Mike McGlone argues the US stock market is the last 'stud' asset, but it is overdue for a major correction that will trigger a deflationary recession. He sees precious metals, cryptos, and commodities as 'duds' that have already peaked. His endgame is a pump-and-dump pattern spreading to stocks, leading to a down year and a potential 50% drawdown. He recommends long bonds at 5% as the only buy.

Torsten Slok argues that AI-driven data center buildout, industrial onshoring, and the 'one big beautiful bill' tax cuts create powerful, Fed-independent tailwinds for US growth. This growth is inflationary, keeping rates higher for longer. Crucially, AI exposure now dominates both equity and bond markets, undermining traditional 60/40 diversification and creating a single-factor risk.

The deal is in line with expectations. It will take several months for oil supply to normalize. It does not change the economic outlook but shifts the risk balance, reducing downside risk. The Fed is expected to turn neutral and stay on hold through this year and next. Core inflation remains sticky, and financial conditions are accommodative. China's domestic demand is weak, while Japan's underlying inflation is building, supporting BOJ hikes.

The Iran interim MOU is facing conflicting timelines: Trump says it will be signed today, but Tehran signals delay. Key sticking points include the fate of highly enriched uranium (dilution vs. destruction), unfreezing $25 billion in assets, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. The leaked provisions suggest concessions may favor Iran, raising questions about whether this deal is better than the JCPOA. Qatar and Pakistan are key mediators.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a divided committee (hawks vs. those worried about stagflation) and political pressure from Trump to cut rates. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady, with the possibility of a hike later if inflation persists. Warsh's first press conference is critical for signaling his leadership style and the committee's direction. A potential end to the Iran war could reduce oil prices and lessen the chance of a rate hike.

The MOU reduces oil-driven inflation, allowing the Fed to hold rates and risk assets to rally. The dollar will soften as other central banks hike. AI trade remains strong but concentrated; Korea and Japan benefit from diversification.

The G7 summit is dominated by the Iran deal. European leaders' strategy of appeasing Trump has failed, and the US pulling fighter jets from Europe shows fragmentation. The summit's outcome is unpredictable due to Trump's style.

The G7 summit is dominated by the Iran war and the potential deal. European leaders, facing domestic political weakness, have abandoned the 'appeasement' strategy with Trump after it failed to guarantee results (e.g., US pulling fighter jets from Europe). The summit's agenda is fluid, dictated by whether a deal is reached. President Trump's unpredictability and focus on Iran will overshadow traditional G7 business.

Oliver Sloup analyzes December corn futures, identifying $4.40 as a critical support level that held after new contract lows were made. He believes the market is 'priced to perfection,' leaving underpriced upside risk. A recovery rally requires consecutive closes above $4.45, with $4.70 as a key decision point (50% retracement). Growing season uncertainty could provide catalysts.

Jack Lew discusses the urgent need to address Social Security's impending funding shortfall (2032-2034), emphasizing that a 22% benefit cut is unacceptable. He argues for bipartisan action combining revenue increases (e.g., raising the earnings cap) and modest benefit adjustments with long lead times, warning that inaction threatens overall fiscal health and trust in government.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright details how the US military is restoring oil flows from the Persian Gulf, diminishing Iran's leverage. He argues that Trump administration policies have kept energy prices lower than expected despite the conflict, and discusses the strategic goal of preventing a nuclear-armed Iran. He also touches on Venezuela, SPR refill, and the limitations of renewables for grid reliability.

Jim Bianco argues that interest rates should rise with a stronger economy and inflation, which is not inherently bad for equities. He expects a modest move higher in rates, but warns of a jump condition if the Fed appears dismissive of inflation or if crude oil prices spike sharply.

Camille de Cousel sees the ECB's July meeting as live but expects a move in September unless energy prices spike. She views the ECB's path as potentially more than two hikes, but not a full tightening cycle. For the Fed, she expects a move to symmetric bias next week, with three hikes starting December, and sees upside risks to yields across the curve.

Public markets can absorb the wave of mega-IPOs and lock-up expiries (up to $700B), netting against buybacks ($1.5T) and M&A. The narrative is shifting from 'private forever' as AI companies need massive capital. Private markets will remain a representation of the real economy, while public markets will represent tech and AI disruption. Power is the bottleneck, with a focus on transmission and distribution, not just generation.

Markets are climbing a wall of worry with geopolitics, IPOs, and rate hikes. Short-term strategy favors front-end investment grade credit for asymmetry. Gold is on pause but has double-digit upside long-term. AI remains a strong theme but revenue growth needs to materialize. ECB hike is likely a one-and-done, not start of a cycle.

ECB President Lagarde discusses May inflation rising to 3.2%, driven by energy prices. She notes that while wage growth should ease, firms face higher input costs. Energy price increases will keep inflation above target into H1 2027, with a return to target in H2 2027. Risks are to the upside due to the Middle East conflict and potential second-round effects.

ECB raised rates by 25bp unanimously to combat broadening inflation from energy shock, with risks to the upside. Growth forecast revised down slightly. Lagarde emphasized data-dependence, no pre-set path, and that the decision is robust across all scenarios including a milder one. Second-round effects not yet visible but wage projections included.

Ian Steely sees markets as well-behaved despite geopolitical shocks. He favors credit over Treasuries for yield, sees no recession risk, and expects the Fed to remain neutral. He sees opportunity in UK gilts and LatAm EM bonds, but is cautious on Asia due to energy exposure.

Ross Gerber, a SpaceX shareholder, views the IPO as a faith-based trade on Musk's vision. He advises retail investors to wait for lockup expirations and buy gradually. He believes a Tesla-SpaceX merger is inevitable and that SpaceX has better management than Tesla, making it more resilient to Musk's absence.

The post-pandemic economy is structurally different, driven by work-from-home, deglobalization, and increased geopolitical conflict, all creating persistent inflationary frictions.

Bruce Richards calls SpaceX the biggest rising star of all time, highlighting its refinancing of $17.5B high-yield debt at 12% to a $20B facility at ~4.6%, making it effectively net debt zero with an IG rating. He argues chip depreciation is overstated, sees strong demand for AI compute, and expects the Fed to hold rates despite inflation driven by energy supply issues.

The ECB delivered a widely anticipated 25bp rate hike, but the key focus is on forward guidance from Christine Lagarde. Inflation forecasts were revised up significantly (2026 from 2.6% to 3%), while GDP forecasts were trimmed slightly. The ECB appears more haunted by the 2022 inflation mistake than the 2011 tightening error, suggesting a hawkish bias despite data-dependent language.

Seema Shah notes that broad market sentiment is positive, helped by good news on the Iran war front, which takes away some fears. She feels irrelevant as a macro strategist given the SpaceX IPO. The fundamental picture is still supportive, allowing investors to be risk-on and look away from headlines. She also comments on the mixed client views on IPOs and the importance of the AI capex story and resilient consumer spending.

Ven Ram views the rally as short-term relief after a wobbly period. He warns that AI valuations are becoming stretched and frothy. The SpaceX IPO will be a liquidity event, but after that and other tech IPOs, a significant sell-off is possible. He also notes the ECB's hawkish stance and expects more rate hikes globally.

Bruce Richards discusses SpaceX's massive debt refinancing, reducing coupons from 12% to ~4.6%, and notes the company has no net debt with $80B+ cash. He views SpaceX as a strong IG credit with significant cash flow generation potential.

Larry Adam (Raymond James CIO) views the technology sector as the primary market driver, with oil being a sideshow. He expects geopolitical de-escalation, pushing oil to $75/barrel by year-end, which would ease inflation. He maintains his S&P 500 target of 7650, noting tech corrections are normal and rewarding for patient investors.

Julian Emanuel of Evercore ISI argues the bull market has room to run, driven by strong liquidity and a resilient economy, but warns that a persistent oil price shock above $4.50/gallon or triple-digit WTI is the biggest threat to the rally. He sees the current volatility as a digestion phase, with true FOMO still ahead.

Julian Emanuel sees the bull market as resilient with FOMO potentially ahead, but warns that a persistent oil price shock above $4.50/gallon or triple-digit WTI for 4 months is the biggest threat to the economy and stock market. He views the SpaceX IPO as a data point on the way to higher prices, not an endpoint.

Family offices remain constructive on equities, underpinned by strong earnings growth (24% this year, 13% next). They are not making meaningful portfolio shifts despite short-term volatility. AI infrastructure is a key theme, with over 80% of family offices adding AI exposure. They favor US assets but are diversifying into healthcare and bank stocks, and selectively into emerging markets.

Jay Woods argues the market has been shrugging off Middle East tensions because escalations quickly de-escalate. He sees the higher-for-longer oil narrative as the real inflationary issue ahead, but for now the focus is on tech and the SpaceX IPO.