Bob Michele (J.P. Morgan) expects the Fed to be forced into 1-2 maintenance hikes by September, sees the 10-year Treasury in a 4.125%-4.625% range, and is constructive on credit markets. He highlights resilient emerging markets, a decade-long AI capex cycle, and prudent hyperscaler debt issuance as supportive for global growth.
explicit
implicit
implicit
implicit
implicit
US 10-year Treasury cautious up
JPMorgan
9.2
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Bob Michele 9.5
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Bob Michele 9.5
US 10y; Fed funds
6/30/2026 7:32:30 PM
dxy
Fed likely only needs 1-2 maintenance hikes, not a sustained tightening cycle, which would not significantly strengthen the dollar further.
metals
Global capex plans for energy security, defense, and AI imply increased demand for industrial metals, supporting prices.
ndx
Constructive on AI capex cycle running for a decade, with hyperscalers having pristine balance sheets and debt being well-digested, supporting tech growth.
rut
Broadly constructive on credit markets and the economy, with businesses investing in capex, which supports small-cap and domestic-focused companies in the Russell 2000.
wti
Emerging markets, including China, have survived an oil shock by repurposing energy imports, suggesting oil price pressures are manageable and not a major concern.
yields
We expect a 10-year US Treasury to trade between 4 and 1/8 and 4 and 5/8.
| 6/18/2026 1:57:40 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.10% | -1.10% |
| 6/11/2026 3:45:06 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.53% | -0.53% |
| 5/29/2026 10:05:50 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +0.76% | -0.38% |
| 5/26/2026 2:08:46 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.13% | -0.13% |
| 5/22/2026 2:18:11 PM | medium term cautious up | 22 days later | -1.95% | -0.98% |
| 5/21/2026 9:57:13 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -3.13% |
| 5/21/2026 9:55:02 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -3.13% |
| 5/21/2026 7:18:44 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -1.04% |
| 5/21/2026 11:46:46 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -3.13% |
| 5/21/2026 10:34:29 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -2.08% |
| 5/21/2026 9:18:32 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -3.13% |
| 5/21/2026 9:17:57 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -1.69% |
| 5/18/2026 1:19:26 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.34% | -2.34% |
| 5/16/2026 12:08:42 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.41% | -1.41% |
| 5/16/2026 12:06:16 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.41% | -1.41% |
| 5/13/2026 10:40:42 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.67% | +0.67% |
| 5/12/2026 2:35:01 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.17% | +3.17% |
| 5/11/2026 3:12:21 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.27% | +0.27% |
| 5/6/2026 7:59:28 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.03% | +2.03% |
| 5/5/2026 9:11:37 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.24% | +0.62% |
| 4/30/2026 2:45:27 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.50% |
| 4/30/2026 2:09:30 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.25% |
| 4/30/2026 1:27:38 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.25% |
| 4/29/2026 12:00:22 AM | medium term sharp down | 20 days later | +4.15% | -6.22% |
| 3/31/2026 2:37:12 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -0.63% | -0.31% |
| 3/13/2026 9:15:48 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.70% | +2.70% |
| 3/11/2026 11:21:40 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.66% | -1.66% |
| 3/5/2026 1:17:37 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.81% | +0.91% |
| 3/2/2026 6:25:12 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.90% | +1.90% |
| 2/14/2026 1:07:19 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.90% | -0.95% |
| 2/6/2026 5:06:02 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -3.57% | +1.79% |
| 1/23/2026 5:36:13 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -3.73% | -3.73% |
| 1/16/2026 1:47:58 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.78% | -0.78% |
| 1/16/2026 12:23:05 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.78% | -0.78% |
| 12/11/2025 1:18:26 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.03% | +1.03% |
| 12/10/2025 9:25:29 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.53% | -0.27% |
| 12/1/2025 2:17:57 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.03% | +2.03% |
| 11/21/2025 1:54:47 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +3.57% | +3.57% |
| 11/7/2025 6:12:18 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -0.34% | +0.17% |
| 11/4/2025 12:53:31 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -3.73% | -1.86% |
| 10/30/2025 1:40:41 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.12% | +0.06% |
| 10/29/2025 8:30:24 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/21/2025 2:15:04 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.11% | -0.56% |
| 10/18/2025 12:19:19 AM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -0.25% | +0.37% |
| 10/17/2025 9:07:08 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.25% | +0.12% |
| 10/16/2025 5:42:00 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.15% | +1.07% |
| 10/1/2025 3:11:20 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.30% | +1.65% |
| 9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.48% | +1.74% |
| 9/22/2025 5:25:48 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -1.67% | -1.67% |
| 9/17/2025 6:49:25 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.61% | -0.30% |
| 9/11/2025 11:57:02 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.66% | +0.33% |
| 9/11/2025 4:51:16 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.37% |
| 9/10/2025 9:53:06 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 9/10/2025 6:33:02 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 8/28/2025 1:07:30 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.38% | +0.19% |
| 8/15/2025 9:10:00 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -1.52% | +0.76% |
| 8/12/2025 4:29:28 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.92% | +0.46% |
| 8/8/2025 2:04:22 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +1.59% | -0.80% |
| 8/4/2025 11:59:32 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.84% | -1.84% |
