yields

if you chip away too much [at Fed independence], in my view, this is my opinion, it will drive rates higher, not lower. Links political pressure/erosion of Fed credibility directly to higher interest rates.

yields

I do believe that's going to lead to a steeper yield curve. Justification is deflationary trends from AI and China's trade surplus creating conditions for lower policy rates, which historically steepen the curve. The risk of elevated rates due to fiscal deficits and potential loss of foreign confidence in US Treasuries provides a secondary, longer-term bullish argument for yields.

ndx

Explicitly states that 10-year yields over 5-5.5% 'would shock the equity market' and 'have a very negative impact on the equity market... force a revaluation.' This is a direct causal link from his yield view to equities.

yields

there's a probability we could see the ten year over 5%, maybe even 5.5%... the yield curve is going to get steeper, not flatter. Driven by potential new inflationary pressures from private capital deployment and deficit concerns, not the Fed's immediate actions.

metals

Key commodity remains gold... 5300 with a high conviction will get there. Positioned as the 'ultimate geopolitical hedge' against dollar exposure and current uncertainties.

yields

I think the Fed's got to get the rate down at 3%. I think that's closer to equilibrium. Argument is based on addressing a 'labor problem' and allowing an 'over levered' economy/government to 'breathe'. This is a policy prescription implying lower policy rates, which would generally pull down yields.

wti

for producers, there's a sweet spot for oil prices. And if we go too low, we have too much supply. It's not profitable for them to drill The argument centers on a balancing act: prices must be high enough to incentivize production investment but low enough to aid consumer affordability. This describes a range-bound or sideways dynamic, not a clear directional call for 'cautious down'.

metals

Nuclear has to be part of the solution... Cameco... great way to get exposure. Explicit bullishness on uranium (a metal) due to necessity for baseload power to meet rising demand from data centers, anticipating 2.6% CAGR power demand growth.

rut

We've been recommending small caps. Explicit recommendation of small caps as part of broadening trade, particularly in first half with >3% GDP growth creating pro-cyclical environment.

yields

We have four, two on the tenure at the end of the year. About where we are today. Explicit forecast for 10-year Treasury yield at 4.2% at year-end, similar to current levels, indicating sideways movement.

dxy

I still think we're in a case for a dollar weakness this year... monetary policy expectations would really put a backstop to any dollar strength because it really supports dollar weakness on a relative perspective here.

yields

A ruling against Trump would increase bill issuance... yields across the curve would rise, but yields at the front end of the curve would rise even more.

ndx

Pricing is going up in cloud. Spot pricing is starting to go up. That tells you about the demand being generated all over the world. All told, we should have a very good year. Strong cloud pricing and demand growth indicates continued bullish outlook for tech/AI sector through 2026.

metals

things like gold, which worked very well in 2025, but also can work very well in that geopolitical risk off scenario if we were to get one The interviewee explicitly recommends gold as a diversifier and hedge, implying a positive outlook. The recommendation is part of a portfolio construction theme for the coming period (2026).

wti

I could tend to see that without the Venezuelan news, you'd probably have seen crude oil prices start to drift higher for the first, at least first half of the year. And I still think that that'll be the case. Deals already done, economy strong, demand up, Chinese weakness priced in.

yields

So I think that the outlier of the 10-year yield being down in 25 is going to reverse, and it's going to be a little bit higher. Political manipulation unsustainable; global growth/inflation trends and other bond markets don't support lower US 10-year.

yields

375 to 4 and a quarter on the tenion is the likely range for the year if we stay in this sort of soft landing mode Front end may come down with Fed cuts, but long end anchored by deficit concerns; curve already steepened with investors getting compensation for duration; no additional fiscal spending expected to push yields significantly higher

metals

Metals have performed incredibly well... Fed cuts tend to support metals prices significantly more than energy prices... you get this divergence where the metals do very well Combination of Fed cuts, constrained supply (especially gold), central bank buying, and potential US tariffs for silver/copper create bullish environment.

metals

long gold for 2026... one of the main structural drivers of this rally... incremental central bank buying... supply is unable to respond quickly... more people competing for that same limited amount of the bullion EM central banks diversifying reserves away from dollars post-Russia sanctions; structural supply constraints; China has only ~10% gold reserves vs. over 70% for DMs, suggesting continued buying

wti

we expect WTI to average 52 dollars a barrel next year... our bearish call on oil for next year Significant supply coming online from Brazil, Guyana, and other ex-Russia projects that were delayed during pandemic; doesn't require additional Venezuela supply

yields

that itself is allowing for the Fed to continue to perhaps deliver two rate cuts for sure that is our expectation. Gradual disinflation narrative supports the Fed's ability to cut, implying lower policy rates and downward pressure on yields.

yields

You can have a 4% ten year treasury yield and have inflation holding pattern Argues that if growth is driven by productivity (like late 1990s), yields can remain stable (~4%) without requiring restrictive policy, implying no strong directional move up or down.

yields

there is a little bit of a message from the bond market here that yeah, the feds going to control the short end, but the long end is reacting to better growth, sticky inflation, demand for capital that we're seeing everywhere that pushes up the term premium. And so I think that is more than a risk, Lisa, it's the reality of what we're seeing in the market right now. Links yield rise to growth, inflation, and capital demand, not just Fed policy. Cites recent yield curve steepening as evidence of a current, ongoing dynamic.

dxy

Looking for a weaker dollar... I think that is a headwind for the dollar... that's also going to weigh on the dollar. Explicitly calls for weaker dollar due to interest rate differentials (other CBs hiking vs. US) and gradual central bank diversification away from USD ('slow drip').

metals

looking at things like gold, I'm 30 year in a row, I'm a gold bull. Explicit multi-year bullish call on gold. Context includes seeking diversification and weaker dollar, which supports metals.

ndx

There'll be a little bit more volatility in tech and communication services, largely speaking... so there'll be some choppiness there. The interviewee directly forecasts increased volatility and 'choppiness' for the tech sector (a core component of NDX) in the near term, citing questions about sustaining high growth rates in the AI capital investment build-out and execution challenges.

rut

We feel pretty good about the small cap space. In fact, we have overweight in large cap mid cap and small cap. The interviewee is explicitly overweight small caps (RUT proxy), citing their recent all-time highs, fiscal relief (100% expensing), and the benefit from lower rates. This constitutes a cautious positive outlook.

yields

over the last three months, we've really been in a range, a fairly tight range on the ten year treasury of between 4 and 4 and a quarter

yields

We were in buying this morning when we walked in. So we like yields at these levels. We thought that the market had backed up too far and it made sense for us to stick our toe in. Sees bond selloff as overdone due to market overreacting to dissent risks; expects moderation in labor market and lower inflation to support yields coming down.

metals

We also have silver and gold on the positive and on the rise Metals rallying alongside tech stocks in response to dovish Fed policy and liquidity injection

ndx

The tech ETF we were talking about this yesterday on a 12 day win streak. Well, it's now in the green after this move up to possibly have a 13 day stretch to be its longest in about eight years Tech rally continuing on dovish Fed sentiment and liquidity injection

yields

I think they will cut... the Fed will ultimately embark on a deeper easing cycle than the market currently has... requirement to move interest rates sharply lower than they are today. Based on expectation of weaker labor market data emerging in 2026, requiring Fed easing to counteract, and driven by AI productivity gains lowering cost pressures.

metals

we remain bullish. We have 5,000 more. And I'll start it because we think investors will keep buying gold Fractured geopolitical environment, large government deficits, expectations of continued monetary easing, and central bank buying despite potential marginal headwinds.

wti

we think prices will likely be a little weaker in the first half of next year OPEC adding production, steady demand leading to inventory build and downward pressure, but OPEC cautious and Chinese buying prevent a crash.

ndx

we're not expecting a linear upward trajectory as it relates to risk assets and in fact, we expect to see some volatility. Specifically mentions equities and the margin of error being tighter due to valuations. Expects continued dispersion among AI names, not a fundamental correction but not a smooth ride.

yields

I don't think rates are going very far. I think ultimately you're going to see rates come down. His core thesis is that the Fed will cut to 3%, which implies lower policy rates and should pull down longer-term yields over the medium term.

metals

Gold will do better as a diversifier. So it has the effect in such times of raising the returns and diversifying the portfolio. His bullish view is conditional on the macro risks he outlines (debt, currency devaluation, political/geopolitical conflict). He sees gold as a hedge that will appreciate when these risks materialize and hurt other assets.