Former Fed Vice Chair Rich Clarida discusses the FOMC's unexpectedly hawkish statement and dot plot under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Nine of 18 members penciled in rate hikes for 2026, core PCE inflation forecasts were revised sharply higher to 3.3%, and the statement was shortened to four paragraphs with a focus on price stability. Clarida notes the inflation pressure is broad-based, not just energy, and that Warsh's omission of a dot signals a potential move away from the dot plot framework. Markets reacted with higher short-term yields and lower equities.

explicit

explicit
Oil
Metals
USD
US 2Y sharp up
Federal Reserve 9.5
Central Bank
Rich Clarida 8.5
Instant Reaction: The Fed Decides | Bloomberg Intelligence
6/17/2026 11:59:54 PM
ndx
The Nasdaq is continuing to decline, down 2/3 of 1%.
23 calls
+2
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
6/17/2026 11:43:36 PM short term down 5 days later -3.48% +3.48%
6/3/2026 1:55:50 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -3.91% -1.95%
5/22/2026 11:46:36 PM short term up 5 days later +2.52% +2.52%
5/15/2026 6:46:19 PM short term down 6 days later +1.68% -1.68%
4/21/2026 10:56:53 PM short term down 5 days later +1.37% -1.37%
4/21/2026 10:53:54 PM short term down 5 days later +1.37% -1.37%
4/21/2026 9:02:49 PM short term down 5 days later +1.37% -1.37%
1/30/2026 11:22:22 AM short term down 7 days later -1.83% +1.83%
1/16/2026 6:35:13 PM short term sharp down 7 days later +0.72% -1.08%
1/13/2026 2:09:12 AM short term down 5 days later +0.25% -0.25%
1/12/2026 10:19:49 AM short term down 6 days later -0.83% +0.83%
11/12/2025 7:56:09 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +2.45% +1.23%
11/10/2025 11:28:21 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -2.87% +1.44%
11/4/2025 10:02:59 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.03% +0.02%
9/24/2025 7:15:12 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.16% -0.58%
9/10/2025 2:40:48 PM short term up 5 days later +1.17% +1.17%
8/28/2025 11:22:55 PM short term up 5 days later -+0.00% -+0.00%
8/22/2025 11:32:42 PM short term sharp up 8 days later -0.83% -1.25%
8/21/2025 1:01:24 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +0.29% +0.14%
8/6/2025 4:32:08 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.92% -0.96%
8/6/2025 4:30:01 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.92% -0.96%
Show all 21 ndx results
rut
Broad market sell-off with S&P 500 down 0.6% and Nasdaq declining; small caps typically follow large cap weakness in risk-off moves driven by hawkish Fed.
yields
Two-year yield up nine basis points to 4.13%.
185 calls
+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
6/17/2026 11:43:36 PM short term up 5 days later +0.94% +0.94%
6/17/2026 11:26:18 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.94% +1.42%
5/28/2026 9:19:50 PM medium term up 20 days later -0.04% -0.04%
5/28/2026 1:09:39 AM medium term up 20 days later -0.04% -0.04%
5/26/2026 3:37:50 PM short term up 5 days later -0.13% -0.13%
5/22/2026 9:31:07 PM medium term cautious up 22 days later -1.95% -0.98%
5/22/2026 5:45:12 PM medium term sharp up 22 days later -1.95% -2.93%
5/19/2026 7:30:09 PM short term down 5 days later -0.31% +0.31%
5/18/2026 4:30:56 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.46% +1.23%
5/15/2026 9:33:59 PM medium term sharp up 21 days later -1.54% -2.30%
5/14/2026 3:58:16 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.57% +1.28%
5/13/2026 8:31:28 PM short term up 5 days later +4.62% +4.62%
5/6/2026 9:31:19 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +1.62% +0.81%
4/29/2026 9:59:50 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +0.59% +0.30%
4/22/2026 1:15:04 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.65% +1.83%
4/21/2026 10:49:31 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +0.98% +0.49%
4/21/2026 9:02:49 PM short term up 5 days later +0.98% +0.98%
4/16/2026 4:46:20 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.44% +1.72%
4/9/2026 12:35:56 AM medium term up 20 days later +1.69% +1.69%
4/1/2026 10:00:00 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.44% +0.22%
3/30/2026 9:16:07 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.41% +0.71%
3/18/2026 11:29:30 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.23% +0.12%
3/18/2026 8:57:23 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.23% -0.12%
3/6/2026 6:25:25 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +3.68% +1.84%
3/5/2026 10:19:45 AM medium term down 20 days later +6.85% -6.85%
3/4/2026 2:04:00 PM medium term up 20 days later +4.39% +4.39%
2/25/2026 12:14:44 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +6.02% -3.01%
2/24/2026 5:28:52 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +3.80% -1.90%
1/31/2026 1:39:54 AM short term cautious down 7 days later -1.80% +0.90%
1/30/2026 4:06:49 PM short term up 7 days later -1.80% -1.80%
1/21/2026 10:03:18 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.81% -0.91%
1/15/2026 8:49:33 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.50% +0.25%
1/15/2026 4:20:34 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.50% +0.25%
1/15/2026 12:26:20 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.52% -0.26%
1/13/2026 2:09:12 AM short term up 5 days later +2.20% +2.20%
1/8/2026 11:18:05 PM medium term down 20 days later +1.34% -1.34%
1/8/2026 5:00:02 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +1.34% -0.67%
12/23/2025 1:43:04 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.85% -0.42%
12/22/2025 6:49:39 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -1.27% +0.64%
12/22/2025 6:31:04 PM medium term down 20 days later +0.43% -0.43%
12/19/2025 4:38:22 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later +0.43% -0.22%
12/17/2025 4:02:54 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.53% -0.27%
12/12/2025 11:35:37 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -0.41% +0.20%
12/12/2025 7:30:18 PM long term cautious down 60 days later -3.01% +1.51%
12/12/2025 4:27:07 PM long term cautious down 60 days later -3.01% +1.51%
12/11/2025 8:07:07 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -0.17% +0.08%
12/10/2025 11:45:00 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.19% -0.10%
12/10/2025 10:06:22 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.19% -0.10%
12/10/2025 9:59:59 PM short term down 5 days later +0.19% -0.19%
12/10/2025 9:58:25 PM short term down 5 days later +0.19% -0.19%
12/8/2025 4:22:22 PM short term down 6 days later -0.10% +0.10%
11/25/2025 1:10:38 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.45% -1.23%
11/25/2025 10:11:27 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.45% -1.23%
11/21/2025 4:18:30 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later +3.57% -1.78%
11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM short term down 5 days later -2.30% +2.30%
11/10/2025 7:15:17 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.58% +0.29%
11/10/2025 5:17:27 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.58% +0.29%
11/7/2025 10:50:35 PM medium term down 21 days later -0.34% +0.34%
11/4/2025 2:28:09 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.13% +0.57%
11/4/2025 2:28:09 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.13% +0.57%
11/3/2025 9:06:33 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.25% -0.62%
11/3/2025 7:15:45 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.51% -0.26%
11/3/2025 5:15:56 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.25% -0.62%
11/3/2025 3:04:15 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.25% +0.62%
10/30/2025 5:30:59 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.12% -0.06%
10/30/2025 1:30:10 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.37% -0.68%
10/30/2025 1:00:07 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.37% -0.68%
10/29/2025 11:38:10 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 10:44:00 PM short term down 5 days later -0.10% +0.10%
10/29/2025 10:11:32 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 10:00:33 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.98% -0.49%
10/29/2025 9:40:37 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.98% -0.49%
10/29/2025 9:34:46 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 9:30:01 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 9:19:58 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.98% +0.49%
10/29/2025 9:15:22 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.98% -0.49%
10/29/2025 9:15:00 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.98% +0.49%
10/29/2025 9:08:09 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.10% -0.05%
10/29/2025 9:05:01 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.98% -0.49%
10/29/2025 9:02:24 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 8:57:22 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/27/2025 1:59:40 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +3.09% -1.54%
10/24/2025 8:55:32 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later +3.40% -1.70%
10/16/2025 6:04:41 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.35% +0.67%
10/16/2025 4:52:44 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +2.15% -1.07%
10/16/2025 4:01:47 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +2.15% -1.07%
10/15/2025 9:05:27 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +4.55% -2.28%
10/15/2025 8:00:24 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +4.55% -2.28%
10/15/2025 5:49:02 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.33% +0.16%
10/15/2025 1:03:55 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -0.33% +0.49%
10/15/2025 12:59:00 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -0.33% +0.49%
10/14/2025 11:49:39 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.06% +0.53%
10/14/2025 10:05:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.48% +0.74%
10/14/2025 9:31:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +1.06% -0.53%
10/14/2025 9:15:03 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.06% +0.53%
10/14/2025 7:56:12 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.06% +0.53%
10/10/2025 6:15:07 PM medium term cautious down 22 days later +1.36% -0.68%
10/6/2025 2:55:45 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.84% +0.92%
10/3/2025 6:45:12 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later -3.96% -1.98%
10/3/2025 5:48:20 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -3.96% +1.98%
10/3/2025 5:24:31 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -3.96% +1.98%
9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.36% -0.68%
9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.36% -0.68%
9/29/2025 4:51:12 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -3.91% -1.95%
9/26/2025 3:41:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.24% +1.62%
9/26/2025 7:55:36 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.24% +1.62%
9/25/2025 9:08:46 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.04% +2.52%
9/25/2025 6:06:52 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.04% +2.52%
9/25/2025 4:23:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.04% +2.52%
9/25/2025 2:39:06 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.93% +0.97%
9/23/2025 8:17:55 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.14% +0.07%
9/23/2025 4:45:06 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.14% +0.07%
9/23/2025 4:21:15 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.01% +1.51%
9/22/2025 10:12:27 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.51% -0.25%
9/22/2025 7:01:00 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.51% -0.25%
9/19/2025 7:19:43 PM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.05% +0.02%
9/19/2025 5:36:26 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -2.22% -1.11%
9/19/2025 4:18:23 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.22% +1.11%
9/19/2025 4:05:04 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.22% +1.11%
9/19/2025 3:30:59 PM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.05% +0.02%
9/18/2025 11:18:42 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.22% -0.11%
9/18/2025 2:13:16 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.19% -0.10%
9/18/2025 2:00:01 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.22% -0.11%
9/17/2025 11:14:58 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.61% +0.30%
9/17/2025 10:48:21 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:45:01 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:16:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:12:22 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.61% -0.30%
9/17/2025 10:09:39 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:03:46 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:00:17 PM short term down 5 days later +0.39% -0.39%
9/16/2025 3:38:44 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.64% -0.82%
9/16/2025 3:30:44 PM short term down 5 days later +1.64% -1.64%
9/15/2025 4:08:28 PM short term down 6 days later +2.91% -2.91%
9/12/2025 2:49:43 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +2.70% -1.35%
9/10/2025 2:40:48 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/8/2025 3:31:50 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -0.98% +0.49%
9/4/2025 5:58:21 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +2.10% +1.05%
9/3/2025 5:47:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.69% +0.35%
9/3/2025 5:46:57 PM medium term sharp down 20 days later -0.69% +1.04%
9/3/2025 4:33:59 PM short term down 5 days later -2.44% +2.44%
9/3/2025 4:33:52 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.44% +1.22%
8/29/2025 4:29:23 PM short term cautious up 6 days later -5.40% -2.70%
8/29/2025 2:20:50 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 2:11:04 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 10:48:16 AM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 10:10:30 AM short term down 6 days later -5.40% +5.40%
8/29/2025 2:27:21 AM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/28/2025 2:23:04 PM long term up 60 days later -5.77% -5.77%
8/27/2025 5:54:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.11% +1.56%
8/27/2025 4:26:23 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.11% +1.56%
8/26/2025 6:50:08 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -5.00% -2.50%
8/26/2025 8:42:05 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/25/2025 6:17:17 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.26% +2.63%
8/25/2025 5:57:59 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.26% +2.63%
8/25/2025 8:38:14 AM short term cautious down 7 days later +0.45% -0.22%
8/22/2025 11:32:42 PM short term down 8 days later +0.05% -0.05%
8/22/2025 9:51:01 PM short term cautious down 8 days later +0.05% -0.02%
8/22/2025 8:49:41 PM short term cautious down 8 days later +0.05% -0.02%
8/22/2025 8:13:21 PM short term cautious down 8 days later +0.05% -0.02%
8/20/2025 4:24:10 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -1.66% -0.83%
8/15/2025 8:22:39 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later -6.80% -3.40%
8/15/2025 4:22:33 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later -6.80% -3.40%
8/14/2025 11:48:29 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.74% +0.37%
8/14/2025 6:32:32 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -3.51% -1.76%
8/12/2025 11:45:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/12/2025 11:24:12 PM medium term sharp down 20 days later +0.92% -1.38%
8/12/2025 4:25:35 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/12/2025 7:46:47 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.43% -1.22%
8/7/2025 7:17:58 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.82% +0.91%
8/7/2025 6:16:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.10% +0.55%
8/7/2025 5:34:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.82% +0.91%
8/6/2025 4:32:08 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.14% +0.07%
8/6/2025 4:30:01 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.14% +0.07%
8/5/2025 12:45:01 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.90% -0.45%
7/30/2025 11:06:39 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.47% -0.73%
7/30/2025 9:54:37 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.47% -0.73%
Show all 178 yields results

SignalTube

markets at a glance