ndx

Our target's 7800, that's the base case for 2026... we're seeing a broadening out in the earnings story, and we should see a broadening out in the equity story as a result of that. Based on rolling recovery from policy changes, investment cycle strength, and tremendous earnings revision breadth supporting higher equity prices despite valuation concerns.

yields

We're likely going to see, therefore, rates stay a little bit higher for longer. They're going to come down, but they're going to stay higher for longer than what we've seen historically. The forecast is based on inflation peaking mid-next year but remaining above the Fed's target, leading to a 'higher for longer' rate environment.

metals

this is even more positive for gold rather than crypto... the proper... hedge... is probably much more in precious metals rather than crypto Relative preference over crypto due to lower volatility and regulatory concerns; framed as hedge, not outright bullish call.

ndx

that really should mean all clear for a year end rally... Absolutely 100% [risk-on] Positioning signals in buy territory, Fed supportive, dip is non-fundamental.

yields

That could make investors nervous... and that would probably steepen the yield curve. If they push the terminal rate even lower... we just steepen the yield curve and we get inflation expectations lifting long term yields. Jones argues that dovish Fed policy under new leadership, without corresponding economic weakness or declining inflation, will lead to higher inflation expectations and thus higher long-term yields (yield curve steepening).

yields

rates to come down in the US to around 3% by the middle of next year Expected decline in interest rates coupled with economic growth and dollar moderation supports risk assets

metals

We still have a now look that's this pretty positive on the metals Acknowledges metals will be volatile too but maintains positive outlook as part of rotation strategy

ndx

I think the market looks pretty good, at least for the next four or five months Seasonally strong period, Fed cutting rates, earnings increasing, productivity and margins increasing

yields

most likely a Fed cut in December... corporate bond rates have come down Fed funds futures showing 86% chance of cut, comments from Fed governors suggest easing

dxy

Dollar kind of anchoring around this 100 level and dropping a bit below it Linked to Fed rate cut expectations and gold's advance due to weaker dollar

metals

Platinum has risen about 75% here, silver up 70% year-to-date, gold up 55% year-to-date with continued bullish momentum Driven by Chinese demand, supply disruptions, new futures contracts, and structural support from central banks and ETFs

yields

10-year Treasury yields dropped from about 4.14% back down to 4% here Based on Fed rate cut expectations and observed price action

yields

We might start to see that push to 2.75 to 2.50 Labor market weakening despite rates at 3% anchor level, expressing via curve flattening positions

metals

nearly 20% of additional price upside by the end of 26 with our forecast at $4,900 per troy ounce by the end of 26 Central bank diversification post-Russia sanctions, Fed rate cuts boosting ETF inflows, potential private sector diversification in small gold market relative to bond markets

rut

Russell 2000 is an indicator of small caps is up something like close to 10% this year... when it was likely that the Fed was going to cut, that's when you saw small caps take off Sees continued opportunity in small caps due to Fed cuts, valuation, and AI innovation in niche markets

yields

The rates on the longer end of the maturity spectrum, those 10s, 20s and 30s, we think those yield stay firm or even rise a little bit Expectation of steady to higher long-term rates supports financials thesis

ndx

Equities probably shows the most potential for upside. I don't think we're priced really for what I would expect in 2026 to be more of a broadening of the market. The other 493, not just the Mag 7 Expects market broadening beyond tech megacaps to drive equity gains in 2026, with economic recovery and reduced headwinds supporting overall market upside

ndx

they're going to continue to power the market higher Based on Nvidia's strong earnings and guidance as largest cap stock, with AI theme dominating market focus

metals

Gold being bought as diversifier people have confidence in aside from fixed income, precious metals remain in portfolios due to uncertainty and risk concerns

ndx

December could be an up month Based on strong fundamentals, rate cut expectations, earnings growth, and AI productivity gains, but tempered by major downside risks and uncertainty

ndx

We raise our S&P 500 price target to 7800 driven by strong earnings growth. We believe that we're in the midst of a new bull market and earnings cycle AI investment driving productivity gains, broadening earnings cycle, and 7800 S&P target imply continued upward trajectory for tech-heavy indices

ndx

We think we're gonna end next year around 7800. So quite a bit of upside still, for large caps ahead Maintains bullish outlook on large cap tech despite near-term choppiness, sees continued AI-driven growth

rut

We actually recently upgraded small caps, overweight versus large caps. We do think that there is going to be more risk appetite as we get into the first part of next year Expects rotation into small caps due to improved earnings revisions and transition from rolling recession to rolling recovery

yields

our economists think that we're going to get a dovish pause in September and we'll have three cuts in next year Expectation of Fed easing policy with multiple rate cuts indicates downward pressure on yields

yields

10 and 30 year yields are higher now than when Fed funds were over 5%, so for all this easing the long end isn't really responding at all Persistent inflation pressures and Fed lack of control over long end suggest continued upward pressure

dxy

If US interest rates are indeed headed lower, if US bond yields are headed lower, then we still think that will go for a gradually weaker dollar. That's unlikely to change. Maintains structural bearish USD view based on interest rate differentials and long-term de-dollarization trends

metals

Gold is being part of that... It's negatively correlated. It does very well in such bubbles... I would rather be short debt in a sense Dalio explicitly recommends gold as hedge against government debt problems and sees it performing well during bubble periods

yields

we've seen yields move down a little bit, especially on the short end of the yield curve Market reaction to Williams commentary showing immediate yield movement

dxy

Positioned bearishly on euro currency anticipating dollar strength if Fed unable to cut rates in December, with clients holding put options/short futures on EUR, GBP, JPY

metals

we could hit $5,000 an ounce in 2026... outlook remains incredibly optimistic Structural drivers including central bank buying, ETF flows, portfolio diversification, and eventual Fed easing in 2026 supporting multi-year bullish thesis

ndx

NASDAQ up about 1.5% Rotation into mega-cap tech as investors chase performance

yields

rising 10-year Treasury yields here up at 4.14%... 10-year note under just a bit of pressure Reduced probability of December rate cut supporting higher yields

ndx

Yes, NVIDIA's results are enough to restore confidence... Growth stocks should continue to perform well unless we move to a new higher sustained level of global growth. Levitt explicitly states NVIDIA earnings restore confidence and that growth stocks should continue performing well in the current environment, indicating positive near-term outlook for Nasdaq/tech stocks.

ndx

Earnings revisions are just phenomenally strong. The runway to next year in terms of earnings growth is great. Our 7750 price target is likely not going to imply any multiple expansion Despite current volatility and debt concerns, maintains bullish S&P 7750 target based on strong earnings growth fundamentals

ndx

It strikes me that the market could pull back further from here. I do think that the technicals are kind of more bias for more protection and more downside Based on market pullback being healthy after strong run, concerns about AI returns meeting expectations, and technical indicators showing bias toward protection

ndx

the NASDAQ composite did as well and closed below its 50 day SMA for the first time since April Technical breakdown with key moving average breach combined with souring AI sentiment and rotation out of growth sectors

rut

the Russell 2000, which has been at a downtrend for about five weeks now closed below its 100 day SMA for the first time since June Extended downtrend with technical breakdown below key moving average level

dxy

Dollar in structural decline - FX reserves 65% in USD but US economy only 25% of global economy, 13% of global trade Sees structural pressure on dollar as global trade shifts away from dollar dominance

yields

Fed neutral rate around 300bps, we're still at 400bps, so they have potential to cut below 300bps to become stimulative Expects Fed to continue cutting rates to reach neutral level, which would push yields lower

metals

I think gold is going to be bigger than the dollar in global FX reserves within 2 to 3 years Fiscal dominance makes treasuries unsuitable as reserve assets; central bank gold buying accelerating; commodity markets much larger than gold will bid prices higher; gold already surpassed treasuries in reserves

yields

without sending 10-year Treasury yields to rates that I estimate to be somewhere between 4.6 and 4.8% which would start to trigger equity volatility Structural deficits and inability to term out debt without yield pressure; treadmill problem forces bill issuance but creates upward pressure on longer yields

ndx

I think this is a buying opportunity. I don't think this is a change in trend Expects 2026 GDP growth and productivity gains from tech investment to support earnings

yields

I expect them to cut 25 basis points Based on Phillips curve framework showing rising unemployment and falling wage inflation

yields

I would cut and I would have started cutting in July Believes Fed should be cutting rates due to productivity boom potential and to avoid derailing growth

metals

I've been putting new money to work for the last five days in most markets that you can imagine. Whether it's gold, precious metals Actively buying metals currently; mentions gold up 65% and maintains 5-10% portfolio allocation to commodities including gold, palladium, silver

ndx

Left there feeling more bullish than I even came in; if you truly believe in how transformational this will be and how early we are Distinguishes AI as technological supercycle not bubble, cites reasonable valuations (30-32x vs historical 80x), fewer public companies, and massive private capital seeking AI exposure

ndx

Concerns about tech debt issuance, cash flow risks from data center investments, and credit spread widening suggest cautious outlook for big tech names that dominate NDX

yields

That would lead to some upside surprises for Treasury yields, especially short term yields... maybe you see short and intermediate term yields rise a little bit to kind of readjust to that outlook If Fed doesn't cut in December and extends pause beyond market expectations, yields need to adjust upward from current forward-looking pricing

yields

We certainly do because the short end coming down looking through over the next 12 months Expects yield curve steepening with short-term rates declining while long end may rise, creating uncertainty that takes froth out of equity markets

ndx

we're looking for a higher market next year Base case 7300 by June 2026, could go as high as 8000, driven by technological innovation and fiscal developments

wti

price of oil go down to $58 a barrel Affects every single thing we have, haven't fully processed by marketplace, will see prices come down and stabilize

yields

we have the Fed on the track to lower interest rates Fed can lower due to weakness in labor and lack of new data during government shutdown