Bianco warns that global oil inventories are being drawn down aggressively on the assumption the Strait of Hormuz closure is temporary. If it persists, operational minimums will be hit in weeks, causing shortages and sharp oil price spikes. AI remains the dominant market theme, with 48% of S&P 500 concentrated in 41 AI-related stocks. The Fed is constrained by internal dissent, and new Chair Worsh may struggle to push dovish policy. Big AI IPOs (SpaceX, Anthropic) could cause index rebalancing indigestion. Bianco remains risk-on for AI but sees turbulence ahead from energy and IPO flows.
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Bianco Research
8.5
Investment Research Firm
Jim Bianco 8.5
Investment Research Firm
Jim Bianco 8.5
6/4/2026 3:50:45 PM
- US 10Y yield → 5.0
dxy
Higher US yields (toward 5%) and a K-shaped economy where the rich are spending should support the dollar. Bianco's hawkish Fed outlook implies USD strength.
metals
Bianco does not discuss metals. Higher yields and a strong dollar are typically headwinds for gold. No explicit bullish or bearish signal.
ndx
Bianco says AI is the dominant theme and has room to go, but expects turbulence from oil minimums and IPO indigestion. He remains risk-on for AI but cautious about near-term headwinds.
rut
Bianco focuses on AI concentration in large caps (S&P 500/NDX) and does not mention small caps positively. The K-shaped economy benefits the top 10%, suggesting RUT may lag.
wti
If we hit operational minimums, we will see shortages and demand destruction. Oil could go to $200 if things get completely out of control.
| 5/28/2026 6:00:30 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +9.91% | +14.87% |
| 4/30/2026 8:14:17 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -6.73% | -10.09% |
| 4/30/2026 3:58:58 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.48% | -8.23% |
| 4/30/2026 12:35:50 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.48% | -8.23% |
| 4/29/2026 11:56:07 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -6.48% | -9.72% |
| 4/29/2026 11:12:18 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -6.48% | -9.72% |
| 4/29/2026 10:58:55 PM | long term sharp up | 60 days later | -32.94% | -49.41% |
| 4/22/2026 11:13:52 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +5.39% | +5.39% |
| 4/15/2026 5:00:11 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.70% | -2.70% |
| 4/10/2026 3:53:15 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -9.56% |
| 4/9/2026 5:24:14 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +8.80% | +8.80% |
| 4/9/2026 3:55:52 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -5.47% | -8.20% |
| 4/7/2026 9:39:37 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +4.95% | +7.42% |
| 4/1/2026 3:55:27 PM | long term sharp up | 60 days later | -17.37% | -26.06% |
| 3/20/2026 1:25:20 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM | long term cautious down | 60 days later | +13.02% | -6.51% |
| 3/12/2026 8:50:04 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.42% | -3.63% |
| 3/4/2026 3:33:17 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.01% | +3.01% |
| 2/20/2026 3:49:52 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +7.42% | +7.42% |
| 1/6/2026 7:30:15 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +11.43% | +11.43% |
| 1/6/2026 4:06:05 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +11.43% | +11.43% |
yields
I think interest rates are going to start to move up. We were under 4% on the 10-year before the war, now at 4.50%. I think it can move towards 5% or so by the end of the year.
| 5/28/2026 6:00:30 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -0.04% | -0.04% |
| 5/28/2026 12:51:31 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -0.04% | -0.04% |
| 5/11/2026 5:56:08 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +0.27% | +0.40% |
| 5/9/2026 2:39:35 AM | medium term sharp up | 21 days later | +1.47% | +2.21% |
| 4/30/2026 3:58:58 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +4.75% | +7.13% |
| 4/29/2026 11:56:07 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.59% | +0.59% |
| 4/29/2026 10:58:55 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +0.59% | +0.89% |
| 4/22/2026 11:17:13 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +0.72% | +1.08% |
| 4/22/2026 11:11:40 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.72% | +0.72% |
| 4/15/2026 5:00:11 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.09% | +1.09% |
| 4/9/2026 5:41:19 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.41% |
| 4/9/2026 5:36:25 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 4/9/2026 5:32:18 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 4/9/2026 3:55:52 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 4/7/2026 9:39:37 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.47% | +1.47% |
| 3/30/2026 5:18:49 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -1.41% | -2.12% |
| 3/30/2026 5:17:13 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +0.56% | +0.56% |
| 3/29/2026 4:56:43 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -2.12% | -2.12% |
| 3/20/2026 4:32:31 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.85% | -0.85% |
| 3/20/2026 1:25:20 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.85% | -0.85% |
| 3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.23% | +0.12% |
| 3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +2.59% | +1.30% |
| 3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.23% | -0.12% |
| 3/12/2026 8:50:04 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.61% | -0.91% |
| 3/9/2026 3:08:20 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +4.98% | +4.98% |
| 3/4/2026 4:03:19 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.24% | -0.24% |
| 3/4/2026 3:33:17 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.24% | -0.24% |
| 2/20/2026 3:49:52 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +4.74% | +2.37% |
| 1/6/2026 10:41:18 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.05% | +2.05% |
| 1/6/2026 7:30:15 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.05% | +2.05% |
| 1/6/2026 4:06:05 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.05% | +2.05% |
| 1/5/2026 3:34:19 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.81% | +0.81% |
| 11/14/2025 5:39:52 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -2.30% | -2.30% |
| 11/13/2025 11:11:01 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -0.96% | -0.48% |
| 10/21/2025 10:16:55 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.11% | -0.56% |
| 10/14/2025 3:56:23 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +1.06% |
| 9/29/2025 3:25:33 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.34% | -0.17% |
| 9/17/2025 1:26:35 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.39% |
| 9/15/2025 3:58:32 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +2.91% | -1.45% |
| 9/4/2025 11:05:46 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.10% | +1.05% |
| 9/4/2025 9:35:50 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.10% | +1.05% |
| 8/28/2025 4:47:53 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -2.91% | +1.45% |
| 8/26/2025 4:19:00 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/26/2025 4:05:31 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.00% | -7.50% |
| 8/26/2025 1:00:15 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.00% | -7.50% |
| 8/25/2025 3:41:18 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +0.45% | -0.22% |
| 8/20/2025 6:53:54 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -6.88% | -3.44% |
| 8/19/2025 5:49:35 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.49% | +0.24% |
| 8/14/2025 2:49:30 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.51% | +1.76% |
| 8/7/2025 2:21:54 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.82% | +0.91% |
| 8/5/2025 3:48:43 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +0.90% | +1.35% |
| 8/4/2025 3:58:24 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.88% | +0.94% |
| 7/19/2025 1:58:49 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -2.26% | +1.13% |
