The Fed under Chair Warsh kept rates unchanged but signaled a potential hike, while reducing transparency. This caused a sharp spike in 2-year yields (16-month high), a broad equity selloff (Dow -500, S&P -1%, Nasdaq -1.5%), and increased expected volatility. The guest argues this repricing undermines the market's 'broadening' narrative, which requires stable yields and solid macro to work.

explicit

explicit
Oil
Metals
USD
Federal Reserve 9.5
Central Bank
Kevin Warsh 8.5
Warsh experiences worst 'Fed day' S&P 500 performance for a new chair since 1994
$SPY
6/18/2026 12:30:10 AM
ndx
the Nasdaq losing about 1 and 1/2
23 calls
+2
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
6/17/2026 11:59:54 PM short term down 5 days later -3.48% +3.48%
6/17/2026 11:43:36 PM short term down 5 days later -3.48% +3.48%
6/3/2026 1:55:50 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -3.91% -1.95%
5/22/2026 11:46:36 PM short term up 5 days later +2.52% +2.52%
5/15/2026 6:46:19 PM short term down 6 days later +1.68% -1.68%
4/21/2026 10:56:53 PM short term down 5 days later +1.37% -1.37%
4/21/2026 10:53:54 PM short term down 5 days later +1.37% -1.37%
4/21/2026 9:02:49 PM short term down 5 days later +1.37% -1.37%
1/30/2026 11:22:22 AM short term down 7 days later -1.83% +1.83%
1/16/2026 6:35:13 PM short term sharp down 7 days later +0.72% -1.08%
1/13/2026 2:09:12 AM short term down 5 days later +0.25% -0.25%
1/12/2026 10:19:49 AM short term down 6 days later -0.83% +0.83%
11/12/2025 7:56:09 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +2.45% +1.23%
11/10/2025 11:28:21 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -2.87% +1.44%
11/4/2025 10:02:59 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.03% +0.02%
9/24/2025 7:15:12 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.16% -0.58%
9/10/2025 2:40:48 PM short term up 5 days later +1.17% +1.17%
8/28/2025 11:22:55 PM short term up 5 days later -+0.00% -+0.00%
8/22/2025 11:32:42 PM short term sharp up 8 days later -0.83% -1.25%
8/21/2025 1:01:24 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +0.29% +0.14%
8/6/2025 4:32:08 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.92% -0.96%
8/6/2025 4:30:01 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.92% -0.96%
Show all 22 ndx results
rut
Broad market selloff with Dow -500 and S&P -1% implies small caps also declined. The guest notes the 'broadening idea' requires stable yields, which were taken away, suggesting broad-based weakness including small caps.
yields
16-month high in two-year note yields... a pretty significant repricing of what the Fed might do
185 calls
+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
6/17/2026 11:59:54 PM short term up 5 days later +0.94% +0.94%
6/17/2026 11:43:36 PM short term up 5 days later +0.94% +0.94%
6/17/2026 11:26:18 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.94% +1.42%
5/28/2026 9:19:50 PM medium term up 20 days later -0.04% -0.04%
5/28/2026 1:09:39 AM medium term up 20 days later -0.04% -0.04%
5/26/2026 3:37:50 PM short term up 5 days later -0.13% -0.13%
5/22/2026 9:31:07 PM medium term cautious up 22 days later -1.95% -0.98%
5/22/2026 5:45:12 PM medium term sharp up 22 days later -1.95% -2.93%
5/19/2026 7:30:09 PM short term down 5 days later -0.31% +0.31%
5/18/2026 4:30:56 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.46% +1.23%
5/15/2026 9:33:59 PM medium term sharp up 21 days later -1.54% -2.30%
5/14/2026 3:58:16 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.57% +1.28%
5/13/2026 8:31:28 PM short term up 5 days later +4.62% +4.62%
5/6/2026 9:31:19 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +1.62% +0.81%
4/29/2026 9:59:50 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +0.59% +0.30%
4/22/2026 1:15:04 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.65% +1.83%
4/21/2026 10:49:31 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +0.98% +0.49%
4/21/2026 9:02:49 PM short term up 5 days later +0.98% +0.98%
4/16/2026 4:46:20 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.44% +1.72%
4/9/2026 12:35:56 AM medium term up 20 days later +1.69% +1.69%
4/1/2026 10:00:00 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.44% +0.22%
3/30/2026 9:16:07 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.41% +0.71%
3/18/2026 11:29:30 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.23% +0.12%
3/18/2026 8:57:23 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.23% -0.12%
3/6/2026 6:25:25 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +3.68% +1.84%
3/5/2026 10:19:45 AM medium term down 20 days later +6.85% -6.85%
3/4/2026 2:04:00 PM medium term up 20 days later +4.39% +4.39%
2/25/2026 12:14:44 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +6.02% -3.01%
2/24/2026 5:28:52 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +3.80% -1.90%
1/31/2026 1:39:54 AM short term cautious down 7 days later -1.80% +0.90%
1/30/2026 4:06:49 PM short term up 7 days later -1.80% -1.80%
1/21/2026 10:03:18 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.81% -0.91%
1/15/2026 8:49:33 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.50% +0.25%
1/15/2026 4:20:34 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.50% +0.25%
1/15/2026 12:26:20 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.52% -0.26%
1/13/2026 2:09:12 AM short term up 5 days later +2.20% +2.20%
1/8/2026 11:18:05 PM medium term down 20 days later +1.34% -1.34%
1/8/2026 5:00:02 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +1.34% -0.67%
12/23/2025 1:43:04 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.85% -0.42%
12/22/2025 6:49:39 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -1.27% +0.64%
12/22/2025 6:31:04 PM medium term down 20 days later +0.43% -0.43%
12/19/2025 4:38:22 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later +0.43% -0.22%
12/17/2025 4:02:54 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.53% -0.27%
12/12/2025 11:35:37 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -0.41% +0.20%
12/12/2025 7:30:18 PM long term cautious down 60 days later -3.01% +1.51%
12/12/2025 4:27:07 PM long term cautious down 60 days later -3.01% +1.51%
12/11/2025 8:07:07 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -0.17% +0.08%
12/10/2025 11:45:00 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.19% -0.10%
12/10/2025 10:06:22 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.19% -0.10%
12/10/2025 9:59:59 PM short term down 5 days later +0.19% -0.19%
12/10/2025 9:58:25 PM short term down 5 days later +0.19% -0.19%
12/8/2025 4:22:22 PM short term down 6 days later -0.10% +0.10%
11/25/2025 1:10:38 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.45% -1.23%
11/25/2025 10:11:27 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.45% -1.23%
11/21/2025 4:18:30 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later +3.57% -1.78%
11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM short term down 5 days later -2.30% +2.30%
11/10/2025 7:15:17 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.58% +0.29%
11/10/2025 5:17:27 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.58% +0.29%
11/7/2025 10:50:35 PM medium term down 21 days later -0.34% +0.34%
11/4/2025 2:28:09 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.13% +0.57%
11/4/2025 2:28:09 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.13% +0.57%
11/3/2025 9:06:33 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.25% -0.62%
11/3/2025 7:15:45 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.51% -0.26%
11/3/2025 5:15:56 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.25% -0.62%
11/3/2025 3:04:15 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.25% +0.62%
10/30/2025 5:30:59 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.12% -0.06%
10/30/2025 1:30:10 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.37% -0.68%
10/30/2025 1:00:07 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.37% -0.68%
10/29/2025 11:38:10 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 10:44:00 PM short term down 5 days later -0.10% +0.10%
10/29/2025 10:11:32 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 10:00:33 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.98% -0.49%
10/29/2025 9:40:37 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.98% -0.49%
10/29/2025 9:34:46 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 9:30:01 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 9:19:58 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.98% +0.49%
10/29/2025 9:15:22 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.98% -0.49%
10/29/2025 9:15:00 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.98% +0.49%
10/29/2025 9:08:09 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.10% -0.05%
10/29/2025 9:05:01 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.98% -0.49%
10/29/2025 9:02:24 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 8:57:22 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/27/2025 1:59:40 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +3.09% -1.54%
10/24/2025 8:55:32 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later +3.40% -1.70%
10/16/2025 6:04:41 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.35% +0.67%
10/16/2025 4:52:44 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +2.15% -1.07%
10/16/2025 4:01:47 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +2.15% -1.07%
10/15/2025 9:05:27 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +4.55% -2.28%
10/15/2025 8:00:24 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +4.55% -2.28%
10/15/2025 5:49:02 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.33% +0.16%
10/15/2025 1:03:55 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -0.33% +0.49%
10/15/2025 12:59:00 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -0.33% +0.49%
10/14/2025 11:49:39 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.06% +0.53%
10/14/2025 10:05:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.48% +0.74%
10/14/2025 9:31:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +1.06% -0.53%
10/14/2025 9:15:03 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.06% +0.53%
10/14/2025 7:56:12 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.06% +0.53%
10/10/2025 6:15:07 PM medium term cautious down 22 days later +1.36% -0.68%
10/6/2025 2:55:45 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.84% +0.92%
10/3/2025 6:45:12 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later -3.96% -1.98%
10/3/2025 5:48:20 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -3.96% +1.98%
10/3/2025 5:24:31 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -3.96% +1.98%
9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.36% -0.68%
9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.36% -0.68%
9/29/2025 4:51:12 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -3.91% -1.95%
9/26/2025 3:41:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.24% +1.62%
9/26/2025 7:55:36 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.24% +1.62%
9/25/2025 9:08:46 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.04% +2.52%
9/25/2025 6:06:52 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.04% +2.52%
9/25/2025 4:23:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.04% +2.52%
9/25/2025 2:39:06 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.93% +0.97%
9/23/2025 8:17:55 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.14% +0.07%
9/23/2025 4:45:06 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.14% +0.07%
9/23/2025 4:21:15 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.01% +1.51%
9/22/2025 10:12:27 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.51% -0.25%
9/22/2025 7:01:00 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.51% -0.25%
9/19/2025 7:19:43 PM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.05% +0.02%
9/19/2025 5:36:26 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -2.22% -1.11%
9/19/2025 4:18:23 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.22% +1.11%
9/19/2025 4:05:04 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.22% +1.11%
9/19/2025 3:30:59 PM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.05% +0.02%
9/18/2025 11:18:42 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.22% -0.11%
9/18/2025 2:13:16 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.19% -0.10%
9/18/2025 2:00:01 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.22% -0.11%
9/17/2025 11:14:58 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.61% +0.30%
9/17/2025 10:48:21 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:45:01 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:16:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:12:22 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.61% -0.30%
9/17/2025 10:09:39 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:03:46 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:00:17 PM short term down 5 days later +0.39% -0.39%
9/16/2025 3:38:44 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.64% -0.82%
9/16/2025 3:30:44 PM short term down 5 days later +1.64% -1.64%
9/15/2025 4:08:28 PM short term down 6 days later +2.91% -2.91%
9/12/2025 2:49:43 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +2.70% -1.35%
9/10/2025 2:40:48 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/8/2025 3:31:50 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -0.98% +0.49%
9/4/2025 5:58:21 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +2.10% +1.05%
9/3/2025 5:47:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.69% +0.35%
9/3/2025 5:46:57 PM medium term sharp down 20 days later -0.69% +1.04%
9/3/2025 4:33:59 PM short term down 5 days later -2.44% +2.44%
9/3/2025 4:33:52 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.44% +1.22%
8/29/2025 4:29:23 PM short term cautious up 6 days later -5.40% -2.70%
8/29/2025 2:20:50 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 2:11:04 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 10:48:16 AM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 10:10:30 AM short term down 6 days later -5.40% +5.40%
8/29/2025 2:27:21 AM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/28/2025 2:23:04 PM long term up 60 days later -5.77% -5.77%
8/27/2025 5:54:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.11% +1.56%
8/27/2025 4:26:23 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.11% +1.56%
8/26/2025 6:50:08 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -5.00% -2.50%
8/26/2025 8:42:05 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/25/2025 6:17:17 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.26% +2.63%
8/25/2025 5:57:59 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.26% +2.63%
8/25/2025 8:38:14 AM short term cautious down 7 days later +0.45% -0.22%
8/22/2025 11:32:42 PM short term down 8 days later +0.05% -0.05%
8/22/2025 9:51:01 PM short term cautious down 8 days later +0.05% -0.02%
8/22/2025 8:49:41 PM short term cautious down 8 days later +0.05% -0.02%
8/22/2025 8:13:21 PM short term cautious down 8 days later +0.05% -0.02%
8/20/2025 4:24:10 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -1.66% -0.83%
8/15/2025 8:22:39 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later -6.80% -3.40%
8/15/2025 4:22:33 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later -6.80% -3.40%
8/14/2025 11:48:29 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.74% +0.37%
8/14/2025 6:32:32 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -3.51% -1.76%
8/12/2025 11:45:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/12/2025 11:24:12 PM medium term sharp down 20 days later +0.92% -1.38%
8/12/2025 4:25:35 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/12/2025 7:46:47 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.43% -1.22%
8/7/2025 7:17:58 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.82% +0.91%
8/7/2025 6:16:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.10% +0.55%
8/7/2025 5:34:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.82% +0.91%
8/6/2025 4:32:08 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.14% +0.07%
8/6/2025 4:30:01 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.14% +0.07%
8/5/2025 12:45:01 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.90% -0.45%
7/30/2025 11:06:39 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.47% -0.73%
7/30/2025 9:54:37 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.47% -0.73%
Show all 179 yields results

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