New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds rates steady at 3.5-3.75%, shortens the policy statement, removes forward guidance, and refrains from submitting his own SEP projections. He emphasizes the FOMC's unanimous commitment to restoring price stability after 5+ years of above-target inflation, while acknowledging solid economic growth and elevated uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. The median SEP projects GDP at 2.2% this year, PCE inflation at 3.6% this year falling to 2.3% next year, and the fed funds rate ending 2025 at 3.8%.
explicit
inferred
implicit
inferred
inferred
Fed funds cautious up
Federal Reserve
9.0
Central Bank
Kevin Warsh 8.5
Central Bank
Kevin Warsh 8.5
6/17/2026 9:52:23 PM
dxy
The Fed holding rates at 3.5-3.75% while inflation remains sticky and the median dot shows limited cuts should support the dollar versus currencies of central banks that are easing or have lower rate expectations.
metals
Real rates remaining elevated and the dollar likely strengthening on the hawkish hold should cap gold upside. However, geopolitical uncertainty provides a floor. Net effect is rangebound trading in precious metals.
ndx
Higher-for-longer rates and the removal of forward guidance create uncertainty for growth-sensitive tech valuations. The Fed's singular focus on price stability suggests no imminent easing, which typically weighs on high-duration equities like the Nasdaq.
rut
Small caps are more sensitive to domestic economic conditions and higher borrowing costs. With rates held at restrictive levels and inflation still well above target, the Russell 2000 faces headwinds from tighter financial conditions and uncertainty about the rate path.
wti
elevated uncertainty that owes in part to the conflict in the Middle East
The Fed explicitly cites Middle East conflict as a source of uncertainty. Geopolitical risk typically introduces volatility in oil prices, with potential supply disruption risks pushing prices up while demand concerns from tighter financial conditions cap gains.
yields
The committee decided to maintain the target range for the fed funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75%... median participant judges appropriate fed funds rate at 3.8% end of this year and 3.6% end of next year.
Holding rates at a restrictive level while inflation remains well above target (3.6% this year) and the median dot shows only modest cuts ahead implies upward pressure on yields as the market prices in a higher-for-longer rate path.
| 5/28/2026 9:19:50 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -0.04% | -0.04% |
| 5/26/2026 3:37:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.13% | -0.13% |
| 5/18/2026 4:30:56 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -2.46% | +1.23% |
| 5/15/2026 9:33:59 PM | medium term sharp up | 21 days later | -1.54% | -2.30% |
| 5/14/2026 3:58:16 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -2.57% | +1.28% |
| 5/6/2026 9:31:19 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.62% | +0.81% |
| 4/29/2026 9:59:50 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +0.59% | +0.30% |
| 4/21/2026 9:02:49 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.98% | +0.98% |
| 4/1/2026 10:00:00 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.44% | +0.22% |
| 3/30/2026 9:16:07 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.41% | +0.71% |
| 3/18/2026 11:29:30 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.23% | +0.12% |
| 3/18/2026 8:57:23 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.23% | -0.12% |
| 3/5/2026 10:19:45 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +6.85% | -6.85% |
| 2/24/2026 5:28:52 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +3.80% | -1.90% |
| 1/31/2026 1:39:54 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -1.80% | +0.90% |
| 1/30/2026 4:06:49 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.80% | -1.80% |
| 1/21/2026 10:03:18 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.81% | -0.91% |
| 1/8/2026 11:18:05 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +1.34% | -1.34% |
| 1/8/2026 5:00:02 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.34% | -0.67% |
| 12/23/2025 1:43:04 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.85% | -0.42% |
| 12/22/2025 6:49:39 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -1.27% | +0.64% |
| 12/19/2025 4:38:22 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +0.43% | -0.22% |
| 12/17/2025 4:02:54 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.53% | -0.27% |
| 12/12/2025 11:35:37 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -0.41% | +0.20% |
| 12/11/2025 8:07:07 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -0.17% | +0.08% |
| 12/10/2025 11:45:00 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.19% | -0.10% |
| 12/10/2025 10:06:22 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.19% | -0.10% |
| 12/10/2025 9:59:59 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.19% | -0.19% |
| 12/10/2025 9:58:25 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.19% | -0.19% |
| 12/8/2025 4:22:22 PM | short term down | 6 days later | -0.10% | +0.10% |
| 11/25/2025 1:10:38 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +2.45% | -1.23% |
| 11/25/2025 10:11:27 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +2.45% | -1.23% |
| 11/21/2025 4:18:30 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +3.57% | -1.78% |
| 11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.30% | +2.30% |
| 11/10/2025 7:15:17 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.58% | +0.29% |
| 11/10/2025 5:17:27 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.58% | +0.29% |
| 11/7/2025 10:50:35 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | -0.34% | +0.34% |
| 11/4/2025 2:28:09 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.13% | +0.57% |
| 11/4/2025 2:28:09 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.13% | +0.57% |
| 11/3/2025 9:06:33 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.25% | -0.62% |
| 11/3/2025 7:15:45 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.51% | -0.26% |
| 11/3/2025 5:15:56 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.25% | -0.62% |
| 11/3/2025 3:04:15 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.25% | +0.62% |
| 10/30/2025 5:30:59 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.12% | -0.06% |
| 10/30/2025 1:30:10 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.37% | -0.68% |
| 10/30/2025 1:00:07 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.37% | -0.68% |
| 10/29/2025 11:38:10 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/29/2025 10:44:00 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.10% |
| 10/29/2025 10:11:32 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/29/2025 10:00:33 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.98% | -0.49% |
| 10/29/2025 9:40:37 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.98% | -0.49% |
| 10/29/2025 9:34:46 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/29/2025 9:30:01 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/29/2025 9:19:58 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.98% | +0.49% |
| 10/29/2025 9:15:22 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.98% | -0.49% |
| 10/29/2025 9:15:00 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.98% | +0.49% |
| 10/29/2025 9:08:09 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.10% | -0.05% |
| 10/29/2025 9:05:01 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.98% | -0.49% |
| 10/29/2025 9:02:24 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/29/2025 8:57:22 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/16/2025 6:04:41 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.35% | +0.67% |
| 10/16/2025 4:52:44 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.15% | -1.07% |
| 10/16/2025 4:01:47 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.15% | -1.07% |
| 10/15/2025 9:05:27 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +4.55% | -2.28% |
| 10/15/2025 8:00:24 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +4.55% | -2.28% |
| 10/15/2025 5:49:02 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.33% | +0.16% |
| 10/15/2025 1:03:55 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -0.33% | +0.49% |
| 10/15/2025 12:59:00 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -0.33% | +0.49% |
| 10/14/2025 11:49:39 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +0.53% |
| 10/14/2025 10:05:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.48% | +0.74% |
| 10/14/2025 9:31:14 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.06% | -0.53% |
| 10/14/2025 9:15:03 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +0.53% |
| 10/14/2025 7:56:12 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +0.53% |
| 10/3/2025 6:45:12 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -3.96% | -1.98% |
| 10/3/2025 5:48:20 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -3.96% | +1.98% |
| 10/3/2025 5:24:31 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -3.96% | +1.98% |
| 9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.36% | -0.68% |
| 9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.36% | -0.68% |
| 9/25/2025 9:08:46 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.04% | +2.52% |
| 9/25/2025 6:06:52 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.04% | +2.52% |
| 9/25/2025 4:23:00 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.04% | +2.52% |
| 9/25/2025 2:39:06 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.93% | +0.97% |
| 9/23/2025 8:17:55 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.14% | +0.07% |
| 9/23/2025 4:45:06 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.14% | +0.07% |
| 9/22/2025 10:12:27 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.51% | -0.25% |
| 9/22/2025 7:01:00 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.51% | -0.25% |
| 9/19/2025 7:19:43 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.05% | +0.02% |
| 9/19/2025 3:30:59 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.05% | +0.02% |
| 9/18/2025 2:13:16 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.19% | -0.10% |
| 9/18/2025 2:00:01 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.22% | -0.11% |
| 9/17/2025 11:14:58 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.61% | +0.30% |
| 9/17/2025 10:48:21 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/17/2025 10:45:01 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/17/2025 10:16:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/17/2025 10:12:22 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.61% | -0.30% |
| 9/17/2025 10:09:39 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/17/2025 10:03:46 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/17/2025 10:00:17 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.39% |
| 9/16/2025 3:38:44 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.64% | -0.82% |
| 9/16/2025 3:30:44 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.64% | -1.64% |
| 9/15/2025 4:08:28 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +2.91% | -2.91% |
| 9/12/2025 2:49:43 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +2.70% | -1.35% |
| 9/10/2025 2:40:48 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 9/4/2025 5:58:21 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.10% | +1.05% |
| 9/3/2025 5:47:14 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.69% | +0.35% |
| 9/3/2025 5:46:57 PM | medium term sharp down | 20 days later | -0.69% | +1.04% |
| 9/3/2025 4:33:59 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.44% | +2.44% |
| 9/3/2025 4:33:52 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.44% | +1.22% |
| 8/29/2025 4:29:23 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | -5.40% | -2.70% |
| 8/29/2025 2:20:50 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +2.70% |
| 8/29/2025 2:11:04 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +2.70% |
| 8/29/2025 10:48:16 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +2.70% |
| 8/29/2025 10:10:30 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +5.40% |
| 8/29/2025 2:27:21 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +2.70% |
| 8/27/2025 5:54:14 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.11% | +1.56% |
| 8/27/2025 4:26:23 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.11% | +1.56% |
| 8/26/2025 6:50:08 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -5.00% | -2.50% |
| 8/26/2025 8:42:05 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/25/2025 5:57:59 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.26% | +2.63% |
| 8/25/2025 8:38:14 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +0.45% | -0.22% |
| 8/22/2025 11:32:42 PM | short term down | 8 days later | +0.05% | -0.05% |
| 8/22/2025 8:13:21 PM | short term cautious down | 8 days later | +0.05% | -0.02% |
| 8/20/2025 4:24:10 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.66% | -0.83% |
| 8/14/2025 11:48:29 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.74% | +0.37% |
| 8/12/2025 11:45:00 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/12/2025 11:24:12 PM | medium term sharp down | 20 days later | +0.92% | -1.38% |
| 8/12/2025 4:25:35 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/12/2025 7:46:47 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +2.43% | -1.22% |
| 8/7/2025 6:16:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.10% | +0.55% |
| 8/7/2025 5:34:00 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.82% | +0.91% |
| 8/5/2025 12:45:01 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.90% | -0.45% |
| 7/30/2025 11:06:39 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.47% | -0.73% |
| 7/30/2025 9:54:37 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.47% | -0.73% |
