Torsten Slok argues that AI-driven data center buildout, industrial onshoring, and the 'one big beautiful bill' tax cuts create powerful, Fed-independent tailwinds for US growth. This growth is inflationary, keeping rates higher for longer. Crucially, AI exposure now dominates both equity and bond markets, undermining traditional 60/40 diversification and creating a single-factor risk.

The deal is in line with expectations. It will take several months for oil supply to normalize. It does not change the economic outlook but shifts the risk balance, reducing downside risk. The Fed is expected to turn neutral and stay on hold through this year and next. Core inflation remains sticky, and financial conditions are accommodative. China's domestic demand is weak, while Japan's underlying inflation is building, supporting BOJ hikes.

The Iran interim MOU is facing conflicting timelines: Trump says it will be signed today, but Tehran signals delay. Key sticking points include the fate of highly enriched uranium (dilution vs. destruction), unfreezing $25 billion in assets, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. The leaked provisions suggest concessions may favor Iran, raising questions about whether this deal is better than the JCPOA. Qatar and Pakistan are key mediators.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a divided committee (hawks vs. those worried about stagflation) and political pressure from Trump to cut rates. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady, with the possibility of a hike later if inflation persists. Warsh's first press conference is critical for signaling his leadership style and the committee's direction. A potential end to the Iran war could reduce oil prices and lessen the chance of a rate hike.

The MOU reduces oil-driven inflation, allowing the Fed to hold rates and risk assets to rally. The dollar will soften as other central banks hike. AI trade remains strong but concentrated; Korea and Japan benefit from diversification.

The G7 summit is dominated by the Iran deal. European leaders' strategy of appeasing Trump has failed, and the US pulling fighter jets from Europe shows fragmentation. The summit's outcome is unpredictable due to Trump's style.

The G7 summit is dominated by the Iran war and the potential deal. European leaders, facing domestic political weakness, have abandoned the 'appeasement' strategy with Trump after it failed to guarantee results (e.g., US pulling fighter jets from Europe). The summit's agenda is fluid, dictated by whether a deal is reached. President Trump's unpredictability and focus on Iran will overshadow traditional G7 business.

Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist, analyzes Kevin Warsh's upcoming Fed chair debut. He sees Warsh in a 'no-win' situation due to a divided FOMC (hawks vs. stagflation-wary doves) and political pressure from Trump. Jersey expects Warsh, a neutral thinker who favors less Fed communication, to advocate for a 'sit on hands' approach until clarity emerges on inflation and jobs. A potential end to the Iran war could lower oil prices, reducing rate hike risk.

Dan Williams explains Israel is deeply unhappy with the emerging Iran deal, viewing it as leaving Iran with residual nuclear and missile capacity and empowering it. He notes Netanyahu faces a political liability ahead of elections, as the deal falls short of his 'total victory' promise. Lebanon remains a major sticking point, with Israel unwilling to withdraw from its buffer zone, while Iran insists on a ceasefire on all fronts including Hezbollah.

Oliver Sloup analyzes December corn futures, identifying $4.40 as a critical support level that held after new contract lows were made. He believes the market is 'priced to perfection,' leaving underpriced upside risk. A recovery rally requires consecutive closes above $4.45, with $4.70 as a key decision point (50% retracement). Growing season uncertainty could provide catalysts.

Jim Thorne argues Canada faces a multi-year structural decline due to neglected competitive advantages, excessive real estate reliance, and incompetent policy, while the US economy will run hot on supply-side reforms, deregulation, and productivity gains. He recommends buying memory stocks (Micron) and Bitcoin on pullbacks, sees oil falling to $60, and expects a US-Iran deal that will lower yields.

Goldman Sachs President John Waldron discusses the record M&A market, the historic SpaceX IPO, and the strong US economy. He sees healthy equity valuations supported by strong earnings growth, and expects a wave of IPOs. He also addresses AI token costs, the labor market impact, and Europe's need for more risk capital.

Jim Chanos is deeply skeptical of SpaceX's $2T+ valuation at ~110x revenues, calling the IPO 'hopes and dreams.' He highlights a last-minute pivot from AI software (XAI/Grok) to a lower-margin Neocloud leasing model, which he says is a finance business, not high-tech. He compares the AI capex boom to the 1999-2000 TMT bubble, warning of a massive equity supply wave in 2026 and an earnings mirage from capex capitalization. He advises being long the market and short overvalued names, noting insurance is cheap.

Jack Lew discusses the urgent need to address Social Security's impending funding shortfall (2032-2034), emphasizing that a 22% benefit cut is unacceptable. He argues for bipartisan action combining revenue increases (e.g., raising the earnings cap) and modest benefit adjustments with long lead times, warning that inaction threatens overall fiscal health and trust in government.

Julie Biel discusses the massive scale of capital being absorbed by mega-IPOs and equity raises. She expresses concern that passive investing at its peak means blind buying without regard to valuation, adding market cap without earnings. She notes the unusual move by Google to do an equity raise (most expensive capital) when they're one of the best credits, suggesting it may be a competitive move to starve capital from upcoming IPOs. She also notes small-cap outperformance may be driven by lower-quality names.

Jim Chanos argues the SpaceX IPO and the broader 2026 surge in mega-IPOs represent supply meeting speculative demand, producing extreme valuations (~110x revenues) unsupported by current cash flows. He highlights that XAI's pivot to leasing capacity (neo-cloud) is a lower-margin, finance-like business, and that historically, equities priced so richly deliver poor returns. He prefers hedged exposure and shorting 'radioactive' companies.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright details how the US military is restoring oil flows from the Persian Gulf, diminishing Iran's leverage. He argues that Trump administration policies have kept energy prices lower than expected despite the conflict, and discusses the strategic goal of preventing a nuclear-armed Iran. He also touches on Venezuela, SPR refill, and the limitations of renewables for grid reliability.

Jim Bianco argues that interest rates should rise with a stronger economy and inflation, which is not inherently bad for equities. He expects a modest move higher in rates, but warns of a jump condition if the Fed appears dismissive of inflation or if crude oil prices spike sharply.

James Chanos warns that the upcoming SpaceX IPO and record IPOs in 2026 signal a potential market bubble, similar to the late 1990s. He highlights SpaceX's pivot to a lower-valued neocloud model, its 110x revenue valuation, and the broader AI capex boom as key risks. He advises caution and notes that insurance (shorts) is cheap.

Camille de Cousel sees the ECB's July meeting as live but expects a move in September unless energy prices spike. She views the ECB's path as potentially more than two hikes, but not a full tightening cycle. For the Fed, she expects a move to symmetric bias next week, with three hikes starting December, and sees upside risks to yields across the curve.

Public markets can absorb the wave of mega-IPOs and lock-up expiries (up to $700B), netting against buybacks ($1.5T) and M&A. The narrative is shifting from 'private forever' as AI companies need massive capital. Private markets will remain a representation of the real economy, while public markets will represent tech and AI disruption. Power is the bottleneck, with a focus on transmission and distribution, not just generation.

Konstantin Vite from PIMCO discusses the ECB's rate hike, expecting one or two more hikes but noting the backdrop is different from 2022. He sees the growth outlook as too optimistic and focuses on quality credit and periphery bonds. He finds fixed income attractive relative to equities.

The US is actively restoring oil flows from the Persian Gulf through military and diplomatic efforts, with current flows approaching half of the pre-conflict gap, indicating a positive outlook for oil supply.

Kevin Warsh argues that the Fed is likely behind the curve and will need to hike multiple times to regain control of inflation, which will keep US yields high. He contrasts this with Europe, where supply dynamics and weaker growth will also keep yields elevated, but for different reasons. He warns that failing to hike risks losing credibility in the Treasury market.

Max Kettner is maximally bullish on equities, seeing the recent dip as a buying opportunity. He argues that structurally higher nominal growth in the US means higher revenue growth, making equities perpetually attractive. He is long US and Asia, ignoring Europe due to its single-factor dependence on geopolitics. He sees survey-based sentiment as not stretched and positioning as not excessive.

Markets are climbing a wall of worry with geopolitics, IPOs, and rate hikes. Short-term strategy favors front-end investment grade credit for asymmetry. Gold is on pause but has double-digit upside long-term. AI remains a strong theme but revenue growth needs to materialize. ECB hike is likely a one-and-done, not start of a cycle.

Max Chafkin argues the SpaceX IPO is priced on faith in Musk's long-term vision (AI, Mars) rather than current fundamentals. He notes the AI story has overshadowed political risks, but the S-1 clearly states success depends on Musk's leadership. The IPO's success is tied to the White House's pro-AI policies.

Max Chafkin, Bloomberg Businessweek columnist, compares the SpaceX IPO to Tesla's 2010 IPO, noting that Elon Musk was more popular then without the current political polarization. He argues the AI story has swamped everything else, and the S-1 clearly states the entire plan depends on Musk. He also notes that US federal contracts are about 20% of SpaceX's revenue, and that Musk's political alignment may have been crucial for the IPO's success. He draws a parallel between SpaceX's legacy launch business (a near-monopoly) and its futuristic AI/data center ambitions, similar to Tesla's split between auto sales and robotaxi/humanoid robot dreams.

ECB President Lagarde discusses May inflation rising to 3.2%, driven by energy prices. She notes that while wage growth should ease, firms face higher input costs. Energy price increases will keep inflation above target into H1 2027, with a return to target in H2 2027. Risks are to the upside due to the Middle East conflict and potential second-round effects.

ECB raised rates by 25bp unanimously to combat broadening inflation from energy shock, with risks to the upside. Growth forecast revised down slightly. Lagarde emphasized data-dependence, no pre-set path, and that the decision is robust across all scenarios including a milder one. Second-round effects not yet visible but wage projections included.