dxy

We do have this general expectation that dollar probably does weaken... our long-term projection continues to be around 1.26 [for EUR/USD]. Administration wants weaker dollar, but near-term safe-haven flows provide support during 'hot conflict'. Expects Euro-dollar range 1.16-1.20s near-term, moving to 1.26 long-term.

wti

We happen to have in terms of our kind of more bearish 6-12 month view on oil... that transition leads to the first leg lower in prices, perhaps around a month's time... and then the Next leg lower comes on the basis of peace deals... Ukraine Peace still happens towards the end of the summer. Layton explicitly outlines a two-phase bearish view for the medium term (6-12 months), contingent on conflict de-escalation and geopolitical resolutions. The direction is 'down' (not 'cautious down') as he presents it as Citi's 'baseline view' and core forecast for H2.

metals

We actually expect it to rise to $100 again over the course of this year. Based on CPM Group's analysis combining macroeconomic factors, supply/demand fundamentals, and technical analysis, with current price around $88-$90 driven by financial investor demand for protection against economic problems.

wti

This was a well-telegraphed geopolitical event. The crude market had already moved substantially over the past two months. The move we saw on Monday wasn't even in the top 50 moves in crude... The crude markets are very well supplied. Bessent argues the oil price spike was pre-priced and current supply is ample, suggesting near-term price pressure is limited despite geopolitical events.

wti

If the war with Iran is short and oil goes to 80, 90, 100, it would probably have a major effect. Explicitly states a scenario where oil prices rise sharply to $80-100 due to the conflict.

metals

by the end of the decade, I'm saying gold's going to be 10,000... I still say 10,000 by the end of the decade. Acknowledges a massive run has occurred and gold needs to digest/grind sideways in the short term, but maintains a long-term secular bull market thesis.

ndx

Strong advocacy to rotate capital into 'technology AI trade' and 'mag 7' as they have been 'hammered' and represent value. Sees S&P 500 reaching 8,000 driven by tech, indicating bullish NDX outlook.

wti

I think a temporary spike... oil's only up 6%... this is just a short-term blip. Views the geopolitical-driven surge as a transient event, not a sustained inflationary shock. Advises hedging at current high prices, expecting them to come down.

dxy

we're having a strengthening of the dollar Contrary to consensus view dollar would weaken this year

wti

this war with Iran... oil goes to 80 or 90 or 100, but it is a short and not prolonged.

wti

this right now will increase gas prices a little bit Dimon explicitly says Iran events will increase gas/oil prices in short term, but only sustained if conflict prolongs.

yields

yields which are elevated Cited as reason credit is 'asset class of the moment' and driving inflows

yields

we will mostly trade in the range of 4 to 4.5 Based on bond market shift from growth/flight-to-quality concerns to inflation concerns, with 10-year up 10bps after ISM data, but range-bound unless financial instability emerges.

ndx

I would expect to see continued volatility on an intraday basis. While not giving a pure price direction, she explicitly forecasts continued intraday volatility. This is a 'volatile' directional call for the short term. Her emphasis on severe underlying weakness (avg member down >25%) supports a fragile, churning environment.

wti

I would not fade this current spike... I would be careful fading it because it starts to become much more serious... this is going to be a structural repricing... the risks are to the upside. Geopolitical risks from Iranian proxies create protracted supply disruption risks; hoarding by China/India increases demand; OPEC capacity constraints limit supply response; two-supply-chain world requires higher inventories.

yields

We now have the lowest mortgage rates in over 3 years, they're under six percent. and then 10 UtreasureCarct the 4% level. And so that's very, very bullish. So as rates come down, it will cause the Fed to cut. Falling goods prices (deflationary) recognized by bond market as bullish, leading to lower yields. Expects Fed cuts to follow.

metals

gold geopolitical premium has a lot of risk of heading back lower as we had deeper into training this coming week. Gold is extremely stretched versus historical metrics (60-month moving average, vs crude oil), and easing geopolitical tensions could reduce its risk premium.

wti

I'm fully expecting, come Monday, Kudau [crude] will probably be lower. Expects OPEC+ coordinated production increase, Trump election motivation for lower energy prices, and post-invasion relief to pressure prices.

yields

The path of least resistance seems to be towards lower yields... The concern seems to me towards low yields... the safe haven bid is going to come into the back end of the yield curve. Cites risk-off sentiment, geopolitical concerns, AI disruption fears, and market positioning (call/put skews) pointing to lower yields, despite acknowledging sticky inflation and a strong economy.

ndx

We've cut our long-term estimate on the multiple for the market from 22 to 20... We're probably in a kind of single digit return market here, not a double digit return market. Auth explicitly cuts valuation multiple for the market (which is heavily tech-weighted) and forecasts single-digit returns, implying downward pressure on NDX. He highlights Mag7 losing free cash flow premium and software facing margin pressure from AI competition, directly negative for tech-heavy NDX.

yields

I think the Fed needs to cut the rate. His call for Fed rate cuts is directly tied to his macro thesis of needing to 'run a hotter economy' to manage debt and stabilize the dollar, implying he expects lower policy rates and, by extension, lower yields.

yields

What is happening is more of a steepening of global yield curves through the longer end of the curve rising... Real rates are rising because of excess supply of government debt globally and because of increased productivity. This is a healthy steepening of the global yield curve. The interviewee explicitly describes the yield curve steepening due to the long end rising, driven by real rates. The tone is positive ('healthy'), indicating an expectation for yields to move higher, but the context of a 'Goldilocks' scenario and a 'holding pattern' for central banks suggests a measured, 'cautious' upward move.

wti

there will be an immediate reaction to the market and it will be significant. So the risk premium will go up quite substantially. Strait of Hormuz handles 20M barrels/day with limited alternatives; any closure would create immediate supply disruption fears.

dxy

It's not good for the dollar on the surface but that's mainly a cyclical factor talking about the growth decline. Acknowledged dollar is down and benefiting other currencies, attributing it to cyclical growth factors rather than secular trend.

dxy

I think the dollar's been falling... and I'm in the camp that the dollar could continue to fall... the dollar could go down for a little while more. A weaker dollar benefits US exports and manufacturing, aligning with political goals. Dismisses catastrophic 'debasement' narratives.

ndx

I think there is a big rotation and that rotation is away from software and some tech... The software companies are being hurt. It's their growth models are changing. AI is collapsing the cost of software, directly challenging the pricing power and growth models of major tech/software companies that dominate the NDX.

wti

That's why I think that there is go... that we've seen the price of oil going up... if there is going to be a regime change that there's going to be big disruption in the oil markets right away. Geopolitical risk from potential US kinetic response/regime change in Iran threatens disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint.

yields

I don't think the Fed should cut rates anymore. Whether they should hike rates, I'm not ready to go there, but let's just start with they should not cut rates anymore. Argues for a 'higher for longer' rate environment in a post-COVID economy with stickier inflation. His 5% bond return expectation implies rates stabilize at elevated levels, not trending down.

metals

look at asset classes like gold, silver... which give you that protection Explicitly recommends gold and silver as diversifiers for protection in the current environment, implying a positive outlook.

metals

Supply is unable to respond in the short term, and we're seeing this price appreciation. So we're going to see margin growth across a lot of companies... We are only really in the first innings of what could be a very exciting commodity cycle. Demand from AI infrastructure is a massive new source meeting a supply side constrained by years of underinvestment.

metals

We like base metals actually in terms of aluminum and copper, given the continued investment in AI and infrastructure. Bullish on industrial/base metals due to structural investment themes.

ndx

Bullish S&P 500 target (7700) is driven by AI/innovation productivity thesis, which disproportionately benefits tech-heavy NDX. Expects market broadening but core premise is tech-driven productivity.

metals

Gold (analog) going up on these four, five month charts... I think we're going to break back above it [$5,000]... I think 6,000 is more realistic than 4,000. Positioned as the winning side of the 'analog vs software' pair trade, with materials/metals mining cited as a group that's 'doing just fine' and 'working'.

ndx

The NASDAQ, for example, peaked on October 29th and has been... dead money to slightly down ever since. Described as 'ice cold' and part of the 'software' side of the analog vs software pair trade that is rolling over.

rut

Pull up a chart of the Russell 2000, which is the small cap index, things are doing just fine. Contradicts the perception of market ugliness and aligns with his view of a 'big broad bull market'.

yields

In the long term I would be a little bit cautious about this rally in the 10 year, particularly as we get down to 4%. He is commenting on the current rally, expressing caution about its sustainability at these levels, implying a near-term downward direction for yields is overdone.

ndx

This is a market... defined by three words: volatility, dispersion... you can see lot more dispersion and fragmentation Transition from AI hype to reality, market for lemons theory causing overshoots, need for bottom-up stock picking rather than sector-wide buying

yields

Yeah, I think we'll see it going back towards four, four and a half... So I think we are in a range for 4 to 450, with the average being closer to 450 than it is to four Administration worried about mortgage affordability may lead to yield curve control

dxy

Fundamentals rates differentials would point to a firmer dollar... It was relatively short lived after Liberation Day and then did return more to where a model would suggest... question is... will it return to fundamentals which would point to a firmer or at least sit with that rangebound dollar.

yields

We wouldn't expect three; still in line with one. Expects only one Fed cut, implying yields may drift lower but not sharply, given still-strong labor market and inflation seasonality.

yields

We don't really think this trend is going to continue to see the 10-year yield move meaningfully lower, say below 4%, maybe to get down to that 3-3-4% area... all of those factors should keep yields elevated. Near-term reaction is down (4.06%), but medium-term view is rangebound/sideways due to: 1) No expected recession/slowdown, 2) Inflation still elevated, 3) Debt supply concerns, 4) Global yield competition.

metals

"I think the risk is that it's going to roll over." (on industrial metals); "I think gold's run most of its course and it's just very, it's too risky to be long at here"; "I think this is going to be a down year for silver"; "I still view it as a prudent short." (on silver) Thesis is based on: 1) High correlation with a potentially peaking S&P 500. 2) Prices are historically stretched (aluminum >3000, gold vs. 60-mo MA, silver at record ratios). 3) Demand concerns from China (deflation, speculation crackdowns). 4) The universal commodity rule: 'up too much' leads to a shift down.

yields

If core inflation is running around 2.5%, that's basically at the Fed's target. They can reduce policy rates from a slightly restrictive stance. Hollenhorst expects disinflation to continue, giving the Fed room to cut rates, which would put downward pressure on yields over the medium term.

yields

I still think that we can see 3.5% in the 10-year later on in the year. Expects four Fed cuts starting in June, back-end loaded, due to more anticipatory Fed stance under Waller.

dxy

That could also contribute to further dollar strength. Reasoning provided: Strong US economy, sticky inflation from tariffs, Fed likely to stay put, all contributing to dollar strength.

dxy

the dollar may still be on a weakening path Part of three themes for 2026; dollar weakness provides tailwind for Asia assets

metals

the FOMO over the last two months has been anywhere but stocks. It's been in gold and silver and you see what's happened in the gold and silver in the last several weeks. Describes recent FOMO-driven surge in metals, indicating upward price action has already occurred and is characterizing recent market behavior.

yields

how incredibly sedate U.S. 10-year yields have been when the rest of the world's yields have been exploding higher for months and months now Expresses surprise at lack of movement in US yields compared to global trend, implying expectation of continued calm/sideways action in near term.

metals

We think so... There is a strong push... every government wants to take advantage of that 'just in case' trend... they're just trying to push the price higher. Cites government stockpiling (e.g., US Project Vault), supply restrictions (Indonesia nickel quotas), and strong price action in copper and aluminum.

wti

We still expect... for prices to revert back to around $60 a barrel on Brent. Fundamentals are weak with a 2 million bpd surplus; current strength is geopolitical. OPEC will bring back supply if price stays above $70.

metals

'$10,000 gold, $15,000 gold, $20,000 gold'; 'gold is going to run the deficits...'; 'gold over long-term treasuries until the dollar is appropriately priced relative to gold' Gold is framed as the solution to the global sovereign debt bubble and the mechanism to settle US trade deficits. The price targets are orders of magnitude above current levels, indicating a 'sharp up' long-term view.

ndx

Warns of a 'whoosh down' for assets globally, potentially led by Bitcoin, in the first half of the year, linked to Japanese bond market contagion. This implies broad risk-off including tech/NDX. Also notes stocks will go up in dollars but down in gold terms over the cycle.

yields

A Fed-Treasury accord where we talk about potentially less Fed buying at the long end, all of that is a higher yield. For me, it still is a duration neutral and potentially steeper curve type of discussion. His thesis is based on a regime change and a shift in Fed/Treasury dynamics reducing demand for long-dated Treasuries.

dxy

Asia should benefit from structural weakness of US dollar as well.

ndx

as overall transformative technology we don't think AI is a bubble... to unlock AI's revolutionary productivity potential we still have a long way to go. The view is fundamentally bullish on the AI-driven transformation, which underpins the NDX, but cautions about froth in the 'Magnificent Seven' conduit, advocating for diversification within the theme.

yields

at a longer end of the curve, the fiscal concerns remains very pertinent. And we have a curve steepening trade as one of our focal point for as allocation this year.

metals

Metals and mining up 25%... All of the old economy is substantially under invested. Copper back at $13k indicates structural shortage. Hyperscaler investment in data centers requires copper for grid, driving demand. Part of broader 'revenge of the old economy' rotation.

wti

Lots of upside here. Argues no real glut, markets structurally short and underinvested, geopolitical risk and hoarding behavior, policy-driven demand will keep markets tight.

dxy

should not get carried away by short term variations of the exchange rate of the dollar... I don't see a change in the role of the dollar in any time soon. Acknowledges dollar goes up and down, but its structural dominance is unchallenged. This implies no strong directional view, but stability in its role, translating to a rangebound/stable medium-term outlook for the index itself.

metals

All these markets are structurally short. ...we're back above $13,000 a ton again, which is an indication that this market is structurally short. ...Metals and mining is up 25%. Part of the broader 'old economy' supercycle thesis. Copper cited as example of structural shortage. Demand from AI infrastructure (grids, transformers) will create massive pull.

ndx

Nasdaq is down 9%. ...it's a rotation out of the new economy tech or asset light into the old economy... We gotta be rotating capital out of the new economy into the old economy. Explicitly states Nasdaq is down as part of a capital rotation. Framed as a structural shift from asset-light tech to asset-heavy commodities, implying continued relative or absolute weakness.

wti

I think there's a lot of upside here. ...these markets...are substantially underinvested. ...policy driven demand that will likely continue to keep these markets tight. Dismisses glut narrative, points to inventory draws, unwind of large short, structural underinvestment, and geopolitical/hoarding demand as drivers for higher prices.