Cole Smead sees a tech mania reminiscent of past bubbles, warns that AI capex math doesn't add up, and believes energy markets are underpricing a real supply crisis. He is heavily invested in energy producers and sees opportunity in Canadian oil sands. He is cautious on tech, calling the rally a 'mania' that will end poorly.

St. Louis Fed President Musalem sees the balance of risks shifted towards inflation, making a rate hike possible if disinflation stalls. He views AI as currently a demand-side pressure on inflation, not a supply-side relief, and warns against relying on productivity gains to ease price pressures. He expects new Fed Chair Walsh to ask deep questions about operations and communications.

Priya Misra is more concerned about inflation than the job market. She sees current inflation as supply-shock induced (tariffs, energy) rather than demand-led, unlike 2022. The bar to hike is still high; the Fed will move to neutral and stay on pause watching data. She is bullish on the long end of the Treasury curve given weakening global growth and the 10-year above 4.50%.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey discusses AI cyber risks for UK banks, the need for international cooperation on AI regulation, the interconnectedness of private credit with the banking system, and the UK's evolving approach to stablecoin regulation and digital currency.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey discusses the need for international cooperation on AI cyber risks in banking, the interconnectedness of private credit with the traditional banking system, and the UK's evolving approach to stablecoin regulation. He expresses skepticism about the need for a retail central bank digital currency, favoring exploration of tokenized deposits instead.

Andrew Bailey discusses AI cyber risks, the need for international cooperation on AI model access, and the interconnectedness of private credit with the banking system. He also touches on stablecoin regulation, tokenized deposits as a preferred path for digital payments, and the Bank of England's use of AI for data analysis and communication.

Liz Wilkie reports that small businesses are in a solid position, with 55% feeling good about their business, but only 25% feel good about the economy due to rising costs and uncertainty. Despite survey hesitation, actual payroll data shows a four-month upward trend in hiring, indicating resilience. She also highlights the upcoming wave of business transitions as 40% of owners plan to retire in the next decade.

Stephanie Aliaga discusses the AI investment cycle, noting a shift from training to inference driving a potential $1 trillion in CapEx. She acknowledges ROI uncertainty but argues early productivity gains (e.g., coding) and infrastructure demand justify spending. She sees global broadening in EM Asia and Latin America but is cautious on Europe and politically unstable regions.

Secretary Hegseth's speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue notably omitted Taiwan and Iran. He reiterated US power projection and urged allies to increase defense spending, criticizing European allies for not doing enough. Asian allies perceive a more transactional US relationship, contingent on them meeting US demands.

Secretary Hegseth's speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue notably omitted Taiwan and Iran. He reiterated US power projection and urged allies to increase defense spending, criticizing European allies for insufficient contributions. Asian allies perceive a more transactional US relationship, contingent on their compliance with US demands.

Venu Krishna notes European allocators are now re-engaging with the US equity rally. He argues the AI narrative has broadened beyond hyperscalers to include memory, storage, and industrials. He is not worried about mega IPOs crowding out other investments, as history shows no meaningful impact. His main concern is what could break the AI narrative, and he flags rising 10-year yields (approaching 5%) as a risk to valuations.

Haslinda Amin analyzes the US-China relationship, noting a shift in tone from Defense Secretary Hegseth who avoided mentioning Taiwan, a key red line. She discusses the importance of communication to avoid economic disruptions like China withholding critical minerals, and the US need for NATO and Indo-Pacific partners to counter China's military buildup. The US policy on Taiwan remains unclear.

Haslinda Amin analyzes the Shangri-La Dialogue, noting a shift in US tone towards China (constructive, partner-like) and the importance of communication to avoid crises like the October mineral export halt. She highlights that Taiwan was notably absent from Hegseth's speech, signaling a potential policy reassessment. NATO allies are responding to US pressure by committing to 5% defense spending, but the US needs both European and Indo-Pacific partners to counter China's military buildup.

Brian Belski, a committed bull since 2009, argues that small and midcap stocks are dramatically undervalued relative to mega-cap tech. He expects earnings revisions to shift from large caps to the rest of the S&P 500, driving a market broadening that favors active stock pickers.

Belski sees the market transitioning from momentum to earnings-driven, expecting a pullback but staying invested. He favors small/mid caps long-term, expects yields to fall, and is underweight mega-cap tech. He advises separating investing from speculation.

Jamie Dimon views the market as exuberant but not necessarily irrational, citing strong earnings and AI spending. He warns that low credit spreads and interest rate gravity pose risks to asset prices, though JPMorgan is prepared for various rate scenarios. He praises SpaceX's innovation but deflects on valuation.

Pauline Yang of Altimeter Capital defends Anthropic's near-trillion-dollar valuation by highlighting revenue growth from $9B to $47B run-rate, making the multiple cheaper than the prior round. She sees AI as the largest TAM in generations, believes both Anthropic and OpenAI can be multi-trillion-dollar winners, and notes Anthropic's strong enterprise execution in early 2025.

The AI sector is experiencing a massive investment surge, with Anthropic's revenue growing 500% in five months. However, the capital-intensive nature of AI infrastructure raises concerns about long-term profitability. Private equity firms like Apollo are financing GPU purchases for AI cloud providers, highlighting the scale of capital required. The race to go public between Anthropic and OpenAI is intensifying, with OpenAI likely wanting to go first to control the narrative.

Rising bond yields are being digested by strong earnings and AI momentum. The market is resilient, and even in a downside scenario with oil at $150, a US recession is hard to see. AI is the key driver, and the trend is seen as macro-agnostic.

John Authers discusses the UK's fiscal crisis, where political instability is driving gilt yields higher, limiting government spending. He compares the UK's vulnerability to the US, noting the UK's dependence on foreign capital and the bond market's role as a constraint on policy, unlike the currency market in the past.

Jason Gaeler discusses the grain market's uncertainty during planting season, noting that recent soybean rallies have been erased despite Chinese purchases. He highlights the disconnect between input costs and current prices, and advises using options strategies to manage risk from geopolitical tensions and weather uncertainties.

Ludovic Subran discusses the market's pricing of a potential US-Iran deal, noting equity markets have already rallied on AI and fundamentals, but bond markets may see a relief rally. He expects the ECB to hike twice but warns of recession risks in Europe later in the year, and highlights the risk of a 'cliff effect' from concentrated AI-driven market gains.

Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures analyzes the grain and livestock markets, noting a rough finish for grains due to crude oil headwinds and technical breakdowns in corn and wheat. Soybeans show relative strength, especially new crop November. Livestock markets are choppy with lean hogs breaking down. Key technical levels and weather forecasts are critical for near-term direction.

Richard Clode views Dell's earnings as the next leg of the AI trade, driven by demand for AI servers and CPUs. He argues the AI market is not zero-sum but expanding exponentially, and investors should own leaders across all vectors (GPUs, CPUs, storage). He is confident in the monetization of AI, citing Anthropic's rapid revenue ramp, and sees Nvidia's new shareholder return program as a key inflection point.

Catherine Neiss is more concerned about growth than inflation in the Eurozone. She expects inflation to peak at 3.5% this summer, but sees the energy shock as primarily an economic activity shock. She believes the ECB will hike 25bps in June but in a dovish way, giving themselves room to cut if the economy deteriorates. She warns that political uncertainty in the UK is extending uncertainty for the rest of the year.

Chris Retzlaff, portfolio manager of Needham Small Cap Growth Fund, is highly bullish on small caps, driven by infrastructure buildout, military modernization, and AI-related spending. He notes consumer weakness but sees strong expansion in tech and industrial sectors. He advises selective investing and rebalancing from overperforming names.

S&P 8,000 target driven by earnings, not valuation expansion. 24% earnings growth expected this year, half from AI infrastructure stocks. Narrow breadth is a yellow flag but broadening expected long-term. Lower oil prices would help rest of market participate. IPO supply manageable vs $1 trillion+ in buybacks. Rate volatility above 50bps in a month would hurt equities.

The AI trade has strong earnings support, especially in memory with long-term contracts. Markets are concentrated, but opportunities exist in the broader AI supply chain (compute, memory). For China, selectivity is key, focusing on tech/industrial names. Short-term inflation is expected but not structural.

St. Louis Fed President Musalem sees the Fed's real policy rate as below neutral, with inflation risks tilted to the upside. He warns against relying on AI for near-term disinflation, as AI buildout currently adds demand pressure. He sees two scenarios: one requiring a rate hike if inflation persists, another with cuts if the economy weakens. He disagrees with market pricing of a 2027 hike, focusing on data dependency.

John Authers discusses the UK's fiscal crisis, where rising gilt yields reflect political instability and limited fiscal headroom. He notes yields are now higher than during Liz Truss's mini-budget crisis, though the current situation is a slow-motion car wreck rather than a sudden accident. The bond market has replaced the currency market as the main constraint on UK governments, and the breakdown of the two-party system with Greens and Reform UK both inclined to spend more is worrying for gilt investors. The UK's problems are a precursor to similar issues in the US, which has doubled its debt-to-GDP ratio to 120% over 20 years.