David Rosenberg argues that the recent rise in bond yields is driven by real rates, not inflation expectations, which remain anchored. He believes the energy shock has not seeped into wages, and that core inflation is already below target when adjusted for energy-adjacent items. He sees the US consumer in a recession on the income side (real disposable income negative 1% YoY), propped up only by a falling savings rate and credit. He expects the Fed's next move to be a cut, not a hike, and that bond yields have peaked. He criticizes the ECB's rate hike as a policy mistake and views the Canadian economy as flat with a household debt crisis.

Torsten Slok discusses the Fed's hawkish dot plot (9 of 18 dots signaling a hike this year) and the dramatic drop in oil prices from $120 to below $80 in two months, which has significant disinflationary implications. He argues this justifies Kevin Warsh's reluctance to give forward guidance, as conditions change rapidly. On AI and labor, he sees a net positive effect on employment and productivity over the next 18 months, as cheaper technology enables record new business formations that outweigh displacement risks.

George Gatch says public markets are not dead, with tremendous enthusiasm around technology, space, and AI. He warns about concentration risk in US markets (top 10 S&P names = 40% of market, US = 60% of global). He recommends rebalancing into fixed income (yields at 4.4-6% with half the duration) and international/emerging markets. He sees opportunity in private credit given disruption in wealth management funds, and is building private credit capabilities within public market teams.

Bob Michele, CIO at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, discusses the hawkish surprise from new Fed Chair Warsh, who shifted to nine officials expecting a rate hike and raised inflation forecasts. Michele criticizes rolling back transparency, expects more volatility, but notes the bond market has already repriced into a 4.25%-4.625% trading range. He sees every meeting as live, inflation peaking in May, and corporate credit as attractive.

Erik Wytenus is positive on global equities, citing a sound economy and strong earnings growth led by the US. He sees the AI theme expanding into European enablers (power, data centers, industrials). He views the Fed's hawkish pivot under Kevin Warsh as a healthy restoration of credibility, which is bullish for the dollar but negative for precious metals. He advises looking through geopolitical noise and focusing on long-term private sector trends.

Bob Michael says the Fed's hawkish tilt is a real shot across the bow; half the committee expects rate hikes this year, making a hike possible given inflationary pressures from AI spending and the Iran war.

Isa Aoshi discusses the rotation from tech to cyclicals driven by the oil price collapse. He sees more upside in tech, particularly in AI data center supply chains shifting to lower-cost solutions like ASICs. Japan's factory automation sector is recovering. On China, he likes the semiconductor supply chain due to localization push. The BOJ should keep hiking as it's normalization, not inflation getting out of hand.

Bob Michele expects the Fed to hold rates and remove the easing bias. He sees the economy in good shape, not an environment for rate cuts. He believes Warsh will disappoint the president by not cutting, and that the market would be equally surprised by a hawkish or dovish tilt. He views the bond market as having already repriced and sees it in good shape.

Risk-on sentiment from avoided worst-case oil disruption. Oil to stay above $80 for a while. Market leadership should broaden from AI/tech to cyclicals (banks, industrials, consumer discretionary). Fed likely on hold; inflation expectations haven't risen. China's AI/semiconductor policy is a sector-level catalyst despite index underperformance.

Luke Gromen discusses a potential Fed playbook of cutting short rates, selling long bonds, and deregulating banks to steepen the curve and absorb Treasury supply, effectively QE-through-banks. He sees gold/oil ratio suggesting failure of non-dollar oil war, expects eventual inflationary boom, and advises watching weaker dollar, higher stocks, lower 10y yields, higher gold and Bitcoin as confirmation. He believes stocks will rise in dollar terms but fall in gold terms over time.

May PCE likely represents a local peak for inflation. Falling energy prices (Strait of Hormuz reopening) and fading tariff pass-through should drive disinflation from June onward. The Fed will stay on hold but a cut is possible next year if the labor market softens. Inflation dynamics are more structural than cyclical.

Kelsey Berro expects the Fed to stay on hold and remove the easing bias, with no dissenters. Core inflation stickiness is from supply shocks (energy, tariffs), not demand; wages and shelter are moderating. The bond rally is muted due to Fed event risk. If the Fed holds and the MOU deal holds, the market could rally this week. The balance sheet is about as small as it can be relative to GDP.

Torsten Slok discusses the potential for a major shift in Fed communication under new Chair Kevin Warsh, including possible removal of forward guidance and the dot plot. He argues this would effectively tighten policy even without rate hikes. While lower energy prices help, persistent core inflation and a strong labor market (AI boom, consumer spending) argue for a more hawkish stance. The key challenge is Warsh building consensus among FOMC members.

Torsten Slok expects Kevin Warsh to simplify Fed communication, possibly removing forward guidance and dot plot, which could be implicitly hawkish. He notes sticky inflation (3% core CPI) and strong economy (AI boom, IRA tailwinds, tariffs) argue against easing. Iran deal helps via lower energy prices but doesn't solve underlying inflation.

Mark Haefele (UBS CIO) sees the Fed staying on hold, which is positive for equities. AI capex is approaching $1tn by 2028 with no signs of abatement, supporting an S&P 500 target of 8200 by mid-2026. The interim US-Iran deal has eased oil risk, and oil can fall further as the Strait of Hormuz reopens. He warns of high equity concentration in AI names and urges diversification into North Asia and other regions.

Iran-US deal reduces worst-case oil disruption risk, enabling risk-on sentiment and potential rotation beyond AI/tech into cyclicals like financials and industrials. Tech enthusiasm high but valuations stretched; investors rotating from AI model companies to semiconductors. Korea and Taiwan fundamentals still robust with single-digit P/E ratios.

Vice President Vance argues the U.S.-Iran MOU is a win-win: Iran's nuclear program is destroyed, the Strait of Hormuz is open, oil prices are falling, and gas is below $4. Iran gets no benefits unless it verifiably changes behavior. The U.S. retains full leverage. He criticizes Israeli cabinet members attacking the deal, defends the administration's position, and notes Gulf Arab allies support the framework.

Bank of America India CEO Vikram Sahu says India is not completely out of the woods despite the US-Iran peace deal. Valuations have corrected from two standard deviations above historical averages to in line, but at 20-21 times, India is not cheap enough yet. Corporate earnings have still not bottomed out. However, investor interest remains strong—30% more investors attended BofA's India conference. The government's reform momentum (more bilateral trade deals in 6 months than in prior 10 years) is a key positive. AI's impact on IT services remains the big unanswered question.

Jim Bianco expects the Fed to hike at least once more (likely October), pushing the 10-year yield toward 5% by year-end. He sees inflation as persistent (core PCE ~3.4%), justifying tightening. Equities are bifurcated: AI stocks (48% of S&P) drive headline returns but are highly volatile and early in a hype cycle; non-AI stocks offer steadier performance. Bonds are no longer in a secular bull but now yield ~5%, making them acceptable. Oil is pressured by reopened Strait of Hormuz and global tightening. Crypto is near a trough of disillusionment but has real use cases (stablecoins in emerging markets).

Goldman Sachs expects WTI to stay near $75 by year-end and moderate to $70 in 2027, assuming a rapid recovery of Middle Eastern exports (by end of July) and production (by October). Saudi Arabia and UAE have spare capacity and will stabilize markets. Upside risk remains due to uncertainty about the Strait staying open; downside risk from potential lingering demand losses.

New Fed Chair Warsh dropped forward guidance, emphasized strict 2% inflation target, and 9 of 19 FOMC members see rate hikes by year-end. Sri-Kumar agrees with market pricing of multiple 25bp hikes, citing persistent inflation from Iran war oil pass-through and lags from prior easing. He expects QT delayed, more confusion/volatility as FOMC members speak freely, a flattening yield curve at higher absolute levels, and stagflation risks emerging by 2027. Recommends short-duration bonds, energy and value equities, and real estate at higher cap rates.

May PCE expected to show 4.1% headline, 3.4% core—still well above target. Disinflation likely from June onward due to falling energy prices (Strait of Hormuz reopening) and fading tariff pass-through. Fed remains hawkish on price stability, but structural factors (concentrated hiring, weak housing) keep door open for a cut next year, depending on labor market trajectory.

Robert Kaplan discusses the Fed's new leadership under Kevin Warsh, predicting a shift away from forward guidance (dot plot) toward patience and flexibility. He highlights a structural AI-driven CapEx boom causing sticky inflation, offset by potential disinflation from oil price declines and AI adoption. He sees the Fed as likely to hold rates steady to assess the impact of lower oil prices on inflation.

Torsten Slok argues the US economy is 'running pretty hot' with strong employment and inflation above 2%. He sees broadening inflation pressures from energy, tariffs, and AI-driven capex (data centers, chips, labor). The Fed will hold rates but needs flexibility. He warns software is hit by a 'double whammy' of AI disruption risk and high debt/low coverage ratios, making it vulnerable in a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Torsten Slok (Apollo) argues the US economy remains very strong across consumer metrics (air travel, hotels, restaurants, Statue of Liberty visits). Falling oil prices are a welcome tailwind but may boost demand and keep core inflation sticky near 3%. AI spending boom and tax cuts (One Beautiful Bill) add further growth tailwinds. Front-end rates have fallen as markets price out hikes, but long rates are sticky. Fed's Warsh likely to be cautious and data-dependent. Overall, inflation is becoming more 'transitory' on energy, but core inflation remains a challenge.

Ella Gude, head of fixed income at BNY, argues that the removal of the extreme tail risk of an oil spike allows European bonds to take a breather and frees the ECB from its hawkish stance. She notes the Burnham win was largely priced into gilts. On FX, she sees the dollar in a rebound environment, keeping GBP rangebound near the bottom of its yearly range, while the yen remains under pressure as the BOJ is behind the curve.

Torsten Slok of Apollo argues that if the Fed chair reduces forward guidance (removes dot-plot/SEP or speaks less), markets lose an anchor and the residual easing bias disappears — effectively a more hawkish posture. Additionally, emphasizing a smaller balance sheet (QT) acts like tightening. With core inflation ~3% and very strong high-frequency consumption and labor indicators (travel, retail, hotels) there are few signs of slowing, so policy should lean tighter despite lower energy prices. Thus communication changes plus balance-sheet focus point toward upward pressure on yields and a more constrained equity environment.

The interviewee expects the yield curve to flatten as the Fed remains committed to raising rates to fight inflation. Front-end yields will rise, while long-end yields hold steady or rise only slightly, causing the curve to flatten.

Lael Brainard analyzes Kevin Warsh's first FOMC press conference, noting he avoided forward guidance and let the dot plot signal hawkishness (half of members see rate hikes). She identifies new upside inflation risks from the Strait of Hormuz reopening (slow to ease oil prices) and near-term AI-driven demand (data centers, chips) that will lift core inflation through year-end, though AI could become disinflationary via productivity gains. She would be cautious about insisting the Fed get inflation back to 2% given five years above target.

Stuart Paul was surprised by the dovish FOMC statement (focus on supply-side factors) but notes the dot plot was very hawkish. He believes Warsh focused entirely on price stability, not the dual mandate. He argues that removing forward guidance is appropriate when risks are two-sided, and that the Fed is not worried about losing control of the narrative. He sees AI productivity gains as overstated.