Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari states the Fed's job is to get inflation back to 2%, but it's complicated by supply shocks (tariffs, energy, data center investment). He penciled in one rate hike by year-end, changing from a prior cut. He notes the labor market is 'treading water' and not driving inflation, which is instead supply-driven.

explicit
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals

implicit
Federal Reserve 9.0
Central Bank
Neil Kashkari 8.5
Fed's inflation fight and labor market (with Lisa Abramovitz)
6/26/2026 9:43:11 PM
dxy
A hawkish pivot (from a cut to a hike) and cautious outlook on geopolitical risks (Iran) would typically support the US dollar in the near term.
yields
In June, I've changed that to one rate hike by the end of the year.
167 calls
-+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
5/28/2026 9:19:50 PM medium term up 20 days later -0.04% -0.04%
5/26/2026 3:37:50 PM short term up 5 days later -0.13% -0.13%
5/22/2026 9:31:07 PM medium term cautious up 22 days later -1.95% -0.98%
5/22/2026 5:45:12 PM medium term sharp up 22 days later -1.95% -2.93%
5/19/2026 7:30:09 PM short term down 5 days later -0.31% +0.31%
5/18/2026 4:30:56 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.46% +1.23%
5/15/2026 9:33:59 PM medium term sharp up 21 days later -1.54% -2.30%
5/14/2026 3:58:16 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.57% +1.28%
5/6/2026 9:31:19 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +1.62% +0.81%
4/29/2026 9:59:50 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +0.59% +0.30%
4/22/2026 1:15:04 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.65% +1.83%
4/21/2026 10:49:31 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +0.98% +0.49%
4/21/2026 9:02:49 PM short term up 5 days later +0.98% +0.98%
4/16/2026 4:46:20 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.44% +1.72%
4/1/2026 10:00:00 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.44% +0.22%
3/30/2026 9:16:07 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.41% +0.71%
3/18/2026 11:29:30 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.23% +0.12%
3/18/2026 8:57:23 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.23% -0.12%
3/6/2026 6:25:25 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +3.68% +1.84%
3/5/2026 10:19:45 AM medium term down 20 days later +6.85% -6.85%
3/4/2026 2:04:00 PM medium term up 20 days later +4.39% +4.39%
2/25/2026 12:14:44 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +6.02% -3.01%
2/24/2026 5:28:52 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +3.80% -1.90%
1/31/2026 1:39:54 AM short term cautious down 7 days later -1.80% +0.90%
1/30/2026 4:06:49 PM short term up 7 days later -1.80% -1.80%
1/21/2026 10:03:18 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.81% -0.91%
1/15/2026 8:49:33 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.50% +0.25%
1/15/2026 4:20:34 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.50% +0.25%
1/15/2026 12:26:20 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.52% -0.26%
1/13/2026 2:09:12 AM short term up 5 days later +2.20% +2.20%
1/8/2026 11:18:05 PM medium term down 20 days later +1.34% -1.34%
1/8/2026 5:00:02 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +1.34% -0.67%
12/23/2025 1:43:04 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.85% -0.42%
12/22/2025 6:49:39 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -1.27% +0.64%
12/19/2025 4:38:22 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later +0.43% -0.22%
12/17/2025 4:02:54 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.53% -0.27%
12/12/2025 11:35:37 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -0.41% +0.20%
12/12/2025 7:30:18 PM long term cautious down 60 days later -3.01% +1.51%
12/12/2025 4:27:07 PM long term cautious down 60 days later -3.01% +1.51%
12/11/2025 8:07:07 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -0.17% +0.08%
12/10/2025 11:45:00 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.19% -0.10%
12/10/2025 10:06:22 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.19% -0.10%
12/10/2025 9:59:59 PM short term down 5 days later +0.19% -0.19%
12/10/2025 9:58:25 PM short term down 5 days later +0.19% -0.19%
12/8/2025 4:22:22 PM short term down 6 days later -0.10% +0.10%
11/25/2025 1:10:38 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.45% -1.23%
11/25/2025 10:11:27 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.45% -1.23%
11/21/2025 4:18:30 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later +3.57% -1.78%
11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM short term down 5 days later -2.30% +2.30%
11/10/2025 7:15:17 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.58% +0.29%
11/7/2025 10:50:35 PM medium term down 21 days later -0.34% +0.34%
11/4/2025 2:28:09 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.13% +0.57%
11/4/2025 2:28:09 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.13% +0.57%
11/3/2025 7:15:45 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.51% -0.26%
11/3/2025 5:15:56 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.25% -0.62%
11/3/2025 3:04:15 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.25% +0.62%
10/30/2025 5:30:59 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.12% -0.06%
10/30/2025 1:30:10 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.37% -0.68%
10/30/2025 1:00:07 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.37% -0.68%
10/29/2025 11:38:10 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 10:44:00 PM short term down 5 days later -0.10% +0.10%
10/29/2025 10:11:32 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 10:00:33 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.98% -0.49%
10/29/2025 9:40:37 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.98% -0.49%
10/29/2025 9:34:46 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 9:30:01 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 9:19:58 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.98% +0.49%
10/29/2025 9:15:22 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.98% -0.49%
10/29/2025 9:15:00 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.98% +0.49%
10/29/2025 9:08:09 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.10% -0.05%
10/29/2025 9:05:01 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.98% -0.49%
10/29/2025 9:02:24 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/29/2025 8:57:22 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/27/2025 1:59:40 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +3.09% -1.54%
10/24/2025 8:55:32 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later +3.40% -1.70%
10/16/2025 6:04:41 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.35% +0.67%
10/16/2025 4:52:44 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +2.15% -1.07%
10/16/2025 4:01:47 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +2.15% -1.07%
10/15/2025 9:05:27 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +4.55% -2.28%
10/15/2025 8:00:24 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +4.55% -2.28%
10/15/2025 5:49:02 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.33% +0.16%
10/15/2025 1:03:55 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -0.33% +0.49%
10/15/2025 12:59:00 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -0.33% +0.49%
10/14/2025 11:49:39 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.06% +0.53%
10/14/2025 10:05:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.48% +0.74%
10/14/2025 9:31:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +1.06% -0.53%
10/14/2025 9:15:03 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.06% +0.53%
10/14/2025 7:56:12 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.06% +0.53%
10/10/2025 6:15:07 PM medium term cautious down 22 days later +1.36% -0.68%
10/3/2025 6:45:12 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later -3.96% -1.98%
10/3/2025 5:48:20 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -3.96% +1.98%
10/3/2025 5:24:31 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -3.96% +1.98%
9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.36% -0.68%
9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.36% -0.68%
9/29/2025 4:51:12 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -3.91% -1.95%
9/26/2025 3:41:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.24% +1.62%
9/26/2025 7:55:36 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.24% +1.62%
9/25/2025 9:08:46 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.04% +2.52%
9/25/2025 6:06:52 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.04% +2.52%
9/25/2025 4:23:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.04% +2.52%
9/25/2025 2:39:06 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.93% +0.97%
9/23/2025 8:17:55 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.14% +0.07%
9/23/2025 4:45:06 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.14% +0.07%
9/23/2025 4:21:15 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.01% +1.51%
9/22/2025 10:12:27 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.51% -0.25%
9/22/2025 7:01:00 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.51% -0.25%
9/19/2025 7:19:43 PM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.05% +0.02%
9/19/2025 5:36:26 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -2.22% -1.11%
9/19/2025 4:18:23 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.22% +1.11%
9/19/2025 4:05:04 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.22% +1.11%
9/19/2025 3:30:59 PM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.05% +0.02%
9/18/2025 11:18:42 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.22% -0.11%
9/18/2025 2:13:16 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.19% -0.10%
9/18/2025 2:00:01 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.22% -0.11%
9/17/2025 11:14:58 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.61% +0.30%
9/17/2025 10:48:21 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:45:01 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:16:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:12:22 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.61% -0.30%
9/17/2025 10:09:39 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:03:46 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:00:17 PM short term down 5 days later +0.39% -0.39%
9/16/2025 3:38:44 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.64% -0.82%
9/16/2025 3:30:44 PM short term down 5 days later +1.64% -1.64%
9/15/2025 4:08:28 PM short term down 6 days later +2.91% -2.91%
9/12/2025 2:49:43 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +2.70% -1.35%
9/10/2025 2:40:48 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/8/2025 3:31:50 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -0.98% +0.49%
9/4/2025 5:58:21 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +2.10% +1.05%
9/3/2025 5:47:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.69% +0.35%
9/3/2025 5:46:57 PM medium term sharp down 20 days later -0.69% +1.04%
9/3/2025 4:33:59 PM short term down 5 days later -2.44% +2.44%
9/3/2025 4:33:52 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.44% +1.22%
8/29/2025 4:29:23 PM short term cautious up 6 days later -5.40% -2.70%
8/29/2025 2:20:50 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 2:11:04 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 10:48:16 AM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 10:10:30 AM short term down 6 days later -5.40% +5.40%
8/29/2025 2:27:21 AM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/28/2025 2:23:04 PM long term up 60 days later -5.77% -5.77%
8/27/2025 5:54:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.11% +1.56%
8/27/2025 4:26:23 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.11% +1.56%
8/26/2025 6:50:08 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -5.00% -2.50%
8/26/2025 8:42:05 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/25/2025 5:57:59 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.26% +2.63%
8/25/2025 8:38:14 AM short term cautious down 7 days later +0.45% -0.22%
8/22/2025 11:32:42 PM short term down 8 days later +0.05% -0.05%
8/22/2025 9:51:01 PM short term cautious down 8 days later +0.05% -0.02%
8/22/2025 8:49:41 PM short term cautious down 8 days later +0.05% -0.02%
8/22/2025 8:13:21 PM short term cautious down 8 days later +0.05% -0.02%
8/20/2025 4:24:10 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -1.66% -0.83%
8/15/2025 8:22:39 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later -6.80% -3.40%
8/15/2025 4:22:33 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later -6.80% -3.40%
8/14/2025 11:48:29 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.74% +0.37%
8/14/2025 6:32:32 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -3.51% -1.76%
8/12/2025 11:45:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/12/2025 11:24:12 PM medium term sharp down 20 days later +0.92% -1.38%
8/12/2025 4:25:35 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/12/2025 7:46:47 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.43% -1.22%
8/7/2025 7:17:58 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.82% +0.91%
8/7/2025 6:16:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.10% +0.55%
8/7/2025 5:34:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.82% +0.91%
8/6/2025 4:32:08 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.14% +0.07%
8/6/2025 4:30:01 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.14% +0.07%
7/30/2025 11:06:39 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.47% -0.73%
7/30/2025 9:54:37 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.47% -0.73%
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