Barry expects the Fed to lose its easing bias at the upcoming meeting, with a rate hike possible early next year. The front end of the curve has repriced sharply, but the long end has not fully repriced to reflect the more hawkish direction. He sees the intermediate sector of the US curve as 20-25 bps too low. Money market fund AUM is likely to remain sticky, as it typically takes the Fed cutting below 2% to see money flow out. He also notes that high-grade corporate debt is becoming a substitute for Treasuries as pension funds are well-funded.
explicit
inferred
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
JPMorgan
9.0
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Jay Barry 9.0
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Jay Barry 9.0
6/17/2026 1:33:47 AM
ndx
Barry's focus is on rates and the Fed; he does not provide a direct equity view, but a hawkish Fed and higher yields typically pressure growth/tech stocks, suggesting a sideways to cautious tone.
yields
We ultimately think the Fed will have to hike... the intermediate sector of the US curve is probably trading 20 or 25 basis points too low in yield.
| 5/26/2026 2:08:46 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.13% | -0.13% |
| 5/21/2026 9:57:13 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -3.13% |
| 5/21/2026 9:55:02 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -3.13% |
| 5/21/2026 7:18:44 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -1.04% |
| 5/21/2026 11:46:46 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -3.13% |
| 5/21/2026 10:34:29 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -2.08% |
| 5/21/2026 9:18:32 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -3.13% |
| 5/21/2026 9:17:57 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -1.69% |
| 5/13/2026 10:40:42 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.67% | +0.67% |
| 5/12/2026 2:35:01 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.17% | +3.17% |
| 5/11/2026 3:12:21 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.27% | +0.27% |
| 5/6/2026 7:59:28 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.03% | +2.03% |
| 5/5/2026 9:11:37 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.24% | +0.62% |
| 4/30/2026 2:45:27 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.50% |
| 4/30/2026 2:09:30 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.25% |
| 4/30/2026 1:27:38 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.25% |
| 4/29/2026 12:00:22 AM | medium term sharp down | 20 days later | +4.15% | -6.22% |
| 3/31/2026 2:37:12 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -0.63% | -0.31% |
| 3/13/2026 9:15:48 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.70% | +2.70% |
| 3/11/2026 11:21:40 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.66% | -1.66% |
| 3/5/2026 1:17:37 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.81% | +0.91% |
| 2/6/2026 5:06:02 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -3.57% | +1.79% |
| 12/11/2025 1:18:26 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.03% | +1.03% |
| 12/10/2025 9:25:29 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.53% | -0.27% |
| 12/1/2025 2:17:57 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.03% | +2.03% |
| 11/21/2025 1:54:47 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +3.57% | +3.57% |
| 11/7/2025 6:12:18 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -0.34% | +0.17% |
| 11/4/2025 12:53:31 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -3.73% | -1.86% |
| 10/30/2025 1:40:41 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.12% | +0.06% |
| 10/29/2025 8:30:24 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/21/2025 2:15:04 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.11% | -0.56% |
| 10/16/2025 5:42:00 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.15% | +1.07% |
| 10/1/2025 3:11:20 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.30% | +1.65% |
| 9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.48% | +1.74% |
| 9/22/2025 5:25:48 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -1.67% | -1.67% |
| 9/17/2025 6:49:25 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.61% | -0.30% |
| 9/11/2025 11:57:02 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.66% | +0.33% |
| 9/11/2025 4:51:16 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.37% |
| 9/10/2025 9:53:06 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 9/10/2025 6:33:02 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 8/28/2025 1:07:30 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.38% | +0.19% |
| 8/15/2025 9:10:00 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -1.52% | +0.76% |
| 8/12/2025 4:29:28 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.92% | +0.46% |
| 8/8/2025 2:04:22 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +1.59% | -0.80% |
| 8/4/2025 11:59:32 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.84% | -1.84% |
