Jennifer Welch analyzes the shifting leverage between the US and China ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, highlighting China's use of critical minerals as a trump card and the impact of the Iran war on bilateral relations. She notes the US is now more cautious due to China's demonstrated power over rare earths.
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Bloomberg
5.5
Financial Media
Jennifer Welch 8.5
Financial Media
Jennifer Welch 8.5
5/10/2026 10:55:12 PM
dxy
The dollar's role is discussed in the context of sanctions enforcement (Chinese banks choosing between US dollar system and Chinese law), but no clear directional view on DXY is given. Stability is implied.
metals
China's use of its grip over critical minerals to put the onus back on Washington... 4% of US GDP is implicated in rare earths, with 1.5% non-substitutable from China.
| 5/7/2026 7:02:33 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -5.66% | -2.83% |
| 5/7/2026 11:14:07 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -5.66% | -5.66% |
| 4/16/2026 5:48:30 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -3.17% | -3.17% |
| 3/21/2026 1:47:39 AM | long term down | 60 days later | +4.32% | -4.32% |
| 3/19/2026 10:26:26 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.41% | -2.41% |
| 3/19/2026 8:12:15 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | +2.41% | -3.62% |
| 3/4/2026 2:20:59 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +4.23% | -4.23% |
| 2/23/2026 10:19:28 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.23% | +3.23% |
| 2/20/2026 7:33:41 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +1.77% | -1.77% |
| 2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +2.46% | +2.46% |
| 2/12/2026 8:51:59 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.56% | +2.56% |
| 2/5/2026 9:56:02 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +4.73% | -4.73% |
| 2/3/2026 11:03:27 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +2.40% | +3.60% |
| 2/2/2026 8:50:45 PM | short term sharp down | 6 days later | +1.02% | -1.52% |
| 2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM | short term sharp down | 6 days later | +1.02% | -1.52% |
| 1/30/2026 2:30:29 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +6.99% | -6.99% |
| 1/29/2026 9:23:52 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +2.93% | +2.93% |
| 1/29/2026 9:18:07 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +2.93% | +4.40% |
| 1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -16.50% | -24.75% |
| 1/27/2026 5:40:35 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -21.17% | +10.58% |
| 1/26/2026 2:05:23 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -18.04% | +9.02% |
| 1/26/2026 10:56:46 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -18.04% | +9.02% |
| 1/26/2026 10:10:52 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -18.04% | -27.06% |
| 1/23/2026 10:16:13 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -16.21% | -16.21% |
| 1/21/2026 3:54:53 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +9.15% | +13.73% |
| 1/19/2026 10:27:54 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +9.93% | +14.89% |
| 1/15/2026 8:01:10 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.70% | +4.70% |
| 1/14/2026 9:49:21 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +2.92% | +4.38% |
| 1/14/2026 6:48:56 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.48% | +1.48% |
| 1/10/2026 2:50:05 AM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -2.27% | -1.14% |
| 12/24/2025 10:09:01 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -7.53% | -11.30% |
| 12/24/2025 8:43:44 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -7.53% | -7.53% |
| 12/24/2025 7:08:10 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -7.53% | -11.30% |
| 12/23/2025 7:24:06 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -1.80% | -2.71% |
| 12/22/2025 11:02:38 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +7.73% | -3.87% |
| 12/22/2025 9:48:16 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -2.16% | -2.16% |
| 12/19/2025 9:48:49 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.39% | +0.39% |
| 12/1/2025 1:30:08 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +10.54% | +10.54% |
| 11/24/2025 10:10:50 AM | long term up | 62 days later | +50.41% | +50.41% |
| 11/11/2025 3:01:41 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -4.54% | -6.81% |
| 11/11/2025 2:03:07 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.54% | -4.54% |
| 11/11/2025 10:07:03 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -4.54% | -6.81% |
| 11/10/2025 2:14:07 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -2.26% | -2.26% |
| 10/22/2025 11:01:29 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -3.73% | +5.60% |
| 10/22/2025 10:20:48 AM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -3.73% | +5.60% |
| 10/21/2025 9:16:26 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -3.09% | +1.55% |
| 10/20/2025 6:00:17 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -2.71% | -2.71% |
| 10/8/2025 9:39:08 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +4.31% | -2.16% |
| 10/8/2025 1:58:52 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +4.31% | +6.47% |
| 10/7/2025 5:54:39 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +2.72% | +4.07% |
| 10/2/2025 12:01:12 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.07% | +4.07% |
| 10/1/2025 10:25:13 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.05% | +4.58% |
| 10/1/2025 3:37:28 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.05% | +3.05% |
| 10/1/2025 8:12:58 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.05% | +4.58% |
| 9/29/2025 10:23:48 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +13.19% | +19.78% |
| 9/24/2025 12:53:15 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +2.86% | +4.29% |
| 9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +3.81% | +3.81% |
| 9/8/2025 11:19:17 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +2.35% | +3.53% |
| 9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +1.91% | +1.91% |
| 9/2/2025 8:43:37 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +1.32% | +1.98% |
| 8/18/2025 11:31:36 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +9.56% | +14.34% |
| 8/18/2025 11:10:24 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.94% | -1.94% |
| 8/14/2025 11:46:57 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.09% | -0.09% |
| 8/11/2025 9:25:03 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.16% | -0.16% |
| 8/11/2025 10:07:32 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -0.16% | +0.08% |
| 8/8/2025 8:23:48 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -0.25% | -0.38% |
ndx
The US maintains a lead in AI tools like Mythos, which gives leverage and focus on maintaining that advantage. This supports a cautious positive outlook for tech-heavy Nasdaq over the medium term.
rut
The potential for a stable summit outcome and continued trade truce supports small-cap stocks (Russell 2000) which are more domestically focused and benefit from reduced trade uncertainty.
wti
The Iran war and blockade of Hormuz are major friction points affecting oil supply. China's defiance of US sanctions on Iranian oil adds uncertainty, leading to short-term volatility in WTI.
yields
The discussion focuses on trade and geopolitical stability, with no explicit mention of bond yields. However, the expectation of a stable summit outcome suggests no major yield movements in the short term.
