dxy

The dollar is off about 8.4% from its cyclical high on the 13th of January 2025... It's been moving sideways actually for a couple months... When people keep talking about how the dollar is collapsing, they're simply not telling the truth... The dollar's not collapsing. It may decline in the long run, but it also may do well. Dollar has declined from recent highs but still significantly above longer-term lows; currently moving sideways with acknowledgment of potential long-term decline but not imminent collapse.

metals

We can be very bullish about silver prices in the long run rising above last year's $40 average price, while at the same time saying we don't think prices will rise sharply from the intraday high of $121.79 last Thursday... Anybody who sees something rise 135% in two months ought not to be surprised to see it fall back and give up half of that increase when the speculative fervor dissipates. Recent sharp decline seen as natural correction after speculative spike; metals still in bull market long-term but short-term caution due to speculative excess being worked out.

metals

for tactical trade... commodities give it a downturn, give it a sell off, I think it's time to re-engage. The interviewee remains overweight materials, views the supply backdrop as favorable, and sees the recent correction as a buying opportunity ('time to re-engage'). This indicates a positive directional view, but the context of recent high volatility and a 'tactical' call suggests caution, not a 'sharp up' conviction.

metals

I think the one word to describe the metal's mark markets right now is volatile... I wouldn't trust a rally just like I wouldn't trust a sell-off... I expect it to continue frankly. Cites large recent price swings in gold as evidence of the current whippy, two-way trading environment.

ndx

futures, eminence and nastict, both higher on the day Attributed to positive reaction (beat-and-raise) from a major software/AI component (Palantir) of the index.

dxy

Dollar index sliding in this overnight session a bit. Dollar index 9747 ticking a bit here since start of recording. Seeing dollar index come off. Hawkish Fed rhetoric starting to dissolve according to speaker. Euro currency getting boost. Inverse correlation with metals suggests dollar weakness.

metals

April gold big snapback in the overnight session up about $282 sitting at 4935. High was 4974 just below 5,000 mark. March silver looking at the verge of another breakout to the upside. Dollar index sliding helping boost gold market due to 92-93% inverse correlation. Gold up 13% year to date. Potential for FOMO buying and algorithmic trading if gold breaks 5,000.

ndx

NASDAQ up 100 points. Stock futures up a bit here with S&P 500 firmly over 7,000 mark. Strong earnings with Palantir blockbuster beat and other major companies reporting. Positive momentum in broader markets with European stocks at record highs and Asian stocks bouncing back.

wti

Now we're seeing crude oil futures stabilizing pushing a bit back up here 6225. Recovering from big selloff yesterday on Iran talks. Stabilization suggests potential rebound after sharp decline.

dxy

Dollar as safe haven, no it's not, at least not this week, but maybe next week. Explicitly states the dollar's safe-haven role is currently broken, implying near-term volatility and lack of clear direction.

metals

I do think that the bull market in industrial metals, precious metals is still intact.

yields

To me, the rise in long term interest rates, the elevated levels should be a big focus of people. Cites RBA rate hike as evidence global inflation pressures persist, supporting a view of higher yields.

dxy

You're gonna see a weaker dollar against the creditor currencies... the dollar fall against the yuan... against the yen... against the euro... versus the Swiss Franc. The dollar's weakness is a direct consequence of the system unwind: loss of reserve status, weaponization, and devaluation needed to manage debt. A 'currency system transition' implies a long-term downtrend for the dollar.

metals

Gold is going back into the system as a reserve asset and rising in price... Gold could have way more upside than many people think even possible. The entire thesis is built on the 'Free Gold' unwind, where gold absorbs global surpluses. He cites JP Morgan's $8500+ target and historical parallels (1930, 1972, 2002) as evidence of a major, sustained move. Also bullish on base metals (copper, nickel) due to inflationary bottlenecks.

ndx

NASDAQ is down 45% versus gold since early 2024... Bitcoin's just levered NASDAQ... with capital leaving, Bitcoin's reacting to that. Views NASDAQ as a 'capital flow phenomenon' vulnerable to outflows (e.g., China stopping purchases). Sees a continued 'cool off in tech names' and shift to metals for the next few quarters. Does not 'love equities broadly here.'

metals

I don't believe that our days of $100 silver and 5,000 ounce gold are behind us here... I believe that gold will continue to march on. And the same thing with silver. Views recent sharp sell-off as healthy correction after massive gains. Fundamentals (supply deficits, industrial demand, Basel 3, central bank buying) support higher prices long-term. Expects bottoming process this week, then resumption of uptrend.

yields

You see the yield curve steepening to interest rate cuts June and December. It's the exact same as before. Explicitly mentions yield curve steepening to rate cuts in June and December, indicating expectation for lower yields.

metals

When I talk to our gold strategist... he thinks the uncertainty story is going to stick around this year... you kind of do this with one hand and you do this with the other hand... that's what's been going on a lot in my world. She directly references her firm's gold strategist view that uncertainty supports gold. She describes a market dynamic where investors use gold to hedge equity/macro risks separately from their equity allocations, implying ongoing demand but also susceptibility to shifts in risk sentiment, leading to volatility.

ndx

AI jitters coming back into the market... the PE multiple... hit a ceiling... top 10 market cap names... priced for perfection, not a lot of room for error... healthy appetite... for diversification away from some of these big mega cap growth names. She explicitly cites high valuations, a ceiling on multiples, and investor desire to diversify away from mega-cap tech, pointing to near-term pressure and a lack of catalysts for significant upside.

rut

The Russell 2000 didn't do well after the pick... we saw it get hit again on Friday... the short-term trade equivalent is the Russell 2000 because fast-money hedge funds like to bid it up on Fed dovishness and sell it off when their dovishness goes too far... they're just not cheap anymore. Explicitly notes poor performance post-Fed news, frames it as a speculative short-term trade vulnerable to Fed sentiment shifts, and states valuations are no longer attractive.

dxy

We think that the combination of deregulation here in the United States, big tax changes... the returns on invested capital in the United States are going to go up relative to those elsewhere in the world... Trumponomics... is like Reaganomics on steroids. If you look at what happened to the dollar under Reagan, it doubled. Explicit forecast of dollar strength based on anticipated policy-driven capital returns and historical analogy to Reagan era.

metals

What you're seeing here is just a spillover where... Huge positions have been built up in the precious metals particularly in silver and gold... All of that is starting to pare back people losing money in one space. After quickly rush. to close position somewhere else. It's a domino effect... It's a question of... Sell fast. I'll ask questions later. Describes a panicked, forced liquidation across correlated trades (metals, tech, currencies), indicating a sharp, disorderly sell-off.

wti

It's evening, govd oil today. Not so much. because of the Iran situation more because positioning into the weekend was very long. in oil futures contracts. People are having drum-wide those positions because... They're costing you out somewhere else. Attributes oil's decline to long position unwinding as part of the broader risk-off/P&L survival theme, not geopolitics.

dxy

Our view is that we'll see further decline in the dollar over the course of 2026. Expects a gradual easing, which would be supportive for commodities. A weaker dollar would induce more investor appetite for the sector.

metals

The price came down... there was this massive round of profit taking... I think there is some downside left to it. The markets will continue to be extremely volatile. Describes a 'tremendous speculative bubble' that popped due to profit-taking and technical unwinding, with more near-term volatility expected.

dxy

I think the responsibility that the dollar will grant regain some of its footing... So I think the dollar could have further to go. Kevin Warsh nomination improves Fed credibility, may imply fewer rate cuts than previously expected. Positioning was overstretched short dollar.

ndx

We are the least optimistic on US technology stocks, the magnificent 7, then we have been in easily a decade. We believe that there's a rotation occurring that's coming out of them into emerging markets and hard assets. Cites concentration risk as eight of the ten largest global stocks are US tech. Expects continued rotation away during the year.

ndx

The question is are they going to reassert their leadership for 2026. Our view is that they likely will.

yields

higher rates, less credibility and ultimately a lower fed put... As the term as trust goes down, term premium goes up... the yield curve steepens Warsh's appointment reduces market trust in Fed, increasing term premium and steepening yield curve, with market already showing reaction since nomination.

dxy

I think you got to counter trend in the next couple of months for sure. Dollar oversold, EM local currency bonds frothy, White House nervous, high probability of counter-trend rally near-term despite long-term bear market.

wti

This could be a great year for broadening out the commodity trade... the coal names, and the crude natural gas and oil. Capital migrating from financial assets to hard assets includes oil; part of sustained commodity bull market.

yields

"he can low rates pretty significantly and not be inflationary because his main concern is that the large inflationary pressure is built up from the huge balance sheet... which means that he can actually allow rates to drop." The 'Warsh maneuver' explicitly involves lowering rates while draining liquidity to combat inflation stemming from the balance sheet.

yields

the long term horizon for rates is that they will go down Near-term stability (no cuts until at least May) suggests yields won't drop immediately, but long-term direction is downward.

dxy

Mentions 'weakening of fiat currencies' as condition driving gold, and geopolitical shocks leading to weaker dollar - suggests dollar vulnerability amid global uncertainty and potential Fed policy shifts.

metals

we've hit our 12th record high here today... what we've got so far this year is a lot of people stepping in aggressively and momentum that's helping push this price higher. That's what we've seen. 20% percent in the first month FOMO driving aggressive buying, though expects volatility to clear speculation. Structural factors (portfolio diversification, bond correlation issues) provide fundamental support.

dxy

Firmer dollar after weakness that would be consistent with his views... Hawkish Fed chair prospect supports dollar strength.

ndx

Risk assets sold off on Warsh speculation. 'Risk assets which had such a big run to the upside. All they needed was a little bit of... uncertainty to get something of a correction.'

yields

We saw yield rise... Initial reaction to Warsh speculation was higher yields. Long rates reflect uncertainty about inflation if the Fed cuts aggressively.

metals

gold and silver doing so well, especially at the start of the year. That created FOMO and that was a Govore text sucking all risk appetite towards the precious metals trade. Lee describes a strong, FOMO-driven rally in precious metals at the start of the year, implying upward momentum.

ndx

I think the markets are going to actually continue to do really well this year. Based on strong earnings delivery, expected rate cuts helping profits, and AI growth narrative being in early innings.

yields

we're gonna obviously, he rates probably go down, you know. this year Mentioned in context of helping corporate profits.

yields

I still think rates are too restrictive, as I've made very clear. I still think we need to cut and straight substantially further from here. However, given that we've made some progress reducing rates, We can now sort of, I think, in my view, proceed at a slower pace of about a quarter point per meeting. Miran is a dissenter for lower rates. He argues inflation is not a real problem (2.2% after adjustments) and the labor market has slack, justifying further cuts, albeit at a slower pace.

dxy

We're going to see a bounce in the dollar short term.

metals

We're going to see the pullback in precious metals.

dxy

Expects dollar weakness to continue, particularly Eurodollar with target of 122. Technical flows from real money investors and systematic accounts can perpetuate dollar weakness trends.

metals

Favors short copper as a tail-risk position tied to data center buildout story. Copper looks elevated with expectations that could lead to lower price action if downside risk emerges.

yields

Economic outlook is strong and warrants no further cuts from the Fed this year.

dxy

the dollar trend, we might see a correction because it's been very sharp... I think the trend overall is there for a dollar weakness in 2026.

yields

I do believe we will be flirting with the dangerous zone of 5% when we go above the 20 and 30 years. Due to fiscal imbalances weighing on bond market.

metals

Right now live on the air. I've got gold down 5% I've got silver down 13.7%. So these are big moves. Metals were extremely overbought (gold RSI >90), moved to hyperbolic levels recently, experiencing volatility.

dxy

we're projecting that dollar will decline about 1% annually over the next decade Dollar weakness cited as key driver for international market outperformance; projected annual decline suggests gradual, sustained downward trend rather than sharp drop.

dxy

the dollar is gaining a little bit of strength... The dollar is trying to bounce and move higher here it's up about half a percent... Linked to hawkish Fed speculation (Warsh), which is seen as dollar-positive.

metals

silver sub 100 now down around 12%... gold... down about 5%... a pullback for now. Guest describes a sharp, liquidity-driven selloff with bearish technical divergences, indicating a current downtrend.

dxy

the weaker dollar, the bearish dollar trade, I think is here to stay Pro-cyclical phase in cycle, global growth trends, Fed on hold

metals

half a percentage point increase in the gold allocations by private investors means gold at 6,000... over the next couple of years, gold at 8,000 Demand for diversification, private investors increasing allocations, emerging market central bank buying, industrial demand from data centers

dxy

I would not be surprised... that you actually see a bid in the US dollar... for the next couple of days Based on Warsh's hawkish reputation reducing uncertainty and potentially tighter monetary policy outlook.

metals

It's just a low liquidity market... you're starting to see a lot more intraday reactions, aggressive reactions... silver pull back around 11% today. But these intraday moves would not be surprised if it goes green as well here. Describes silver as having collapsed liquidity with speculative trading causing extreme price swings in both directions.

yields

I would not be surprised... that you actually see... a bear steepener basically a selling out of the longer duration treasuries, tens, 20s, 30s, and then buyers getting into the two year Treasury. Expectation based on Kevin Warsh's hawkish monetary policy stance as new Fed chair nominee.

dxy

We're going to see a bounce in the dollar But speaker1 notes 'dollar move is already getting overdone' suggesting limited upside.

metals

we're going to see the pullback in precious metals Part of broader market correction/catalyst from Warsh appointment.

ndx

pullback in stocks Part of temporary correction/catalyst from Warsh appointment - 'short-term turning point that might last for a couple of weeks'.

metals

Now this year you're hearing lots of... conversations about metals. There's been a metal frenzy. that certainly plays into possible... weakening of the dollar the dollar debasement. Mentioned in context of current year trends and record flows into metals ($216B, 100%+ increase).

dxy

In the very near term, that could come under pressure so you could have a stronger dollar as a bit of a reaction relative to expectations.

yields

Real action will be on the right side, so there'll be a more rate volatility, more uncertainty about the path of rates.

metals

We are likely to have another two cuts this year... This will continue to support ETF buying of gold. Lower Fed rates make gold cheaper to hold; ETF positioning has increased with rate cuts.

wti

We expect prices to move below $60 a barrel for Brent. Fundamental oversupply is the primary driver, but a current $8-10 risk premium exists due to geopolitical tensions.

yields

We are likely to have another two cuts this year, only later in the year. Implies downward pressure on yields from anticipated Fed easing.

yields

the fact that cost of capital is coming down, rates coming down and inflation coming down Gray explicitly states rates are coming down as part of the positive investment environment. He also mentions cost of capital coming down and spreads at low levels as helpful for deal environment.

yields

higher yields for longer, particularly affecting the 30-year part of the curve, heading back in the direction of around 5% Market reaction to perception that Kevin Warsh is a more hawkish, rules-based candidate than others, which would set a higher floor for yields.

dxy

weakness in the dollar Explicitly mentions dollar weakness and connects it to macro instability and uncertainty, suggesting continued pressure.

metals

the parabolic move that we've seen in precious metals both gold and silver Describes move as 'parabolic' and connects it to macro instability and uncertainty, indicating strong upward momentum.

dxy

We think the dollar can still tactically weaken a little more from here. Cites market positioning and narrative tailwinds, but sees limits due to strong US fundamentals and potential election-related upswing.

metals

Links gold's strength to 'sell America, hedge America' and diversification due to discontent with US policy, implying continued supportive sentiment.

ndx

I think it's great for stock markets... In the near term yes I think it's good for the stock market at least this year... My preview for this year coming in was you're going to get a strong beginning of the year.

dxy

the dollars weeker, I think that's lean... if you want to fix a trade balance, you need a weeker dollar. So that's what's happening. He states the dollar is weaker and links it to a policy need (fixing trade balance), implying the trend has a fundamental driver and is likely to persist.

wti

I think potentially by then the year will be low than that. He identifies $65 as a key level to test a short position, notes traders use geopolitical spikes to sell, and explicitly states the price will be lower by year-end ('by then the year').

metals

Gold down 7% today, silver down 17... Having that happen back to back... This is all leverage. Attributed to flushing out of retail/speculative momentum money following parabolic rise, not fundamental policy changes.

dxy

We have a more balanced view on the dollar as a whole, we do still see a flatter downside tail risk for the dollar compared to the upside... the stars have aligned for the markets to trade a weaker dollar. Unpredictable US policy, concerns over Fed independence, and real money hedging of US assets are catalysts for dollar weakness.

yields

We changed our call for the Fed, and we're no longer expecting any more cuts for them for this year... we think that they are likely to remain on hold now. Upbeat Fed message, strong data, sticky inflation, and broad support for holding rates indicate a pause in the cutting cycle.

dxy

A weak dollar which is a real tailwind for emerging markets. Describes weak dollar as a positive backdrop and tailwind for EM assets, implying she expects or sees it continuing.

dxy

President Trump first of all is open to a weaker dollar... a weaker dollar would help redress some of that imbalance in the United States Furman discusses Trump's openness to weaker dollar and its economic benefits, suggesting downward pressure on DXY.

yields

We're looking pretty close. and they just sounded happier than they've sounded in a while. Furman explicitly states Fed is close to cutting rates, implying lower yields ahead.

metals

Copper is still one of your best bets, the one of the most reliable ones right now. If we could get some kind of dip below $6 next week, that would be fantastic in my opinion, provide some value. I like the gold market... Bullish on gold (safe-haven, central bank buying), silver (alternative to gold, technical breakout), and copper (catch-up play, reliable). Seeks dips to buy. Direction is 'up' but with a preference for buying on weakness/dips, implying continued upward bias.

rut

I do like the Russell to the upside. If you look at those companies have reported an aggregate growth 200 of the Russell 2000 companies of 23.2% so we're seeing this broadening here in those markets. Cites strong earnings growth as reason for bullish view; part of rotation away from crypto.

dxy

Market is pricing in a gradual downtrend of the dollar.

metals

Whenever a gold dip is, the mentality now is to buy on dips instead of sell, take profit when it goes higher. Cites finite supply, strong demand from central banks and ETFs, and record-level flows as reasons for a structural bull market.

yields

We see two to three cuts. Later half the year... Second half you see a bit of unemployment ticking up and that's when we see there will be more cuts priced in the market.

wti

I think the downside, especially in oil prices, today will be rather limited.

yields

Monetary policy is not on a preset course and we will make our decisions on a meeting by meeting basis. The Fed is maintaining flexibility and data-dependence, suggesting no predetermined direction for rates/yields in the near term.

dxy

People are looking to diversify away from the US dollar... they've been massively overexposed and they're looking to reduce that exposure. Structural diversification away from USD due to overexposure, lack of attractive alternative currencies leading to sustained pressure on dollar as reserve currency diversification continues.