dxy

Dollar in structural decline - FX reserves 65% in USD but US economy only 25% of global economy, 13% of global trade Sees structural pressure on dollar as global trade shifts away from dollar dominance

yields

Fed neutral rate around 300bps, we're still at 400bps, so they have potential to cut below 300bps to become stimulative Expects Fed to continue cutting rates to reach neutral level, which would push yields lower

metals

I think gold is going to be bigger than the dollar in global FX reserves within 2 to 3 years Fiscal dominance makes treasuries unsuitable as reserve assets; central bank gold buying accelerating; commodity markets much larger than gold will bid prices higher; gold already surpassed treasuries in reserves

yields

without sending 10-year Treasury yields to rates that I estimate to be somewhere between 4.6 and 4.8% which would start to trigger equity volatility Structural deficits and inability to term out debt without yield pressure; treadmill problem forces bill issuance but creates upward pressure on longer yields

metals

Gold still looks great. If the low is in place from the 28th of October, then the upside targets are 4533 and 4704 Held key support, broken through overhead resistance, all moving averages on bulls side with clear upside targets

ndx

NASDAQ has taken out the November 7th low there. Again, once we push through that 786 retracement, which was at 24,949, that told me we'd either retest the 7th of November low of 2479 or we'd make a lower low. And at this point, we have done that Technical breakdown through key Fibonacci level with three moving averages on bears side

ndx

I think this is a buying opportunity. I don't think this is a change in trend Expects 2026 GDP growth and productivity gains from tech investment to support earnings

yields

I expect them to cut 25 basis points Based on Phillips curve framework showing rising unemployment and falling wage inflation

yields

I would cut and I would have started cutting in July Believes Fed should be cutting rates due to productivity boom potential and to avoid derailing growth

metals

I've been putting new money to work for the last five days in most markets that you can imagine. Whether it's gold, precious metals Actively buying metals currently; mentions gold up 65% and maintains 5-10% portfolio allocation to commodities including gold, palladium, silver

ndx

Left there feeling more bullish than I even came in; if you truly believe in how transformational this will be and how early we are Distinguishes AI as technological supercycle not bubble, cites reasonable valuations (30-32x vs historical 80x), fewer public companies, and massive private capital seeking AI exposure

ndx

Concerns about tech debt issuance, cash flow risks from data center investments, and credit spread widening suggest cautious outlook for big tech names that dominate NDX

yields

That would lead to some upside surprises for Treasury yields, especially short term yields... maybe you see short and intermediate term yields rise a little bit to kind of readjust to that outlook If Fed doesn't cut in December and extends pause beyond market expectations, yields need to adjust upward from current forward-looking pricing

yields

We certainly do because the short end coming down looking through over the next 12 months Expects yield curve steepening with short-term rates declining while long end may rise, creating uncertainty that takes froth out of equity markets

yields

as you saw the 10 year yield rise higher to around 414 Rising yields reflect reduced rate cut expectations due to persistent inflation pressures

ndx

we're looking for a higher market next year Base case 7300 by June 2026, could go as high as 8000, driven by technological innovation and fiscal developments

wti

price of oil go down to $58 a barrel Affects every single thing we have, haven't fully processed by marketplace, will see prices come down and stabilize

yields

we have the Fed on the track to lower interest rates Fed can lower due to weakness in labor and lack of new data during government shutdown

ndx

I think there's a tech bull market that goes on for another two years Based on AI CapEx supercycle, demand growth, and enterprise AI adoption from 3% to 20% over 18-24 months

dxy

States dollar recoupled with interest rates and will stay stronger if US rates trend higher as he expects, following three-phase pattern of tracking rates, decoupling, then recoupling

metals

Gold is going to have a... it has had a fantastic year. It's up almost 60%... I think it's going to continue to perform very well. Gold is a hedge against something going wrong Cites political tensions, wars, inflation risks as reasons for gold's continued performance, recommends small position as warranted

ndx

Describes market as dominated by retail investors driving 17% returns mostly from AI stocks, with only 4-5% from everything else, suggesting concentration risk and potential for digestion phase

yields

I'm still of the opinion that we're in a long term secular rise in interest rates... once we break out of this long sideways action that we've been in for two years, then it'll probably be higher on the back of economic strength and on the back of stickier or uncomfortable inflation References hitting 5% in 2023 and current ~4% levels, sees inflation running 3-3.5% vs Fed target of 2% as problematic for bond market

ndx

We're going to be with our men now in 2,500. That's like 30 to 10. next two to three years Based on AI revolution thesis, Street underestimating numbers by 20-30%, CapEx supercycle playing out, and view that this is only second inning of nine inning game

yields

If they're not going to ease, then actually I would expect that's actually more likely to pull the tenure and you'll lower Believes economy weakening will pressure yields lower, especially if Fed doesn't ease and allows prolonged economic weakness

ndx

government reopening and Christmas rally to drive markets higher, optimistic on tech trade, buying opportunities on pullbacks Bullish on large cap tech/Mag Seven, sees earnings strength, AI investments as early innings, rate cuts supportive for tech

yields

They cut rates in September on a risk management consideration; the Fed can cut more if the economy slows Labor market slowing due to demand; inflation steady but elevated; Fed's rate decisions reflect balancing inflation risk and labor market risks

dxy

The dollar has been on a pretty good run over a long period of time and it's certainly given back this year given some of the policy actions some of the gains. But the dollar is the reserve currency of the world. I don't see anything at the moment that threatens that. Despite recent depreciation, the speaker believes the dollar's fundamental reserve currency status is intact, and the recent decline is an appropriate adjustment rather than a sign of structural weakness.

metals

Precious metals continue to surge overnight. Gold reached an intraday high and trading around $4132, eyeing a new 52-week high. Silver is stronger with its fourth highest close in history, up nearly 6% in the last three sessions. Elevated volatility, supportive technical indicators, ETF flows, and market speculation are driving a sharp short-term upward movement in precious metals.

metals

silver just ripping higher today... on the verge of breaking out above those October highs Silver taking charge in precious metals movement, strong momentum with breakout imminent above key resistance levels

wti

big rejection on some bearish fundamental headlines... now we're closing below the recent lows which opens the door for some more downside potential Failed bull flag pattern, bearish production headlines from global and US sources, technical breakdown below recent lows

yields

yields are going to remain stubbornly high Global debt issuance, European fiscal problems creating spillover effects, equity market influence

yields

If the UK Chancellor can make a bigger fiscal buffer at this budget, it could make the 10-year gilt yield fall 50 basis points. We expect a structural surplus to calm the market and reduce yields. Political instability currently weighs on gilt yields but credible budget delivery and fiscal surplus could reduce market risk premium, leading to lower yields in the short term.

ndx

We have been consistently positive on growth, which is really dominated by technology; earnings growth is strong, with over 90% reported and almost 50% growth in the current quarter. Despite some economic concerns, the interviewee expects technology-driven growth to continue in the near term, supported by strong earnings and AI spending; low recession probability and robustness in consumption support a positive near-term view on Nasdaq 100.

metals

Another position that we like your gold. I think moving to gold as a defensive tactic has always been the school of thought. But the reality is gold has some growth principles in it as well... the government is after gold right now. The government's around the world is after gold. And as we start to see yield, maybe diminish a little bit in a savings account, people are going to be looking for alternatives. and what better is there than gold Recommends GLD ETF for gold exposure; sees gold having both defensive and growth characteristics amid yield environment and government demand

yields

Interest rates are too high in my opinion if you look at what the Fed has said and done rates are still restrictive... Lowering Interest rates, mortgage rates are basically at 52 week lows. That's how we're going to increase affordability by getting interest rates down Believes current rate levels are restrictive and explicitly calls for lowering rates to improve affordability, particularly in housing market

ndx

in the short term a little bit more volatility maybe a little bit more of a pullback actually is a healthy development for the market High momentum, low quality, higher beta parts of market rolling over after remarkable six-month run

yields

we do think that the Fed will cut into some more. And then again, another three times in 2026 to get to a neutral rate of about 3% by the middle of the year

ndx

It is likely to be a volatile ride. AI growth story is positive but investor nervousness and valuation concerns lead to expected volatility.

ndx

Goldman Sachs strategists expect U.S. equities to continue lagging global peers over the next decade, but Michael Ball says structural reforms and better growth dynamics should boost earnings and margins, supporting cautious optimism especially driven by AI. Despite U.S. equities lagging globally due to valuation concerns, earnings growth driven by AI, productivity improvements, and strong corporate capital allocation support a cautiously positive outlook over the medium term.

wti

prices hovering near $90 a barrel by 2035 IEA projects oil demand growth from 100M to 113M barrels per day by 2050 due to slower EV adoption and economic uncertainties

yields

We have cut interest rates 300 basis points since last October as part of an easing cycle, but yields are now surging due to housing prices and global factors affecting the bond market. We need to monitor new data to decide on further monetary policy adjustments. Yields are influenced by both domestic factors like housing prices and external factors such as US Fed decisions and dollar movements, creating uncertainty and volatility; the Bank of Korea is cautious and will respond depending on upcoming data.

ndx

We're targeting 7100 by year end this year. I think everything's going to rally. Seasonality factors, bigger tax refunds, positive earnings, government reopening potential, and an ongoing AI CapEx cycle support a bullish market outlook.

yields

Our bond market yields react not only to domestic factors but also global factors such as the possibility of the US Fed decision and also the dollar strength... rising yields affect our monetary transmission mechanism. Although the Bank of Korea is maintaining an easing cycle due to a negative output gap and below-potential growth, rising bond yields driven by both domestic and international factors present a risk to monetary policy effectiveness and financial stability.

ndx

I think we're going to be bouncing around a little bit more than we thought we would Government shutdown delaying economic data, inflation uncertainty with 55% of CPI components above 3%, December rate cut uncertain

ndx

risk of water is still really good for equities into your end... S&P will be over 7,000 by the end of the year Despite short-term consolidation, positive seasonals, good earnings, and negative sentiment create favorable setup for year-end rally

ndx

Tech bull market has two more years ahead of it in terms of the AI super cycle of CapEx Trillion-dollar balance sheets, $300-400B annual free cash flow, $500-600B CapEx next year, strong demand for AI chips, investors underestimating automation scale

yields

The market is pricing around a 70 percent chance the Fed will cut in December; liquidity problems and cash balance unravelling could influence front end rates; political pressures may push for lower rates. Weakening labor market data is prompting expectations of Fed easing, but division within the Fed and market uncertainty mean cautious downward pressure on yields in the short term.

ndx

The Nasdaq composite down 42 points but well off its worst levels of the session. Nvidia shares down 2.6% after SoftBank sold its entire stake, contributing to tech weakness. Rotation out of high valued tech names and concerns about AI bubble show short-term pressure on Nasdaq.

yields

Inflation is 3% this year, 3% last year. Underlying inflation is probably slowing. The Fed should continue to cut interest rates here. Unemployment rate is increasing ahead of schedule indicating weakening labor market and downside risk to growth; inflation is stable or slowing, supporting rate cuts.

yields

We have seen Treasury yields retreat sharply on the back of softer private sector labor data, with markets pricing around a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in December.

ndx

This is very much a SoftBank thing not some kind of doubt about Nvidia or Nvidia's place in the AI buildout. SoftBank’s sale is seen as financing rather than fundamental concerns; short-term market jitters but longer-term Nvidia importance intact.

metals

Copper prices rose from $5,000 to $11,000 in a steady upward trend since 2020; forecast target is around $15,000 per ton over 2-3 years. Physical supply constraints and high CapEx spending behind continued price increases in base and precious metals through the decade. Physical bottlenecks in supply chains, long supply timelines, and increasing demand driven by energy transition and investment will continue to push metal prices sharply higher in the long term.

wti

Refined product prices have dislocated to the upside relative to crude. Refineries coming back online by end of year will translate product price upside into oil price. The broader commodity complex is moving, crude oil is moving. Capacity constraints in refining limit crude price rise currently; as refinery capacity normalizes, oil prices should rise moderately over the medium term.

yields

Market suggests US economy is cooling and the Fed will need to cut interest rates again, supporting the leg lower in bond yields. Weakening labor market and private sector jobs data point to rate cuts by the Fed, driving Treasury yields lower in the short term.

yields

they're like they do 25... I'm reading what the TV's that they're showing us Based on Fed signaling and recent economic data including shutdown impact on GDP and better-than-expected inflation report

yields

rates popped... entire curves rates are up a bit... they're back towards the high end... still stubborn, long and rates Recent Treasury auction results showing yield spikes, combined with discriminating investors and data uncertainty creating upward pressure on yields

metals

I think everyone has to own gold. I always start with 10% gold. Always. And it's just an insurance policy, and it helps me sleep well at night Portfolio allocation to gold as insurance against systemic risk and currency debasement; sees gold as essential protection in deteriorating economic environment

metals

Gold has surged with two consecutive sessions adding about $131 or 3.1%, largest gains since October 20th; silver also up significantly with largest gains since October 13th.

ndx

SoftBank selling NVIDIA stake is for capital raising to invest in AI, not risk aversion; ongoing massive investments in AI and tech. Despite some profit taking, continued large investments indicate positive but cautious market direction for AI-related stocks like those in Nasdaq over short term.

metals

We are still happy to buy gold, palladium, silver; gold buying is high this year catalyzed by distrust in U.S. government and related factors. Precious metals benefit from safe haven demand amid distrust in government and economic uncertainty.