BlackRock's Naveen Segal expects the Fed to hike rates under new Chair Kevin Warsh, citing a strong US economy with high CapEx and AI tailwinds. The market is pricing in rate hikes by December, with 2-year Treasury yields rising to 4.14%.

Markets are rational - more chaotic world creates more spending on resilience (military, energy, tech). Bond yields rising because growth expected to be okay. Central banks shouldn't hike but may make gestures. Resolution likely as incentives on both sides get acute. China cannot risk global recession. European trade and cyclical parts of market depressed but would react to resolution. UK political risk premium already priced in.

Phil Streible discusses how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a softening dollar are providing support for gold and silver. He notes that markets have pushed back expectations for a Fed rate hike to March 2027, which is adding momentum to gold. Key economic data releases this week (consumer confidence, core PCE) will be pivotal for market direction. He provides technical levels for gold, silver, copper, and the S&P 500.

Katrina Dudley highlights that persistent high energy prices are feeding into inflation expectations and causing consumer fragility, evidenced by sticker shock at the pump and grocery store. She sees competing forces (deglobalization vs. AI job losses) making the market non-directional. She advises a balanced portfolio approach, noting that strong earnings growth (over 30% in 2026) supports equities, making valuation a poor reason to sell.

Kevin Hincks from Cboe discusses the market's positive sentiment driven by progress in Iran peace talks and lower crude oil prices. He highlights the upcoming economic data (GDP, PCE) and the start of Kevin Warsh's tenure as Fed Chair, suggesting a potential shift in Fed tone. He notes the market has rallied for eight weeks but risks remain until a deal is finalized.

The market is reacting positively to potential diplomatic progress between the US and Iran, despite ongoing military tensions and a fragile ceasefire. Pony AI shows strong revenue growth but remains unprofitable. Ferrari's first EV launch is polarizing, causing a negative stock reaction. AutoZone's earnings beat but revenue miss and margin pressure weigh on the stock. Eli Lilly's $3.8B acquisition spree in infectious disease prevention is viewed positively by the market.

OCBC is positive on equities, seeing the correction as an accumulation opportunity. They like China and Hong Kong for technology innovation and domestic demand, and see potential in Singapore due to government reforms. They are positive on gold with a $5,500 target over 12 months, and expect the dollar to weaken as Middle East tensions ease.

Secretary Rubio announces the Quad Critical Minerals Framework and the Quad Initiative on Indo-Pacific Energy Security, aiming to strengthen supply chains and regional energy resilience through coordinated investment and policy cooperation.

Market expectations were stretched; if good news continues, bond yields will rebound. Opportunity to buy into high yields with low volatility in the 3-5 year part of the curve. Fed likely to hold or cut, not hike. Asian bonds offer good entry points due to excessive hike pricing.

Van Ram argues markets are too complacent, particularly in Treasuries, as oil prices near $100/bbl. He expects front-end yields to push higher as the reality of persistent inflation from elevated oil prices and the Fed's natural inclination toward higher rates dawns on markets. He sees the recent yield decline as a buying opportunity in duration, but not at the front end.

Ed Yardeni is strongly bullish on U.S. equities, driven by fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO), not FOMO. He sees the economy as resilient, powered by AI, innovation, and capital markets. He dismisses debt fears and geopolitical risks as buying opportunities, expects oil prices to fall, and reiterates his S&P 500 target of 8,250 by year-end and 10,000 by decade-end.

Oil prices are driven by geopolitical rhetoric around US-Iran talks, not physical flows. The big fear is a breakdown of the current ceasefire leading back to March-style strikes. Physical vs paper oil gap has closed, but pressure points remain on refined fuels (jet fuel, diesel, LPG) with demand destruction occurring in South/Southeast Asia.

The US strikes on Iranian assets are surprising given ongoing negotiations, but markets are looking through the geopolitical turbulence, focusing on hopes for a breakthrough in talks, which is keeping futures positive.

Fed minutes reveal a divided committee, with Kevin Warsh potentially facing dissent. Warsh, open to alternative data, will focus on labor mandate failures (record low teen hiring, high continuing claims masking weakness) and consumer pullback (Walmart, Home Depot, rising delinquencies). Despite headline strength, demand is weak (Philly Fed, EU manufacturing), squeezing margins. Warsh's allies include Powell, Waller, and Jefferson. Expect focus on private credit risks and real-world economic pain over headlines.

Tracy Chen argues the global bond selloff is structurally driven by term premium repricing and fiscal indiscipline, not just the Iran war. She sees 10-year yields reaching 4.75-5% and 30-year yields 5.5-6%. She favors EM bonds like Philippines and Hungary, and views Chinese bonds and the yuan as true havens.

Timothy Ash views the Turkish political situation as Erdogan managing domestic politics. He sees the central bank and government managing markets with reserves, and does not expect a meltdown. An early election scenario is possible. Energy is a risk, but a Gulf deal would help.

Alison Shimato discusses EM opportunities, favoring AI supply chain in South Korea, Taiwan, and China. She expects the dollar to slowly decline due to US credibility issues. She likes Brazil and Poland selectively, and notes ASEAN is at risk from high oil prices. China is undervalued with potential to come back strongly.

The restart of the KK6 nuclear reactor in Japan is a significant milestone for the country's energy policy, marking the first restart in the Tokyo region and by TEPCO, the operator of the Fukushima plant. It is expected to displace ~61,000 metric tons of LNG demand per month, providing some relief to high Tokyo power prices driven by gas dependency and Middle East tensions. However, its impact is limited to ~3% of Tokyo demand. Japan's nuclear restart process is slow due to stringent safety regulations, but the current administration is pro-nuclear, with 9 more restarts expected by 2035, mostly in East Japan, which should narrow the East-West power price premium.

The macro environment is shifting towards a demand shock for copper and natural gas due to the AI economy's infrastructure needs, geopolitical risks, and energy security concerns. Traders are advised to act quickly to capitalize on these emerging opportunities before they become widely recognized.

Diliana Jane discusses inflation pass-through from energy prices across Asia. She expects RBA to hike in August/September after June pause, BOJ to hike to 1% in June, and notes lingering inflationary risks even if a US-Iran deal is reached. She highlights a growing divide between North East Asia and South/Southeast Asia.

Monica Defend sees a new regime of low trust where geopolitics is structural. Europe is vulnerable due to energy dependency, but opportunities exist in AI, automation, and pharma. She is constructive on European banks. She has a medium to long-term view that the USD will weaken.

Ven Ram argues US equity markets are overripe for a correction, especially the S&P 500 where froth is considerable relative to fair value. He believes the Fed has no room to loosen policy and may need to raise rates as inflation dynamics worsen, which markets are glossing over. He expects higher front-end rates and a flatter curve in coming weeks.

Ven Ram, cross-asset strategist, sees measured optimism in markets. He warns of froth in the S&P 500 (fair value 5700 vs current levels) and expects a short-term rally in long-duration bonds if a deal is reached. He believes the Fed will need to hike rates, not cut, due to sticky inflation, and sees opportunities in 30-year Treasuries.

The Iran war and Hormuz closure is reducing Gulf oil/gas export volumes while increasing domestic spending on defense, repair, and economic support. This means the pool of Gulf money for external investments is shrinking. Gulf countries will need to rethink defense, US relationship, regional cooperation, and global economic ties. Saudi Arabia is earning more due to higher oil prices but spending 1.5% of GDP per month on fighting.

Economy strong on surface but fragile; layered supply shocks risk persistent inflation. Fed should consider tightening or signaling tightening if inflation persists. Powell likely to prioritize institutional credibility and may lean hawkish if inflation moves further from target while employment remains stable.