Torsten Slok of Apollo argues that if the Fed chair reduces forward guidance (removes dot-plot/SEP or speaks less), markets lose an anchor and the residual easing bias disappears — effectively a more hawkish posture. Additionally, emphasizing a smaller balance sheet (QT) acts like tightening. With core inflation ~3% and very strong high-frequency consumption and labor indicators (travel, retail, hotels) there are few signs of slowing, so policy should lean tighter despite lower energy prices. Thus communication changes plus balance-sheet focus point toward upward pressure on yields and a more constrained equity environment.

David Rosenberg argues that the recent rise in bond yields is driven by real rates, not inflation expectations, which remain anchored. He believes the energy shock has not seeped into wages, and that core inflation is already below target when adjusted for energy-adjacent items. He sees the US consumer in a recession on the income side (real disposable income negative 1% YoY), propped up only by a falling savings rate and credit. He expects the Fed's next move to be a cut, not a hike, and that bond yields have peaked. He criticizes the ECB's rate hike as a policy mistake and views the Canadian economy as flat with a household debt crisis.

Mark Cabana discusses the uncertainty around new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is a relative stranger to the bond market. He expects potential volatility but no immediate rate change. The committee leans hawkish, likely penciling in hikes. A resilient consumer and stable labor market suggest rates may not be restrictive, though lower oil prices ease inflation concerns. Mortgage rates seen rangebound at 6.25-6.75%.

Hugh Kimber from JPMorgan AM expects the Fed to stay on hold through the year, with Warsh likely to say very little and avoid forward guidance. He sees value in European stocks, particularly consumer cyclicals and banks, as the energy shock fades. He believes the broadening out of markets strengthens the case for regional diversification away from US tech.

Betsy Duke expects a complete rewrite of the FOMC statement, not just a tweak. She believes Warsh will focus on communication, possibly eliminating the dot plot. She maintains Warsh is still a hawk who wants to be a great Fed chair, focused on controlling inflation. She notes Michelle Smith staying on as chief of staff is important for continuity.

Bloomberg reports Brent oil fell below $80 on U.S.-Iran deal reopening Strait of Hormuz, easing inflation pressures. U.S. housing starts hit six-year low due to apartment decline. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh wants to reduce Fed communication, hinting at less forward guidance. Markets up, Dow +0.5%.

Barry expects the Fed to lose its easing bias at the upcoming meeting, with a rate hike possible early next year. The front end of the curve has repriced sharply, but the long end has not fully repriced to reflect the more hawkish direction. He sees the intermediate sector of the US curve as 20-25 bps too low. Money market fund AUM is likely to remain sticky, as it typically takes the Fed cutting below 2% to see money flow out. He also notes that high-grade corporate debt is becoming a substitute for Treasuries as pension funds are well-funded.

Phil Streible discusses precious metals grinding higher ahead of the Fed decision under new Chair Warsh. He notes gold bounced 10% from $4,000 to $4,400 on easing oil prices and conflict resolution hopes. He expects the Fed to hold rates but Warsh to lean dovish, causing rate volatility. Key levels: gold 4,400 resistance, 4,165 support; silver $72 upside, $67.38 support. Copper remains strong on AI/data center demand. He prefers futures over ETFs for efficiency.

Greg Peters and Ira Jersey discuss the Fed's challenge with sticky inflation and a firming labor market, arguing there is no case for rate cuts. They analyze the new Fed chair's need for credibility, the crowding out effect from massive AI and sovereign debt issuance, and the relative value of sovereign vs. corporate bonds.

Guest expects Fed Chair Warsh to surprise with a less hawkish tone than priced, which would lower front-end yields and soften the dollar, temporarily supporting risk assets. However, long-end yields may stay sticky or drift higher. The Iran MOU signing on Friday is not fully priced; if signed, it adds supply pressure (bearish oil) and a small stock boost; failure is a risk asset disaster. Overall, momentum is slightly positive for stocks but risk/reward is terrible due to valuations and the Iran deal terms.

Iran-US deal reduces worst-case oil disruption risk, enabling risk-on sentiment and potential rotation beyond AI/tech into cyclicals like financials and industrials. Tech enthusiasm high but valuations stretched; investors rotating from AI model companies to semiconductors. Korea and Taiwan fundamentals still robust with single-digit P/E ratios.

Bloomberg News Now reports President Trump signed an MOU with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil to slump over 5% and equities to rally (S&P +2%, Nasdaq +3%, Russell +1.3%). The deal is fragile, faces Israeli opposition, and requires 60-day technical talks. Bloomberg's Oliver Crook notes European involvement in sanctions and potential de-mining missions. Markets reacted positively but cautiously.

Anthony Scaramucci argues perpetual futures should be regulated rather than debated, as the technology is already here. He sees Bitcoin's current weakness as consistent with its four-year halving cycle, but shallower due to institutional ETF buying. He predicts a Bitcoin rally starting late Q4 2026 into early 2027. He defends MicroStrategy's position, noting its fortress balance sheet and favorable NAV arbitrage. He highlights extreme apathy and low RSI as contrarian bullish signals.

Markets keep rising despite conflicting forces (AI inflation/deflation, wars). DWS focuses on cost control and organic growth. Private credit still attractive but retail liquidity promises problematic. Middle East remains key investor region.

BOJ will hike to 1% (98% priced in). Underlying inflation still at 2.8%. Focus is on Deputy Governor Uchida's communications about path forward. Hard to deliver hawkish surprise as markets already pricing in further hikes. JGB balance sheet will continue shrinking regardless of taper pause due to redemptions. Yen weakness driven by risk appetite and carry trade, not just BOJ policy.

Andrew Hollenhorst argues lower oil gives the Fed more flexibility and reverses the inflationary pressure. He expects Warsh to remove the easing bias but in a dovish way, citing uncertainty. He still sees three cuts this year, starting in September, contingent on softer labor market data. He notes AI investment is inflationary now but could be disinflationary later via productivity gains.

Rick Rieder (BlackRock) sees the Iran/Strait of Hormuz reopening as a major de-risking event that lowers headline inflation and reduces the need for central bank hikes. He highlights massive cash on sidelines ($9T in money markets) being unlocked by the SpaceX IPO and positive news, driving explosive equity moves. He expects the Fed under Kevin Warsh to use balance sheet tools rather than rate hikes to manage long rates and housing, and sees a K-shaped economy where the top 10% drives consumption while 75% struggles.

RBC CEO Dave McKay describes a strong risk-on environment driven by insatiable demand for AI compute and memory capital, with banks using full capital stacks. US economy is robust with tech-led growth; Canada faces technical recession but sees catalysts from defense spend, pipelines, and infrastructure. AI is initially inflationary but will become deflationary through productivity gains. RBC is hiring and expanding in US/Europe, taking equity stakes in Canadian tech and protein companies to fill scaling capital gaps.

Sonders sees a broadening out trade happening with fits and starts, not linearly. She believes there will be continued rotations providing leadership outside mega-cap tech, though a large-cap bias remains. On energy, she cautions that lower oil prices don't represent a significant tailwind for the economy or inflation, as AI-driven pressures are also at play. For the Fed under Warsh, she expects no definitive announcements but will watch for comments on balance sheet, press conference frequency, dot plot, and SEP.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has imposed a 'war tax' on energy and commodities, disproportionately hurting poorer Asian nations that lack strategic reserves. Wealthier countries like the US can temporarily cushion the blow via SPR releases and subsidies, but this is unsustainable. The conflict is driving structural shifts: stockpiling, onshoring, and capacity expansion are all inflationary. A delayed food crisis in Southeast Asia (due to skipped planting seasons and high diesel/fertilizer costs) could reduce demand for manufactured goods globally. AI-driven chip demand provides some buffer, but macro pressures (higher rates, strong USD) continue to stress emerging markets.

BOJ's 25bp hike to 1% was a watershed but not enough - USD/JPY still above 160. Deputy governor's hawkish lines showed confidence but market wants evidence BOJ isn't behind the curve. BOJ may hike again in December but no confidence in faster pace. For Warsh's first FOMC, key is whether he'll be politically motivated to adopt a dovish framework using alternative inflation measures. Two-year yield at 4.05% pricing in 15bp of hikes may not materialize if Warsh leans dovish.

Torsten Slok (Apollo) argues the US economy remains very strong across consumer metrics (air travel, hotels, restaurants, Statue of Liberty visits). Falling oil prices are a welcome tailwind but may boost demand and keep core inflation sticky near 3%. AI spending boom and tax cuts (One Beautiful Bill) add further growth tailwinds. Front-end rates have fallen as markets price out hikes, but long rates are sticky. Fed's Warsh likely to be cautious and data-dependent. Overall, inflation is becoming more 'transitory' on energy, but core inflation remains a challenge.

Emily Ashworth from Standard Chartered Bank analyzes the oil market after the US-Iran deal. She says the market has unwound some risk premium but not priced in a full return to the status quo. She expects a residual risk premium for Gulf barrels. She provides a detailed timeline for supply recovery: 30-40% in weeks, up to 80% within a year, with 10-20% requiring multi-year remediation. Key uncertainties are OPEC+ reaction and demand recovery, including US strategic reserve refilling.

Sen. Johnson (R-WI) discusses the Iran nuclear deal: he distrusts the regime, supports maintaining military leverage, and sees a deal as lowering geopolitical risk and oil prices. He credits Trump's pro-drilling policy for lower long-term energy costs. He also supports FISA reauthorization with civil liberty reforms.

Phil Strebel of Blue Line Futures analyzes precious metals, copper, and cross-asset markets. He argues that gold's performance depends on the economic regime: stagflation (rising inflation + slowing consumer) is bullish, while rising inflation + strong consumer is bearish. The key driver for a sustained metals rally is normalization of energy flows (Iran/Strait of Hormuz) and declining inflation expectations. Persistent ETF outflows cap rallies. He provides technical levels for gold, silver, copper, and platinum, and notes the upcoming Fed meeting as a key event.

Ben Snider (Goldman Sachs) says the Iran ceasefire reduces the risk of a second-half deceleration from high energy prices. He notes the market rally is broad due to positioning unwinding (both hedge fund longs and shorts up ~4%), not just economics. AI earnings remain the strongest growth story for 2027, but the Fed is likely on hold for the near future. Equity issuance is a record in dollar terms but normal relative to market cap (~1%).

President Trump stated the Iran MOU is not final and threatened to resume bombing if negotiations fail. This reintroduces military risk, potentially reversing the recent removal of the war premium from oil markets and threatening the fragile stability that had supported risk assets.

Hooper believes the FOMC will be far more concerned about inflation than weakening growth. She expects them to eliminate their easing bias and discuss what could trigger a rate hike, potentially as soon as this summer. She sees vulnerabilities in the economy, with the top 10% of consumers responsible for 50% of spending. The equity market has not yet reacted negatively to the possibility of a hike, but multiple headwinds (downward earnings revisions plus a hike) could be problematic. She also sees risks in the AI trade, with investors becoming more discerning about financing.

Rob Thummel argues oil is fairly priced at ~$80 based on a 50/50 probability scenario: either inventories continue to deplete pushing prices to $100, or normalization of supply (pre-war oversupply) brings oil to $60. The market has already priced in a likely reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Julian Emanuel (Evercore) is bullish on equities, citing strong retail participation, declining oil (positive for consumers), fading recession risk, and the end of Fed rate hikes. He sees S&P 500 reaching 7750 (base) and 9000 (bull case), driven by structural tech trends and still-unstretched multiples. He notes $8 trillion in money market funds as potential fuel, and believes inflation has peaked, which should keep yields from rising further.