.35%
9/3/2025 5:46:57 PM medium term sharp down 20 days later -0.69% +1.04%
9/3/2025 4:33:59 PM short term down 5 days later -2.44% +2.44%
9/3/2025 4:33:52 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.44% +1.22%
8/29/2025 4:29:23 PM short term cautious up 6 days later -5.40% -2.70%
8/29/2025 2:20:50 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 2:11:04 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 10:48:16 AM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 10:10:30 AM short term down 6 days later -5.40% +5.40%
8/29/2025 2:27:21 AM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/27/2025 5:54:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.11% +1.56%
8/27/2025 4:26:23 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.11% +1.56%
8/26/2025 6:50:08 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -5.00% -2.50%
8/26/2025 8:42:05 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/25/2025 5:57:59 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.26% +2.63%
8/25/2025 8:38:14 AM short term cautious down 7 days later +0.45% -0.22%
8/22/2025 11:32:42 PM short term down 8 days later +0.05% -0.05%
8/22/2025 8:13:21 PM short term cautious down 8 days later +0.05% -0.02%
8/20/2025 4:24:10 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -1.66% -0.83%
8/14/2025 11:48:29 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.74% +0.37%
8/12/2025 11:45:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/12/2025 11:24:12 PM medium term sharp down 20 days later +0.92% -1.38%
8/12/2025 4:25:35 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/12/2025 7:46:47 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.43% -1.22%
8/7/2025 6:16:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.10% +0.55%
8/7/2025 5:34:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.82% +0.91%
8/5/2025 12:45:01 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.90% -0.45%
7/30/2025 11:06:39 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.47% -0.73%
7/30/2025 9:54:37 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.47% -0.73%
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