explicit
implicit
RUT
inferred
inferred
implicit
inflation cautious down
Federal Reserve
9.0
Central Bank
Loretta Mester 7.0
Central Bank
Loretta Mester 7.0
10/27/2025 1:59:40 PM
yields
The CPI report for September is not going to dissuade the Fed from cutting 25 basis points at the meeting. They will take another insurance cut but inflation risks are still to the upside, so the Fed will keep policy a bit restrictive. Employment is weakening with downside risk, supporting a cautious rate cut.
Given cooler CPI but inflation still above target, and weakening employment plus government shutdown effects, the Fed is likely to cut rates cautiously in the short term but stay vigilant about inflation risks.
| 10/24/2025 8:55:32 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +3.40% | -1.70% |
| 10/16/2025 6:04:41 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.35% | +0.67% |
| 10/16/2025 4:52:44 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.15% | -1.07% |
| 10/16/2025 4:01:47 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.15% | -1.07% |
| 10/15/2025 9:05:27 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +4.55% | -2.28% |
| 10/15/2025 8:00:24 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +4.55% | -2.28% |
| 10/15/2025 5:49:02 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.33% | +0.16% |
| 10/15/2025 1:03:55 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -0.33% | +0.49% |
| 10/15/2025 12:59:00 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -0.33% | +0.49% |
| 10/14/2025 11:49:39 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +0.53% |
| 10/14/2025 10:05:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.48% | +0.74% |
| 10/14/2025 9:31:14 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.06% | -0.53% |
| 10/14/2025 9:15:03 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +0.53% |
| 10/14/2025 7:56:12 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +0.53% |
| 10/10/2025 6:15:07 PM | medium term cautious down | 22 days later | +1.36% | -0.68% |
| 10/3/2025 6:45:12 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -3.96% | -1.98% |
| 10/3/2025 5:48:20 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -3.96% | +1.98% |
| 10/3/2025 5:24:31 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -3.96% | +1.98% |
| 9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.36% | -0.68% |
| 9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.36% | -0.68% |
| 9/29/2025 4:51:12 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -3.91% | -1.95% |
| 9/26/2025 3:41:14 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.24% | +1.62% |
| 9/26/2025 7:55:36 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.24% | +1.62% |
| 9/25/2025 9:08:46 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.04% | +2.52% |
| 9/25/2025 6:06:52 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.04% | +2.52% |
| 9/25/2025 4:23:00 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.04% | +2.52% |
| 9/25/2025 2:39:06 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.93% | +0.97% |
| 9/23/2025 8:17:55 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.14% | +0.07% |
| 9/23/2025 4:45:06 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.14% | +0.07% |
| 9/23/2025 4:21:15 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.01% | +1.51% |
| 9/22/2025 10:12:27 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.51% | -0.25% |
| 9/22/2025 7:01:00 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.51% | -0.25% |
| 9/19/2025 7:19:43 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.05% | +0.02% |
| 9/19/2025 5:36:26 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -2.22% | -1.11% |
| 9/19/2025 4:18:23 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -2.22% | +1.11% |
| 9/19/2025 4:05:04 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -2.22% | +1.11% |
| 9/19/2025 3:30:59 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.05% | +0.02% |
| 9/18/2025 11:18:42 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.22% | -0.11% |
| 9/18/2025 2:13:16 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.19% | -0.10% |
| 9/18/2025 2:00:01 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.22% | -0.11% |
| 9/17/2025 11:14:58 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.61% | +0.30% |
| 9/17/2025 10:48:21 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/17/2025 10:45:01 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/17/2025 10:16:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/17/2025 10:12:22 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.61% | -0.30% |
| 9/17/2025 10:09:39 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/17/2025 10:03:46 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/17/2025 10:00:17 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.39% |
| 9/16/2025 3:38:44 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.64% | -0.82% |
| 9/16/2025 3:30:44 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.64% | -1.64% |
| 9/15/2025 4:08:28 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +2.91% | -2.91% |
| 9/12/2025 2:49:43 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +2.70% | -1.35% |
| 9/10/2025 2:40:48 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 9/8/2025 3:31:50 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -0.98% | +0.49% |
| 9/4/2025 5:58:21 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.10% | +1.05% |
| 9/3/2025 5:47:14 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.69% | +0.35% |
| 9/3/2025 5:46:57 PM | medium term sharp down | 20 days later | -0.69% | +1.04% |
| 9/3/2025 4:33:59 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.44% | +2.44% |
| 9/3/2025 4:33:52 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.44% | +1.22% |
| 8/29/2025 4:29:23 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | -5.40% | -2.70% |
| 8/29/2025 2:20:50 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +2.70% |
| 8/29/2025 2:11:04 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +2.70% |
| 8/29/2025 10:48:16 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +2.70% |
| 8/29/2025 10:10:30 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +5.40% |
| 8/29/2025 2:27:21 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +2.70% |
| 8/28/2025 2:23:04 PM | long term up | 60 days later | -5.77% | -5.77% |
| 8/27/2025 5:54:14 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.11% | +1.56% |
| 8/27/2025 4:26:23 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.11% | +1.56% |
| 8/26/2025 6:50:08 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -5.00% | -2.50% |
| 8/26/2025 8:42:05 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/25/2025 5:57:59 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.26% | +2.63% |
| 8/25/2025 8:38:14 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +0.45% | -0.22% |
| 8/22/2025 11:32:42 PM | short term down | 8 days later | +0.05% | -0.05% |
| 8/22/2025 9:51:01 PM | short term cautious down | 8 days later | +0.05% | -0.02% |
| 8/22/2025 8:49:41 PM | short term cautious down | 8 days later | +0.05% | -0.02% |
| 8/22/2025 8:13:21 PM | short term cautious down | 8 days later | +0.05% | -0.02% |
| 8/20/2025 4:24:10 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.66% | -0.83% |
| 8/15/2025 8:22:39 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -6.80% | -3.40% |
| 8/15/2025 4:22:33 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -6.80% | -3.40% |
| 8/14/2025 11:48:29 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.74% | +0.37% |
| 8/14/2025 6:32:32 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -3.51% | -1.76% |
| 8/12/2025 11:45:00 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/12/2025 11:24:12 PM | medium term sharp down | 20 days later | +0.92% | -1.38% |
| 8/12/2025 4:25:35 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/12/2025 7:46:47 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +2.43% | -1.22% |
| 8/7/2025 7:17:58 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.82% | +0.91% |
| 8/7/2025 6:16:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.10% | +0.55% |
| 8/7/2025 5:34:00 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.82% | +0.91% |
| 8/6/2025 4:32:08 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.14% | +0.07% |
| 8/6/2025 4:30:01 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.14% | +0.07% |
| 7/30/2025 11:06:39 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.47% | -0.73% |
| 7/30/2025 9:54:37 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.47% | -0.73% |
