Markets near record highs driven by AI beneficiaries like Nvidia and Microsoft, though breadth remains narrow. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel caused oil spike but are seen as cooling. Nvidia announces AI cloud partnerships in Korea. Cerebrus gets positive analyst coverage. Eli Lilly reports positive weight loss drug trial results.

The ECB is expected to hike 25bp this week for credibility, while the UK has more flexibility to wait. The Fed will stay on hold with no cuts this year; cuts possible next year but pushed later. US credit is attractive due to fortress balance sheets and 2% trend growth, with no refinancing cliff for 5+ years. Fiscal policy concerns affect long-end yields.

Timothy Moe views the 8% circuit breaker in Korea as a technical correction in a long-term bull market. He emphasizes strong underlying fundamentals (220% profit growth this year) and cheap valuations (sub-7x earnings). He sees the AI story as just beginning and profitable, and expects the market to regain its footing after the shakeout.

Kevin Warsh argues inflation is driven by loose Fed policy and government spending, not strong job growth or wage increases. He challenges the traditional view that a hot economy is inherently inflationary, suggesting productivity gains could allow for higher neutral rates without harming markets. The strong jobs report raises the probability of rate hikes, but Warsh's framework implies a different policy response.

The Fed is expected to remain on an extended pause through year-end, but a strong labor market and sticky inflation increase the risk of a rate hike. Schwab recommends below-benchmark duration, favoring short/intermediate maturities, and is positive on investment-grade and high-yield corporates given economic resilience.

Sikander Rashid of Brookfield Asset Management discusses the strong underlying demand for AI infrastructure despite recent market volatility. He emphasizes that Brookfield is building the 'body' of AI (land, power, data centers) for top tech firms and sovereigns, not speculating. He sees the recent tech sell-off as a healthy correction and remains bullish on long-term AI infrastructure investment, particularly in Europe and the UK, citing France's nuclear power as a key advantage.

Charles Moon recommends a short-dated vertical spread on Nvidia targeting the $210 strike for June 18th, risking 50% with potential 100% return if the market sustains a rally. He cites strong demand from Nvidia's partnerships and Jensen Huang's comments about memory shortages as bullish for near and long term.

Markets are stabilizing after Friday's momentum unwind triggered by a blowout jobs report. The guest focuses on precious metals: gold and silver are under pressure from weak ETF flows and quieter central bank buying, but dip buyers are emerging in silver and copper. Key technical levels are identified for silver (support $61-$66, resistance $70-$73) and gold (needs to reclaim $4400 to break falling wedge). Copper is seen as the first metal to attract dip buyers.

ECB will likely hike 1-2 times as insurance, not a long series. Growth risks in Europe are key - services PMIs softening. Fed bias is to hold despite strong jobs data - wage pressure didn't accelerate and many jobs came in temporary leisure/hospitality. Euro likely to weaken until peace deal in Middle East.

Markets rebound sharply after Friday's tech-led selloff, driven by reduced Iran-Israel tensions and bargain buying in semiconductors. Focus on Wednesday's CPI data and Fed Chair Warsh's first press conference on the 17th, with speculation about rate hikes despite the host's skepticism.

Ben Emons views the Anthropic IPO as a euphoria moment for AI, not a peak, driven by strong earnings growth that justifies valuations. He sees rotation from mega-cap tech into AI names, but warns of froth if parabolic moves become too widespread. He believes the AI sector has strong fundamentals but faces competition from new entrants.

Former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin discusses the need for a ceasefire in the Middle East to stabilize global economy and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He is optimistic about European defense spending increases and NATO's future. He believes China's Xi prefers coercion over force for Taiwan, reducing near-term invasion risk. He avoids commenting on specific political moves but emphasizes meritocracy in the military.

A Fed rate hike is not inevitable but more than 100% priced in. The choice is between hold or multiple hikes - if they hike, they'll be behind the curve. CPI print on Wednesday is critical - consensus 4.2% headline inflation above 4% is too problematic. Fed hoping for Iran peace deal to collapse oil prices for disinflationary wave.

Jeff Rosenberg from BlackRock argues that markets are pricing in rate hikes ahead of the Fed, and the Fed will likely have to play catch-up following the strong May jobs report.

Mark Cudmore expects further short-term market pain after last week's correction, citing technical factors and geopolitical risks. He sees a disconnect between optimistic market pricing and bleak reality. On the Fed, he believes they will hold as long as possible, but if they hike, it will be multiple hikes behind the curve, causing damage to financial assets.

The SpaceX IPO is massive and well-anticipated, with demand exceeding supply. While AI-related IPOs are thriving, smaller companies face a tough market. Recent Nasdaq pullbacks have not persisted, giving bankers confidence.

Ed Ludlow discusses Apple's need for a standalone Siri app to compete with ChatGPT, Intel's potential as a backup chipmaker for Google/Nvidia, and SpaceX's strategic IPO pricing at $135/share with a new hyperscaler compute story.

Crit Thomas warns that the AI spending trade is so dominant that buying an index provides only one return driver, forcing investors to put all eggs in one basket. He notes that traditional diversification has hurt performance because many winners share the same AI driver. He expects a rotation from AI capacity plays to AI users within 1-2 years, but evidence of payoff is limited. He advises understanding portfolio exposure to this narrow segment.

The market's extreme moves (big up days, big down days) are a natural feature of a surreal rally where entire markets move like penny stocks. Inflationary pressures were ignored by the market until the payrolls report confirmed labor market strength, which is good news (avoiding stagflation). The upcoming SpaceX IPO is historic, bringing a massive name public without prior retail run-up, and could fuel further momentum. The rally is global, with the same names being chased everywhere.

Oil jumped 4.5% on Middle East escalation but reaction is more muted than expected given Strait of Hormuz closure. Mitigating factors: Trump administration talking down oil prices, China reducing purchases using stockpiles, OECD countries releasing strategic reserves, some oil still trickling through Gulf. OPEC+ signaled they will allow maximum production once Hormuz opens.

John Authors argues the current market correction is driven by two main factors: a shift in Fed expectations towards a potential hike (though he questions its necessity) and the upcoming SpaceX IPO. He sees the selloff as a correction, not a bear market, with room to fall. He also notes the US exceptionalism trade may persist due to strong employment data.

Israel struck military targets in Iran after Iranian missile attacks, testing the fragile ceasefire. President Trump urged Netanyahu not to retaliate but Israel attacked anyway. The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu is reportedly strained. The return to hostilities puts peace talks into question.

Abeer Abu Omar discusses the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, renewed hostilities including Israeli strikes on Iran's Mahshahr petrochemical complex, and the strained relationship between Trump and Netanyahu. Oil markets are reacting sharply to the escalation, with talks stalled and the 100-day mark of the conflict passed.

Anthony Stevens describes the day as a 'risk management day' driven by positioning unwinds, not fundamentals. He highlights the extreme exposure of Korean retail investors, the weakness in Asian FX, and the importance of the SpaceX IPO as a gauge for retail liquidity. He notes China's relative insulation.

Rick Rieder of BlackRock analyzes the strong but uneven U.S. economy, driven by AI-related construction and investment, while other sectors soften. He advocates for the Fed to hold rates, not hike, given the supply-shock nature of inflation and the limited impact of rate hikes on AI spending. He sees solid market technicals, prefers European fixed income, and uses volatility to hedge equity downside.

Airline executives report surprisingly strong demand despite higher fuel costs, with 40-50% of fuel cost increases passed to consumers. The OPEC+ meeting focuses on delivery logistics rather than supply capacity, with Brent at ~$90/barrel paper price but physical barrels potentially $150-160. UAE's departure from OPEC+ adds psychological pressure.

Airline executives report surprisingly strong demand despite higher fuel costs, with 40-50% of cost increases passed to consumers. The OPEC+ meeting focuses on delivery logistics rather than supply capacity, with Brent at $90/barrel but physical prices potentially $150-160. UAE's departure from OPEC+ adds psychological pressure. Consumer resilience suggests sticky inflation.

Jeffrey Rosenberg argues the Fed is set for a hawkish turn due to accelerating data, a stronger labor market, and supply shocks from oil. He believes the market is pricing in a full hike for the year, which feels right, but the Fed will move slowly and is unlikely to aggressively tighten unless inflation reaccelerates. The strong labor report may have one-offs, but the trend is gradual strengthening.

The guest sees the market as very healthy with strong earnings and too many dollars chasing too few assets. He expects EPS growth to peak in 2027, not 2025. He advises staying with momentum and avoiding contrarian or bottom-fishing trades, finding good risk-reward in utilities, staples, tech, and industrials. The recent pullback is a healthy reset.

Dale Smothers maintains a bullish 8000 target for the market by year-end, driven by strong earnings, AI demand, and oil below $100. He expects volatility this summer and into midterms, and is trimming leadership names (Amazon, Apple, Oracle, Marvell) to rotate into broader equities, allowing clients to profit even if volatility doesn't materialize.