Sharon Bell argues a quick resolution to the Iran war would help European equities due to lower tech exposure and higher sensitivity to energy costs. She warns that high bond yields (US/UK ~5%) provide an attractive alternative to equities, but sectors like tech, utilities, and industrials can grow through the pain. UK small-caps face a 'double whammy' of fiscal vulnerability and political uncertainty.

Mark Haefele is bullish on the S&P but even more bullish on the rally broadening out globally. He argues the positive impact from AI capex is 2x the negative impact from higher oil prices on global GDP. He does not see the Fed hiking anytime soon, as inflation is largely energy-driven and wage-price spirals are absent. He remains positive on gold due to de-dollarization concerns.

Former Chicago Fed President Charles Evans discusses the Fed's inflation challenge, noting it has been above target for 5-6 years. He suggests the new Fed Chair Warsh may need to hold rates longer or even hike, depending on Middle East conflict outcomes. Evans expresses concern about persistent inflation and structural labor market changes from AI.

Frank Lee is bullish on Marvel Technology, upgrading it to Buy with a $300 price target. He sees Marvel as a key player in custom silicon and networking (optical transceivers) for AI data centers, benefiting from a massive diffusion of hyperscaler capex. He notes that memory prices (HBM) could double next year and that the AI cycle is infrastructure-driven, not consumer-driven, making it less price-elastic.

Equities remain favored but preferences shift from Korea to China tech. Gold is a good entry point due to central bank buying. Dollar upgraded vs G10, especially yen. IPO wave may slow but not derail rally. Hidden leverage in levered single stock ETFs is a concern.

David Rubenstein sees equity markets fueled by AI IPO anticipation and potential war end, but bonds are pressured by US debt and difficulty lowering rates. He advises realistic return expectations (high single to low double digits) and warns against chasing outsized gains. He is cautious on near-term rate cuts and sees AI as ultimately positive for jobs.

Greg Fleming sees major strengths in the US economy from AI-driven productivity and a surge in new business applications, but highlights major challenges from persistent inflation, high oil prices, and the unsustainable fiscal debt trajectory. He expects the Fed under Kevin Warsh to be cautious initially but potentially cut rates later if AI productivity provides cover, though the bond market will constrain policy. AI's impact on jobs is a key societal risk.

Ian Lyngen is focused on the risk of weakening real personal consumption as nominal wage gains lag headline inflation. He believes the Fed's most reasonable hawkish response is to delay rate cuts, not hike. He expects new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to reduce forward guidance, which is implicitly hawkish and volatility-enhancing. He sees 10-30 year yields driven by global macro and expects breakevens to move lower.

Jim Caron of Morgan Stanley argues that the current market requires selectivity and diversification across equities and fixed income, as it is no longer a zero-rate world. He expects the rally to broaden beyond tech/semis into small and mid-caps. For bonds, he advises focusing on income and carry from short-term high quality bonds rather than relying on duration for returns.

Sam McKinney from KeyBanc discusses the steel market's prolonged pricing upcycle driven by supply constraints, not demand. Data centers are a minor demand driver (~1.5% of US steel). Tariffs have reduced imports 25% YTD. Mills maintain discipline, keeping inventories lean. Diesel costs up 50% due to Iran war, passed to customers. Steel pricing upcycle unusually long at 9 months, peak expected Aug/Sep.

Tech has come full circle after the Iran war selloff. Earnings season was remarkable with 25% S&P 500 earnings growth. Consensus expects high-teens growth for each remaining quarter. The typical midterm election pattern is for markets to buy protection (sideways to down) before the election, then rally in Q4 (21 of 23 midterms saw positive Q4, average +7%). Mega IPOs are not a concern - they represent only 0.12% of S&P market cap and historically occur during strong equity markets.

BlackRock's Naveen Segal expects the Fed to hike rates under new Chair Kevin Warsh, citing a strong US economy with high CapEx and AI tailwinds. The market is pricing in rate hikes by December, with 2-year Treasury yields rising to 4.14%.

Markets rational - more chaotic world creates more spending (government on resilience, companies rerouting supply chains). Bond yields rising because growth expected to be okay, not recession. Central banks shouldn't hike but will likely make gestures. Big opportunity in short rates. Resolution likely as incentives on both sides get acute - 80% of Strait energy goes to Asia, China cannot risk global recession. European trade and cyclical parts of market depressed, will react if resolution comes. UK political risk premium already in price.

A potential US-Iran peace deal removes a key market overhang. The market is driven by two tails: the left tail of higher rates/inflation from oil supply bottlenecks, and the right tail of the AI boom. If the left tail is removed (10-year yield stays below 4.5%), the right tail can continue. The 4.5% yield level is critical as it matches the S&P 500's PE of 22. Real rates have been driving the move, not inflation expectations. The market is not overly stretched when considering operating margins, earnings growth, and credit spreads.

Kathy Entwistle advises caution amid high equity valuations, recommending diversification into real assets (energy, gold, silver), infrastructure, and small caps. She suggests reducing bond duration and increasing evergreen alternatives as non-correlated hedges, while viewing any pullback as a buying opportunity.

Chris Giancarlo views prediction markets as a new form of derivatives, not a new asset class. He argues they should be regulated as marketplaces at the federal level, unlike sportsbooks. He estimates the CFTC needs 10-20% more resources. He sees the industrialization of crypto happening now.

Masahiro Kihara, President and CEO of Mizuho Financial Group, discusses the bank's record profit forecast of ¥1.3 trillion despite Iran war uncertainty. The war is affecting Japan through higher energy prices and potential supply disruptions, with GDP growth expected to fall below 1%. He believes the BOJ should hike in June or July as core-core CPI is at 2.3%. He sees the Japanese stock market as 'a little bit overpriced' but corporate action momentum continues. Mizuho is expanding to Australia with 200-300 staff and spending about $1B annually on AI.

Geopolitical tensions near Strait of Hormuz push oil higher, while gold and silver rally on falling yields. Key economic data (consumer confidence, core PCE) and a 2-year note auction are the week's main events. Copper faces resistance at 6.48-6.50, support at 6.36-6.38.

Kevin Hincks discusses a sharp drop in crude oil due to a leaked US-Iran MOU, boosting stock futures. He notes a rotation from Nvidia into memory stocks like Micron and SanDisk. Mortgage applications fell sharply as rates rose, but the housing outlook is turning positive for H2.

Jane Foley expects central banks to talk tough but hope they don't have to hike as much as markets price. ECB on cusp of hiking, BoJ almost certain to hike, BoE may talk tough instead. USD benefits medium-term from US growth resilience and tech flows, despite short-term rate dynamics.

Katrina Dudley highlights persistent energy-driven inflation causing consumer fragility, with inflation expectations above 4%. She sees the Fed balancing inflation and employment, expecting data dependency to continue under Kevin Warsh. She advises a balanced portfolio approach, favoring equities due to strong earnings growth (30%+ in 2026) over valuation concerns.

Sheila Kahulu discusses the challenge of which stocks get 'punted' from index funds due to the massive size of Musk's (SpaceX, etc.) offerings. The market only cares about hypergrowth names tied to AI and aerospace.

Ed Yardeni is strongly bullish, coining the term 'FEMO' (Fabulous Earnings Momentum) to describe the market. He argues this is not a bubble driven by hype but by strong fundamentals. He believes the 'Roaring 2020s' scenario is intact, with productivity growth potentially reaching 3-4%, offsetting wage inflation. He sees the current oil spike as annoying but not leading to a wage-price spiral, and expects a deal with Iran to eventually be reached.

The off-price retail model is working well in a consumer-pression environment, targeting lower household incomes ($50-60k). Burlington has perfected its off-price model over the past 5 years. Gas prices above $4/gallon will cause demand erosion that takes time to work through consumers' wallets. The US discretionary sector is trading at a lower relative valuation than during the GFC, signaling investor concern about demand risk.

Katrina Paglia is optimistic about the Clarity Act passing, which would define digital assets in US law. She sees tokenization of real-world assets as the next big opportunity. She is cautious on prediction markets due to compliance and insider trading concerns.

Ed Yardeni argues the current market rally is driven by 'FEMO' (Fabulous Earnings Momentum), not speculative 'FOMO'. He believes earnings are strong and accelerating, the economy is resilient without a recession risk, and the market's upward trend will continue, potentially reaching 10,000 on the S&P 500 by the end of the decade. He sees limited dip-buying opportunities.

Michael Swanson discusses the impact of the Iran war on fertilizer and food prices. He notes that fertilizer prices would drop quickly if the Strait of Hormuz reopened, but wage inflation is a bigger long-term driver of food prices. He highlights the protein craze driven by GLP-1 drugs as a lasting trend, and notes that consumers are trading down in some categories but still splurging on premium items like probiotic drinks.

Michael Swanson discusses the impact of the Iran war on fertilizer supplies and food prices. He notes that fertilizer prices would drop quickly if the Strait of Hormuz reopened, even before supply arrives. He highlights the protein craze driven by GLP-1 drugs as a lasting trend, not a fad. Consumers are trading down in some categories but splurging on premium beverages. Fruits and vegetables face the most pressure due to labor and diesel costs. Farmers are squeezed by rapid technological change.

Phil Streible discusses how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a softening dollar are providing support for gold and silver. He notes that markets have pushed back expectations for a Fed rate hike to March 2027, which is adding momentum to gold. Key economic data releases this week (consumer confidence, core PCE) will be pivotal for market direction. He provides technical levels for gold, silver, copper, and the S&P 500.

Chinese stocks face downward pressure from earnings revisions, profit margin compression, and government wariness of AI hype. A cautious stance is advised until profit margins improve and the government adopts a more hands-off approach.