Oil Market Outlook Post-Iran Deal (with Kailey Leinz)

Bob McNally expects the Strait of Hormuz to be safe for transit by end of month. While the deal is good news, it will take months for meaningful oil volumes to return. Meanwhile, global inventories are at multi-year lows and will be drawn down further. Pent-up demand from Asia and strategic reserve refilling could outpace supply, leading to another price spike, potentially pushing Brent above $100 in July/August.

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Rapidan Energy Group 1.0
Industry Research Firm
Bob McNally 9.0

Oil Market Outlook Post-Iran Deal (with Kailey Leinz)

wti

We think Brent can still make another pass above $100 a barrel in July and August.

12 calls

+18

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

4/24/2026 4:21:50 PM	short term cautious up	7 days later	+10.43%	+5.21%
4/18/2026 12:45:52 AM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+7.54%	-3.77%
4/16/2026 11:57:34 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+13.07%	-6.54%
3/30/2026 7:24:50 PM	short term sharp up	6 days later	+10.88%	+16.32%
3/14/2026 1:31:57 AM	short term sharp up	7 days later	-5.74%	-8.61%
3/14/2026 12:17:40 AM	medium term up	21 days later	+20.22%	+20.22%
2/26/2026 10:22:25 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+43.45%	+65.17%
1/9/2026 10:29:38 PM	long term up	60 days later	+65.90%	+65.90%
1/2/2026 9:58:07 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+3.96%	-1.98%
10/20/2025 10:01:23 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+6.04%	-3.02%
10/20/2025 9:50:44 PM	short term sharp down	6 days later	+6.04%	-9.05%
8/15/2025 10:37:13 PM	short term cautious up	7 days later	+2.18%	+1.09%

Show all 12 wti results

Asks Bob McNally to set realistic expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, noting that even if declared open, commercial vessels need to deem it safe.

Kailey Leinz
Bob McNally

Rapidan's base case is it will take through the end of the month for the strait to be safe and clear for boats. The agreement needs to be signed, insurance put in place, and channels cleared of mines. The market is pricing in the good news. A trickle will become a stream if the MOU sticks.

The White House and DOD have arranged for more boats than expected, well over 20, to start moving.
Asks if we are getting back to the same barrels-per-day volume as before the conflict, or if this is a fundamental restructuring.

Kailey Leinz
Bob McNally

We won't know for many months. First, the 47 crude tankers, 71 product tankers, and 153 LNG carriers must leave, then empty ones must fill storage. We need to see if Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE can restart fields and assess damage to production capacity, especially in Iraq. Some producers like UAE may try to go higher.

Great mysteries and uncertainty remain.
Asks if the returning volume will just meet daily demand or also contribute to rebuilding stockpiles.

Kailey Leinz
Bob McNally

If we get back to 15-20 million barrels a day, demand will be even higher than before. China and every country in Asia will want to build bigger strategic reserves. Asia has been on a crash diet since late February and has pent-up demand. This demand could outpace the return of Gulf supply. We are getting close to a bottom in prices, and there is a lot of reason for prices to go up.

The US is at 11-year seasonal lows in gasoline, 29-year lows in distillate, and 43-year lows in the SPR. We will dig deeper into inventories.
Asks how much further prices could go up, given they didn't peak as high as expected during the closure.

Kailey Leinz
Bob McNally

Assuming Hormuz reopens in July, Brent can make another pass above $100 a barrel in July and August due to deep stock draws and high summer demand. If Hormuz is disrupted longer, oil prices would have to do severe damage to the economy to balance, reaching mid-to-high $100s.

World demand goes up by 1.5 million barrels a day in summer, and US exports are at record levels.
Asks if OPEC+ will have the capacity to dial up supply given the drawdown in inventories and infrastructure damage.

Kailey Leinz
Bob McNally

If Hormuz opens, it liberates most spare production capacity held by Saudi Arabia and UAE. Saudi Arabia can resume its OPEC+ leadership role. They may find demand so strong that they can increase production close to total capacity, leading to low spare capacity and still rising prices.

A huge uncertainty is what role Iran will have in deciding what goes through Hormuz and at what price.

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