Jim Bianco argues oil prices are suppressed by Chinese demand destruction and alternate shipping routes, but low global inventories create a dangerous cocktail for a sharp spike if assumptions about free flow are wrong. He sees inflation (CPI ~4.2%, core ~3.4%) as too high for Fed cuts, with hikes more likely. He warns of bond vigilantes triggering a sudden crisis due to large deficits, and notes the market is bifurcated between AI and non-AI stocks. He recommends realistic 5-6% portfolio returns.
explicit
explicit
implicit
Metals
implicit
AI stocks (mega-cap concentration) volatile
Bianco Research
8.5
Investment Research Firm
Jim Bianco 7.5
Investment Research Firm
Jim Bianco 7.5
WTI; $SPY; US 10y
6/29/2026 7:34:16 PM
dxy
Higher interest rates (Fed hiking) typically strengthen the dollar. Bianco's hawkish Fed view implies USD strength.
ndx
AI stocks are very volatile. They peaked at 49% of S&P market cap and have been underperforming recently.
| 5/28/2026 12:51:31 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.60% | +0.60% |
| 12/8/2025 11:42:33 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -0.56% | -0.56% |
| 10/21/2025 9:30:34 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.79% | +3.79% |
| 10/14/2025 3:53:14 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.60% | +1.60% |
| 8/14/2025 2:49:30 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.33% | +0.17% |
rut
The small cap index (RUT) hit an all-time high this week. Non-AI stocks are having a decent week.
| 6/18/2026 3:07:21 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.23% | -0.12% |
wti
Bianco says restocking demand will put a floor under oil prices, preventing them from falling to $50. The catch-22 means prices won't go too low.
yields
The bond market will eventually be the adult in the room, punishing high deficits with higher yields. Interest rates will shoot to the sky.
| 6/18/2026 12:17:55 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.10% | -0.55% |
| 6/18/2026 12:03:48 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.10% | -1.10% |
| 6/12/2026 11:00:37 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +0.90% | +0.45% |
| 6/4/2026 3:50:45 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -3.17% | -3.17% |
| 5/28/2026 6:00:30 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -0.04% | -0.04% |
| 5/28/2026 12:51:31 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -0.04% | -0.04% |
| 5/11/2026 5:56:08 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +0.27% | +0.40% |
| 5/9/2026 2:39:35 AM | medium term sharp up | 21 days later | +1.47% | +2.21% |
| 4/30/2026 3:58:58 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +4.75% | +7.13% |
| 4/29/2026 11:56:07 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.59% | +0.59% |
| 4/29/2026 10:58:55 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +0.59% | +0.89% |
| 4/22/2026 11:17:13 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +0.72% | +1.08% |
| 4/22/2026 11:11:40 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.72% | +0.72% |
| 4/15/2026 5:00:11 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.09% | +1.09% |
| 4/9/2026 5:41:19 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.41% |
| 4/9/2026 5:36:25 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 4/9/2026 5:32:18 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 4/9/2026 3:55:52 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 4/7/2026 9:39:37 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.47% | +1.47% |
| 3/30/2026 5:18:49 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -1.41% | -2.12% |
| 3/30/2026 5:17:13 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +0.56% | +0.56% |
| 3/29/2026 4:56:43 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -2.12% | -2.12% |
| 3/20/2026 4:32:31 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.85% | -0.85% |
| 3/20/2026 1:25:20 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.85% | -0.85% |
| 3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.23% | +0.12% |
| 3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +2.59% | +1.30% |
| 3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.23% | -0.12% |
| 3/12/2026 8:50:04 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.61% | -0.91% |
| 3/9/2026 3:08:20 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +4.98% | +4.98% |
| 3/4/2026 4:03:19 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.24% | -0.24% |
| 3/4/2026 3:33:17 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.24% | -0.24% |
| 2/20/2026 3:49:52 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +4.74% | +2.37% |
| 1/6/2026 10:41:18 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.05% | +2.05% |
| 1/6/2026 7:30:15 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.05% | +2.05% |
| 1/6/2026 4:06:05 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.05% | +2.05% |
| 1/5/2026 3:34:19 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.81% | +0.81% |
| 11/14/2025 5:39:52 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -2.30% | -2.30% |
| 11/13/2025 11:11:01 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -0.96% | -0.48% |
| 10/21/2025 10:16:55 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.11% | -0.56% |
| 10/14/2025 3:56:23 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +1.06% |
| 9/29/2025 3:25:33 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.34% | -0.17% |
| 9/17/2025 1:26:35 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.39% |
| 9/15/2025 3:58:32 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +2.91% | -1.45% |
| 9/4/2025 11:05:46 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.10% | +1.05% |
| 9/4/2025 9:35:50 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.10% | +1.05% |
| 8/28/2025 4:47:53 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -2.91% | +1.45% |
| 8/26/2025 4:19:00 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/26/2025 4:05:31 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.00% | -7.50% |
| 8/26/2025 1:00:15 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.00% | -7.50% |
| 8/25/2025 3:41:18 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +0.45% | -0.22% |
| 8/20/2025 6:53:54 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -6.88% | -3.44% |
| 8/19/2025 5:49:35 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.49% | +0.24% |
| 8/14/2025 2:49:30 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.51% | +1.76% |
| 8/7/2025 2:21:54 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.82% | +0.91% |
| 8/5/2025 3:48:43 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +0.90% | +1.35% |
| 8/4/2025 3:58:24 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.88% | +0.94% |
| 7/19/2025 1:58:49 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -2.26% | +1.13% |
