metals

We think so... There is a strong push... every government wants to take advantage of that 'just in case' trend... they're just trying to push the price higher. Cites government stockpiling (e.g., US Project Vault), supply restrictions (Indonesia nickel quotas), and strong price action in copper and aluminum.

wti

We still expect... for prices to revert back to around $60 a barrel on Brent. Fundamentals are weak with a 2 million bpd surplus; current strength is geopolitical. OPEC will bring back supply if price stays above $70.

yields

The 10-year yield is now higher on that Strong jobs data with lower unemployment, higher wages, and increased labor participation suggests higher interest rates and pushes back Fed rate cut expectations

dxy

Now a weak dollar is part of the story. It's added just over 200 of the 700 basis points of outperformance.

metals

'$10,000 gold, $15,000 gold, $20,000 gold'; 'gold is going to run the deficits...'; 'gold over long-term treasuries until the dollar is appropriately priced relative to gold' Gold is framed as the solution to the global sovereign debt bubble and the mechanism to settle US trade deficits. The price targets are orders of magnitude above current levels, indicating a 'sharp up' long-term view.

ndx

Warns of a 'whoosh down' for assets globally, potentially led by Bitcoin, in the first half of the year, linked to Japanese bond market contagion. This implies broad risk-off including tech/NDX. Also notes stocks will go up in dollars but down in gold terms over the cycle.

yields

That's why you see that 10-year-old taking up. and those are. Interst rate cuts sliding back. Strong jobs report with elevated wage growth pushes back Fed rate cut expectations, causing bond yields to rise.

dxy

they drive the dollar index lower Weak data fuels rate cuts, which weakens dollar; dollar is continuing its sell-off.

metals

We've got gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and copper all higher on the day. Supported by Fed easing expectations from weak data; silver up 6.5%; gold could break higher to 5450.

wti

you're also seeing crude oil prices tick up. Perhaps we were seeing some of the geopolitical tensions rising in the Middle East that's helped supporting it. Rising due to geopolitical tensions, but gold bulls would prefer lower oil to help CPI and Fed easing, suggesting the move is fragile or not fundamentally strong for gold.

yields

they drive yields lower Weak economic data fuels rate cut expectations, which push yields down.

dxy

The dollar is going to remain on the back foot for now. Cites a 4.2% undervaluation, Trump's desire for a weaker dollar, and damage from USD/JPY rate checks as reasons for continued weakness.

yields

A Fed-Treasury accord where we talk about potentially less Fed buying at the long end, all of that is a higher yield. For me, it still is a duration neutral and potentially steeper curve type of discussion. His thesis is based on a regime change and a shift in Fed/Treasury dynamics reducing demand for long-dated Treasuries.

dxy

I think people will see more dollar downside in the short term. Believes the dollar stays under pressure due to stagflationary data dynamic and yield curve steepening. Also views dollar weakness as the longer-term sustainable trend.

ndx

I am worried that equities have a big move downside in the next couple of weeks. Cites the rotation in tech stocks and the broader dynamic not being great for stocks/risk assets as reasons for concern.

ndx

the fact we haven't set a high in the NASDAQ 100 uh since October Joe Mazzola explicitly states the Nasdaq 100 has not made a new high since October, indicating a lack of upward momentum. His focus on rotation into other areas (software, equal-weight) further supports a view of sideways or rangebound action for the NDX itself, as money moves out of the largest constituents.

dxy

In the US, we are likely to see rate cuts later in the year that provides for a cyclical environment that is translating into a little bit more weakness of the dollar. Distinguishes this as cyclical weakness, not debasement, and forecasts EUR/USD at 1.22 over 12 months.

metals

Materials is one sector that we really like. We think that there is still a lot of upside... Metals are playing a very important role. Links positive view to upgraded global growth outlook and the commodities cycle.

dxy

It's the setup where that large breakdown of the dollar index along with yields and gold volatility, that's what could really ignite the rally. Linked to Fed easing and gold rally setup; suggests dollar weakness as catalyst for metals move.

metals

I see a scenario where we hit that [gold $6,000]. It's the continued central bank buying, the private investor ETF flows... that's what could really ignite the rally. Fed easing with rate cuts, breakdown in dollar index and yields, structural drivers of central bank buying and ETF flows.

yields

The steeper trade is still pretty crowded... it's going to continue in fits and starts. When it gets very crowded and there's some catalyst for people to get out of it, you're going to see this jerk back like you saw today.

dxy

Asia should benefit from structural weakness of US dollar as well.

ndx

as overall transformative technology we don't think AI is a bubble... to unlock AI's revolutionary productivity potential we still have a long way to go. The view is fundamentally bullish on the AI-driven transformation, which underpins the NDX, but cautions about froth in the 'Magnificent Seven' conduit, advocating for diversification within the theme.

yields

at a longer end of the curve, the fiscal concerns remains very pertinent. And we have a curve steepening trade as one of our focal point for as allocation this year.

metals

Metals and mining up 25%... All of the old economy is substantially under invested. Copper back at $13k indicates structural shortage. Hyperscaler investment in data centers requires copper for grid, driving demand. Part of broader 'revenge of the old economy' rotation.

wti

Lots of upside here. Argues no real glut, markets structurally short and underinvested, geopolitical risk and hoarding behavior, policy-driven demand will keep markets tight.

yields

if there's any hint of large selling of treasuries, it could push yields sharply higher Chinese banks reducing Treasury exposure could trigger selling pressure; higher yields would result from reduced demand for US debt.

yields

March cut has been our best case for a while now, but certainly last week's meeting was very much supportive of that. De Courcel explicitly states BNP's expectation for a BoE rate cut in March, which would put downward pressure on short-term UK yields.

dxy

should not get carried away by short term variations of the exchange rate of the dollar... I don't see a change in the role of the dollar in any time soon. Acknowledges dollar goes up and down, but its structural dominance is unchallenged. This implies no strong directional view, but stability in its role, translating to a rangebound/stable medium-term outlook for the index itself.

metals

All these markets are structurally short. ...we're back above $13,000 a ton again, which is an indication that this market is structurally short. ...Metals and mining is up 25%. Part of the broader 'old economy' supercycle thesis. Copper cited as example of structural shortage. Demand from AI infrastructure (grids, transformers) will create massive pull.

ndx

Nasdaq is down 9%. ...it's a rotation out of the new economy tech or asset light into the old economy... We gotta be rotating capital out of the new economy into the old economy. Explicitly states Nasdaq is down as part of a capital rotation. Framed as a structural shift from asset-light tech to asset-heavy commodities, implying continued relative or absolute weakness.

wti

I think there's a lot of upside here. ...these markets...are substantially underinvested. ...policy driven demand that will likely continue to keep these markets tight. Dismisses glut narrative, points to inventory draws, unwind of large short, structural underinvestment, and geopolitical/hoarding demand as drivers for higher prices.

metals

There's a chance silver is going to go up so much more than anybody thinks. I just think it's up and I think people actually going to be surprised by how much it goes up. Draws parallel to nickel short squeeze in 2022 where price tripled after a forced decline. Sees recent drop as flushing out weak hands (macro tourists). Structural demand from China (solar) is price insensitive. Speculative flows from Bitcoin adding liquidity.

ndx

I think the tech stocks could be an absolute disaster. It's not just underweight. I think they could crash. Compares current US tech dominance to Japan in late 80s before its crash. Believes money is rotating out of tech (Mag 7) into other S&P stocks and international markets due to reflationary policies elsewhere. Notes Nasdaq flat YTD while other indices/assets are up significantly.

yields

we have not seen the long end of the curve move significantly. We haven't seen bond volatility increase materially either. So for now, people seem pretty comfortable.

dxy

look at the downward move in the u.s. dollar... down two-thirds of a percent to start the day Attributed to Japanese election causing yen rally. Notes lower dollar is 'not the worse scenario' for US stocks as it helps multinationals.

metals

We actually downgraded gold last Thursday morning near the highs. And we think there's going to be some time element with gold after being about 40% above its trading average.

yields

While not directly forecasting yields, the guest's core thesis involves reduced official demand for US Treasuries (from China/central banks) as they diversify. Reduced demand from major buyers, all else equal, is a pressure for higher yields. This is inferred from the setup and the guest's confirmation of the trend.

dxy

the dollar got hit across the board... a modest move away from the dollar... some modest pullback of the dollar seems reasonable Chandler explicitly describes dollar weakness in reaction to the China news and frames a 'modest pullback' as both cyclical (overvaluation) and structural (de-dollarization trend).

yields

the bond market didn't take much notice Chandler explicitly states the Treasury market reaction to the China news was minimal, implying stable/sideways yields in the immediate term.

metals

areas such as diversified metals... did move back up Cites 'diversified metals' as a specific area that moved back above its 50 and 200-day moving averages last week, indicating recent positive price action and technical improvement.

dxy

Weak dollar story is already on its last legs... Euro-dollar would peak in Q1, possibly extend to Q2, and then we see a decline in the Euro-dollar. That would actually mean that overall dollar would start to go higher by the second half of the year.

metals

Gold's going to have a great year and silver follows gold historically. Cites major bank targets ($5,400-$6,000 for gold), believes the sector is in a bull market, and recommends buying dips. Short-term view is cautious/choppy for February, but positive for March and the quarter.

metals

I really worried that... We are at the very beginning. of this debasement phenomenon... I think things have to get worse before they get better meaning gold goes higher. Brooks connects gold's rally directly to fiscal debasement fears and sees the trend continuing due to political inability to address deficits, with potential for stimulus and inflation to drive prices higher.

yields

We've been thinking 375 to 4 and a quarter sort of that ten year range. We went above it... We think that's an opportunity. Sees the rise above 4.25% as a buying opportunity, implying a view that yields will move back down into the stated range. The call for 'revenge of diversification' into duration is a bullish (yields down) view on bonds.

metals

things have to get worse before they get better, meaning gold goes higher Brooks explicitly forecasts gold going higher due to fiscal crisis fears, debasement trade, and lack of political will for fiscal discipline. Calls this the 'beginning of debasement phenomenon' that could play out over decades.

dxy

If the Fed is cutting rates into the strong nominal GDP environment, the odds are the dollar gets weaker, not stronger. Expects Fed rate cuts into strong economy to weaken dollar, though acknowledges dollar appreciation would be a prevailing force against non-US investments.

dxy

Dollar will tend to be a little bit more sticky... the starting now is going to be a little bit more stable in terms of dollar.

metals

this move in gold started after Jackson Hole on August 22nd last year... this gold rally is one particular manifestation Gold rally driven by debt sustainability fears and fiscal crisis, with markets seeking safe havens due to loss of patience with unsustainable fiscal policy.

yields

that is why you're seeing long-term yield all over the world rise Yields rising globally due to debt sustainability fears and fiscal crisis, with markets anticipating inflationary monetary policy to address unsustainable debt levels.

metals

Precious metals is very crowded trade year to date. Some rally supported by fundamentals... but some is purely hype chasing. We would like to stay with companies with visible earnings instead of chasing those hypes.

ndx

We think the market may be go too fast, too far. Sustainability of the US AI rally would be the key risk to watch for this year.

wti

A U.S. strike on Iran is likely... but a spike in oil prices is a risk, but it's not going to happen. Base case is heightened volatility due to high strike probability, but a sustained spike is conditional on Iranian response targeting oil infrastructure. Current premium is only $3.

dxy

In the last few weeks, since the summer, it has fluctuated within a range. Whether you look at the euro-U.S. dollar or nominal effective exchange rate the story is the same. Lagarde describes recent EUR/USD movement as rangebound, implying the dollar index (DXY) is also in a range.

yields

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path. Policy is on hold with a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. No indication of imminent cuts or hikes, suggesting stable rates in the near term.

metals

We've been bullish on gold for the last 18 months or so... We think that demand is going to remain strong... We prefer gold as the core diversifier and see upside there. Gold seen as diversification against dollar exposure, geopolitical concerns, and inflation; structural demand from central banks and institutions supports continued upside.

ndx

We think we're probably in for a period of consolidation as tech companies continue to grow into these earnings. Tech is worst performing sector, market broadening suggests rotation away from pure tech concentration, but still likes tech story long-term.

metals

Happy days are here again... Everybody's buying, buying, buying. Not just stocks but Bitcoin gold. Cited gold as part of a broad-based asset rally driven by positive sentiment and economic stimulus. No qualification or caution was expressed regarding metals, implying a straightforward positive view.