The yen's slide to 162+ reflects a lack of intervention from Japanese authorities, encouraging further weakness. The AI boom is driving a narrow but powerful equity rally in semiconductors and tech, but risks include a potential hyperscaler spending pullback. The weak yen benefits exporters but pressures JGBs and households.

explicit

implicit
RUT
Oil
Metals

implicit
Bloomberg 7.0
Financial Media
Mark Cranfield 7.0
7/1/2026 7:33:09 AM
dxy
Cranfield notes U.S. yields rose again, encouraging dollar buying, and that the yen's weakness is partly driven by dollar strength.
ndx
Cranfield is bullish on AI-driven chipmaker spending in the near term but warns of a future tipping point when hyperscalers dial back, implying caution.
yields
U.S. yields are relatively high and they rose again last night, so that's obviously encouraging people to buy the U.S. dollar.
220 calls
-1
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
6/23/2026 9:47:02 AM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.64% -0.32%
6/23/2026 7:57:58 AM short term up 5 days later -0.64% -0.64%
6/22/2026 11:26:07 PM short term up 6 days later -2.65% -2.65%
6/22/2026 5:49:18 PM short term down 6 days later -2.65% +2.65%
6/22/2026 8:49:26 AM short term up 6 days later -2.65% -2.65%
6/22/2026 7:23:20 AM short term up 6 days later -2.65% -2.65%
6/19/2026 4:10:55 PM short term up 7 days later -2.99% -2.99%
6/18/2026 8:17:50 PM short term up 5 days later -1.10% -1.10%
6/18/2026 2:25:09 PM short term up 5 days later -1.10% -1.10%
6/18/2026 10:05:22 AM short term up 5 days later -1.10% -1.10%
6/18/2026 12:37:57 AM short term up 5 days later -1.10% -1.10%
6/16/2026 9:27:49 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.03% -0.52%
6/16/2026 2:20:00 PM short term down 5 days later +1.03% -1.03%
6/15/2026 10:13:45 PM short term up 6 days later +1.83% +1.83%
6/15/2026 8:40:10 PM short term down 6 days later +1.83% -1.83%
6/15/2026 2:19:28 PM short term cautious up 6 days later +1.83% +0.91%
6/15/2026 9:57:41 AM short term down 6 days later +1.83% -1.83%
6/15/2026 6:06:57 AM short term down 6 days later +1.83% -1.83%
6/12/2026 11:32:25 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +0.90% +0.45%
6/12/2026 11:26:03 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +0.90% +0.45%
6/11/2026 10:44:04 AM short term up 5 days later -0.53% -0.53%
6/10/2026 10:48:17 AM short term up 5 days later -0.78% -0.78%
6/10/2026 10:15:09 AM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.78% -0.39%
6/9/2026 11:22:48 PM short term down 5 days later -1.61% +1.61%
6/9/2026 6:11:16 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -1.61% -0.80%
6/9/2026 5:45:24 PM short term up 5 days later -1.61% -1.61%
6/9/2026 9:54:49 AM short term up 5 days later -1.61% -1.61%
6/9/2026 12:30:31 AM short term up 5 days later -1.61% -1.61%
6/8/2026 9:51:40 AM short term up 6 days later -1.30% -1.30%
6/6/2026 12:20:35 AM short term up 7 days later -1.82% -1.82%
6/5/2026 8:54:13 PM short term up 7 days later -1.82% -1.82%
6/5/2026 4:23:51 PM short term up 7 days later -1.82% -1.82%
6/5/2026 4:12:24 PM short term up 7 days later -1.82% -1.82%
6/5/2026 2:32:35 PM medium term up 21 days later -3.91% -3.91%
6/3/2026 11:19:38 PM short term up 5 days later +1.14% +1.14%
6/3/2026 2:30:02 PM short term up 5 days later +1.14% +1.14%
6/3/2026 8:32:54 AM short term cautious up 5 days later +1.14% +0.57%
6/2/2026 12:01:38 AM short term up 5 days later +1.36% +1.36%
6/1/2026 5:46:26 PM short term up 6 days later +2.18% +2.18%
6/1/2026 10:39:53 AM medium term up 20 days later +1.21% +1.21%
5/31/2026 4:41:52 PM short term up 7 days later +1.72% +1.72%
5/30/2026 3:00:04 PM medium term up 21 days later +0.76% +0.76%
5/30/2026 2:06:01 AM short term up 7 days later +1.72% +1.72%
5/29/2026 6:56:30 PM medium term up 21 days later +0.76% +0.76%
5/29/2026 6:24:16 AM short term up 7 days later +1.72% +1.72%
5/28/2026 10:34:44 AM short term up 5 days later +0.85% +0.85%
5/26/2026 8:31:32 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.18% -0.59%
5/26/2026 6:57:45 PM medium term up 20 days later -1.18% -1.18%
5/26/2026 6:15:06 PM short term up 5 days later -0.13% -0.13%
5/26/2026 10:05:40 AM short term up 5 days later -0.13% -0.13%
5/25/2026 10:15:34 AM medium term up 20 days later -0.53% -0.53%
5/23/2026 3:12:45 AM medium term up 22 days later -1.95% -1.95%
5/22/2026 11:48:41 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.30% -1.15%
5/22/2026 9:17:41 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -2.30% +3.46%
5/22/2026 4:48:45 PM short term up 5 days later -2.30% -2.30%
5/22/2026 10:35:21 AM medium term up 22 days later -1.95% -1.95%
5/22/2026 10:35:21 AM medium term up 22 days later -1.95% -1.95%
5/21/2026 9:08:20 PM short term up 5 days later -1.69% -1.69%
5/20/2026 12:04:34 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -2.03% -3.04%
5/20/2026 10:29:52 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -2.03% -3.04%
5/20/2026 9:05:17 AM short term up 5 days later -2.03% -2.03%
5/19/2026 11:25:08 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.31% -0.46%
5/19/2026 8:14:25 PM short term up 5 days later -0.31% -0.31%
5/19/2026 5:57:57 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.31% -0.46%
5/19/2026 10:44:11 AM short term up 5 days later -0.31% -0.31%
5/19/2026 10:44:11 AM short term up 5 days later -0.31% -0.31%
5/19/2026 10:30:32 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.31% -0.46%
5/19/2026 8:42:26 AM medium term up 20 days later -0.96% -0.96%
5/19/2026 8:29:51 AM short term up 5 days later -0.31% -0.31%
5/18/2026 7:27:09 PM short term up 5 days later -2.34% -2.34%
5/18/2026 4:03:29 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -2.34% +3.50%
5/18/2026 2:18:22 PM short term up 5 days later -2.34% -2.34%
5/18/2026 11:32:06 AM medium term up 20 days later -2.46% -2.46%
5/18/2026 11:24:21 AM short term up 5 days later -2.34% -2.34%
5/18/2026 11:10:00 AM short term up 5 days later -2.34% -2.34%
5/18/2026 8:51:01 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -2.34% -3.50%
5/18/2026 8:47:22 AM short term up 5 days later -2.34% -2.34%
5/18/2026 8:47:22 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -2.34% -3.50%
5/18/2026 8:47:22 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -2.34% -3.50%
5/16/2026 12:12:07 AM short term sharp up 6 days later -1.41% -2.11%
5/15/2026 11:52:13 PM short term sharp down 6 days later -1.41% +2.11%
5/15/2026 6:52:37 PM short term sharp up 6 days later -1.41% -2.11%
5/15/2026 5:30:11 PM short term up 6 days later -1.41% -1.41%
5/15/2026 4:01:38 PM short term cautious up 6 days later -1.41% -0.70%
5/15/2026 2:16:51 PM short term up 6 days later -1.41% -1.41%
5/15/2026 10:06:02 AM short term up 6 days later -1.41% -1.41%
5/15/2026 8:54:12 AM short term sharp up 6 days later -1.41% -2.11%
5/15/2026 7:54:32 AM short term up 6 days later -1.41% -1.41%
5/14/2026 10:22:14 AM medium term up 20 days later -2.57% -2.57%
5/14/2026 8:48:58 AM short term up 5 days later -0.50% -0.50%
5/13/2026 2:30:46 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.67% +0.67%
5/13/2026 2:30:46 PM short term up 5 days later +4.62% +4.62%
5/13/2026 10:40:42 AM medium term up 20 days later +0.67% +0.67%
5/13/2026 7:39:00 AM short term up 5 days later +4.62% +4.62%
5/12/2026 9:34:37 AM short term up 5 days later +3.17% +3.17%
5/12/2026 2:49:50 AM short term up 5 days later +3.17% +3.17%
5/11/2026 3:42:16 PM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/11/2026 3:12:21 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.27% +0.27%
5/11/2026 2:37:40 PM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/11/2026 10:33:48 AM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/11/2026 10:21:17 AM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/8/2026 10:34:17 AM medium term up 21 days later +1.47% +1.47%
5/8/2026 8:52:09 AM short term up 7 days later +4.83% +4.83%
5/7/2026 11:14:07 AM medium term up 20 days later +2.09% +2.09%
5/5/2026 10:43:29 AM short term up 5 days later +1.24% +1.24%
5/5/2026 9:59:09 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.24% +1.86%
5/5/2026 6:19:06 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.24% +1.86%
5/1/2026 4:44:32 PM short term up 7 days later -0.81% -0.81%
4/30/2026 2:14:39 PM short term up 5 days later -0.50% -0.50%
4/30/2026 8:02:59 AM short term up 5 days later -0.50% -0.50%
4/22/2026 12:50:22 AM short term up 5 days later +0.72% +0.72%
4/21/2026 4:08:13 PM short term up 5 days later +0.98% +0.98%
4/18/2026 12:01:38 AM short term sharp down 7 days later +2.02% -3.04%
4/17/2026 12:08:37 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later +3.76% +1.88%
4/15/2026 12:05:32 AM short term down 5 days later -0.39% +0.39%
4/14/2026 10:13:21 AM long term up 61 days later +4.37% +4.37%
4/13/2026 7:00:27 PM short term up 6 days later -0.14% -0.14%
4/9/2026 11:01:58 PM short term up 5 days later -0.81% -0.81%
4/3/2026 12:36:51 AM short term down 7 days later -0.88% +0.88%
4/2/2026 4:45:47 PM short term up 5 days later -0.51% -0.51%
4/2/2026 10:09:57 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.51% -0.77%
4/1/2026 11:17:06 AM short term down 5 days later +0.70% -0.70%
4/1/2026 10:17:51 AM short term down 5 days later +0.70% -0.70%
3/31/2026 10:09:41 AM short term up 5 days later +0.37% +0.37%
3/30/2026 2:09:27 PM short term up 6 days later +0.56% +0.56%
3/30/2026 10:29:13 AM short term down 6 days later +0.56% -0.56%
3/30/2026 8:40:46 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.56% -0.28%
3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -0.16% -0.24%
3/27/2026 10:05:53 AM medium term up 21 days later -2.12% -2.12%
3/27/2026 2:00:21 AM short term up 7 days later -0.16% -0.16%
3/25/2026 10:19:55 AM medium term up 20 days later -3.03% -3.03%
3/23/2026 7:21:12 AM short term up 6 days later -1.14% -1.14%
3/20/2026 2:30:40 AM short term up 7 days later +0.18% +0.18%
3/13/2026 9:58:26 PM short term up 7 days later +2.70% +2.70%
3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM short term down 7 days later +2.70% -2.70%
3/13/2026 4:40:53 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later +2.73% -1.36%
3/13/2026 9:59:21 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +2.70% +4.05%
3/13/2026 6:44:24 AM short term up 7 days later +2.70% +2.70%
3/11/2026 10:02:21 AM short term down 5 days later -1.66% +1.66%
3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM short term up 6 days later +2.03% +2.03%
3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM short term up 6 days later +2.03% +2.03%
3/6/2026 3:54:59 PM short term down 5 days later +3.68% -3.68%
3/6/2026 10:25:51 AM short term up 5 days later +3.68% +3.68%
3/3/2026 9:47:37 PM short term up 5 days later +1.37% +1.37%
3/3/2026 10:53:30 AM short term up 5 days later +1.37% +1.37%
2/28/2026 1:02:34 AM medium term sharp down 21 days later +7.07% -10.60%
2/20/2026 5:23:54 PM short term up 7 days later +0.47% +0.47%
2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM short term up 5 days later -0.93% -0.93%
2/19/2026 2:30:40 PM short term up 5 days later -0.93% -0.93%
2/19/2026 8:04:55 AM medium term up 20 days later +4.58% +4.58%
2/18/2026 11:17:07 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.26% +1.63%
2/18/2026 9:44:49 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.26% +1.63%
2/13/2026 9:18:42 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -0.67% -0.33%
2/6/2026 11:41:39 PM short term up 7 days later -3.38% -3.38%
2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM medium term up 20 days later -5.73% -5.73%
1/30/2026 10:19:09 AM short term up 7 days later -1.80% -1.80%
1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM short term up 5 days later +1.11% +1.11%
1/21/2026 3:54:53 PM long term up 60 days later +2.00% +2.00%
1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM short term up 5 days later -0.94% -0.94%
1/20/2026 3:56:13 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later -2.49% -3.74%
1/20/2026 5:25:20 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.94% -1.41%
1/12/2026 3:24:56 PM short term up 6 days later +1.44% +1.44%
1/12/2026 2:06:59 PM short term up 6 days later +1.44% +1.44%
1/12/2026 2:06:59 PM short term cautious up 6 days later +1.44% +0.72%
12/24/2025 2:57:09 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.58% +0.29%
12/19/2025 10:45:28 AM medium term up 21 days later +0.43% +0.43%
12/19/2025 8:37:44 AM medium term up 21 days later +0.43% +0.43%
12/18/2025 11:18:27 PM short term down 5 days later -0.36% +0.36%
12/18/2025 1:08:16 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.77% +0.77%
12/17/2025 7:04:39 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.53% +0.27%
12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM short term down 5 days later +0.43% -0.43%
12/11/2025 10:26:28 AM short term down 5 days later -1.03% +1.03%
12/11/2025 10:09:14 AM short term up 5 days later -1.03% -1.03%
12/9/2025 10:44:30 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.43% +0.65%
12/9/2025 6:08:48 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -0.82% -1.22%
12/8/2025 7:49:51 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.67% -0.84%
12/4/2025 5:57:16 AM short term down 5 days later +0.60% -0.60%
12/1/2025 5:28:31 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +2.10% -1.05%
11/28/2025 12:53:14 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +1.86% +0.93%
11/12/2025 2:18:30 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.27% -0.13%
11/12/2025 10:01:21 AM short term sharp down 5 days later +0.27% -0.40%
11/12/2025 7:56:58 AM short term sharp down 5 days later +0.27% -0.40%
11/11/2025 3:01:41 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.67% -0.84%
11/6/2025 2:13:19 PM short term down 5 days later -0.68% +0.68%
11/4/2025 12:00:38 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -1.13% -0.57%
10/21/2025 10:46:09 AM medium term up 20 days later +4.22% +4.22%
10/17/2025 10:27:37 AM short term down 5 days later -0.25% +0.25%
10/8/2025 9:34:41 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -3.04% +1.52%
10/2/2025 3:40:39 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.24% -0.12%
10/2/2025 12:44:17 AM short term down 5 days later +0.24% -0.24%
10/1/2025 10:52:02 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.95% -0.48%
9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM short term down 5 days later +1.36% -1.36%
9/26/2025 2:08:35 PM medium term up 20 days later -3.24% -3.24%
9/26/2025 7:55:36 AM short term cautious up 7 days later +0.51% +0.25%
9/26/2025 1:25:54 AM short term cautious up 7 days later +0.51% +0.25%
9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM short term up 7 days later -0.05% -0.05%
9/19/2025 9:19:21 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later -2.22% -1.11%
9/17/2025 10:11:21 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/12/2025 7:15:05 AM short term down 7 days later +2.70% -2.70%
9/10/2025 8:24:03 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM short term down 7 days later -0.30% +0.30%
9/5/2025 8:47:44 AM short term down 7 days later -0.30% +0.30%
9/5/2025 8:47:44 AM short term down 7 days later -0.30% +0.30%
9/5/2025 7:27:44 AM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.30% +0.15%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.13% +1.57%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -3.13% -4.70%
8/28/2025 1:17:57 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.38% -0.19%
8/28/2025 7:11:09 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -2.91% -4.36%
8/27/2025 10:15:27 AM short term cautious up 5 days later +1.66% +0.83%
8/27/2025 6:53:39 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later -3.11% -1.56%
8/26/2025 7:44:57 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/25/2025 12:19:20 PM short term down 7 days later +0.45% -0.45%
8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.66% +0.83%
8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.49% +0.24%
8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.49% +0.24%
8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.17% +2.58%
8/15/2025 10:20:21 AM short term cautious up 7 days later -1.52% -0.76%
8/5/2025 10:44:07 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.26% -0.63%
8/4/2025 10:45:50 AM short term sharp down 6 days later +1.84% -2.75%
7/22/2025 6:22:47 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.73% -0.36%
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