Bloomberg Surveillance: The Fed Decides 6/17/2026

yields

The committee decided to maintain the target range for the fed funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%.

134 calls

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

5/28/2026 9:19:50 PM	medium term up	20 days later	-0.04%	-0.04%
5/26/2026 3:37:50 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.13%	-0.13%
5/18/2026 4:30:56 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-2.46%	+1.23%
5/15/2026 9:33:59 PM	medium term sharp up	21 days later	-1.54%	-2.30%
5/14/2026 3:58:16 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-2.57%	+1.28%
5/6/2026 9:31:19 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+1.62%	+0.81%
4/29/2026 9:59:50 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+0.59%	+0.30%
4/21/2026 9:02:49 PM	short term up	5 days later	+0.98%	+0.98%
4/1/2026 10:00:00 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.44%	+0.22%
3/30/2026 9:16:07 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-1.41%	+0.71%
3/18/2026 11:29:30 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.23%	+0.12%
3/18/2026 8:57:23 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.23%	-0.12%
3/5/2026 10:19:45 AM	medium term down	20 days later	+6.85%	-6.85%
2/24/2026 5:28:52 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+3.80%	-1.90%
1/31/2026 1:39:54 AM	short term cautious down	7 days later	-1.80%	+0.90%
1/30/2026 4:06:49 PM	short term up	7 days later	-1.80%	-1.80%
1/21/2026 10:03:18 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-1.81%	-0.91%
1/8/2026 11:18:05 PM	medium term down	20 days later	+1.34%	-1.34%
1/8/2026 5:00:02 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.34%	-0.67%
12/23/2025 1:43:04 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.85%	-0.42%
12/22/2025 6:49:39 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	-1.27%	+0.64%
12/19/2025 4:38:22 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+0.43%	-0.22%
12/17/2025 4:02:54 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.53%	-0.27%
12/12/2025 11:35:37 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-0.41%	+0.20%
12/11/2025 8:07:07 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-0.17%	+0.08%
12/10/2025 11:45:00 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.19%	-0.10%
12/10/2025 10:06:22 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.19%	-0.10%
12/10/2025 9:59:59 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.19%	-0.19%
12/10/2025 9:58:25 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.19%	-0.19%
12/8/2025 4:22:22 PM	short term down	6 days later	-0.10%	+0.10%
11/25/2025 1:10:38 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+2.45%	-1.23%
11/25/2025 10:11:27 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+2.45%	-1.23%
11/21/2025 4:18:30 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+3.57%	-1.78%
11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM	short term down	5 days later	-2.30%	+2.30%
11/10/2025 7:15:17 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.58%	+0.29%
11/10/2025 5:17:27 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.58%	+0.29%
11/7/2025 10:50:35 PM	medium term down	21 days later	-0.34%	+0.34%
11/4/2025 2:28:09 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-1.13%	+0.57%
11/4/2025 2:28:09 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-1.13%	+0.57%
11/3/2025 9:06:33 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-1.25%	-0.62%
11/3/2025 7:15:45 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.51%	-0.26%
11/3/2025 5:15:56 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-1.25%	-0.62%
11/3/2025 3:04:15 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-1.25%	+0.62%
10/30/2025 5:30:59 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.12%	-0.06%
10/30/2025 1:30:10 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.37%	-0.68%
10/30/2025 1:00:07 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.37%	-0.68%
10/29/2025 11:38:10 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.10%	+0.05%
10/29/2025 10:44:00 PM	short term down	5 days later	-0.10%	+0.10%
10/29/2025 10:11:32 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.10%	+0.05%
10/29/2025 10:00:33 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.98%	-0.49%
10/29/2025 9:40:37 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.98%	-0.49%
10/29/2025 9:34:46 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.10%	+0.05%
10/29/2025 9:30:01 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.10%	+0.05%
10/29/2025 9:19:58 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.98%	+0.49%
10/29/2025 9:15:22 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.98%	-0.49%
10/29/2025 9:15:00 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.98%	+0.49%
10/29/2025 9:08:09 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-0.10%	-0.05%
10/29/2025 9:05:01 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.98%	-0.49%
10/29/2025 9:02:24 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.10%	+0.05%
10/29/2025 8:57:22 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.10%	+0.05%
10/16/2025 6:04:41 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-1.35%	+0.67%
10/16/2025 4:52:44 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+2.15%	-1.07%
10/16/2025 4:01:47 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+2.15%	-1.07%
10/15/2025 9:05:27 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+4.55%	-2.28%
10/15/2025 8:00:24 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+4.55%	-2.28%
10/15/2025 5:49:02 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.33%	+0.16%
10/15/2025 1:03:55 PM	short term sharp down	5 days later	-0.33%	+0.49%
10/15/2025 12:59:00 PM	short term sharp down	5 days later	-0.33%	+0.49%
10/14/2025 11:49:39 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+1.06%	+0.53%
10/14/2025 10:05:13 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-1.48%	+0.74%
10/14/2025 9:31:14 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.06%	-0.53%
10/14/2025 9:15:03 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+1.06%	+0.53%
10/14/2025 7:56:12 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+1.06%	+0.53%
10/3/2025 6:45:12 PM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	-3.96%	-1.98%
10/3/2025 5:48:20 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-3.96%	+1.98%
10/3/2025 5:24:31 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-3.96%	+1.98%
9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.36%	-0.68%
9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.36%	-0.68%
9/25/2025 9:08:46 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-5.04%	+2.52%
9/25/2025 6:06:52 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-5.04%	+2.52%
9/25/2025 4:23:00 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-5.04%	+2.52%
9/25/2025 2:39:06 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-1.93%	+0.97%
9/23/2025 8:17:55 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.14%	+0.07%
9/23/2025 4:45:06 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.14%	+0.07%
9/22/2025 10:12:27 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.51%	-0.25%
9/22/2025 7:01:00 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.51%	-0.25%
9/19/2025 7:19:43 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	-0.05%	+0.02%
9/19/2025 3:30:59 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	-0.05%	+0.02%
9/18/2025 2:13:16 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.19%	-0.10%
9/18/2025 2:00:01 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.22%	-0.11%
9/17/2025 11:14:58 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.61%	+0.30%
9/17/2025 10:48:21 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.39%	-0.19%
9/17/2025 10:45:01 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.39%	-0.19%
9/17/2025 10:16:13 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.39%	-0.19%
9/17/2025 10:12:22 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.61%	-0.30%
9/17/2025 10:09:39 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.39%	-0.19%
9/17/2025 10:03:46 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.39%	-0.19%
9/17/2025 10:00:17 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.39%	-0.39%
9/16/2025 3:38:44 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.64%	-0.82%
9/16/2025 3:30:44 PM	short term down	5 days later	+1.64%	-1.64%
9/15/2025 4:08:28 PM	short term down	6 days later	+2.91%	-2.91%
9/12/2025 2:49:43 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+2.70%	-1.35%
9/10/2025 2:40:48 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.37%	-0.19%
9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.37%	-0.19%
9/4/2025 5:58:21 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+2.10%	+1.05%
9/3/2025 5:47:14 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.69%	+0.35%
9/3/2025 5:46:57 PM	medium term sharp down	20 days later	-0.69%	+1.04%
9/3/2025 4:33:59 PM	short term down	5 days later	-2.44%	+2.44%
9/3/2025 4:33:52 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-2.44%	+1.22%
8/29/2025 4:29:23 PM	short term cautious up	6 days later	-5.40%	-2.70%
8/29/2025 2:20:50 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	-5.40%	+2.70%
8/29/2025 2:11:04 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	-5.40%	+2.70%
8/29/2025 10:48:16 AM	short term cautious down	6 days later	-5.40%	+2.70%
8/29/2025 10:10:30 AM	short term down	6 days later	-5.40%	+5.40%
8/29/2025 2:27:21 AM	short term cautious down	6 days later	-5.40%	+2.70%
8/27/2025 5:54:14 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-3.11%	+1.56%
8/27/2025 4:26:23 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-3.11%	+1.56%
8/26/2025 6:50:08 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-5.00%	-2.50%
8/26/2025 8:42:05 AM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.92%	-0.46%
8/25/2025 5:57:59 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-5.26%	+2.63%
8/25/2025 8:38:14 AM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+0.45%	-0.22%
8/22/2025 11:32:42 PM	short term down	8 days later	+0.05%	-0.05%
8/22/2025 8:13:21 PM	short term cautious down	8 days later	+0.05%	-0.02%
8/20/2025 4:24:10 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-1.66%	-0.83%
8/14/2025 11:48:29 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.74%	+0.37%
8/12/2025 11:45:00 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.92%	-0.46%
8/12/2025 11:24:12 PM	medium term sharp down	20 days later	+0.92%	-1.38%
8/12/2025 4:25:35 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.92%	-0.46%
8/12/2025 7:46:47 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+2.43%	-1.22%
8/7/2025 6:16:13 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-1.10%	+0.55%
8/7/2025 5:34:00 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-1.82%	+0.91%
8/5/2025 12:45:01 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.90%	-0.45%
7/30/2025 11:06:39 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-1.47%	-0.73%
7/30/2025 9:54:37 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-1.47%	-0.73%

Show all 134 yields results

Bob Michele

The biggest question is what Warsh means by 'regime change' and whether he will outline a new framework or just get through this meeting without controversy.

The Fed Act is 113 years old; modernization is needed but not at the first meeting.
Bob Michele

Warsh is destined to disappoint the President because the economy is in good shape, which does not warrant rate cuts. The dot plot may show 2-3 rate hikes, which the President will not like.

A sequence of events that would cause rate cuts would mean problems in the economy, which is not a healthy environment.
Bob Michele

If the Fed just drops the easing bias, the vote will be 12-0 for no cut. If they leave fuzzy language, there could be dissents for higher rates.
Bob Michele

The market would be equally surprised by a hawkish or dovish tilt. Everyone sees the need to do nothing and let the Middle East situation and oil settle.

If they see a hawkish tilt, they will think it's premature. If they see a dovish tilt, they will say it's yesterday's news.
Bob Michele

Warsh is right that inflation is a choice. If you increase the money supply, you get higher inflation. If you drain liquidity, you moderate inflation.
Bob Michele

The bond market has already repriced significantly (10yr from 3.90% to 4.70%). The easing bias has been removed and 1-2 rate hikes are priced in. The market is in good shape.

Don't worry about the 10yr until it gets to 4.58%.
Subadra Rajappa

The economy is in a sweet spot. We are not expecting a lot of changes. The SEP might show modestly higher inflation and lower unemployment. The key is the dot plot and whether Warsh submits a dot.

The next thing to watch is how long the press conference is.
Subadra Rajappa

Oil prices are very important as they peg the narrative of headline inflation being transitory. Core inflation is trending higher and argues for the Fed to keep policy on hold well into next year.

The trajectory for core inflation is on the hotter side, between 3% and 3.5% for the remainder of the year.
Aditya Bhave

We think the easing bias will be removed and the dot plot won't show any policy action this year. The key is how many people show hikes (we ballparked 3). Warsh will likely lean dovish relative to the committee.

He can take a victory lap on his comment to look through supply shocks, with oil prices falling.
Aditya Bhave

Warsh can stick with the AI disinflation story. The challenge is the period of significant overshoot in inflation before we get there and how much tolerance the committee has.

Even if inflation goes back to 2% in two years, what is happening in the intervening years? Are we averaging 3-3.5%?
Bob Michele

Central bankers need to think about AI as an existential threat to the banking system, as Christine Lagarde highlighted.

If AI gets into the banking system and creates another financial crisis, what do you do?
Bob Michele

There are three massive capex programs underway globally (AI, border security/defense, energy security) that will need capital, compete for capital, and create a cost for that capital.
Bob Michele

The FOMC is sending a hawkish message. Half the committee expects rate hikes this year, which is a real shot across the bow. The inflation projections are up significantly (0.6-0.9% for this year).

The FOMC is not thinking this inflation will be transitory enough to see disinflation by year-end.
Bob Michele

Warsh not submitting a dot is a slap across the face. We'll see how he deals with that.
Richard Clarida

I am not surprised Warsh did not submit a dot. But 9 participants writing down a rate hike is above what I was thinking.

The big markup in core inflation relative to March suggests the pressure is not just a pass-through from energy prices but is more broadly based.
Richard Clarida

The last line of the statement ('the committee will deliver price stability') is an important change. By statute the Fed has a dual mandate, but we are at full employment, so I wouldn't read into this that they are abandoning the employment mandate.
Bob Michele

The Fed is concerned by the level of inflation, the capex cycle, and is scarred by 2022. They are getting us ready for rate hikes.

They are watching other central banks lift rates and their bond markets responding well.
Diane Swonk

I am not surprised. The minutes from the last meeting showed a move towards the hawkish camp. Even Fed governors who usually hold their cards close are talking about price stability being more important now.

The focus on price stability is given the stability in the unemployment rate. The Fed is saying they are not going to take inflation as transitory.
Diane Swonk

The concern is that underlying core inflation is not only sticky but may be re-accelerating. It is beyond the energy shock and tariff shocks; it is in the core super-services component.

Manufacturers are front-running future price hikes, which is the exact behavior the Fed is tasked to prevent.
Diane Swonk

The neutral rate is likely higher than they thought. On top of that, we may need another hike. I still expect two hikes by year-end.
Matthew Luzzetti

This was towards the hawkish end of expectations. Half the dots (9) showing rate hikes, 6 showing 50bp or more. The upward revision in core inflation to 3.3% this year and 2.5% next year is critical.

The median expectation is that more than six years into the inflation shock, inflation is still not down to 2.5%.
Matthew Luzzetti

We are just going to get less information in the statement. The ultimate question is what we hear from Warsh at the press conference. He has been critical of both forward guidance and data dependency.
Matthew Luzzetti

The case presented by the forecast and dots is clearly hawkish. If Warsh is not in line with that view, he will have to present an alternative case. I don't see a plausible alternative case given the data.

The labor market is strengthening, inflation is entrenched and broad-based, financial conditions are easy, and growth is solid.
Bob Michele

The long end of the market likes this (a Fed that is vigilant again creates support for the long end). The front end is up 6-8bp, the long end is down.
Bob Michele

Warsh has proven he is his own Fed chair. He will do what the data tells him. We are in good hands.
Kevin Warsh

The committee decided to maintain the target range for the fed funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%. The committee also reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves.
Kevin Warsh

We recognize that inflation has been running well ahead of the Fed's long-stated inflation goal of 2% for more than five years. This committee is unambiguous and unanimous: we will deliver price stability.
Kevin Warsh

I am appointing a task force in each of five areas: Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks. I expect them to begin work in the next couple of weeks and conclude by year-end.
Kevin Warsh

I have refrained from offering any projections of my own, consistent with my long-held views on the SEP as currently structured.
Kevin Warsh

On the 2% inflation objective, I see no reason until we have re-established our commitment and ability to deliver on it to revisit that. That will be outside the scope of what we are taking on.
Kevin Warsh

I can't give you any forward guidance about what we are going to do next. The good news is we will be meeting in six weeks.
Kevin Warsh

On restrictiveness: it's uneven. Fed policy appears somewhat restrictive in housing, but I would have a hard time saying those words if I look at financial markets.

That is perhaps a function of different transmission mechanisms of monetary policy (interest rate tool vs. balance sheet tool).
Kevin Warsh

I reviewed the dot plots and noted that all the submissions were coming in with pencils (with big erasers). My colleagues understand the world is changing quickly and didn't feel bound by them.

I didn't hear tons of conviction; I heard the kind of humility that I think we should have.
Kevin Warsh

Press conferences can be useful, but when you have one, you want to make sure you have something important to say. Today I think we had something important to say.
Kevin Warsh

Financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data, not when they ask how the Fed will react. I'd like to create a system where those blinders come off.

When all financial markets are doing is reflecting back what we've said, we are taking the most important source of information and being blind to it.
Kevin Warsh

There was one proposal on the table (to hold rates). There was no discussion of any other proposals. The group was unanimous and unambiguous on it.
Kevin Warsh

I don't believe that we have a cruel choice between inflation and employment. If we do our job, we can make strong growth, low prices, and strong employment mutually compatible.
Kevin Warsh

On AI: it is perhaps as important a change in the economy as we have had in my adult lifetime. It is filled with both huge opportunity and risks. Over the long term, the United States is a winner.
Kevin Warsh

On data: most of the data central bankers consume come with old-fashioned survey methods. We need better real-time information, not echoes of history.
Kate Moore

There was broad acknowledgement that the economy is in good shape and rates are not restricting any major sector outside of housing. There was a collegial tone about the Fed working together.
Jim Bianco

This is a welcome thing. The Fed needed to change. This communication style is about 20 years old and the world has changed.

Warsh pointed out that the dot plot very rarely happens the way they say it will, so we were over-relying on an inaccurate forecast.
Jim Bianco

The Fed didn't disclose their vote for the first time ever. This suggests they are going full ECB, which never discloses its vote. They'd rather keep it as a family fight.
Jeffrey Rosenberg

The first reaction is not always the right reaction. There is a risk of overplaying the yield curve flattening. The market is split between the old reaction function (moving on the dot plot) and Warsh telling us he will get rid of it.
Jeffrey Rosenberg

Is this hawkish for rates or hawkish for the balance sheet? The primary tool for doing away with the era of central banks as dominant price makers is the balance sheet. That task force may be more important than the others.

The source of the unevenness in restrictiveness might be due to transmission mechanisms: interest rates (housing) vs. the balance sheet (easiness of financial conditions).
Jeffrey Rosenberg

The Fed may be less supportive of financial conditions, but this is occurring in an environment where the contribution of the Fed's role to risky assets is much more secondary to what we are seeing in the real economy (AI, capex, earnings growth).

It might be an opportunistic moment for the Fed to take a step back on supportive financial conditions when financial conditions can stand on their own.
Stephanie Roth

He is setting up to be a very credible Fed. He was not in favor of a hike today, but that could change with incoming data. It was more hawkish than some thought.

Some thought he would push through rate cuts because that's what the President wants, but that wouldn't be good for markets anyway.
Stephanie Roth

This silences the critics who thought we would not have an independent Fed under Warsh. He is looking at incoming data and doesn't seem scared to hike if needed.
Stephanie Roth

You have to raise your odds of a near-term hike. Half the committee is very much interested in hiking rates given the data we have today.

Before the meeting, the expectation was between 3 and 6 members penciling in a hike. Now we are substantially above that.

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