dxy

In the last few weeks, since the summer, it has fluctuated within a range. Whether you look at the euro-U.S. dollar or nominal effective exchange rate the story is the same. Lagarde describes recent EUR/USD movement as rangebound, implying the dollar index (DXY) is also in a range.

yields

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path. Policy is on hold with a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. No indication of imminent cuts or hikes, suggesting stable rates in the near term.

metals

We've been bullish on gold for the last 18 months or so... We think that demand is going to remain strong... We prefer gold as the core diversifier and see upside there. Gold seen as diversification against dollar exposure, geopolitical concerns, and inflation; structural demand from central banks and institutions supports continued upside.

ndx

We think we're probably in for a period of consolidation as tech companies continue to grow into these earnings. Tech is worst performing sector, market broadening suggests rotation away from pure tech concentration, but still likes tech story long-term.

metals

In the last year, the dollar has gone down, gold and silver have gone up as you would expect... and they've gone up 100%. Silver is up even more. We're seeing a lot of client interest in silver and gold. 8.5% of our option volume last week was silver or gold related options. That's a dramatic increase from a typical week. So there's tremendous retail interest in the space. He explicitly reports strong recent price performance (100% up) and cites a sharp, recent increase in client trading activity (option volume) as evidence of 'tremendous retail interest.' This describes current momentum and sentiment, implying a near-term 'up' direction.

metals

the surge in gold... gold has outperformed Bitcoin... we're seeing this incredible run by gold Gold is explicitly stated to be outperforming Bitcoin and on an 'incredible run,' acting as a superior hedge against global instability. The direction is clearly 'up,' though the term 'sharp up' from the previous answer was an over-interpretation; 'up' is more conservative and accurate.

metals

If we go below 70, that would be the first time for a couple of months. That's probably where the last people who got in the short term momentum players will probably have to give up their positions... you could see a fast acceleration there as people are forced... it could get ugly.

dxy

I think the pickup in the dollar really goes back to what I said about US data. US data has picked up of late... So there's this broadening picture of US strength... it's this removal of tail risks and this dollar risk premium that was sort of embedded in the price and that's coming out offering the dollar some footing. Links dollar strength to improving US economic data and reduced political risk premium from Fed chair nomination.

ndx

the damage the NASDAQ 100 is doing below the 100-day, you're starting to think about those November lows in terms of a technical level as to where we could trade, which wouldn't be great. Discusses ongoing rotation out of tech, self-reinforcing sell-off in software/AI names, and technical breakdown.

dxy

Dollar index kind of stabilizing here, sitting at about 97.46. Not too explosive to the upside nor the downside more consolidating waiting for more data Explicitly described as consolidating/stabilizing, not trending

metals

silver up 8.3% rally higher, gold up 2.78%, silver 265% gain over last 12 months, massive ETF inflows into silver (31.8M oz largest one-day increase) Technical breakout patterns, geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, ETF flows reversing from outflows to massive inflows

rut

I've been a bull on this Russell 2000 for quite a while now, Russell 2000 earnings really starting to accelerate and they're out accelerating like the S&P 500 Small businesses benefiting from AI adoption, productivity improvements, breakout after April lows, Fed rate cuts optimism for small businesses

wti

WTI crude oil futures getting a boost here, really holding above that 60 mark here in his bullish trend Geopolitics and OPEC rhetoric supporting prices at 63.42

yields

10-year Treasury yields remain right at the top end of the range here at 4.29% Described as at top of range, not breaking out, with Fed watching tool showing low near-term rate cut probability

metals

Gold will move more methodically up over the course of the year. Warsh-led Fed bodes well for gold - creating good environment for gold. Structural shift in gold demand intact, central bank buying provides support floors, silver benefits from critical minerals policy designation.

dxy

The dollar is off about 8.4% from its cyclical high on the 13th of January 2025... It's been moving sideways actually for a couple months... When people keep talking about how the dollar is collapsing, they're simply not telling the truth... The dollar's not collapsing. It may decline in the long run, but it also may do well. Dollar has declined from recent highs but still significantly above longer-term lows; currently moving sideways with acknowledgment of potential long-term decline but not imminent collapse.

metals

We can be very bullish about silver prices in the long run rising above last year's $40 average price, while at the same time saying we don't think prices will rise sharply from the intraday high of $121.79 last Thursday... Anybody who sees something rise 135% in two months ought not to be surprised to see it fall back and give up half of that increase when the speculative fervor dissipates. Recent sharp decline seen as natural correction after speculative spike; metals still in bull market long-term but short-term caution due to speculative excess being worked out.

metals

for tactical trade... commodities give it a downturn, give it a sell off, I think it's time to re-engage. The interviewee remains overweight materials, views the supply backdrop as favorable, and sees the recent correction as a buying opportunity ('time to re-engage'). This indicates a positive directional view, but the context of recent high volatility and a 'tactical' call suggests caution, not a 'sharp up' conviction.

metals

I think the one word to describe the metal's mark markets right now is volatile... I wouldn't trust a rally just like I wouldn't trust a sell-off... I expect it to continue frankly. Cites large recent price swings in gold as evidence of the current whippy, two-way trading environment.

ndx

futures, eminence and nastict, both higher on the day Attributed to positive reaction (beat-and-raise) from a major software/AI component (Palantir) of the index.

metals

Gold to me is still a diversification story... I think there is a fundamental support there that would make me personally want to stay in that trade. She differentiates gold (diversification, dollar/inflation/crisis hedge) and silver (cyclical, supply chain story). Acknowledges recent speculation and profit-taking but sees underlying support for gold, arguing it's not purely speculative like Bitcoin. This is a fundamental, medium-term bullish view.

dxy

Dollar index sliding in this overnight session a bit. Dollar index 9747 ticking a bit here since start of recording. Seeing dollar index come off. Hawkish Fed rhetoric starting to dissolve according to speaker. Euro currency getting boost. Inverse correlation with metals suggests dollar weakness.

metals

April gold big snapback in the overnight session up about $282 sitting at 4935. High was 4974 just below 5,000 mark. March silver looking at the verge of another breakout to the upside. Dollar index sliding helping boost gold market due to 92-93% inverse correlation. Gold up 13% year to date. Potential for FOMO buying and algorithmic trading if gold breaks 5,000.

ndx

NASDAQ up 100 points. Stock futures up a bit here with S&P 500 firmly over 7,000 mark. Strong earnings with Palantir blockbuster beat and other major companies reporting. Positive momentum in broader markets with European stocks at record highs and Asian stocks bouncing back.

wti

Now we're seeing crude oil futures stabilizing pushing a bit back up here 6225. Recovering from big selloff yesterday on Iran talks. Stabilization suggests potential rebound after sharp decline.

dxy

Dollar as safe haven, no it's not, at least not this week, but maybe next week. Explicitly states the dollar's safe-haven role is currently broken, implying near-term volatility and lack of clear direction.

metals

I do think that the bull market in industrial metals, precious metals is still intact.

yields

To me, the rise in long term interest rates, the elevated levels should be a big focus of people. Cites RBA rate hike as evidence global inflation pressures persist, supporting a view of higher yields.

dxy

You're gonna see a weaker dollar against the creditor currencies... the dollar fall against the yuan... against the yen... against the euro... versus the Swiss Franc. The dollar's weakness is a direct consequence of the system unwind: loss of reserve status, weaponization, and devaluation needed to manage debt. A 'currency system transition' implies a long-term downtrend for the dollar.

metals

Gold is going back into the system as a reserve asset and rising in price... Gold could have way more upside than many people think even possible. The entire thesis is built on the 'Free Gold' unwind, where gold absorbs global surpluses. He cites JP Morgan's $8500+ target and historical parallels (1930, 1972, 2002) as evidence of a major, sustained move. Also bullish on base metals (copper, nickel) due to inflationary bottlenecks.

ndx

NASDAQ is down 45% versus gold since early 2024... Bitcoin's just levered NASDAQ... with capital leaving, Bitcoin's reacting to that. Views NASDAQ as a 'capital flow phenomenon' vulnerable to outflows (e.g., China stopping purchases). Sees a continued 'cool off in tech names' and shift to metals for the next few quarters. Does not 'love equities broadly here.'

metals

We have a long-term view on both copper and gold and we still remain position there Copper driven by AI infrastructure electrification; gold as hedge against dollar debasement, fiscal deficits, geopolitics.

ndx

This is a secular rout... right now it's more of a sentiment of a momentum wind down

ndx

I would expect more volatility, right? So you're having a new Fed chair. It's also a midterm election year, and both of those historically bring volatility. Based on historical patterns of Fed transitions and election years affecting equity markets; recommends low-vol strategies.

metals

I don't believe that our days of $100 silver and 5,000 ounce gold are behind us here... I believe that gold will continue to march on. And the same thing with silver. Views recent sharp sell-off as healthy correction after massive gains. Fundamentals (supply deficits, industrial demand, Basel 3, central bank buying) support higher prices long-term. Expects bottoming process this week, then resumption of uptrend.

yields

You see the yield curve steepening to interest rate cuts June and December. It's the exact same as before. Explicitly mentions yield curve steepening to rate cuts in June and December, indicating expectation for lower yields.

metals

When I talk to our gold strategist... he thinks the uncertainty story is going to stick around this year... you kind of do this with one hand and you do this with the other hand... that's what's been going on a lot in my world. She directly references her firm's gold strategist view that uncertainty supports gold. She describes a market dynamic where investors use gold to hedge equity/macro risks separately from their equity allocations, implying ongoing demand but also susceptibility to shifts in risk sentiment, leading to volatility.

ndx

AI jitters coming back into the market... the PE multiple... hit a ceiling... top 10 market cap names... priced for perfection, not a lot of room for error... healthy appetite... for diversification away from some of these big mega cap growth names. She explicitly cites high valuations, a ceiling on multiples, and investor desire to diversify away from mega-cap tech, pointing to near-term pressure and a lack of catalysts for significant upside.

rut

The Russell 2000 didn't do well after the pick... we saw it get hit again on Friday... the short-term trade equivalent is the Russell 2000 because fast-money hedge funds like to bid it up on Fed dovishness and sell it off when their dovishness goes too far... they're just not cheap anymore. Explicitly notes poor performance post-Fed news, frames it as a speculative short-term trade vulnerable to Fed sentiment shifts, and states valuations are no longer attractive.

dxy

We think that the combination of deregulation here in the United States, big tax changes... the returns on invested capital in the United States are going to go up relative to those elsewhere in the world... Trumponomics... is like Reaganomics on steroids. If you look at what happened to the dollar under Reagan, it doubled. Explicit forecast of dollar strength based on anticipated policy-driven capital returns and historical analogy to Reagan era.

metals

What you're seeing here is just a spillover where... Huge positions have been built up in the precious metals particularly in silver and gold... All of that is starting to pare back people losing money in one space. After quickly rush. to close position somewhere else. It's a domino effect... It's a question of... Sell fast. I'll ask questions later. Describes a panicked, forced liquidation across correlated trades (metals, tech, currencies), indicating a sharp, disorderly sell-off.

wti

It's evening, govd oil today. Not so much. because of the Iran situation more because positioning into the weekend was very long. in oil futures contracts. People are having drum-wide those positions because... They're costing you out somewhere else. Attributes oil's decline to long position unwinding as part of the broader risk-off/P&L survival theme, not geopolitics.

dxy

Our view is that we'll see further decline in the dollar over the course of 2026. Expects a gradual easing, which would be supportive for commodities. A weaker dollar would induce more investor appetite for the sector.

metals

The price came down... there was this massive round of profit taking... I think there is some downside left to it. The markets will continue to be extremely volatile. Describes a 'tremendous speculative bubble' that popped due to profit-taking and technical unwinding, with more near-term volatility expected.

dxy

I think the responsibility that the dollar will grant regain some of its footing... So I think the dollar could have further to go. Kevin Warsh nomination improves Fed credibility, may imply fewer rate cuts than previously expected. Positioning was overstretched short dollar.

ndx

We are the least optimistic on US technology stocks, the magnificent 7, then we have been in easily a decade. We believe that there's a rotation occurring that's coming out of them into emerging markets and hard assets. Cites concentration risk as eight of the ten largest global stocks are US tech. Expects continued rotation away during the year.

yields

We do think rates are going to come down... As interest rates come down this year Based on expectation of Fed cuts and normalization; recommends intermediate duration to benefit from price appreciation as rates fall.

ndx

The question is are they going to reassert their leadership for 2026. Our view is that they likely will.

yields

higher rates, less credibility and ultimately a lower fed put... As the term as trust goes down, term premium goes up... the yield curve steepens Warsh's appointment reduces market trust in Fed, increasing term premium and steepening yield curve, with market already showing reaction since nomination.

dxy

I think you got to counter trend in the next couple of months for sure. Dollar oversold, EM local currency bonds frothy, White House nervous, high probability of counter-trend rally near-term despite long-term bear market.

wti

This could be a great year for broadening out the commodity trade... the coal names, and the crude natural gas and oil. Capital migrating from financial assets to hard assets includes oil; part of sustained commodity bull market.

yields

"he can low rates pretty significantly and not be inflationary because his main concern is that the large inflationary pressure is built up from the huge balance sheet... which means that he can actually allow rates to drop." The 'Warsh maneuver' explicitly involves lowering rates while draining liquidity to combat inflation stemming from the balance sheet.

yields

the long term horizon for rates is that they will go down Near-term stability (no cuts until at least May) suggests yields won't drop immediately, but long-term direction is downward.

dxy

Mentions 'weakening of fiat currencies' as condition driving gold, and geopolitical shocks leading to weaker dollar - suggests dollar vulnerability amid global uncertainty and potential Fed policy shifts.

metals

we've hit our 12th record high here today... what we've got so far this year is a lot of people stepping in aggressively and momentum that's helping push this price higher. That's what we've seen. 20% percent in the first month FOMO driving aggressive buying, though expects volatility to clear speculation. Structural factors (portfolio diversification, bond correlation issues) provide fundamental support.

dxy

Firmer dollar after weakness that would be consistent with his views... Hawkish Fed chair prospect supports dollar strength.

ndx

Risk assets sold off on Warsh speculation. 'Risk assets which had such a big run to the upside. All they needed was a little bit of... uncertainty to get something of a correction.'

yields

We saw yield rise... Initial reaction to Warsh speculation was higher yields. Long rates reflect uncertainty about inflation if the Fed cuts aggressively.

metals

gold and silver doing so well, especially at the start of the year. That created FOMO and that was a Govore text sucking all risk appetite towards the precious metals trade. Lee describes a strong, FOMO-driven rally in precious metals at the start of the year, implying upward momentum.

ndx

I think the markets are going to actually continue to do really well this year. Based on strong earnings delivery, expected rate cuts helping profits, and AI growth narrative being in early innings.

yields

we're gonna obviously, he rates probably go down, you know. this year Mentioned in context of helping corporate profits.

yields

I still think rates are too restrictive, as I've made very clear. I still think we need to cut and straight substantially further from here. However, given that we've made some progress reducing rates, We can now sort of, I think, in my view, proceed at a slower pace of about a quarter point per meeting. Miran is a dissenter for lower rates. He argues inflation is not a real problem (2.2% after adjustments) and the labor market has slack, justifying further cuts, albeit at a slower pace.

dxy

We're going to see a bounce in the dollar short term.

metals

We're going to see the pullback in precious metals.

dxy

Expects dollar weakness to continue, particularly Eurodollar with target of 122. Technical flows from real money investors and systematic accounts can perpetuate dollar weakness trends.

metals

Favors short copper as a tail-risk position tied to data center buildout story. Copper looks elevated with expectations that could lead to lower price action if downside risk emerges.

yields

Economic outlook is strong and warrants no further cuts from the Fed this year.

dxy

the dollar trend, we might see a correction because it's been very sharp... I think the trend overall is there for a dollar weakness in 2026.

yields

I do believe we will be flirting with the dangerous zone of 5% when we go above the 20 and 30 years. Due to fiscal imbalances weighing on bond market.

metals

Right now live on the air. I've got gold down 5% I've got silver down 13.7%. So these are big moves. Metals were extremely overbought (gold RSI >90), moved to hyperbolic levels recently, experiencing volatility.

dxy

we're projecting that dollar will decline about 1% annually over the next decade Dollar weakness cited as key driver for international market outperformance; projected annual decline suggests gradual, sustained downward trend rather than sharp drop.

dxy

the dollar is gaining a little bit of strength... The dollar is trying to bounce and move higher here it's up about half a percent... Linked to hawkish Fed speculation (Warsh), which is seen as dollar-positive.

metals

silver sub 100 now down around 12%... gold... down about 5%... a pullback for now. Guest describes a sharp, liquidity-driven selloff with bearish technical divergences, indicating a current downtrend.

dxy

the weaker dollar, the bearish dollar trade, I think is here to stay Pro-cyclical phase in cycle, global growth trends, Fed on hold

metals

half a percentage point increase in the gold allocations by private investors means gold at 6,000... over the next couple of years, gold at 8,000 Demand for diversification, private investors increasing allocations, emerging market central bank buying, industrial demand from data centers

dxy

I would not be surprised... that you actually see a bid in the US dollar... for the next couple of days Based on Warsh's hawkish reputation reducing uncertainty and potentially tighter monetary policy outlook.

metals

It's just a low liquidity market... you're starting to see a lot more intraday reactions, aggressive reactions... silver pull back around 11% today. But these intraday moves would not be surprised if it goes green as well here. Describes silver as having collapsed liquidity with speculative trading causing extreme price swings in both directions.

yields

I would not be surprised... that you actually see... a bear steepener basically a selling out of the longer duration treasuries, tens, 20s, 30s, and then buyers getting into the two year Treasury. Expectation based on Kevin Warsh's hawkish monetary policy stance as new Fed chair nominee.

dxy

We're going to see a bounce in the dollar But speaker1 notes 'dollar move is already getting overdone' suggesting limited upside.

metals

we're going to see the pullback in precious metals Part of broader market correction/catalyst from Warsh appointment.

ndx

pullback in stocks Part of temporary correction/catalyst from Warsh appointment - 'short-term turning point that might last for a couple of weeks'.