Former Fed official Lael Brainard analyzes Kevin Warsh's first press conference, noting the hawkish shift from SEP projections showing 3.3% core inflation and potential rate hikes, while Warsh's task forces on inflation framework and productivity could signal a more dovish path. She identifies multiple inflation drivers—oil disruptions and AI/data-center investment—keeping core inflation elevated near-term, with AI potentially disinflationary long-term. Equity upside from AI is substantial but vulnerable to correction if revenues disappoint.
implicit
explicit
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Metals
USD
Federal Reserve
9.5
Central Bank
Lael Brainard 8.0
Central Bank
Lael Brainard 8.0
US 10y; Fed funds
6/18/2026 10:11:51 PM
ndx
If we see a really big piece of data that suggests that revenues are not going to justify these valuations, you could see a pretty big correction.
| 6/18/2026 12:30:10 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -3.90% | +3.90% |
| 6/17/2026 11:59:54 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -3.48% | +3.48% |
| 6/17/2026 11:43:36 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -3.48% | +3.48% |
| 6/3/2026 1:55:50 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -3.91% | -1.95% |
| 5/22/2026 11:46:36 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +2.52% | +2.52% |
| 5/15/2026 6:46:19 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.68% | -1.68% |
| 4/21/2026 10:56:53 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.37% | -1.37% |
| 4/21/2026 10:53:54 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.37% | -1.37% |
| 4/21/2026 9:02:49 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.37% | -1.37% |
| 1/30/2026 11:22:22 AM | short term down | 7 days later | -1.83% | +1.83% |
| 1/16/2026 6:35:13 PM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | +0.72% | -1.08% |
| 1/13/2026 2:09:12 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.25% | -0.25% |
| 1/12/2026 10:19:49 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -0.83% | +0.83% |
| 11/12/2025 7:56:09 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.45% | +1.23% |
| 11/10/2025 11:28:21 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -2.87% | +1.44% |
| 11/4/2025 10:02:59 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.03% | +0.02% |
| 9/24/2025 7:15:12 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.16% | -0.58% |
| 9/10/2025 2:40:48 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.17% | +1.17% |
| 8/28/2025 11:22:55 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -+0.00% | -+0.00% |
| 8/22/2025 11:32:42 PM | short term sharp up | 8 days later | -0.83% | -1.25% |
| 8/21/2025 1:01:24 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +0.29% | +0.14% |
| 8/6/2025 4:32:08 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.92% | -0.96% |
| 8/6/2025 4:30:01 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.92% | -0.96% |
rut
The guest focuses on large-cap AI-driven markets and inflation pressures that disproportionately affect small caps. No explicit mention of RUT, but the hawkish rate hike scenario and elevated inflation would likely keep small caps rangebound.
wti
Core inflation could be given an uplift from oil for at least several months.
| 6/16/2026 5:26:07 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.57% | +2.57% |
| 6/5/2026 12:29:58 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -11.56% | -5.78% |
| 6/4/2026 10:42:15 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.56% | -0.56% |
| 5/22/2026 11:46:36 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -9.57% | +9.57% |
| 5/22/2026 4:30:38 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -9.57% | +14.35% |
| 5/21/2026 7:50:07 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -9.20% | -13.80% |
| 5/21/2026 12:18:28 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -9.20% | -9.20% |
| 5/15/2026 9:33:59 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -15.98% | -7.99% |
| 5/14/2026 6:15:43 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -6.79% | -6.79% |
| 5/12/2026 11:55:09 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +11.34% |
| 5/12/2026 8:03:12 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +11.34% |
| 5/8/2026 9:43:37 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -6.03% | +3.01% |
| 5/8/2026 2:16:47 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +16.20% |
| 5/7/2026 9:32:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 5/7/2026 8:36:03 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 5/7/2026 8:22:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 4/30/2026 1:27:38 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -6.73% | -3.36% |
| 4/29/2026 9:59:50 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/29/2026 8:25:38 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/22/2026 1:15:04 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +4.26% | +6.38% |
| 4/21/2026 10:56:53 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +5.50% |
| 4/21/2026 10:53:54 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +5.50% |
| 4/21/2026 10:49:31 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +1.83% |
| 4/21/2026 9:02:49 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +3.67% |
| 4/7/2026 4:38:39 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.95% | +4.95% |
| 4/7/2026 4:34:26 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.95% | +4.95% |
| 4/2/2026 1:24:49 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -15.36% | -7.68% |
| 3/23/2026 4:18:40 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +11.40% | +11.40% |
| 3/23/2026 3:29:56 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +7.29% | +7.29% |
| 3/23/2026 3:17:02 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +11.40% | +11.40% |
| 3/20/2026 5:36:27 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/20/2026 4:29:36 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/19/2026 12:11:26 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -12.21% |
| 3/18/2026 11:29:30 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -5.91% |
| 3/18/2026 9:30:00 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 3/18/2026 8:57:23 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 3/17/2026 12:28:12 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.50% | -8.50% |
| 3/9/2026 4:35:07 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/7/2026 5:57:18 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +8.59% | +8.59% |
| 3/6/2026 9:15:32 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +8.59% | +8.59% |
| 3/6/2026 3:21:26 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +8.59% | +12.89% |
| 3/5/2026 5:39:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 3/5/2026 4:38:35 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 9/23/2025 11:29:28 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.37% | -2.37% |
| 9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.45% | +3.45% |
| 8/28/2025 10:35:20 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.06% | +0.06% |
| 8/20/2025 10:17:30 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.43% |
yields
Warsh's task forces on inflation framework and productivity could move the committee in a more dovish direction, potentially lowering yields over the medium term if inflation expectations moderate.
