yields

If the Fed cuts rates another 50 basis points over the next 3 to 6 months and you get a steeper yield curve, regional banks will see faster growth in net interest income than most expect.

metals

Central bank buying over the last three years (~1000 tons per year) and ongoing geopolitical tensions support continued price increases in gold. Gold is acting as a dedollarization tool and safe haven. Sustained central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and macroeconomic uncertainty support an upward medium-term metals outlook.

ndx

We are reducing risk at least in a portion of client portfolios given elevated valuations, market concentration, subdued volatility but watch correlations carefully. Due to concentrated equity exposure, near record valuations, and risk factors like trade tensions, investor risk management and hedging increase, implying cautious short-term outlook.

dxy

Dollar strengthening again today as Euro heads toward 116, but with some risk of squeeze given consensus positioning. Dollar rally is under test and probably short lived given macro dynamics.

metals

American rare earth miners up 20-25%, critical metals also strongly up amid concerns over China's export controls. Market expects continued geopolitical tensions over rare earths boosting US miner stocks.

ndx

Nasdaq 100 futures are rebounding strongly after Friday's 3.5% decline, with tech stocks like Nvidia leading gains. Investors are buying the dip in tech stocks amidst mixed market sentiment.

yields

We saw a 10 basis point decline across the yield curve on Friday. The bond market is closed today but the test comes when it reopens. Politics and trade talks are influencing yields now. Market caution due to geopolitical risk and trade tensions, with uncertainty about whether the recent decline in yields will persist.

ndx

We think technology is one of the best places to be with the best earnings growth in the world today. The earnings revisions for technology have been the best, and technology profits are driving stocks here. Earnings growth in technology, especially in the US, is strong and is the main driver of equity performance in the short term.

metals

gold is going up due to inflation risks still here, trade war coming back, Chinese households buying significant amounts of gold via ETFs, and central banks divesting from US treasuries and buying gold instead Strong demand for gold is driven by persistent inflation risks, geopolitical tensions, and price-insensitive buyers such as Chinese households and central banks increasing allocations to gold.

yields

there's more lift in inflation coming because of tariffs, lifting inflation because of the weaker dollar, if inflation is going up and we now start cutting too much, that of course raises the risk that the fed should not be talking about rate cuts, they should maybe even talk about rate hikes The market expects rate cuts from the dot plot, but the interviewee explicitly warns that inflation risks remain elevated due to tariffs and a weaker dollar, which could force the Fed to keep yields elevated or higher.

metals

Mark stated that gold was up 50% in the last year and is a great hedge against global and domestic risks, showing bullishness on metals over a medium term.

ndx

Mark mentioned concern that AI and tech stocks could revisit lows like in March if the China-US tensions continue, indicating a cautious down outlook for tech in the short term.

yields

I want to move towards cutting rates, but you're not going to do it aggressively and fast in case you make a big mistake; the market's priced in for sequential cuts through the end of the year; cautious enough for you going by quarter point.

wti

I mean, big move today in oil. I think it's reflecting a view in the market that this peace deal means that people can de-risk the Middle East, de-risk geopolitical turmoil for oil.

metals

Investors stampeding into gold, silver, and Bitcoin as part of the debasement trade; silver newly entering discussion with strong momentum; expectation of weakening US dollar supports metals. Amid economic uncertainty, currency debasement concerns drive strong inflows into precious metals in the short term as hedges.

yields

The Fed is likely to cut once more this year, possibly fewer cuts in December depending on incoming data, with risk management guiding policy given the lack of government data. The Fed is cautious, reactive to limited data, focused on labor market deterioration to decide on rate cuts; uncertainty and data dependency imply a cautious downward pressure on yields over the medium term.

ndx

Any dip in tech is met with buying. Investors gravitate back towards tech. Staying with profitable tech companies is key. Despite concerns, earnings growth is primarily in tech, so investors return to tech sector, indicating cautious upward direction in short term.

dxy

The dollar has its best week in about a year, up about 1.5%. Dollar rebound driven by weakness in euro and yen.

metals

Gold up about 50% year to date. Central banks like China and India are buying gold aggressively, showing strong demand which is driving prices higher.

wti

Oil prices are easing after the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.

yields

once you have a formal announcement of what the new target would be, we potentially would see further declines in the bond yield

metals

central banks increasing gold holdings; debasement trade and diversification driving metals; copper up nearly 25% year to date; supply disruptions in major mines; strong demand from AI, defense, and electrification creating a perfect storm; market deficit and potential for more upside.

wti

crude has been under pressure for over a year; large supply glut has not impacted prices; physical markets remain tight; refining margins near all-time highs; oil inventories unlikely to increase as economics favor burning, not storing oil.

yields

Fed Governor Michael Barr emphasized a cautious approach to adjusting policy, highlighting uncertainty and risks to price stability. The cautious stance indicates no clear directional bias on yields but a careful monitoring of inflation, labor market softness, and economic data suggests yields may not move sharply in either direction in the near to medium term.

metals

We upgrade our silver forecast to $55 an ounce and said as we get up to 4000, we think silver is going to really start to outperform. And I think we're just seeing the early signs of that. Silver is a growth commodity with strong industrial and investor demand, supportive of price increases over the next weeks.

ndx

WE'RE LOOKING FOR, SAIRA, ABOUT 7%, 8% IN THE THIRD QUARTER... COMPANIES CAN BEAT EARNINGS AGAIN, PROBABLY PRINT IN THE LOW DOUBLE DIGITS... THE LEADER IS GOING TO BE TECH STOCKS... TECH HAS BEEN THE DRIVER OF U.S. EQUITIES FOR MANY YEARS NOW... THE ODDS ARE IN YOUR FAVOR FOR THIS RALLY TO CONTINUE

yields

We think short term interest rates are going to fall. Probably two more fed rate cuts this year, two more rate cuts next year. The short end of the yield curve is falling while the long end is steady or rising, leading to a steepening curve and signaling cautious downtrend in yields over medium term.

metals

I think people are looking for an alternative and getting a little too greedy at 4000. Historically, when gold gets this stretched, you should be cautious rather than greedy.

metals

Gold is having its moment. More central banks globally are buying it. The dollar has been softening. There is this overhang of fiscal debt in the US that also supports the gold trade.

dxy

the overall weakening dollar... dollar has been strengthening recently in days but in general this year it has weakened a fair amount

metals

gold has been a huge beneficiary of that... real interest rates have come down. And that typically is a big support for gold prices

yields

the expectations that the fed is going to continue to ease here

metals

Gold prices climbed to about $4,000 an ounce for the first time ever; metals including copper massively outperformed; central banks diversifying into gold; gold is an excellent diversifier and safe haven asset.

metals

Ray Dalio explicitly states that gold is a strong diversifier and is performing well amid monetary and debt issues and compares current gold price moves to those in the early seventies, confirming gold (a metal) is sharply up in the short term.

yields

The interviewee expressed caution about cutting rates given the imbalances in debt and monetary policy's limited effectiveness, suggesting a cautious downtrend for yields.

metals

Gold is at record highs... It's a life of its own, gold... central banks around the world... view gold as a safe harbor asset in a way that the dollar used to be viewed.

metals

Gold is at record highs, up 50% since the start of the year, Goldman Sachs raised its gold forecast to $4900 by December next year; interviewees note substantial asset inflation away from the dollar including gold acting as a safe haven asset

yields

We have seen of course in response to some of this longer term bond yields globally. I mean you're just coming into this week they were moving to the upside.

dxy

It means part of the reason the dollar's depreciated by about 10% in the first half of this year.

yields

We anticipate that there's probably two more cuts this year. ... We also think that they'll cut into 2026 as well. So the trajectory is for continued lower fed funds rate into 2026.

ndx

Today's weakness has brought us down to 6700, and if we can't hold certain levels, traders might pull money out leading to further downside. Bears are feeling energized by more than half a session of selling, indicating increased selling pressure and potential for declines.

metals

Gold is at record highs and is viewed as a safe harbor asset now, indicating rising metal prices.

ndx

We're forecasting about a 4% beat for the upcoming earnings season. ... Hence our target of 7200 by year end next year.

yields

it's a very pro inflationary environment and I think the markets are just way too calm about the prospects of a substantial move higher inflation

metals

Gold rising of 10% to 4300 by the end of next year with significant upside driven by central bank and ETF inflows; central banks remain underweight gold and are expected to continue rapid purchases for about three years; lower rates boost ETF holdings in gold markets.

wti

we have been bearish for a while ... we think we're probably get down to $60–61 a barrel on average for the quarter

metals

Gold has been relentless and strong, with gold and silver both in uptrends and bullish;

yields

I think that's more what the markets are reacting to than the government shutdown. The shutdown probably makes it somewhat more likely that the fed, without really good data and worried about a labor market and the ADP report was pretty weak. It's probably an environment where the fed would probably ease by another 25 basis points.

ndx

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says that the US economy will accelerate next year as the tech spending picks up

yields

This uptick of inflation that we've been seeing coupled with the jobs payroll jobs numbers deteriorating have put the central bank in a bit of a sticky spot where you're getting deterioration of both sides of the mandate at the same time. If the inflation looks like it's going to be transitory, and I say that word with with with some fear, then I think the employment side of the mandate would be dominant.

ndx

Chris said that the fourth quarter tends to be pretty good from mid-October forward, and the leadership in the market has been pro-cyclical, with no change of the leadership fabric to worry for the rest of the year.

yields

My view is that policy, even though financial conditions appear to be on some measures loose, policy has actually grown tighter because neutral has migrated down.

yields

My concept is zero. I usually do a weighted average. It comes to about a half and that is consistent with what I put on the summary of economic projections.

ndx

SO I THINK OVERALL, IF YOU LOOK AT THE GLOBAL BACKDROP... WE STILL BELIEVE IN TECH...

yields

I think fed cutting rates is positive for fixed income. Yields are very attractive here. Fed easing cycle with expected rate cuts generally leads to lower yields; emphasis on credit over duration suggests caution on duration exposure but overall yields expected to decline.

ndx

No explicit forecast of cautious down or medium-term direction was made; discussion centered on bubble risks and valuation concerns without direct directional guidance. The interviewee indicated concerns about overvaluation and bubble risk in AI-related stocks within the Nasdaq 100 complex, suggesting possible caution, but did not explicitly forecast a cautious down trend in the medium term.

wti

We had a rally one week before the OPEC meeting... Now we have another sell off going into an OPEC meeting over the weekend.

ndx

At 22.8 times P/E, some of the highest since the late 90s, valuations are extended and any disappointment could be penalized; however, the transformative potential of AI and earnings beats from mega-cap tech companies support cautious optimism in equities.

yields

I think we're going to see 25 basis point cuts at the next 3 to 4 meetings, which will take us to a three, three and a half zone for the policy rate