ndx

Our target's 7800, that's the base case for 2026... we're seeing a broadening out in the earnings story, and we should see a broadening out in the equity story as a result of that. Based on rolling recovery from policy changes, investment cycle strength, and tremendous earnings revision breadth supporting higher equity prices despite valuation concerns.

yields

We're likely going to see, therefore, rates stay a little bit higher for longer. They're going to come down, but they're going to stay higher for longer than what we've seen historically. The forecast is based on inflation peaking mid-next year but remaining above the Fed's target, leading to a 'higher for longer' rate environment.

metals

this is even more positive for gold rather than crypto... the proper... hedge... is probably much more in precious metals rather than crypto Relative preference over crypto due to lower volatility and regulatory concerns; framed as hedge, not outright bullish call.

ndx

that really should mean all clear for a year end rally... Absolutely 100% [risk-on] Positioning signals in buy territory, Fed supportive, dip is non-fundamental.

yields

rates to come down in the US to around 3% by the middle of next year Expected decline in interest rates coupled with economic growth and dollar moderation supports risk assets

metals

We still have a now look that's this pretty positive on the metals Acknowledges metals will be volatile too but maintains positive outlook as part of rotation strategy

ndx

I think the market looks pretty good, at least for the next four or five months Seasonally strong period, Fed cutting rates, earnings increasing, productivity and margins increasing

yields

most likely a Fed cut in December... corporate bond rates have come down Fed funds futures showing 86% chance of cut, comments from Fed governors suggest easing

dxy

Dollar kind of anchoring around this 100 level and dropping a bit below it Linked to Fed rate cut expectations and gold's advance due to weaker dollar

metals

Platinum has risen about 75% here, silver up 70% year-to-date, gold up 55% year-to-date with continued bullish momentum Driven by Chinese demand, supply disruptions, new futures contracts, and structural support from central banks and ETFs

yields

10-year Treasury yields dropped from about 4.14% back down to 4% here Based on Fed rate cut expectations and observed price action

yields

We might start to see that push to 2.75 to 2.50 Labor market weakening despite rates at 3% anchor level, expressing via curve flattening positions

metals

nearly 20% of additional price upside by the end of 26 with our forecast at $4,900 per troy ounce by the end of 26 Central bank diversification post-Russia sanctions, Fed rate cuts boosting ETF inflows, potential private sector diversification in small gold market relative to bond markets

rut

Russell 2000 is an indicator of small caps is up something like close to 10% this year... when it was likely that the Fed was going to cut, that's when you saw small caps take off Sees continued opportunity in small caps due to Fed cuts, valuation, and AI innovation in niche markets

yields

The rates on the longer end of the maturity spectrum, those 10s, 20s and 30s, we think those yield stay firm or even rise a little bit Expectation of steady to higher long-term rates supports financials thesis

ndx

Equities probably shows the most potential for upside. I don't think we're priced really for what I would expect in 2026 to be more of a broadening of the market. The other 493, not just the Mag 7 Expects market broadening beyond tech megacaps to drive equity gains in 2026, with economic recovery and reduced headwinds supporting overall market upside

ndx

they're going to continue to power the market higher Based on Nvidia's strong earnings and guidance as largest cap stock, with AI theme dominating market focus

metals

Gold being bought as diversifier people have confidence in aside from fixed income, precious metals remain in portfolios due to uncertainty and risk concerns

ndx

December could be an up month Based on strong fundamentals, rate cut expectations, earnings growth, and AI productivity gains, but tempered by major downside risks and uncertainty

ndx

We raise our S&P 500 price target to 7800 driven by strong earnings growth. We believe that we're in the midst of a new bull market and earnings cycle AI investment driving productivity gains, broadening earnings cycle, and 7800 S&P target imply continued upward trajectory for tech-heavy indices

ndx

We think we're gonna end next year around 7800. So quite a bit of upside still, for large caps ahead Maintains bullish outlook on large cap tech despite near-term choppiness, sees continued AI-driven growth

rut

We actually recently upgraded small caps, overweight versus large caps. We do think that there is going to be more risk appetite as we get into the first part of next year Expects rotation into small caps due to improved earnings revisions and transition from rolling recession to rolling recovery

yields

our economists think that we're going to get a dovish pause in September and we'll have three cuts in next year Expectation of Fed easing policy with multiple rate cuts indicates downward pressure on yields

yields

10 and 30 year yields are higher now than when Fed funds were over 5%, so for all this easing the long end isn't really responding at all Persistent inflation pressures and Fed lack of control over long end suggest continued upward pressure

dxy

If US interest rates are indeed headed lower, if US bond yields are headed lower, then we still think that will go for a gradually weaker dollar. That's unlikely to change. Maintains structural bearish USD view based on interest rate differentials and long-term de-dollarization trends

metals

Gold is being part of that... It's negatively correlated. It does very well in such bubbles... I would rather be short debt in a sense Dalio explicitly recommends gold as hedge against government debt problems and sees it performing well during bubble periods

dxy

Positioned bearishly on euro currency anticipating dollar strength if Fed unable to cut rates in December, with clients holding put options/short futures on EUR, GBP, JPY

metals

we could hit $5,000 an ounce in 2026... outlook remains incredibly optimistic Structural drivers including central bank buying, ETF flows, portfolio diversification, and eventual Fed easing in 2026 supporting multi-year bullish thesis

ndx

NASDAQ up about 1.5% Rotation into mega-cap tech as investors chase performance

yields

rising 10-year Treasury yields here up at 4.14%... 10-year note under just a bit of pressure Reduced probability of December rate cut supporting higher yields

ndx

Earnings revisions are just phenomenally strong. The runway to next year in terms of earnings growth is great. Our 7750 price target is likely not going to imply any multiple expansion Despite current volatility and debt concerns, maintains bullish S&P 7750 target based on strong earnings growth fundamentals

dxy

Dollar in structural decline - FX reserves 65% in USD but US economy only 25% of global economy, 13% of global trade Sees structural pressure on dollar as global trade shifts away from dollar dominance

yields

Fed neutral rate around 300bps, we're still at 400bps, so they have potential to cut below 300bps to become stimulative Expects Fed to continue cutting rates to reach neutral level, which would push yields lower

metals

I think gold is going to be bigger than the dollar in global FX reserves within 2 to 3 years Fiscal dominance makes treasuries unsuitable as reserve assets; central bank gold buying accelerating; commodity markets much larger than gold will bid prices higher; gold already surpassed treasuries in reserves

yields

without sending 10-year Treasury yields to rates that I estimate to be somewhere between 4.6 and 4.8% which would start to trigger equity volatility Structural deficits and inability to term out debt without yield pressure; treadmill problem forces bill issuance but creates upward pressure on longer yields

ndx

I think this is a buying opportunity. I don't think this is a change in trend Expects 2026 GDP growth and productivity gains from tech investment to support earnings

yields

I expect them to cut 25 basis points Based on Phillips curve framework showing rising unemployment and falling wage inflation

yields

I would cut and I would have started cutting in July Believes Fed should be cutting rates due to productivity boom potential and to avoid derailing growth

metals

I've been putting new money to work for the last five days in most markets that you can imagine. Whether it's gold, precious metals Actively buying metals currently; mentions gold up 65% and maintains 5-10% portfolio allocation to commodities including gold, palladium, silver

ndx

Left there feeling more bullish than I even came in; if you truly believe in how transformational this will be and how early we are Distinguishes AI as technological supercycle not bubble, cites reasonable valuations (30-32x vs historical 80x), fewer public companies, and massive private capital seeking AI exposure

yields

We certainly do because the short end coming down looking through over the next 12 months Expects yield curve steepening with short-term rates declining while long end may rise, creating uncertainty that takes froth out of equity markets

ndx

we're looking for a higher market next year Base case 7300 by June 2026, could go as high as 8000, driven by technological innovation and fiscal developments

wti

price of oil go down to $58 a barrel Affects every single thing we have, haven't fully processed by marketplace, will see prices come down and stabilize

yields

we have the Fed on the track to lower interest rates Fed can lower due to weakness in labor and lack of new data during government shutdown

dxy

States dollar recoupled with interest rates and will stay stronger if US rates trend higher as he expects, following three-phase pattern of tracking rates, decoupling, then recoupling

metals

Gold is going to have a... it has had a fantastic year. It's up almost 60%... I think it's going to continue to perform very well. Gold is a hedge against something going wrong Cites political tensions, wars, inflation risks as reasons for gold's continued performance, recommends small position as warranted

ndx

Describes market as dominated by retail investors driving 17% returns mostly from AI stocks, with only 4-5% from everything else, suggesting concentration risk and potential for digestion phase

yields

I'm still of the opinion that we're in a long term secular rise in interest rates... once we break out of this long sideways action that we've been in for two years, then it'll probably be higher on the back of economic strength and on the back of stickier or uncomfortable inflation References hitting 5% in 2023 and current ~4% levels, sees inflation running 3-3.5% vs Fed target of 2% as problematic for bond market

ndx

government reopening and Christmas rally to drive markets higher, optimistic on tech trade, buying opportunities on pullbacks Bullish on large cap tech/Mag Seven, sees earnings strength, AI investments as early innings, rate cuts supportive for tech

yields

They cut rates in September on a risk management consideration; the Fed can cut more if the economy slows Labor market slowing due to demand; inflation steady but elevated; Fed's rate decisions reflect balancing inflation risk and labor market risks

dxy

The dollar has been on a pretty good run over a long period of time and it's certainly given back this year given some of the policy actions some of the gains. But the dollar is the reserve currency of the world. I don't see anything at the moment that threatens that. Despite recent depreciation, the speaker believes the dollar's fundamental reserve currency status is intact, and the recent decline is an appropriate adjustment rather than a sign of structural weakness.

yields

If the UK Chancellor can make a bigger fiscal buffer at this budget, it could make the 10-year gilt yield fall 50 basis points. We expect a structural surplus to calm the market and reduce yields. Political instability currently weighs on gilt yields but credible budget delivery and fiscal surplus could reduce market risk premium, leading to lower yields in the short term.

metals

Precious metals continue to surge overnight. Gold reached an intraday high and trading around $4132, eyeing a new 52-week high. Silver is stronger with its fourth highest close in history, up nearly 6% in the last three sessions. Elevated volatility, supportive technical indicators, ETF flows, and market speculation are driving a sharp short-term upward movement in precious metals.

ndx

It is likely to be a volatile ride. AI growth story is positive but investor nervousness and valuation concerns lead to expected volatility.

ndx

We're targeting 7100 by year end this year. I think everything's going to rally. Seasonality factors, bigger tax refunds, positive earnings, government reopening potential, and an ongoing AI CapEx cycle support a bullish market outlook.

ndx

The Nasdaq composite down 42 points but well off its worst levels of the session. Nvidia shares down 2.6% after SoftBank sold its entire stake, contributing to tech weakness. Rotation out of high valued tech names and concerns about AI bubble show short-term pressure on Nasdaq.

yields

Inflation is 3% this year, 3% last year. Underlying inflation is probably slowing. The Fed should continue to cut interest rates here. Unemployment rate is increasing ahead of schedule indicating weakening labor market and downside risk to growth; inflation is stable or slowing, supporting rate cuts.

ndx

This is very much a SoftBank thing not some kind of doubt about Nvidia or Nvidia's place in the AI buildout. SoftBank’s sale is seen as financing rather than fundamental concerns; short-term market jitters but longer-term Nvidia importance intact.

metals

Copper prices rose from $5,000 to $11,000 in a steady upward trend since 2020; forecast target is around $15,000 per ton over 2-3 years. Physical supply constraints and high CapEx spending behind continued price increases in base and precious metals through the decade. Physical bottlenecks in supply chains, long supply timelines, and increasing demand driven by energy transition and investment will continue to push metal prices sharply higher in the long term.

wti

Refined product prices have dislocated to the upside relative to crude. Refineries coming back online by end of year will translate product price upside into oil price. The broader commodity complex is moving, crude oil is moving. Capacity constraints in refining limit crude price rise currently; as refinery capacity normalizes, oil prices should rise moderately over the medium term.

ndx

SoftBank selling NVIDIA stake is for capital raising to invest in AI, not risk aversion; ongoing massive investments in AI and tech. Despite some profit taking, continued large investments indicate positive but cautious market direction for AI-related stocks like those in Nasdaq over short term.

metals

We are still happy to buy gold, palladium, silver; gold buying is high this year catalyzed by distrust in U.S. government and related factors. Precious metals benefit from safe haven demand amid distrust in government and economic uncertainty.

yields

We're starting to see yields move up a little bit because, you know, ending the shutdown means you pick up an economic activity... Economic activity is expected to increase after the government shutdown ends, leading to upward pressure on yields in the short term.

ndx

The NASDAQ shows weakness with tech leading declines and is on track for worst week since April. Market participants reacting to valuation concerns and mixed economic data are favoring downside risk for Nasdaq in the short term.

yields

We have reduced interest rate sensitivity, pulled some from the front end of the yield curve, focusing on carry and lower duration. The funds rate could move slightly lower from current break even levels. Due to sticky inflation and moderating employment, central banks are likely to pause and possibly lower rates slightly, leading to cautious down yields in the medium term.

yields

I think the Fed will cut in December. There's about a 70% chance of that baked into the futures market right now... The problems the American economy are facing are really not ones the Federal Reserve can fix and I think the Fed knows that. Labor market is softening, economic slowdown is ongoing, and government shutdown is worsening damage. Fed cuts are expected but are limited in ability to fix broader economic issues.