dxy

We are still leaning more towards fading the dollar strength eventually... I'm not sure that [the dollar as a stagflation hedge] will be the case this time around. Argues that unlike 2022, all central banks are fighting inflation now, reducing the Fed's unique credibility advantage. While the dollar has benefited from energy independence, the view is to eventually fade its strength.

metals

Gold has sold off a lot as well... some of that investor positioning is unwinding. Attributes recent gold weakness to a strong dollar and investor positioning unwinding to raise liquidity. Sees it as a tactical move, potentially an opportunity for longer-term investors, but the near-term direction discussed is down.

wti

Our team is now expecting something in the low 80s on Brent. He cites a supply shock from the conflict causing disruption, leading to 'lasting damage' and a higher settled price. He explicitly upgrades the team's forecast.

wti

We now expect a somewhat higher oil price of Brent $80 by year end. Due to damage from Hormuz supply shock and structural factors (faster SPR builds, security premium).

metals

We looked at trimming back that gold hedge. Anytime your hedge rallies about 100% you've got to think about defining that hedge a little bit more.

wti

We don't expect energy prices to go back to where they were before the war because there is these production disruptions. Supply disruptions from conflict are expected to keep prices elevated relative to pre-war levels for the medium term, with potential for fuel shortages and rationing in importing regions.

ndx

I remain very bearish on stocks... I can only assume it's going to get worse. His bearishness is directly tied to the geopolitical stalemate and the closed Strait of Hormuz, which he sees as the key market driver. He expects this negative dynamic to persist in the near term.

wti

this news that's... pushing oil down Explicitly states news is pushing oil down. The caution comes from his need to 'see what the follow through is' and 'where oil ultimately settles out', indicating uncertainty about the sustainability of the move.

wti

to add something that might be a lasting gasoline price shock The entire discussion centers on a current surge in oil/gasoline prices creating an inflationary shock. Goolsbee discusses the immediate impact of '$4.89 a gallon in Chicago' affecting consumption. The direction is clearly up in the short term, with uncertainty about whether it becomes lasting.

metals

I would be selling... That's what we're seeing in gold, that's what we're seeing in silver Sees FOMO, parabolic moves, and political-statement buying that will unwind with normalization. Compares to crude where leveraged traders will liquidate aggressively.

ndx

Bullish on structural themes driving growth: infrastructure rebuilding, financial digitization/tokenization, and AI as 5+ year phenomenon. Recommends leaders like Nvidia, Caterpillar, Goldman Sachs - all typical NDX components. Sees market underestimating sustainability of these trends.

wti

oil is going to come down... we would expect to see it in across the complex in crude as well in the days to come Believes ample supply will be recognized after time, similar to past tariff conflicts. Peace would remove terror premium. Current move is short-covering rally, not real trade.

metals

I really think for the long haul I still want to be in commodities and I still want to have a gold position... at this level I think it's a very good opportunity to add to gold and add to commodities. Views current price (~$4000) as a good entry point after a pullback from ~$5500, aligning with his original target for the year.

yields

Meanwhile, the spreads on fixed income have definitely been on the march... high yield spreads have risen by something like 60 basis points, maybe at the wide 70 basis points... all corporate credit is definitely widening. Explicit commentary on widening credit spreads indicates upward pressure on yields for risky debt.

wti

Oil futures curve has changed...that's gone from the 60s and threatening to break out into the 90s...That's a change. That's a real step up. Official acknowledges oil price increase as a 'real step up' and has adjusted inflation projections accordingly, but argues it's too early to draw policy conclusions.

wti

the longer it goes on, the more likely it is that we see higher oil prices for a sustained period of time. The direction and duration of the Middle East conflict is the primary driver. A sustained conflict implies sustained higher prices.

yields

we've likely seen the lows on where 10 year treasuries can go... we don't think that we'll get back down to the 4% level... should translate into higher longer term yields going forward. Geopolitical risk (Middle East/Iran) raises inflation expectations and the term premium, creating upward pressure on yields. The expectation that yields won't fall back to 4% implies a higher range.

metals

Gold seemingly in a free fall here with nine straight days of losses... the bottom had dropped out overnight with gold plunging nearly 9%... Since the war with Iran has begun, the metal has dropped about 20% of its value. Caused by a 'dash for cash, dash for yields' as investors liquidate liquid assets like gold amid fear, compounded by expectations for higher rates and a stronger dollar.

yields

Global yields they have surged... 10-year Treasury yields, this is another thing to watch, jumping up to 4.43%. Massive move higher here. Driven by concerns that oil prices will stoke inflation and the Middle East conflict is fueling stagflation fears, leading traders to price in Fed rate hikes.

dxy

Dollar can run quite a long way. Oil producer status provides insulation; non-oil producer currencies (like AUD) face severe supply risks if conflict prolongs.

metals

Some people have been using gold to sell (since it's gone up a lot) in order to buy more expensive oil and things in the short run. Practical profit-taking and liquidity needs in a volatile environment; long-term dollar-alternative story on hold until conflict ends.

wti

Brent oil prices, somewhere between $120,250,000, $120,000 a barrel... at that level, consumers start to modify their behavior. This is the price level needed for demand destruction to balance the current ~12-13 mbd physical deficit.

yields

If the war goes on for longer, beyond April, and we get a further spike in oil to what's $100 on a sustain basis... we can see yields really going up. Based on oil price impact on inflation and fiscal deficits, forcing central banks to hike rates.

wti

that's gone from the 60s and threatening to break out into the 90s Interviewer observes oil futures curve change with December contract moving significantly higher, indicating recent upward price pressure.

wti

we need to see oil prices stabilize and potentially starts to come down again For her market rotation thesis (broadening out) to hold, oil prices need to come down to avoid dragging on growth and low-end consumers. She frames high oil as a risk, implying a downward direction is needed.

metals

Gold should continue to decline. I wouldn't be surprised over the coming weeks if the conflict continues that we have another 10% or so downside. War premium unwinding, profit-taking, stronger dollar, higher yields, and lack of new escalation catalysts.

ndx

The asymmetric setup is for much more declines to come. Market still positioned optimistically; belief conflict will end soon is misplaced; worst month for stocks in years suggests further downside.

ndx

We are overweight exposure, tactically speaking, in the Mag7 and AI-related automation robotic-related plays. I think that will continue to be a really bright spot. Sees big tech/AI as a defensive growth area with a long runway, though notes valuations are not 'outright cheap.'

wti

Oil could reach $150-$200 a barrel if there is a multi-quarter stoppage of the Strait of Hormuz. Conflict is prolonged, Strait closure disrupts supply for months, and broader commodity impacts (fertilizer, sulfur) will amplify the shock.

yields

The Bank of England has shifted from expecting cuts to expecting hikes... there's likely to be hikes across the board at the Bank of England. Supply-shock inflation from the conflict forces central banks to tighten policy despite the growth risks.

dxy

FX has probably been the quietest market and probably where we need a bit more movement. Comment suggests the dollar (as part of FX) has not seen significant directional movement yet, implying a sideways or rangebound state needing a catalyst.

metals

Precious metals are doing what they should in tanking.

ndx

stocks ultimately have more downside... ultimately stocks have more downside in the weeks ahead.

dxy

this is the one crisis of which dollar is the ultimate haven. In an inflation shock, investors can't flee to Treasuries, so the dollar becomes the primary safe-haven asset.

metals

gold, I think still has more downside from here... I still expected maybe 3,600 level. Geopolitical risk premium is exhausted; the dominant market forces are now a strong dollar and higher real yields, both negative for gold.

wti

sure they can go higher... we're seeing oil prices at some of the highest levels we've seen during this crisis. DiPaola states prices can go higher but are tempered by Saudi workarounds and strategic releases, implying upward pressure with caution due to existing mitigants.

wti

we actually see prices got a potential to hit as high as $140 per barrel in 3 to 4 weeks time. So that's basically $10 per barrel rise each week if there is no meaningful de-escalation in the conflict. Based on analysis of Strait of Hormuz closure, severe restriction of non-Iranian crude flows, and expectation of prolonged conflict with no quick restoration of safe navigation.

dxy

Dollar strength now building not just on its role as the higher the petro-dollar system globally and the world's reserve currency in general, but also that realignment in what's going on with interest rates.

wti

One Trump post or fresh conflict escalation could send oil climbing or falling.

yields

Traders now betting on small chances for Fed Hikes this year... That's going to go on weighing on treasuries and on bonds Globally.

wti

If oil prices remain at or above $100/barrel for an extended period... Analysis is based on the assumption of sustained high prices due to the conflict, indicating an upward direction from pre-conflict levels.

wti

I do think that oil prices are... higher for longer. And I think our forecast of oil going to 175 and staying through up to 100 to the end of next year is reasonable. Kirby is making business decisions (cutting 5% capacity, planning for fare increases) based on this forecast, indicating he views it as a credible scenario requiring operational adjustments.

yields

I want to be long actually Treasuries now. Believes either higher oil prices will scare the economy (bullish for bonds) or there will be a pause in the conflict allowing rates to rally.

wti

a barrel of oil would reach $250 if they wanted it to Ambassador warns that if Iran controls Strait of Hormuz through proxies like Houthis, they could shut down world markets and drive oil prices to $250. This is presented as a current threat that must be prevented.

wti

We're now preparing for the oil price being at a much higher level for a much longer time. The base case is no longer a short-term spike but a protracted conflict with sustained supply disruptions.

yields

The move has been exaggerated by positioning and the change in narrative from central banks. Central banks are responding to new, severe information with a hawkish narrative and actual hikes (Australia, Iceland), preparing for more, leading to a bear flattening of the curve.

yields

you're not going to see a hike in interest rates, but you're not going to see a lower interest rate either

wti

The price of oil will drop like a rock as soon as a deal is done. Prediction is conditional on a successful deal with Iran, which he believes is imminent. Also states desire to 'lubricate' the system with Iranian oil.

ndx

Overweight US equities recommendation, positive view on AI-driven productivity boom (1990s parallel), and structural advantages of the US economy all imply a positive outlook for US growth stocks represented by NDX.

wti

Acknowledges near-term spike ('first month contracts almost doubled') but argues the market sees it as temporary ('12 month is only up 10 to 15 dollars'). This implies a short-term rise but not a sustained bull market.

yields

Our belief for now is that you'll probably going to get another two cuts this year... We expect him to at least try and deliver one rate cut before the midterm elections. The call for rate cuts is based on addressing a slow-growth job market and the view that AI will be disinflationary (1990s parallel). The Fed has room to cut as the economy does fine at 3% inflation.

yields

the appropriate response for interest rates to go higher... central banks might be to high rates... We raised interest rates. And this is what we could wind up seeing now. Nominal GDP (growth+inflation) is going up, driven more by inflation than growth reduction, justifying higher rates. Parallel to early-80s inflation fight.

wti

the price of oil might go to $130 or $150 in that very adverse scenario Scenarios based on length of Strait of Hormuz disruption: 21 days -> $110, 30 days -> $130, 60 days -> $150.

wti

we're seeing the energy price shock Jones explicitly cites the 'energy price shock' as a direct consequence of the prolonged and escalated Middle East conflict, indicating she sees oil prices (WTI) moving higher.

wti

The oil market is bifurcated... The middle east crude oil that goes to Asia is now trading at $16070... oil that goes to the United States is still trading around $95... it's never been $80 like we've seen now. Describes a structurally fractured market with extreme regional price disparities ($95-$170), indicating severe supply disruption and upward price pressure. Argues a 10-million-barrel deficit must be resolved by prices rising until demand is destroyed.

yields

we're going to get more inflation than we're going to get a reduction in growth... nominal GDP's going to go up. And that means that the appropriate response for interest rates to go higher... central banks might be to hike rates. Thesis is that oil-driven inflation will outpace growth slowdown, raising nominal GDP, which mechanically requires higher interest rates. Explicitly rules out cuts as a mistake.

yields

We're seeing the treasuries going up. and not the flight to quality as we have seen in other crisis... this is why the bond markets are reacting as they are reacting. And so all the forecasts that interest rates will go down. I think they've been putting on hold in some markets close to home for you. Interest rates went up. Bond market reaction to war-driven inflation risks and macroeconomic resetting.

wti

The oil that goes to the United States is still trading around $95. While describing massive regional price divergences, Bianco specifically notes US oil (WTI benchmark) remains around $95, suggesting stability at that level despite disruptions elsewhere. No directional prediction for WTI is made.

metals

I do stand by that [call on gold]... Structural drivers of gold, such as purchases from central banks... provide a bit of a floor Maintains a structural bullish view based on diversification demand and central bank buying, despite acknowledging near-term headwinds.

ndx

we're seeing a lot of interest come back into tech, into AI... bringing attention back to the fundamentals and the really strong earnings picture Sees investor focus shifting back to the strong fundamental earnings story in tech/AI, away from macro concerns.

wti

oil prices are going to stay high for a longer time Conflict looks protracted with Strait of Hormuz closed, suggesting persistent supply disruption rather than transitory spike.

yields

inflation expectations has gone through the roof... driving inflation expectations higher and yields higher Market is pricing in significant inflation hit from geopolitical conflict, with rates potentially moving over 75bps higher. Fixed income market is extrapolating aggressive inflation implications.

wti

oil prices are going to stay high for a longer time Due to Strait of Hormuz closure and protracted Middle East conflict

ndx

expecting a lot of volume for today that could create significant volatility Triple witching with Nasdaq 100 contracts expiring creates potential for aggressive sell-off then rally or opposite pattern.

rut

expecting a lot of volume for today that could create significant volatility Triple witching with Russell contracts expiring alongside other indexes.

dxy

We've held the view of a longer term view on the dollar of dollar weakness... We want to be conscious of potentially potential weakness in the dollar. Based on structural concerns over US fiscal sustainability.

metals

Gold is a strategic asset that we would have in portfolios irregardless of where the near-term pricing goes day to day. Positioning gold as a strategic, non-sovereign currency and portfolio diversifier, especially in a crisis environment, suggests a positive long-term view.

wti

The first order, we know that oil prices will go up. Direct statement about the immediate impact of the war and supply disruptions.

wti

higher for longer seems to be the risk right now Infrastructure damage will take time to repair even with ceasefire; Middle East supply disruption of 10 million barrels/day creates structural shortage; limited alternatives for middle distillates; temporary sanction relief insufficient.

ndx

Equities still look rich relative to where they could go in a genuine shock where the Fed is not able to cut interest rates. Valuations are too high for an environment of persistent inflation and constrained central bank response.

wti

We could get $125, $130 a barrel oil very easily if this continues to unfold in a scale that is measured in months, not weeks as it was originally intended. The market mispriced the conflict as short-term; the nature is a persistent supply shock.

metals

wti

Longer disruption will cause financial prices to embed more risk and go higher. The paper market is under-pricing the duration risk from infrastructure damage. Escalation increases the probability of a prolonged event.

metals

The dollar index goes down, the gold market in my opinion goes up. Presents two macro scenarios (higher energy prices hurting growth or lower oil prices easing dollar pressure) that both conclude with a positive outlook for gold and silver.

metals

gold... is now being a little bit put to the sideline... The technical break below 5000 was really the signal Pressure from reduced Fed rate cut expectations, a stronger dollar, and profit-taking on a popular long position.

wti

higher for longer seems to be the risk right now... it will have to be reflected in the price to go higher Infrastructure damage will take years to repair, creating a sustained supply deficit of up to 10 million barrels per day.

wti

The market is saying... this is not going to be in the market's opinion a sustained increase in energy. Points to futures curve (first month up sharply but 12-month only up $10-15) as evidence the market sees the energy price spike as temporary, not a fundamental, lasting shock that would re-ignite broad inflation.

yields

Our belief for now is that you'll probably going to get another two cuts this year. Expects Fed cuts due to a 'slow growth job market' and a belief that AI-driven productivity will be disinflationary, mirroring the mid-90s. Argues the 2% inflation target isn't based on US financial history and the economy does fine at 3%.

yields

the balance over the course of the next several months is likely to be in favor of no moves either down or up Explicit forecast for Fed policy on hold implies yields rangebound, as opposing forces of inflation (from energy) and growth slowdown balance out.

metals

metals collapsing... copper did it, silver did it... This is just getting started. Explicitly states metals are collapsing and decline is just beginning, with silver down almost 3% for year after being up 63% in January.

ndx

Says stock market is 'wobbling' and market is worrying about triggering acceleration in downward trend like 9/11. Notes S&P 500 volatility hasn't reflected energy crisis yet but expects trickle-up effect. References 2008 recession pattern where stocks fell after oil peak.

yields

long bond yields starting to tick down today because it sees an end game Explicitly states long bond yields are ticking down as market anticipates end game of energy crisis leading to recession.

wti

there is a view that there is probably more durability in elevated energy prices around the world coming out of the conflict.

ndx

With that comes a technology trade... when you're going through tough times, particularly from a macro perspective, tech is relatively macro-agnostic asset class... that's where investors will be focusing on in moments of difficulty. Sees US tech as a relative safe haven and beneficiary of a flight to quality/resilience within the US market during the shock.

wti

We would certainly assume at this point in a time that oil prices... will stay fairly elevated through the rest of the year even if the conflict comes to an end in the next few days. The shift in dynamic where Iran, not the US, can call the shots means supply disruption risks are more persistent.

dxy

The dollar has really not lost its role in times of turmoil... We do think the dollar will continue to be the global reserve currency. His view is one of stability and maintained status, not a strong directional call up or down.

wti

Oil futures price of oil about a year out is around $70 a barrel not $100... oil investors seem to think this is going to end pretty quickly. Clarida cites futures market pricing, which suggests the market expects a reversion from current spike, implying a sideways-to-lower medium-term direction from current highs.

wti

all of this is obviously bullish for prices The reasoning is built on three escalating, supply-side risk factors: chokepoint risk, involuntary production shut-ins, and physical infrastructure damage with long repair times. The analysis of the Qatar LNG attack (3-year repair) is presented as a leading indicator for similar risks to oil infrastructure.

metals

gold futures continue in a cell off... you're going to see that they're going to be buying less gold in the future... gold, gold miners, silver, silver miners, all being sold off at the same time. High energy prices create a stagflationary shock, forcing the Fed to hold rates, which hurts growth-sensitive commodities. Capital is shifting from store-of-value metals to securing physical energy needs, removing a key structural buyer (central banks).

wti

the US oil is hanging in right at this 95 mark right between 95 and a hundred dollars Conflict-driven supply disruptions and attacks on energy infrastructure are creating upward price pressure and volatility, particularly in Brent, which spills over into the oil complex.

yields

The interviewee states the Fed 'cannot cut rates' and is 'tightening things up' due to high energy prices and inflation. This implies a hawkish hold or potential for further tightening, which would keep yields elevated or push them higher in the short term.

wti

what futures markets are telling us is that this would be relatively short lived, and they would be temporary Minister acknowledges current elevated oil prices but frames them as temporary based on futures market signals, implying upward pressure is present but expected to be brief.