Keith Buchanan (Global Investments) argues the AI story is intact but market sentiment has priced in too many winners at perfection-level valuations. Returns on invested capital will separate winners from losers over 3-5 years. He recommends diversifying away from concentrated AI/mega-cap exposure into small caps, value, international, and select sectors like industrials (Caterpillar) and airlines (Delta). He flags the upcoming jobs report as a key volatility catalyst bridging inflation and growth.
explicit
implicit
Oil
Metals
USD
Delta Airlines (stock) cautious up
Charles Schwab
8.0
Asset Manager $890.00B
Keith Buchanan 7.0
Asset Manager $890.00B
Keith Buchanan 7.0
6/30/2026 1:00:14 AM
ndx
Buchanan says AI/mega-cap valuations are at risk because the market is pricing in too many winners and perfection. Returns on invested capital will threaten valuations over 3-5 years. He recommends rotating away from these names.
rut
Diversification from large to small makes sense. Owning spaces not directly or even adjacent to AI infrastructure push.
| 6/23/2026 6:00:13 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +0.80% | +0.40% |
| 6/19/2026 2:00:05 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.20% | +0.20% |
| 6/18/2026 1:00:06 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.23% | -0.23% |
| 6/17/2026 7:00:30 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.14% | -0.14% |
| 6/16/2026 3:33:45 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +2.96% | +2.96% |
| 6/16/2026 2:00:34 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +2.96% | +1.48% |
| 6/15/2026 3:31:55 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +2.22% | +2.22% |
| 6/13/2026 2:00:23 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +1.33% | +1.99% |
| 6/12/2026 2:00:09 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +1.33% | +1.99% |
| 6/11/2026 2:00:05 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.88% | +0.88% |
| 6/9/2026 3:42:43 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.57% | +4.57% |
| 6/8/2026 11:37:26 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +5.00% | +5.00% |
| 6/5/2026 4:00:33 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +3.84% | +3.84% |
| 6/5/2026 2:00:05 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +3.84% | +3.84% |
| 5/29/2026 3:30:30 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -1.73% | -0.87% |
| 5/24/2026 4:30:31 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +3.34% | +3.34% |
| 5/21/2026 3:30:57 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.77% | +1.77% |
| 5/19/2026 7:00:05 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.84% | -0.92% |
| 5/9/2026 5:00:57 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +1.22% | +1.22% |
| 5/8/2026 7:01:43 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -3.33% | -1.66% |
| 5/7/2026 10:23:56 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.60% | +0.30% |
| 4/24/2026 4:01:46 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.47% | -0.47% |
| 3/28/2026 1:00:55 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +5.25% | +5.25% |
| 3/9/2026 3:30:01 PM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.76% | +1.76% |
| 3/3/2026 7:15:05 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -3.12% | +3.12% |
| 2/18/2026 5:01:08 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.48% | -0.48% |
| 1/27/2026 2:00:35 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.50% | +0.50% |
| 12/12/2025 11:34:07 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +0.68% | +0.34% |
| 12/11/2025 6:01:13 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.32% | -2.32% |
| 11/18/2025 6:00:07 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.83% | -2.83% |
yields
Huge opportunity for volatility as this jobs report comes in and either confirms or denies recession fears or rate hikes that are higher rates going forward.
| 6/23/2026 9:00:24 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.64% | -0.32% |
| 6/23/2026 6:00:13 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.64% | -0.64% |
| 6/19/2026 1:00:15 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -2.99% | -2.99% |
| 6/18/2026 7:00:19 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.10% | +0.55% |
| 6/16/2026 3:33:45 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.03% | -0.52% |
| 6/10/2026 7:00:16 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.78% | -0.78% |
| 6/9/2026 1:00:34 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.61% | -0.80% |
| 6/8/2026 11:37:26 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.30% | -1.30% |
| 6/8/2026 6:04:18 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -3.40% | -1.70% |
| 6/5/2026 7:35:40 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.82% | -1.82% |
| 6/5/2026 4:30:04 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.82% | -1.82% |
| 6/4/2026 4:40:40 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.13% | -0.13% |
| 6/3/2026 7:30:39 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.14% | +1.14% |
| 6/2/2026 6:00:01 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.36% | +1.36% |
| 6/1/2026 3:30:31 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +2.18% | +1.09% |
| 5/29/2026 7:00:03 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +0.76% | +0.38% |
| 5/28/2026 7:00:37 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -0.04% | -0.02% |
| 5/26/2026 4:30:11 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.13% | +0.13% |
| 5/24/2026 4:30:31 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -1.95% | -1.95% |
| 5/23/2026 1:00:14 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.30% | -3.46% |
| 5/22/2026 7:01:08 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -2.30% | -1.15% |
| 5/21/2026 7:00:03 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -1.04% |
| 5/21/2026 3:30:57 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.69% | +1.69% |
| 5/20/2026 6:00:24 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.03% | -2.03% |
| 5/20/2026 4:30:01 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.03% | +1.01% |
| 5/20/2026 1:00:35 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.03% | -3.04% |
| 5/19/2026 7:00:05 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -0.96% | -1.44% |
| 5/19/2026 5:39:53 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | -0.96% | +0.96% |
| 5/18/2026 6:00:43 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.34% | -2.34% |
| 5/18/2026 3:30:42 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -2.46% | -1.23% |
| 5/15/2026 3:30:02 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.41% | -1.41% |
| 5/14/2026 7:01:22 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.25% |
| 5/14/2026 3:30:29 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.25% |
| 5/13/2026 6:00:58 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +4.62% | +6.93% |
| 5/13/2026 4:07:44 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.62% | +4.62% |
| 5/12/2026 6:01:10 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.17% | +4.75% |
| 5/12/2026 4:00:57 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.58% | +0.29% |
| 5/11/2026 7:00:43 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.59% | +3.59% |
| 5/11/2026 4:33:03 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.59% | +3.59% |
| 5/6/2026 7:01:28 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.62% | +1.62% |
| 5/4/2026 7:00:25 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +3.22% | +1.61% |
| 5/1/2026 8:00:31 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.52% | +1.26% |
| 5/1/2026 5:30:10 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.81% | +0.81% |
| 4/29/2026 10:30:10 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.59% | +0.59% |
| 4/22/2026 6:00:26 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.72% | -0.36% |
| 4/17/2026 7:00:31 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +3.76% | +3.76% |
| 4/10/2026 7:01:10 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +3.47% | +3.47% |
| 4/8/2026 7:30:12 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.86% | +0.86% |
| 3/27/2026 10:22:16 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -0.16% | -0.24% |
| 3/27/2026 6:00:24 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -0.16% | -0.08% |
| 3/26/2026 6:15:02 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.73% | -2.73% |
| 3/24/2026 3:30:35 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +0.32% | +0.16% |
| 3/23/2026 6:00:33 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -2.16% | -1.08% |
| 3/20/2026 4:35:56 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.85% | -0.85% |
| 3/17/2026 6:01:27 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.76% | -1.76% |
| 3/16/2026 6:01:06 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.14% | +3.14% |
| 2/23/2026 7:00:42 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +4.64% | +2.32% |
| 2/18/2026 7:00:31 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +3.26% | +1.63% |
| 2/13/2026 4:30:47 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.67% | +0.67% |
| 2/11/2026 7:35:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.27% | -1.27% |
| 2/11/2026 4:30:22 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.27% | -1.27% |
| 2/9/2026 7:00:36 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -2.19% | +1.10% |
| 1/30/2026 7:01:03 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.80% | -1.80% |
| 1/23/2026 8:46:35 PM | long term cautious up | 60 days later | +5.39% | +2.69% |
| 1/20/2026 7:01:32 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.94% | -0.94% |
| 1/7/2026 6:30:03 PM | long term cautious up | 60 days later | -1.12% | -0.56% |
| 12/31/2025 5:47:14 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.17% | -1.17% |
| 12/23/2025 5:54:44 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.48% | -0.48% |
| 12/17/2025 7:00:01 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.53% | +0.27% |
| 12/15/2025 6:00:31 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +0.48% | -0.48% |
| 12/11/2025 7:30:17 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.03% | +0.51% |
| 12/5/2025 8:31:08 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -1.34% | -0.67% |
| 12/1/2025 7:17:24 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.03% | +2.03% |
| 11/21/2025 6:00:06 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +1.44% | -0.72% |
| 11/14/2025 6:01:14 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -2.30% | -1.15% |
| 11/11/2025 1:00:57 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.67% | +1.67% |
| 11/5/2025 11:14:15 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +0.66% | +0.99% |
| 11/5/2025 6:00:18 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -2.32% | -1.16% |
| 10/31/2025 5:00:59 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +0.10% | -0.05% |
| 10/29/2025 5:30:29 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/27/2025 5:01:01 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.09% | +3.09% |
| 10/24/2025 8:41:31 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +2.73% | -1.36% |
| 10/24/2025 5:33:04 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.73% | +2.73% |
| 10/23/2025 7:03:38 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.53% | -0.76% |
| 10/21/2025 6:30:23 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.11% | -1.11% |
| 10/20/2025 6:30:14 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.86% | -0.43% |
| 10/16/2025 10:47:56 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.35% | +1.35% |
| 10/14/2025 6:01:25 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.48% | -0.74% |
| 10/14/2025 5:34:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.48% | +0.74% |
| 9/30/2025 5:42:26 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.36% | -0.68% |
| 9/29/2025 6:30:09 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +0.34% | +0.17% |
| 9/26/2025 6:27:34 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +0.51% | -0.25% |
| 9/22/2025 6:00:19 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.51% | -0.25% |
| 9/18/2025 5:45:03 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.22% | -0.11% |
| 9/17/2025 6:01:49 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/16/2025 11:52:11 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.64% | -0.82% |
| 9/15/2025 10:13:32 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +3.38% | -1.69% |
| 9/15/2025 6:00:38 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +2.91% | -1.45% |
| 9/12/2025 11:30:07 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +2.70% | -1.35% |
| 9/10/2025 11:30:15 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 9/5/2025 11:30:10 PM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | -0.30% | +0.44% |
| 9/3/2025 11:30:04 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.69% | +0.35% |
| 9/2/2025 8:01:17 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -3.92% | +1.96% |
| 8/29/2025 11:22:31 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | -3.13% | +3.13% |
| 8/28/2025 11:34:09 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -2.91% | +1.45% |
| 8/25/2025 11:30:06 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.26% | +2.63% |
| 8/25/2025 6:17:17 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +0.45% | -0.22% |
| 8/25/2025 6:17:17 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +0.45% | -0.22% |
| 8/22/2025 11:30:14 PM | short term down | 8 days later | +0.05% | -0.05% |
| 8/21/2025 6:30:30 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.52% | -0.26% |
| 8/13/2025 11:30:57 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.21% | -0.21% |
| 8/8/2025 11:30:04 PM | long term cautious down | 60 days later | -5.20% | +2.60% |
| 8/7/2025 11:35:19 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.82% | +0.91% |
| 7/30/2025 1:54:24 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.76% | -3.76% |
| 7/21/2025 11:30:17 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.45% | +0.73% |
| 7/16/2025 11:30:00 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -2.85% | -1.42% |
