wti

the price of oil will clearly be affected Blankfein states oil is part of supply chain and will be affected by Iran conflict, but sees disruption as temporary (not forever, maybe not even that long a while).

yields

We are moving to a different place in terms of real rates and nominal rates will come down. Productivity gains will bring down wage pressure and inflation after the energy shock, leading to lower rates. High real rates are unsustainable due to the large US debt burden.

wti

Oil was sub 60... now it's 90 plus. What's the next stop... does it go to 120. Discusses the surge as a current, impactful fact driving markets. Questions the ceiling ($120), implying upward momentum is present and uncertain, not that it has peaked.

yields

The move in the bond market... breakeven component... gone way up... driving rates, especially shorter maturities. Attributed directly to inflation fear from surging oil prices. Describes bonds as 'taking it on the chin' and the move as 'very evident'.

yields

I think we're right around neutral... we should stay at least around neutral... I think it could be on hold for quite some time. Hammack sees policy as neutral, not restrictive, with economy performing reasonably well. She expects rates to remain unchanged for an extended period while balancing inflation and labor market risks.

wti

Oil could surge above $100 per barrel A 6-week Hormuz shutdown (handling 20% of global oil) would cause structural repricing, not just volatility, with extreme scenarios pushing crude to $120+

metals

significant volatility in commodities, most notably energy and precious metals Commodity volatility rarely stays contained without affecting stock markets

wti

If it stays close, crude oil is strong, if it opens... gonna collapse Current price spike driven by short squeeze and geopolitical risk; natural gas example shows volatility pattern; producers will increase supply at higher prices

wti

If we start to get them going to $100 or more, and they prolonged, then you start to get into global inflation going up maybe 0.7. Oppenheimer provides explicit scenarios for oil price moves ($100+) and their macroeconomic impacts, clearly framing the current shock and a potential sharper upward move.

yields

I think we could be on hold for quite some time. Policy seen as around neutral, with two-sided risks. No indication of imminent cuts or hikes, suggesting yields stable.

wti

today with Brent Crude at $91 a barrel, there's an oil price shock... oil prices have moved higher. The host cites the current high price, and Myron acknowledges the move. No explicit forecast is given, but the context is discussing an existing price shock.

yields

I think we could be on hold for quite some time. Hammack explicitly states policy is around neutral and expects to be on hold. This implies no imminent driver for a significant move in yields in either direction, suggesting a sideways trend for the policy-sensitive front end of the curve over the medium term.

wti

The prices of some of the fuels like diesel and jet fuel are soaring. Nightingale's description of 'soaring' fuel prices, coupled with the explicit cause (Strait of Hormuz closure blocking 20% of supply), indicates a sharp upward move in oil and refined product prices in the short term.

wti

We've already seen an oil push-up above $91 a barrel. further upside on that? Yes, that is going to create a little bit of inflationary pressure. Explicitly notes oil already above $91 and expects further upside due to Iran conflict.

yields

if you looked at what happened to tenure treasuries right after the non-Farm Payroll Report came out. yields plunged quite dramatically. They then quickly reversed course Describes immediate plunge then reversal, indicating high volatility rather than sustained directional move.

yields

Because inflation's hot, it's going to look worse now with oil prices, at least on headline. Waller explicitly states that the oil shock will make inflation look worse in the near term ('headline'), which would typically put upward pressure on yields. However, he frames it as a temporary factor the Fed should look through, suggesting the move would be cautious and short-term.

wti

Front-month crude is up, call it 20%. The entire interview context is about a supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure. Kaiser discusses the risk of prices moving 'sharply and sustainably higher' if the conflict prolongs, and references the potential for attacks on oil infrastructure as an escalatory risk.

dxy

Dollars higher Strong US growth outlook relative to other economies and higher yield environment supports the dollar.

ndx

Continued focus on AI spending as a key economic driver, though high single-stock volatility indicates dispersion beneath low index volatility.

yields

Exactly. And that's exactly why... yields are higher. Strong economic acceleration, upside inflation risk, and potential Fed policy shift from cuts to hikes create upward pressure on yields.

wti

you're going to see a spike in gasoline prices Attributed to Middle East developments causing supply chain issues. Seen as temporary.

dxy

We think it can continue. It's all about the duration of the war and if it means the straight of almost remains closed. if it does. oil and gas prices every day should continue to go up. and that's very supportive for the dollar. Supports dollar through terms of trade, relative growth differentials (Europe underperforming US), and relative central bank reaction functions. Favors Eurodollar down.

wti

even though we could see oil prices going above 100, if they do, they're not going to stay there on a more structural basis Likelihood of prices staying very high for an economically meaningful time is lower than Russia-Ukraine due to military mismatch; assumes Strait reopens in a few months.

yields

GeForward duration has absolutely not proven itself to be a safe haven in the latest escalation... markets very focused on the near-term repricing higher. We've seen in inflation expectations... the Fed will not be cutting rates. Higher inflation expectations due to energy shock and a strong US economy mean the Fed will stay on hold, putting upward pressure on yields.

wti

The confusion about... how long energy prices are still going up has got people worried... they're going up rapidly this morning. Directly cites rapidly rising energy/gasoline prices as a key concern driving market anxiety, implying upward price pressure.

yields

It seems to be a status quo trade... now you're getting back to the trade of we don't know what's going to happen so we're just going to sit there. Initial shock from bad jobs data caused yields to drop, but inflation fears from oil caused a reversal, leading to indecision and range-bound trading.

ndx

I wouldn't be surprised to see a correction in the market... We're not even pullback zone yet, which is you know, five to 10%. The primary driver for a potential market correction is the oil price shock and its economic drag. He rules out a bear market and is long-term bullish, but sees clear near-term headwinds from oil.

wti

I think we'll see $100 oil next week. and remember it began the year under 60. I mean that. That would be a if we do get that that's that's a 70% increase in price. Based on geopolitical conflict (war) dragging on, shutdowns in the Gulf, global shipping issues that 'cannot be fixed overnight'.

ndx

I believe we're in the early days of an AI revolution and what's going to be a secular tech bull market. Views current software selloff as disconnected from reality, sees capex dollars continuing to increase despite jitters, believes military reliance on tech will increase due to geopolitical conflicts, and states we're less than a third of the way through the long-term thesis.

wti

On reopening the Strait of Hormuz: I'll give you a number... about two weeks. By providing a specific timeline for a key supply chokepoint to remain closed, Abrams explicitly signals that the supply disruption—a primary driver of the recent price spike—will persist for the short term, supporting elevated or rising prices.

wti

Brent crude backup over $84, I think that that is the... driver of short term, both ups and downs and volatility within the equity market is through the channel of... of oil Identifies oil as primary driver of short-term equity market volatility, with daily movements tied to oil price fluctuations.

wti

If there are going to be sustained persistent disruptions to energy facilities in the region, the Strait of Hormuz, that could actually lead oil prices to top $100. We estimate reaching up to $108 a barrel.

wti

The president's war has obviously disrupted oil prices in their way up over the last couple of days. The host explicitly states oil prices have gone up due to geopolitical conflict, framing the immediate shock. Kashkari does not contest this factual observation but discusses its uncertain duration and inflationary impact.

yields

Already the rates market is repricing the cuts we assumed this year. The repricing of expected Fed cuts is directly linked to inflationary concerns stemming from higher oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.

wti

if the straight-of-home was closed for long period of time, apparently, worst case scenario, yes, we will have an oil price that is above 100 dollars... modeling 110 in a worst case scenario 20% of supply missing, not all replaceable quickly; pipelines limited, can't instantly ramp up Venezuela or US fracking.

wti

One thing is oil. Everything second derivative of oil. Oil causing dollar squeeze, permeating risk spectrum; stocks don't like it.

wti

This is the highest oil's traded since September of 2023 and it's the biggest weekly jump since 2022 Host mentions WTI up 11% today, on brink of $90; panel discusses Qatar warning of $150/barrel and production shutdown risks.

wti

We know that sometime soon we're going to have a much more stable Venezuela with high stable energy output, a much more stable Iran with high stable energy output, which is going to be very good not only for energy markets but for risk premium around the world. Believes the military conflict will be resolved soon, leading to a restoration of supply and a decrease in the risk premium currently baked into prices.

wti

I'm just watching prices at the pump. They've jumped up over the last week you can see that when you drive around. Barkin explicitly notes the recent jump in pump prices (a direct function of oil/WTI prices) following geopolitical events. He frames it as an observed near-term increase but explicitly states uncertainty over whether it will be short-term or long-term, implying a 'short' term view on the direction.

wti

Triple digits. $120 possible. If nothing moves, could see $100 by early next week. Based on analysis of Strait of Hormuz blockage, storage filling up, production cuts, and supply shortages developing.

wti

You're seeing oil, it's not really spiking that much. He explicitly states oil is not spiking much and links US military escort of tankers to a political need to prevent oil prices from going through the roof before midterms to control inflation. This points to an expectation of contained, rangebound prices in the near term.

yields

Inflation is kind of going in the wrong direction right now. Feroli explicitly states inflation is moving the wrong way (core PCE rising) and links Middle East tensions to concerns about energy price pass-through. This suggests upward pressure on yields as the Fed remains on pause and inflation concerns persist.

dxy

We do have this general expectation that dollar probably does weaken... our long-term projection continues to be around 1.26 [for EUR/USD]. Administration wants weaker dollar, but near-term safe-haven flows provide support during 'hot conflict'. Expects Euro-dollar range 1.16-1.20s near-term, moving to 1.26 long-term.

yields

10-year Treasury yields again sitting at 4.12%. Quite elevated here. It's not sparking that typical safe haven bond buying yields are continuing to edge higher as investors really kind of monitor those latest developments that's going on with the conflict.

ndx

I think it's a secular bull market that continues to be led by tech. Entire interview is a bullish thesis on major tech/AI companies (Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, CrowdStrike, etc.) which dominate NDX. Sees current sell-off as a bottoming opportunity and is in 'year 3 of an 8-10 year build out'.

wti

We happen to have in terms of our kind of more bearish 6-12 month view on oil... that transition leads to the first leg lower in prices, perhaps around a month's time... and then the Next leg lower comes on the basis of peace deals... Ukraine Peace still happens towards the end of the summer. Layton explicitly outlines a two-phase bearish view for the medium term (6-12 months), contingent on conflict de-escalation and geopolitical resolutions. The direction is 'down' (not 'cautious down') as he presents it as Citi's 'baseline view' and core forecast for H2.

wti

I do think that energy prices are going to retreat once we start to see this situation in Iran start to subside. And our year-end forecast for oil is $55 to $60 per barrel. Assumes conflict duration of 3-4 weeks; longer would force revisit. China has incentive to reopen Strait of Hormuz. U.S. is net exporter, reducing impact.

wti

Longer this goes on, prices will gradually ratchet higher.

metals

We actually expect it to rise to $100 again over the course of this year. Based on CPM Group's analysis combining macroeconomic factors, supply/demand fundamentals, and technical analysis, with current price around $88-$90 driven by financial investor demand for protection against economic problems.

ndx

this is a buying opportunity McCarteny explicitly frames the geopolitical sell-off as a buying opportunity, citing strong underlying tailwinds like the 'AI revolution' and 'double digits earning boom.' She notes a 'flight to safety in large cap U.S. stocks,' which includes NDX constituents.

wti

if oil goes up and is sustained at 90 for a considerable point in time Presents a conditional, risk-based scenario from UBS: sustained $90 oil for six months would have a measurable negative economic impact (60 bps off consumer spending). This frames the direction as cautiously upward, dependent on conflict duration.

rut

The Russell's up 3% year to date. Part of his diversification thesis - small caps are performing better than tech/mega-caps YTD.

wti

I'm talking oil above 100, at which point you're probably going to end up with a global recession. War duration is key variable - short war (month) means contained prices, long war means oil above $100 and recession.

wti

This was a well-telegraphed geopolitical event. The crude market had already moved substantially over the past two months. The move we saw on Monday wasn't even in the top 50 moves in crude... The crude markets are very well supplied. Bessent argues the oil price spike was pre-priced and current supply is ample, suggesting near-term price pressure is limited despite geopolitical events.

wti

If current disruptions continue, we think oil prices can basically go up to a hundred, or a hundred dollars per barrel. Current price already includes $19 war premium. Further disruption, especially closure of Strait of Hormuz, would push prices sharply higher.

wti

If this would go on for weeks and months, then of course it represents a big macro shock... We're seeing a large geopolitical risk premium. Storage constraints could force production cuts if Strait closure prolonged.

wti

If the war with Iran is short and oil goes to 80, 90, 100, it would probably have a major effect. Explicitly states a scenario where oil prices rise sharply to $80-100 due to the conflict.

dxy

The US dollar did turn lower after reports that Iranian operatives made offers to discuss terms of ending the war... since then we saw the dollar index turn negative... jumped above 99 for the first time since mid January. The dollar index spiked above 99 on conflict/safe-haven flows, then turned negative on peace talk reports, showing sharp, news-driven swings in both directions.

metals

Even though gold is typically considered a safe haven asset, there are times when the pressure just becomes too intense leading to a liquidation event... They sold gold, they sold silver, and they sold platinum. Those were down very heavy during the session... Futures up here about 1.6% here today. Metals experienced a heavy sell-off (liquidation) followed by a sharp rebound overnight on dollar weakness, indicating high volatility driven by conflicting forces of safe-haven demand and dollar/rate pressure.

yields

10-year Treasury yields that spiked nearly 20 basis points over two sessions here hitting a multi-week high right around that 4.10%... as the Iranian conflict really driven those energies energy to surge reigniting the inflation fears Conflict-driven energy price surge is directly linked to reignited inflation fears, causing a sharp, rapid rise in yields.

dxy

If the war continues no question. The R-Sing is longer... the longer oil prices stay elevated, the lower the chance in the market's mind of continued Fed rate cuts, which also narrows the rate differential argument against the dollar. Flight to safety and reduced Fed cut expectations support dollar.

metals

I still like precious metals... I think that's a safest place. On the commodity side, copper structurally is just in such a bullish demand supply dynamic that I don't see that changing regardless of what happens with that on board. Haven asset during geopolitical risk; structural supply-demand for copper.

wti

I do not care about the spot price of oil. It goes to $100, $120. If it comes back in a week to two weeks, the economy will blink and not miss it. Geopolitical risk premium from Iran war; physical disruption to Strait of Hormuz.

metals

Long-term structural theme is still there... It's a time when we focus more on safe havens like gold and other real assets and gold fulfills that part of the equation.

yields

clearly now with the developments, if this ends up being sustained, the initial reaction will be what does this mean for inflation... we have seen the reaction when it comes to treasuries and across the curve yields are up

metals

by the end of the decade, I'm saying gold's going to be 10,000... I still say 10,000 by the end of the decade. Acknowledges a massive run has occurred and gold needs to digest/grind sideways in the short term, but maintains a long-term secular bull market thesis.

ndx

Strong advocacy to rotate capital into 'technology AI trade' and 'mag 7' as they have been 'hammered' and represent value. Sees S&P 500 reaching 8,000 driven by tech, indicating bullish NDX outlook.

wti

I think a temporary spike... oil's only up 6%... this is just a short-term blip. Views the geopolitical-driven surge as a transient event, not a sustained inflationary shock. Advises hedging at current high prices, expecting them to come down.

dxy

we're having a strengthening of the dollar Contrary to consensus view dollar would weaken this year

dxy

when you get panic... higher liquidity profile garners a premium... when people get fearful, that's where they go [to the dollar]. Explicitly states the dollar benefits from its liquidity during panic/risk-off events like the current geopolitical shock.

yields

only once before in 1990 did interest rates go up or bond sell-off... we're seeing the market kind of set the tone for where rates want to go. Draws parallel to 1990, a similar commodity-driven inflationary period following US involvement in conflict, suggesting the current situation is driving rates higher.

wti

the price of oil, of course, has risen, you know, the order of 10 percent, the price of... The West Texas benchmark is in fact over $80... the fear is that if the straight remains closed for many, many weeks that we will see a further run-up possibly into the triple digits in terms of oil prices. The interviewee describes a current price increase (~10%, WTI >$80) and outlines a conditional, fear-based scenario for a further significant rise ('triple digits') dependent on the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The core statement is about a current upward move and a risk of further upward movement, not a definitive forecast of a 'sharp up' move from current levels.