PCE and related economic prints will reprice Fed hike probabilities (CME FedWatch), which should lift Treasury yields and the dollar if prints are hot. Higher yields/dollar would pressure precious metals; conversely, softer PCE would relieve rate risk and support gold. Recent ETF outflows and a technical sell-off produced a bounce/dip-buying around $4,000, leaving gold rangebound until clearer inflation signals arrive.

implicit
NDX
RUT
Oil

inferred

implicit
gold rangebound
Blue Line Futures 7.5
Hedge Fund
Phillip Streible 6.0
Gold Finds an Anchor at $4,000! Will PCE Change Everything?
XAU; PCE
6/25/2026 6:22:08 PM
dxy
The interviewee explicitly says the dollar index will move on the data. With expected rate hikes, the dollar is likely to strengthen if data is hot.
metals
August gold contract just slightly below the $4,000 mark, down about $11, but really anchored on either side of it, $25 above in the overnight session, $25 below.
134 calls
+3
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
6/17/2026 2:15:24 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.38% -1.19%
6/16/2026 7:09:38 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -4.30% -2.15%
6/15/2026 7:26:52 PM short term up 6 days later -3.80% -3.80%
6/15/2026 2:10:51 PM short term up 6 days later -3.80% -3.80%
6/12/2026 11:02:19 PM short term up 7 days later -3.62% -3.62%
6/12/2026 4:37:45 PM short term up 7 days later -3.62% -3.62%
6/12/2026 2:14:01 PM short term up 7 days later -3.62% -3.62%
6/11/2026 2:08:47 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +3.56% +1.78%
6/10/2026 5:49:09 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +6.18% -3.09%
6/5/2026 9:53:37 PM short term down 7 days later +0.29% -0.29%
6/5/2026 8:22:33 PM short term down 7 days later +0.29% -0.29%
6/3/2026 6:28:49 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -5.22% +2.61%
6/3/2026 2:08:27 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -5.22% +2.61%
6/2/2026 6:22:15 PM short term up 5 days later -2.72% -2.72%
6/1/2026 5:29:41 PM short term sharp up 6 days later -4.08% -6.12%
5/28/2026 6:20:00 PM short term down 5 days later -2.73% +2.73%
5/28/2026 2:12:37 PM short term down 5 days later -2.73% +2.73%
5/27/2026 8:38:49 PM short term down 5 days later -0.18% +0.18%
5/26/2026 8:03:19 PM short term up 5 days later +0.49% +0.49%
5/26/2026 1:55:39 PM short term up 5 days later +0.49% +0.49%
5/22/2026 6:20:20 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.78% +1.16%
5/21/2026 1:58:28 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.43% +0.71%
5/19/2026 2:01:35 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.25% +0.12%
5/18/2026 4:59:16 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +0.30% +0.15%
5/15/2026 5:59:29 PM short term sharp down 6 days later -0.88% +1.32%
5/14/2026 6:12:33 PM short term down 5 days later -0.70% +0.70%
5/14/2026 1:53:21 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.70% +0.35%
5/13/2026 1:45:31 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -4.02% -6.03%
5/12/2026 6:00:05 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -3.70% -5.55%
5/11/2026 4:58:00 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -3.01% +1.50%
5/11/2026 2:01:27 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -3.01% +1.50%
5/8/2026 7:12:41 PM short term sharp up 7 days later -3.85% -5.77%
5/8/2026 2:01:51 PM short term sharp up 7 days later -3.85% -5.77%
5/7/2026 1:56:51 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.10% +0.15%
5/6/2026 2:05:14 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.30% -0.45%
5/5/2026 2:13:50 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +0.88% +0.44%
5/4/2026 2:08:49 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +3.77% -1.88%
5/1/2026 2:11:55 PM short term down 7 days later +4.65% -4.65%
4/30/2026 2:13:23 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.17% +1.76%
4/29/2026 2:22:08 PM short term down 5 days later -1.25% +1.25%
4/24/2026 2:18:16 PM short term cautious down 7 days later -3.14% +1.57%
4/20/2026 2:18:07 PM short term cautious up 6 days later -0.69% -0.35%
4/16/2026 10:24:59 PM medium term up 20 days later -3.31% -3.31%
4/14/2026 2:08:46 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.01% -0.01%
4/1/2026 2:12:55 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.11% -0.16%
3/30/2026 2:13:18 PM short term up 6 days later +0.19% +0.19%
3/26/2026 1:05:27 PM short term down 5 days later +6.43% -6.43%
3/25/2026 1:10:36 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +6.36% +9.54%
3/23/2026 1:14:06 PM short term sharp down 6 days later +2.62% -3.94%
3/20/2026 1:23:19 PM medium term up 21 days later +7.98% +7.98%
3/19/2026 5:20:35 PM short term down 5 days later -0.51% +0.51%
3/18/2026 1:13:58 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -4.17% +2.08%
3/16/2026 1:23:55 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -12.00% +6.00%
3/10/2026 1:03:21 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -3.43% -1.71%
3/4/2026 1:58:21 PM short term up 5 days later +3.36% +3.36%
3/3/2026 2:19:16 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.48% +0.24%
3/2/2026 2:15:55 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.84% +1.26%
2/25/2026 11:43:15 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -1.83% -2.75%
2/25/2026 2:15:06 PM short term up 5 days later -1.83% -1.83%
2/24/2026 2:02:50 PM short term up 5 days later +1.32% +1.32%
2/23/2026 2:01:27 PM short term up 6 days later +2.61% +2.61%
2/17/2026 2:09:29 PM short term down 5 days later +4.18% -4.18%
2/16/2026 3:07:19 PM short term up 6 days later +6.64% +6.64%
2/12/2026 2:35:02 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.44% -0.67%
2/11/2026 2:40:37 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.72% -1.08%
2/10/2026 10:04:22 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later +0.26% +0.40%
2/9/2026 2:13:26 PM short term sharp up 6 days later +0.04% +0.06%
2/4/2026 2:35:05 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +2.83% +4.25%
2/3/2026 1:56:20 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +2.28% +3.42%
2/2/2026 6:29:20 PM short term sharp down 6 days later +2.47% -3.71%
1/30/2026 2:05:52 PM short term down 7 days later +8.54% -8.54%
1/28/2026 2:08:44 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -8.60% -12.91%
1/26/2026 2:15:07 PM short term sharp up 6 days later -9.60% -14.40%
1/23/2026 10:16:00 PM medium term up 21 days later -4.20% -4.20%
1/23/2026 10:07:21 PM long term sharp up 60 days later -14.40% -21.60%
1/22/2026 11:27:23 PM long term sharp up 60 days later -13.73% -20.59%
1/21/2026 11:13:16 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.97% -1.48%
1/21/2026 2:14:38 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +2.97% +1.48%
1/20/2026 2:41:17 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +6.34% +9.51%
1/14/2026 11:25:04 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +2.95% +4.43%
1/14/2026 2:13:25 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +2.95% +4.43%
1/13/2026 1:56:34 PM short term up 5 days later +0.59% +0.59%
1/12/2026 2:15:07 PM short term sharp up 6 days later +1.41% +2.11%
1/9/2026 2:07:56 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +1.01% +0.51%
12/23/2025 2:10:09 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -3.74% -5.62%
12/19/2025 5:07:19 PM long term sharp up 60 days later +12.69% +19.04%
12/19/2025 1:48:55 PM long term up 60 days later +12.69% +12.69%
12/17/2025 2:18:23 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +4.34% +6.50%
12/16/2025 1:50:51 PM long term up 61 days later +14.28% +14.28%
12/15/2025 10:17:24 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later +4.27% +6.41%
12/15/2025 10:16:24 PM long term sharp up 62 days later +15.71% +23.57%
12/11/2025 2:02:09 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.96% +2.94%
12/10/2025 2:04:36 PM long term up 60 days later +18.06% +18.06%
12/8/2025 1:55:19 PM short term up 6 days later +2.72% +2.72%
12/4/2025 1:55:43 PM short term up 5 days later -0.41% -0.41%
12/3/2025 1:42:38 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.20% +0.29%
11/28/2025 2:32:51 PM short term sharp up 7 days later -1.06% -1.59%
11/27/2025 3:34:31 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.43% -0.64%
11/25/2025 2:09:39 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.99% +2.99%
11/20/2025 2:01:46 PM long term up 60 days later +19.78% +19.78%
11/19/2025 2:11:41 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +2.07% +3.10%
11/18/2025 2:15:37 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.30% -0.15%
11/17/2025 11:09:46 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.63% -0.32%
11/14/2025 2:02:42 PM short term down 7 days later +0.48% -0.48%
11/12/2025 10:49:45 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -3.06% -4.59%
11/12/2025 2:16:05 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -3.06% -4.59%
11/11/2025 1:54:15 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -3.41% -5.12%
11/7/2025 1:44:27 PM short term sharp up 7 days later -1.17% -1.75%
10/30/2025 1:04:43 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.10% -0.05%
10/29/2025 1:10:53 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -1.56% -2.33%
10/28/2025 1:16:24 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.38% -0.19%
10/27/2025 10:44:23 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.91% -0.45%
10/17/2025 1:31:37 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -3.03% -4.54%
10/13/2025 10:52:34 PM short term up 5 days later +2.17% +2.17%
10/13/2025 2:05:40 PM long term sharp up 62 days later +4.31% +6.46%
10/10/2025 2:00:52 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +3.16% +4.74%
10/2/2025 1:50:52 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +4.52% +6.78%
9/29/2025 2:11:15 PM short term sharp up 6 days later +2.91% +4.37%
9/26/2025 2:00:35 PM short term sharp up 7 days later +3.31% +4.97%
9/24/2025 2:07:11 PM medium term up 20 days later +12.13% +12.13%
9/22/2025 1:45:19 PM short term sharp up 6 days later +1.42% +2.13%
9/19/2025 2:06:39 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +2.79% +1.39%
9/12/2025 2:07:34 PM short term sharp up 7 days later +1.47% +2.20%
9/11/2025 1:56:16 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +0.46% +0.23%
9/10/2025 1:41:49 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.20% -0.60%
9/9/2025 11:14:55 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later +5.83% +8.74%
9/9/2025 2:18:10 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.08% +1.62%
9/3/2025 1:52:44 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.97% +2.96%
9/2/2025 2:02:33 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.83% +1.24%
8/28/2025 2:17:15 PM short term up 5 days later +3.64% +3.64%
8/13/2025 2:10:59 PM short term up 5 days later -0.91% -0.91%
8/4/2025 11:45:30 PM medium term up 20 days later -0.51% -0.51%
7/24/2025 2:44:36 PM short term down 5 days later -1.17% +1.17%
7/18/2025 2:12:59 PM short term up 7 days later -2.75% -2.75%
Show all 134 metals results
yields
The interviewee states that the data dump will move 10-year Treasury yields, and that the market expects rate hikes (25bp or 50bp) by September. Hot PCE data would push yields higher.

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